Osama Bin Laden is Dead

[Mrs.Lucysnow]

You can perhaps see where it's kinda screwy to start from a position that an unsubstantiated rumor is true, and then demand a factual explanation for its implications. The implied standard of evidence there is stilted on its face - it's only useful as a tactic for browbeating people who don't notice the ridiculously selective application of skepticism.

Well of course not. Who could be skeptical of a news report coming out of Pakistan in 2002 that was never fully investigated? Why would she doubt a version of reality that is OBVIOUS even though there was no:


1. There is no body

2. There is no independent observer who can claim to have seen the body

3. There is no independent observer who has seen bin Laden in (....)

4. There is no proof of life or death

 

[nietzschefan]

Well of course not. Who could be skeptical of a news report coming out of Pakistan in 2002 that was never fully investigated? Why would she doubt a version of reality that is OBVIOUS even though there was no:


1. There is no body

2. There is no independent observer who can claim to have seen the body

3. There is no independent observer who has seen bin Laden in (....)

4. There is no proof of life or death

And we have all that shit this time? lol

 

[Trippy]

You can perhaps see where it's kinda screwy to start from a position that an unsubstantiated rumor is true, and then demand a factual explanation for its implications.

There's no perhaps about it.

My apologies if I've misunderstood anything you've said, however, it was never supposed to imply that I personally believe that - If I did I would have prefaced the sentence with "I believe that..." or something along those lines.

I don't, and I wasn't espousing my point of view. It's not a statement that I personally, hold to be true, nor was it (intended to be) presented as such.

My point was purely and simply that if one accepts the proposition that Bin Laden was on deaths door in 2002 then what I suggested flows almost as a natural explanation of the events since then, and provides a natural explanation if you're also inclined to accept the allegations that the later videos were all fakes.

The acceptance of my statements as a factual account of events is predicated on the acceptance of two seperate suggestions, as facts, that I do not hold as facts. It simply struck me as being more plausable than the idea of some soopa secret shadowy organization with its origins in Bavaria that only allows world events to play out according to a pre-written script.

It is both my curse and my gift that I can entertain a line of thought (or an idea) without actually accepting it (even one that is morally or idealogically repugnant to me).

 

[S.A.M.]

@Sam

What are you ignoring me?:shrug:

Scared?

I'm not ignoring you, I simply don't know what you are talking about

Like here:

Why you know of many Westerner's who go to Pakistan unless they absolutely have to? Its hardly the destination spot of the East.

I mean, who cares what westerners think of Pakistan or whether they come to Abbottabad? Just Pakistanis will make up a substantial quantity of tourists to the OBL site.

Most of your other comments are also similarly incomprehensible so instead of going off on tangents I decided to only respond to the ones that focus on what I am debating i.e. the lack of any concrete proof in all this

Reuters wrote the headline, not me - you may have noticed that in both cases I simply copied and pasted the headlines of the articles as the link titles.

Also, you seem to be under the impression that I linked to it because it proved something, I didn't, I linked to it, because, for a number of reasons, I found it mildly amusing.

Okay I wasn't implying that you were intimating something, just that his tweets only recounted the explosion he heard, the shots and grenades - not anything specific about the participants

 

[ElectricFetus]

Hey SAM they found Osama wife, she was not killed defending her husband but rather was shot in a completely different part of the complex. What was that you were saying about how Muslim wives defender their husbands unlike American wives?

 

[quadraphonics]

I'm not asserting any credibility here. You are free to take all the statements for what they are worth

Which, according to your own assessment of credibility, is exactly nothing.

But that doesn't really add up. There's no reason whatsoever for you to bother advancing any assertions here if you genuinely forswear credibility.

1. There is no body

You can't prove that - it's an existential negative.

Is that even what you mean? Shouldn't you be asserting that nobody claims to currently have possession of the body?

How do we know that Obama wasn't lieing about that, and that he doesn't have Bin Laden's body in a freezer somewhere?

2. There is no independent observer who can claim to have seen the body

Independent of what? There are supposed to be multiple people who were present and saw the body in question, apart from the US forces.

3. There is no independent observer who has seen bin Laden in Abbottabad

Again, independent of what? And isn't that exactly what one would expect, supposing the official account is more-or-less accurate? That he was in hiding, and making very sure that nobody saw him there?

4. There is no proof of life or death

Define "proof."

There is evidence of such. Whether such rises to some standard of "proof," depends on what the standard in question is.

These facts stand by themselves

#4 is not any kind of fact, but an opinion that begs the question of the implied standard of proof.

1. A crashed helicopter which locals claim is Pakistani and Americans claim is American

So?

Whence the presumption that "locals" are reliable estimators of the origins of helicopters? Or that the USA wouldn't have used helicopters that appear to be Pakistani in such an operation? Or that Pakistan doesn't have helicopters of similar make and model to America to begin with?

The crashed American helicopter is supposed to have been destroyed at the time, presumably by high-explosive charges. Such being standard procedure when leaving behind military equipment in hostile areas. So whence the presumption that it was readily identifiable, or that said "locals" don't have some reason to mislead? How to we know that there weren't two separate helicopter crashes?

2. Pictures of a house raided with what look like blood stains

Which would be consistent with the official story - and a liability to release, if the official story is significantly false.

In fact EVERY single person connected with the case is either missing or anonymous or in custody or dead.

Which is exactly what one would expect, if the official story is correct, no?

And what about all of the other things we have seen or been told? Surely the statements of parties to this episode figure as evidence, even if one is inclined to discount them.

Moreover, what is the point of this list? Is there some lack of appreciation for what facts are and are not directly available, or something? Is this supposed to suggest anything one way or another about anything?

 

[quadraphonics]

My point was purely and simply that if one accepts the proposition that Bin Laden was on deaths door in 2002 then what I suggested flows almost as a natural explanation of the events since then, and provides a natural explanation if you're also inclined to accept the allegations that the later videos were all fakes.

Of course. Any good conspiracy theory starts with some premises that, once you accept them, result in a more-or-less self-sealing worldview that becomes impervious to new facts. They can all be subsumed one way or the other.

But it is an easy matter for those not committed to the worldview to see the cracks that develop. At first order, there's the conspicuous mismatch between the credulity extended to the premise of the conspiracy theory and that extended to any contradictory information (which is greeted with extreme skepticism, bordering on solipsism). To second order, there's the increasingly inane convolutions in narrative that the conspiracy-minded must produce in order to sustain their worldview, which end up spiraling into wild claims of omnipotent cabals that secretly control the world (a claim that is extraordinary even compared to the characterizations that the "doubter" will provide of official events, within his frame). Third, there's the blithe narcissism of supposing that a secret cabal can control human history indefinitely, but some dweeb on the internet manages to figure it all out by watching a few videos on YouTube. This last one leads us back to the psychological motivation for accepting the conspiracy premise to begin with: the "doubter" dresses himself up as a liberated free-thinker, empowered above and beyond the masses of "sheeple" who are herded by the conspiracy. Then he gets to go around to anonymous internet fora trolling people on that premise. WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!! I KNOW THE TRUTH!!!

 

[ElectricFetus]

Again I say we wait, wait for testimony from the capture family members, maybe these goregasm pictures of his corpse, etc, etc, before ranting on about conspiracy theories.

 

[Trippy]

Okay I wasn't implying that you were intimating something, just that his tweets only recounted the explosion he heard, the shots and grenades - not anything specific about the participants

Accepted - I tend to be a little to literal minded at times >_>.

As far as the Helicopter crash being a PAF helicopter goes, I'm finding conflicting reports about that (including this thread on the Pakistan Defence Forum).

As I understand it, the reports seem to have come via GeoTV, I'd be tempted to assume that it was people not realizing it was a US helicopter, except I've seen at least one source naming names of victims/casualties.

Unfortunately, my knowledge of the layout of Abbotabad is zilch, what I would like to know is where Bin Laden's compound was in relation to the Sikandarabad area.

 

[spidergoat]

There are coordinates out there, I think I saw them on CNN.

 

[Mrs.Lucysnow]

And we have all that shit this time? lol

Did you hear about this before? Was the international press all over it? Did Hamas come out all hand-wringing? Were world governments making comments? No. So why no reaction the first time he had supposedly died? Its not that she's asking these questions, its that she is only asking these questions now that the report of his death was caused by americans. She has expressed no doubts or skepticism in these other accounts. Go figure

 

[S.A.M.]

The crashed American helicopter is supposed to have been destroyed at the time, presumably by high-explosive charges.

source?

Because:

The official and local sources have confirmed that the helicopter, which crashed near Abbottabad city during an operation by US Special Forces that resulted in the killing of Al Qaeda chief Osama bin Laden, belonged to US army instead of Pakistan Army.

Sources informed that three helicopters participated in the operation, however, the reason behind US helicopter crashing could not be ascertained. Local residents told media that they had seen helicopters flying over the area hours after the operation.

Eyewitnesses said heavy firing was heard before the helicopter fell. Three to four Personnel of US Special forces were aboard the choppers which are reportedly dead or injured in the operation.


http://nation.com.pk/pakistan-news-...2-May-2011/US-helicopter-crashed-in-Abbotabad

As usual all the sources are anonymous

 

[quadraphonics]

Unfortunately, my knowledge of the layout of Abbotabad is zilch, what I would like to know is where Bin Laden's compound was in relation to the Sikandarabad area.

Boo-ya:

http://maps.google.com/maps?q=bin+l...6947,73.238361&spn=0.011238,0.024805&t=h&z=16

 

[Mrs.Lucysnow]

source?

Because:


As usual all the sources are anonymous

Oh you poor limited baby. You didn't understand? Well here I'll try again. Its unusual people from India are generally really proficient in English:

What is it about the first report that convinced you Bin Laden had died even though there was

2. no independent observer who can claim to have seen the body

3. no independent observer who has seen bin Laden in (....)

4. no proof of life or death

Why no doubts?

 

[Sir_Lagalot]

This is so cute. Yeah, the Pakistani administration was in the dark about this operation. the same way it was in the dark about all those drone attacks until it was made clear as to their tacit agreement on the airstrikes. Even the idiot pakistani chapter of the taliban has figured out the intel was fed to them by the Pakistani Intelligence service and they've announced they'll be shifting their crosshairs from the U.S onto the Pak Govt. And Army. The Administrations silence during and immediately after this operation was exactly the same as its been during these drone attacks until well..those drones got out of hand and started killing too many civilians. With all the anti-american sentiment thats been on the rise after recent drone attacks you think they'd risk another uprising and further chaos by admitting they sold out again? and really? and whats this about him staying at that place 5-6 years when his Yemeni wife claims they moved into this compound 5 months ago.

and the ISI had no clue about this compound?
gulfnews.com/news/world/other-world/bin-laden-compound-in-pakistan-was-once-an-isi-safe-house-1.802539

Its also amusing how the residents and neighbours around that compound claim they were instructed by Pakistani soldiers to turn off their lights an hour prior to the attack.

 

[S.A.M.]

Accepted - I tend to be a little to literal minded at times >_>.

As far as the Helicopter crash being a PAF helicopter goes, I'm finding conflicting reports about that (including this thread on the Pakistan Defence Forum).

As I understand it, the reports seem to have come via GeoTV, I'd be tempted to assume that it was people not realizing it was a US helicopter, except I've seen at least one source naming names of victims/casualties.

Unfortunately, my knowledge of the layout of Abbotabad is zilch, what I would like to know is where Bin Laden's compound was in relation to the Sikandarabad area.

As far as I know Sikanderabad [named for Alexander] is in the Punjab province while Abbottabad is in the Khyber-Pakhtunwa province. But Sikanderabad is such a common ubiquitous name that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Sikanderabad inside Abbottabad [edit, just read the link for the Kakool crash and yes that is near the Sikanderabad area inside Abbottabad]

Meanwhile there was a Pak chopper crash in Tarbela the day after Easter Osama , in Kakool which I assume is "near Sikanderabad" the day of Easter Obama. There was also a Pak military jet crash in the Punjab province the day after Easter Osama. So there are plenty of crash stories to confuse the search results especially since the US troops used the Tarbela air base for the operations as well

All in all, its not been a good week for Pakistan

 

[fedr808]

Well I heard aliens were involved in the firefight and beamed Osama back to their home planet.

Well at least Elvis will have someone to keep him company.

 

[Trippy]

As far as I know Sikanderabad [named for Alexander] is in the Punjab province while Abbottabad is in the Khyber-Pakhtunwa province. But Sikanderabad is such a common ubiquitous name that I wouldn't be surprised if there was a Sikanderabad inside Abbottabad [edit, just read the link for the Kakool crash and yes that is near the Sikanderabad area inside Abbottabad]

Meanwhile there was a Pak chopper crash in Tarbela the day after Easter Osama , in Kakool which I assume is "near Sikanderabad" the day of Easter Obama. There was also a Pak military jet crash in the Punjab province the day after Easter Osama. So there are plenty of crash stories to confuse the search results especially since the US troops used the Tarbela air base for the operations as well

All in all, its not been a good week for Pakistan

I still can't figure out where in Abbotabad Sikanderabad is, the only thing I know about it is that there's a market there.

I'm now mildly confused - are you confirming my suspicion that the Pak helicopter crash was a seperate, possibly/probably unrelated incident? (I get the general impression that the happened to be in the air on a training exercise at that time, and were either shot at, or suffered a mechanical failure.

 

[S.A.M.]

Secunderabad is the name of the area so it won't be on the map

The helicopter crashed on Kakool road which is very close to Bilal town, where Easter Osama had his hideout

http://maps.google.co.in/maps?q=osa...ent=firefox-a&um=1&ie=UTF-8&sa=N&hl=en&tab=wl

 

[Trippy]

Of course. Any good conspiracy theory starts with some premises that, once you accept them, result in a more-or-less self-sealing worldview that becomes impervious to new facts. They can all be subsumed one way or the other.

But it is an easy matter for those not committed to the worldview to see the cracks that develop. At first order, there's the conspicuous mismatch between the credulity extended to the premise of the conspiracy theory and that extended to any contradictory information (which is greeted with extreme skepticism, bordering on solipsism). To second order, there's the increasingly inane convolutions in narrative that the conspiracy-minded must produce in order to sustain their worldview, which end up spiraling into wild claims of omnipotent cabals that secretly control the world (a claim that is extraordinary even compared to the characterizations that the "doubter" will provide of official events, within his frame). Third, there's the blithe narcissism of supposing that a secret cabal can control human history indefinitely, but some dweeb on the internet manages to figure it all out by watching a few videos on YouTube. This last one leads us back to the psychological motivation for accepting the conspiracy premise to begin with: the "doubter" dresses himself up as a liberated free-thinker, empowered above and beyond the masses of "sheeple" who are herded by the conspiracy. Then he gets to go around to anonymous internet fora trolling people on that premise. WAKE UP SHEEPLE!!! I KNOW THE TRUTH!!!

I agree with much, or all of what you have to say, and frankly may strangle the next person I here utter the catch all phrase 'cognitive dissonance' for a number of reasons. I'm reminded of a piece by Tim Minchin, which I shall have to try and track down when I get home from work.

Natural perhaps wasn't the best word to use - it is simply less complicated, because the only conspiracists would be a small number of people in al Qaeda.