Deconstructing a Pseudoscientist II: Craterchains (Norval)
After the glowing reviews my
Deconstructing a Pseudoscientist (Part I) post got, I felt compelled to do so again.
Norval and his friend have been visiting boards like sciforums.com and *************.com for some time, touting their "theory" regarding the creation of catenae within the Solar System. Basically put, this "theory" involves an alien race
(or races) that wiped out a solar system of life (except Earth?) with nuclear weapons. The reason for this conjecture and speculation? Norval and FieryIce
seem convinced that such precision and perfection of pattern cannot occur in nature, since nature,
namely comets and rubble-pile asteroids, is too random and chaotic.
Those skeptical of Norval and his friend's claim have asked pertinent questions that simply receive creative answers or no answers at all. So is Norval a pseudoscientist or, like crazymikey, a bona fide, "Open-minded Scientist?"
For this deconstruction, I'll use Park (2003) and Casti (1990) as independent guides to recognizing pseudoscience and "bogus" science among us.
For the lay reader, not interested in Norval's wild speculations (oops. Gave away my bias), this will offer some valuable information to put in one's critical thinking toolkit. For the would-be pseudoscientist, it can offer some "what-not-to-do's" in order to gain credibility among those with baloney-detectors engaged.
First, Robert L. Park, a professor of physics at the University of Maryland at College Park and the director of public information for the American Physical Society, wrote a wonderful article (2003) called the Seven Warning Signs of Bogus Science. He is also the author of Voodoo Science: The Road From Foolishness to Fraud. Let's look at Parks 7 warning signs and see how many compare to Norval:
- The discoverer pitches the claim directly to the media.
As Park points out, bypassing the peer-review process and going public is one of the first signs that the claimant is aware that the "theory" won't pass muster among those of the scientific community. Norval says, "This is just straight forward SCIENCE, NOT PSEUDOSCIENCE. Check the math people for the real truth." Yet he doesn't publish a paper on the subject nor show this "math" he speaks of. What Norval will say is, "Is it my fault that some cant see the significance of the SETI pattern in CS crater chains? NO," and, "It really is very simple principles of motion and trajectories."
But it isn't, apparently, simple enough for the scientific community to understand in a paper!
- The discoverer says that a powerful establishment is trying to suppress his or her work.
I'll let Norval speak for himself: "the DISINFORMATION agents just keep popping off at the fart lips;" or
Norval (1/18/04) said:
Has anyone else noticed that certain topics seem to get attacked, made fun of, lied about openly, ignored, and attempts are continuously being made to disrupt or change the topic? We have noticed another ?pattern? besides crater chains. BBS and forum?s boards are full of these agents that are there to keep us from learning about some things. The methods used form a pattern which can be found by reading that ?persons? posts from many threads.
This is why I wont respond in this thread, only by email.
To the latter sentence, I guess he had a change of heart faced with an intellectual community such as sciforums.com, however, he deleted every post at *************.com rather than address valid points.
- The scientific effect involved is always at the very limit of detection.
Norval's claims are only defendable in that they have testability issues. Norval cites the inability for computer modeling to successfully explain catenae, but that's about as detailed as he gets. He doesn't suggest why modeling fails that I've noticed, only that it fails. He suggests that catenae are similar to rolling dice and winning lotteries in probability, but doesn't show the math to support this. Indeed, he fails to consider that there are constants involved, which increase catenae probability (gravitational forces, tidal disruptions, laws of physics, etc.). The tidal disruption of SL-9 was "debunked" by Norval on the basis that it didn't produce the effect that would create catenae. But Norval doesn't address the issue of tidal forces having advanced effect on the comet, creating a more significantly scattered ruble-pile.
Indeed, Norval relies solely on SL-9 and takes not into consideration the rubble-pile asteroids Nor does Norval address the issue of why the majority of the catenae are on the Jovian side of the moons rather than the opposite side. The Jovian side is where predicted tidal forces would affect impacts.
In short, Norval has no measurable evidence to support his claims, only wild speculation and assumptions.
- Evidence for a discovery is anecdotal.
Norval's main claim is without anecdote, but many of the peripheral claims (ETI, Disclosure, the biblical stuff, etc.) are replete with it.
In other pseudoscience claims, anecdote provides an emotional connection to the issue and frequently the anecdote will be attached to person(s) of significance, (i.e. Presidents, military men, etc.). These anecdotes are frequently without context or provenience, that is to say the sources and their original context, if any, are absent. Moreover, anecdotes often assume that human fallibilities do not extend to people of status or credible position, which is why they are often accompanied by titles such as, "school teacher," "colonel," "doctor," and even "anonymous." The later appealing to those that recognize that the witness isn't seeking attention, but offers no evidence that the anecdote is actually from a person.
- The discoverer says a belief is credible because it has endured for centuries.
Again, not much correlation to Norval here, though it can be said that he claims this intra-system war occurred many, many years ago.
Other pseudoscience claims tries to appeal to ancient teachings and dogma, even the bible is cited for such claims supporting creationist/intelligent design views, ancient war on Earth through the Mahabharat story, etc. FieryIce makes an appeal to "ancient texts" as described in #7 below.
- The discoverer has worked in isolation.
To my knowledge, it's just Norval and his "friend," perhaps on a boat somewhere. At least Norval as 45 years of "cognitive" education and FieryIce the same business administration education one would expect from cutting-edge secretaries.
- The discoverer must propose new laws of nature to explain an observation.
FieryIce states (5/12/04) that, "We know from the ancient writings that some of the floodwaters came from one of the earth cove[r]ing layers, like the stratospheres and from underground reservoirs." It appears that she is invoking the "firmament" mentioned in early Judeo-Christian mythology. This is used as a way of muddling the explanations for what we already know about our world that, perhaps, come into disagreement with the Norval/FieryIce catenae claim. She suggests that the "firmament" that is "known" through "ancient texts" will affect the way radiocarbon dating would "shrink the millions even billions of years down to thousands." She disregards or is ignorant of the multitudes of other dating methods, nor does she offer any explanation as to how UV affects carbon. It may, but this would doubtless get an answer of "do your own research," or "I'm not your research assistant" if asked of her.
So what of John L. Casti's view of pseudoscience? In his book, Paradigms Lost (1990), Casti reveals the following 11 points, some or all of which relate to Norval's claim. Those that don't relate, I will offer a brief explanation of for those interested in Casti's views on pseudoscience.
- Anachronistic Thinking
See the FieryIce section in Park's #7 above. In fact, upon looking at the other website of Norval/FieryIce, it seems clear that there are other influencing factors, such as the possible makings of a new religious cult centered around the "signs of the heavens" as noted by the site's citations to Luke 21:11 & 25 and Acts 2:19 and related to "anomalies" on Mars and Earth's Moon. Could suggesting that a religious cult is in the making be too harsh? Perhaps, but an open request for funding looks like a desire to obtain followers. Saying that "Disclosure is inevitable, will you survive it?" seems like it's straight out of the Left Behind series of popular Christian fiction.
- Seeking Mysteries
Pseudoscience tends to emphasis mysteries rather than make concerted attempt to solve them. Norval has done a commendable job at attempting to emphasize the inability of science to explain catenae. This is imperative to keep the momentum of a claim that an ancient, nuclear war occurred in our solar system by ETI. To pseudoscientists like Norval and FieryIce, mystery is the most important part of the claim. Once the mystery is gone, so is the limelight and, perhaps, the self-esteem boost one can obtain from public attention (** note: I'm speaking of pseudoscientists in general, I've no evidence that Norval or FieryIce seek attention for self-esteem or other personal psychological gain).
- Appeals to Myths
See Park's #7 above. FieryIce clearly appeals to the mythology of early Judeo-Christian thought. Moreover, their emphasis on the relation of the observed catenae on the Moon, Mars, satellites of Jupiter, etc. with biblical passages seems suggestive of an appeal to mythology. The idea that ancient myths must be based on actual events is a common one among pseudoscientists and creationists (another form of pseudoscience?) alike. This is entirely possible, but, if modern human gullibility and fallibility are any standards to go by, ancient mythology is full of inconsistencies with actual events.
- Casual Approach to Evidence
Evidence is the cornerstone of scientific method. Norval fails to detail any of the methodology of his speculations. He asserts (1/19/04) that a) because catenae are created nearly simultaneously, this is proof nature couldn't have done it. b) He asserts that of the photos available of catenae, they are often the newest feature and therefore must be of intelligent origin. c) He asserts that because science couldn't explain them prior to SL-9, they still cannot. d) He implies that because they weren't made known to the public prior to SL-9, there must have be a hypothesis of intelligent origin. and he states: e) "The only offered THEORY is the ?rubble pile? TDC (tidally disrupted comet). Which is based on the ?chance? it will produce a crater chain of the C/S type."
The problem with each of these assertions is: a) Norval offers no proof that tidally disrupted rubble-piles of asteroids or comets cannot be made to impact in this manner and that it is not a relatively common occurrence. Norval does, of course, maintain that there is some mathematical formula (formulae?), which will discount this hypothesis, but only talks of dice games and the lottery. b) he fails to consider that it is possible that clear and "nice" features are more likely to be photographed or offered up as publicly available (based on bandwidth/filesize considerations). c) & d) cover-up and conspiracy, the establishment trying to keep the information from the public and an emphasis on mystery e) what of the rubble-pile asteroid? The more recent catenae appear to be on the Jovian moons and Mars. Between them are asteroids. Moreover, on the moons, they appear to occur most frequently on the Jovian side, where tidal disruptions are more expected.
Norval's overall claim is that tidally disrupted rubble-piles don't make catenae. I've yet to see his data on why this isn't feasible, he seems to go on his emotion and gut as well as his belief system, which includes the existence of ETI. What better way to "prove" ETI than by suggesting that an untestable hypothesis is the proof?
- Irrefutable Hypotheses
While Norval's claim is certainly refutable, he fails to acknowledge this in any way. Not even to the point of revising to meet objections or arguments made. A hypothesis must have some potential for falsification in order to be valid. Norval's claim makes sure not to include falsifiable data or data which are likely to be tested in his lifetime. Going to the catenae and excavating or making stratigraphic analysis isn't going to occur anytime soon. While tidally disrupted rubble-pile asteroid collisions with satellites/planets are probably relatively common, that doesn't mean they happen with a frequency rate that will allow one to sit and wait behind the telescope.
- Spurious Similarities (or Correlations)
Norval's correlation of catenae to craters left by weapons is clearly spurious. Not only is the explanation anthropcentric (he does contend that ETI are involved), they aren't consistent with the expectation of a civilization(s) with the level of technology needed to travel freely and frequently within the solar system. One would expect such a(n) civilization(s) to be more efficient than merely dropping bombs. Guided missiles and bombs that target specific locations in patterns that meet the layout of the targets (cities, military sites, etc.).
- Explanation by Scenario
Indeed, that Norval is amazed enough by the strict patterning of the catenae to formulate a hypothesis that they could only be created by "intelligent" forces and not the random chaos of nature is itself an example of explanation by scenario. Amazingly, Norval has even been able to infer and induce details of the "war" merely by looking at craters and no artifacts! Why is his talent not being sought after by archaeology teams the world over!?
- Research by Literary Interpretation
This is not to be confused with "appeals to the ancients" and "appeals to myths." This characteristic of a pseudoscientist results from the interpretations applied to established and real science and scientists. The findings that are not supportive of the pseudoscientist's claims are rejected, often outright without refutation. Those that do support the hypothesis, however, are embraced and pointed at as proof of the claim. If I understand some of Norval's contentions correctly (and I do admit he is ambiguous at times), he implies that his hypothesis is accepted by NASA as a "possibility." I've yet to see a citation or source even provided by Norval to support this, but the following quote would support this contention by Norval (if one were to place a comma in the appropriate spot):
Norval (5/2/04) said:
Besides being the ONLY other offered THEORY accepted by NASA as having any semblance of reality and probability[,] the DISINFORMATION agents just keep popping off at the fart lips.
Norval is critical of those scientists who have plausible explanations, like William Bottke. He makes unprofessional (Norval does claim to be a researcher, so professionalism would be implied) word-plays on his name the same way he does with sciforums.com members (I really thought Buffys' avatar was an eye until the "tit" remark. Thought it even winked at me like Goofyfish's) and FieryIce (5/12/04) comments "Cornell has taken down all pages of Bottke's et. al. Tidal Disruptive Asteroid theory. LOL." His page is now at his new home with the Space Studies Department of the Southwest Research Institute in Colorado. He moved.
- Refusal to Revise
A hallmark of pseudoscience: the refusal to revise one's position in light of new evidence. No matter how effectively someone who is proficient in scientific method or knowledgeable about the physics of orbital mechanics, pseudoscientists like Norval will refuse to revise their positions. They will cling to their "theories" without considering that they may have it wrong. Is this a self-esteem/psychological issue? Could it be a compensation for a lifetime of ignorance and poorly educated intellect? Who knows? It is clear, however, that from the perspective of one with 45 years of "cognitive experience," 4, 6 and 8 years of specialized education isn't enough to be able to demonstrate an intellectual position on the idea.
- Shift the Burden of Proof to the Other Side
A common tactic among pseudoscientists, who will make statements similar to, "but it hasn't been disproved." Norval has certainly been guilty of the "burden of proof shift" on several occasions within this forum. Comments like, "try using your typing skills in the search engines (2/1/04)," or
Norval (5/16/04) said:
How about you giving an example of the math factors that you feel would be applicable?
How would you determine them? We come up with about 5 variable factors as a base. Then there are singular variables of a few more to take into account."
Yet Norval doesn't show the Math. He instead challenges others to do the work for him rather than support his own "theory."
Within the same post
Norval (5/16/04) said:
Then really do some home work and DIG, DIG, DIG.
No Norval. It's your half-baked idea. Either finish cooking it or order pizza. We're not hungry.
- A Theory is Legitimate Simply Because it's New, Alternative, or Daring
This is the Galileo effect. I can't recall if Norval made any statements like this, but with pseudoscientists it is a common thing to say, "they persecuted Galileo, too," and, "Copernicus was laughed at/not accepted in the beginning either." This offers no validity or legitimacy to the pseudoscience argument because the "they" in those cases was often the church. Religion doesn't have the hold over science the way it did in the Middle Ages, thought there are times when I think the influence of the so-called Religious Right is too significant in things such as genetics and bio-research, but that's another topic for another forum(s).
There you have it: a proper deconstruction of a pseudoscientist. I'm certain that Norval or others will respond as crazymikey did with fallacious attempts to liken this critical review as an
ad hominem attack or an attempt at character assassination. It is not.
If one is willing to make a public statement of a wild claim and fail to support it appropriately, then one should expect critique. Contrary to what Norval says ("This is just straight forward SCIENCE, NOT PSEUDOSCIENCE."), it seems as though his hypothesis has all the earmarks and characteristics, save for a select few, of pseudoscience.
This is a science message board (sciforums) and the sub-forum is pseudoscience. One should expect pseudoscience to be
exposed more so than
expected.
References
Casti, J. (1990). Paradigms Lost. New York: Avon.
Park, R. L. (2003, 31/1). The Seven Warning Signs of Bogus Science (Webpage) (Vol. 49, Iss. 21, Page B20 / Point of View). Retrieved 16/05/04, from The Chronicle of Higher Education: http://chronicle.com/free/v49/i21/21b02001.htm.