Posted By: Mr Anonymous
Like any probability based mathematics, the more criteria and the more specific nature of those criteria one adds to the expected outcome, likelihoods of that specific outcome decrease.
I guess it's my utter lack of mathamatical prowess (which I am quick to admit to anyone) that makes me weary of the whole probability thing. It's a lack of understanding, to be sure, but I am simply uncomfortable placing probabilities on things we have really only one case of. We only have one case of known life--be in intelligent and otherwise--to study, so to assign probabilities to it's existance elsewhere just makes me weary.
(As a side note, I have previously, in another thread, stated that the crater chain mystery was solved with a singular event in the SL9 impact of Jupiter, but that is an entirely different case. In the case of life elsewhere, we have other planets in this solar system which do not harbor life, so life on Earth seems to be the exception to the rule)
Posted By: Mr Anonymous
... Well, Norval is a person of very singular beliefs. The only important thing remains that you don't think for an instant that any such thing remains likely to begin with.
This is true, and with the help of Skinwalker, I have realized that Norval is a prime example of the Psyeudoscientist; which might be the direct opposite of an actual scientist. A man like him, and a woman like Duendy, will never budge in their position. You, myself, Spurrious, and even Gustav, will change positions based on the evidence placed before us. If the science can find proof of alien life, then we will believe. If they can even find a way to prove that ET is visiting us in spaceships, we will believe. If science can find evidence that crater chains were caused by an interplanetary war, we will believe.
On the contrary, if science finds absolute proof that we are alone in the universe, Norval, Duendy, and their kind will simply shrug it off because it doesn't mix with their
current beliefs. That is what seperates them from the rest of us, and what truly points them out to be less than critical thinkers: The inability to be dissuaded, to change their minds.
Hell, I'll be honest, and this might come as a shock to you, but I used to be a huge believer in UFOs and alien visitation. I used to watch a pro-UFO documentary and truly take it as the word of God. Show's like "sightings" and those kind were the truth to me, and I wouldn't hear otherwise. But as time went on, and I grew up a little, and surfed these boards (and others) I began to realize that there was a difference between the path I took to my beliefs and the paths most critical thinkers took to theirs. My path was TV shows and wild propoganda, and theirs was fact and testable, empirical evidence.
That's when I realized it was time to
change my mind. For all believing I did, I realized I had no real conclusive evidence to back it up. No spaceships had ever been found, no alien bodies had ever been found, and no life had been found beyond Earth. All I had to rely on was a couple of lights I had seen in the sky, and what some anonymous people on TV adn the internet had told me. I simply couldn't believe that anymore.
JDisinformation