UFO study finds no sign of aliens

I said "fast microchips." Today's personal computers have at least a thousand times as much of everything as they did in 1990 and those were almost that much more advanced than the ones available in 1970. Complex ballistics calculations go from impossible to almost impossible (or at least seem like that) when you use the computers of the 1940s and 1950s, then become trivial when you use small semi-portable computers of the 1970s. By 1975 even a pocket calculator could solve those equations in no time, and we weren't particularly close to what we call having real computers then, certainly not affordable or particularly portable ones.

In a guild system, when there is enough to do a particular job, they will clamp down if they can. Take so many years to develop a system, use contracts and other things to force spacecraft makers to use their systems exclusively and not upgrade for years, then upgrade only incrementally. This does have the virtue that a twenty year old system can be repaired with guaranteed quality parts, unlike a nuclear plant or the space shuttle.

One thing they had in the 1940s was the abacus. If I look around at the histories, someone probably used it. A person who was well trained could do calculations quite quickly and accurately with one of those, but it's a mental discipline that is harder than a lot of modern math. You can't set one of those up so that a farm-boy can throw a few toggles and get an answer on the dials. That's years of training just to crunch a few numbers. However, the abacus is more than adequate for plotting courses. If, hypothetically, it took two hours to set up a table of numbers using the abacus, this would be trivial for a space journey. They could have been used to figure out where to point the radiotelescopes during the moon shots. A good operator could solve those equations for you in under five minutes.

There were also solid state computers, even used on aircraft, made entirely of discrete components, tin-can transistors and stuff like that. This is what went up on early rockets. You are right to say that the space race forced the development of the microchip computer, but the Russians used heavier boosters to accomplish the same goal. What if another civilization went with the heavier boosters? The bonus is that they could throw more tonnage up. Take ten percent of the resources that their population might have used on cars, use that to build space stations. If a society is mercifully free of war, it might have a lot of excess to do that with.

Even with us energy has been relatively cheap and manufactured components have been expensive. The price of a small car engine is about the same as the price of gasoline to travel 10,000 miles if the car gets 20 miles per gallon, the price of gas is $3, and the engine is $1500.

When you talk about bringing the components back versus bringing the knowledge of how to build them, do you think that one through? Do you have any idea what goes into a chip fabricator? What about the tools to make tools? What about the thousands of people who have to be trained to support the infrastructure to design the fabricator and the chips, to work the fabricator, then to assemble those chips into something useful? What about the manufacture of all the materials that go into a microchip? It takes a hell of a lot more than a set of blueprints, and if someone can transport a few hundred pounds of chips, it really can make more sense to simply purchase them from Mouser electronics. It took the involvement of literally millions of people and billions of human-hours to make the microchip the reality that it is today. Let's see the Centaurians replicate that!
 
One thing they had in the 1940s was the abacus. If I look around at the histories, someone probably used it.
And as Feynman showed in one of his books, for calculations other than straight arithmetic (+ _ / and *) the time on an abacus increases practically exponentially, he could do square roots on paper faster than the abacus operator. It wasn't used to any extent on the A bomb, it wasn't used to any extent on artillery ballistics tables.
this would be trivial for a space journey
Except the tables would need to cover ALL possibilities and take up far too much room. Even the shuttle had a pocket computer on board (HP-51 IIRC) for last-minute calculations during re-entry on its early missions. An abacus could NOT handle the equations in real time.
This is what went up on early rockets
Agreed. And every one of those shots ended with the guys saying "we need more and faster computing power".
If a society is mercifully free of war
I see we're expanding our knowledge of alien societal structures...
When you talk about bringing the components back versus bringing the knowledge of how to build them, do you think that one through?
which is why my earlier post said
Hell, give me the drawings used to build your manufacturing plants as well as the drawings used to manufacture the goods.
more jobs at home... more spin-off industries etc. etc.
So you want to transport a few hundred pounds of chips? What are you going to use them in? Oh, let's build an industry around the chips to make PCs they can be used in. Great, now how do we build a PC? FYI "blueprint" is only used in bad spy novels and films. No engineer refers to "blueprints" (I've only ever seen two in 35 years of engineering, and they were in an archive). They're drawings.
Even with us energy has been relatively cheap and manufactured components have been expensive. The price of a small car engine is about the same as the price of gasoline to travel 10,000 miles if the car gets 20 miles per gallon, the price of gas is $3, and the engine is $1500.
Wrong perspective. The components are that price because of the energy required to make them. Digging the raw material out the ground, turning it into useable componenets, assembling the components. It's all energy cost, even human labour (wages) are an energy cost.
PS $3 a gallon? Try seven or eight over here...
but the Russians used heavier boosters to accomplish the same goal.
What, the heavier the booster the less computing power you need? How does that work?
It took the involvement of literally millions of people and billions of human-hours to make the microchip the reality that it is today.
Correct. But now we KNOW how it's done anybody can set up in business, all they need are the full specs. Taiwan (I stand to be corrected, it might be Korea or someone else) are the largest manufacturers of chips today, but how many Taiwanese were involved in the development of the chip? What was their contribution through history?
 
You sound like someone who has not done square roots on paper.
Considering the start of my engineering career predates pocket calculators and I couldn't afford a slide rule on my wages then you'd be wrong.
(Edited to add the words "the start of " - I'm not THAT old.)
 
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Imagine the scenario, you have a few minutess to stop the end of your wormhole closing by calculating how much exotic matter to add from your magnetic containments device, because of a minor fluctuation in the field density.

So, you get out your log tables, perform a 3-dimensional surface integration of the function that describes the shape of the wormhole with the new parameters, sum the forces, and then do the same thing for the containment bottle that holds your exotic matter, and then try and work out how much force you need to apply to separate off just enough to inject into your new wormhole matrix, and recalculate the field for the magnetic containment bottle, and then you spill coffee on your log tables, and ka fucking boom! You die in a shower of gamma rays 'cos it all imploded. "Aw shit", were your last words, "sin² θ, DOH!"
 
A much easier perspective to look at the difficulties of achieving space travel is to look at the X Prize (www.xprizefoundation.com). If it was so simple that rudimentary equipment could be used and everything was cheaply done, there would be both more entries and successful "re-entries".

It does suggest it will take the planet and all it's scientists working on the same problem to achieve what people fear the impossible and no less. (That currently is not going to happen with Politics, Religion and Racism undermining these people from working together.)
 
Ah, got you. But heavier computers require heavier boosters, leaving the fuel fraction the same for a given performance. The fact that they used heavier computers doesn't give a larger payload in and of itself.
 
But when they have to lug a lot of equipment they give in and build those heavier boosters. Then they have the payload capacity. When you think about it, our forty year old designs don't carry all that much. They can be scaled up and throw half a million pounds to the moon instead of fifty thousand.
 
And the extra payload capacity is taken by the heavier computers. If you scale up then yes you have more payload (but still only proportionally).
So what? That gets you into orbit, or around the moon. If you want to move anywhere else you need another propulsion method (i.e. your warp drive or whatever). So how big are the ships? And it's always more cost-effective to miniaturise as much as possible to increase payload than to increase vehicle size. A larger vehicle/ vessel needs larger everything.... and it's a law of diminishing returns.
 
In this game we have booster designs that are just barely enough and can't readily be upgraded to throw more stuff into orbit when we need it. Presuming that competing governments weren't actually going to destroy the planet if we did it, we should have gone on to a much greater throw weight. Then we might be talking about permanent habitats delivered to the moon along with a return vehicle or several. Imagine Apollo 13 having enough stuff that they could continue the mission with half of their equipment shot to hell, or theoretically still go on to Mars if they had to. The danger to their lives would certainly be less and we would be able to get somewhere at the same time. Anyway, imagine being able to build a bunch of useful stuff and set it on the moon all at once. You'd have room for ten people, multiple redundant shelters, piles of computers and instruments, food, water, and oxygen for years, machine tools, extra batteries, nuclear piles, and escape vehicles. We never did approach the moon in adequate strength.

I think that everything got chopped down below a critical threshold for a colony to achieve independence. A few hundred people up there who have enough materials and tools to keep building might get ideas. Ask Heinlein. If there is a colony of people from another solar system somewhere, they may well have arrived with inadequate everythings. They may have had to figure out how to build their stuff using B.C. technology, which does include refined metals, wire, and electrical batteries. And talk about a nightmare of having to reconstruct a technology from computer files that would become unreadable in a few years. Even going flat-out, balls-to-the-wall with the help of every aborigine who could be inducted, copying all that stuff would be impossible. Even separating out the basics is a daunting task. There is only so much that can be put on clay tablets.

History says that people came from space and did all sorts of strange things. I take that seriously myself.
 
History says that people came from space and did all sorts of strange things.
I agree, except that the word "history" should be "mythology" or "fantasy".
If there is a colony of people from another solar system somewhere, they may well have arrived with inadequate everythings.
If you have a viable form of interstellar travel you take what you want - a slow ark ship would be large enough to put in what you'd need, a fast "warp drive" would imply you have the energy available to shift enough stuff.
 
I don't think the U.S., Russia or any other country is going to be around long enough to invent 'warp drive'. The world and it's countries are to preoccupied in trying to destroy each other instead of trying to create a joint effort in trying to develop a new kind of propulsion technology to reach other stars. If the current U.S. president would have put the same amount of money into the U.S. space program as he has spent foolishly in trying to destroy Iraq, just think where we would be now. Probably would have had a base established on Mars by now.
 
Maybe the aliens have it just as bad and the only escapees will be a breakaway group that develops its spacecraft in secret.
 
MetaKron said:
Maybe the aliens have it just as bad and the only escapees will be a breakaway group that develops its spacecraft in secret.

Sounds like a good story plot for a Sci-Fi movie. :D
 
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