Some other nations have fewer armed citizens, and more armed criminals. Then there are those with more armed citizens, and fewer armed criminals.
Yes, those are things one encounters in a correlation analysis, ice: heterogeneity and random variance.
However, a number of studies indicate that the presence of guns in the home correlates with homicide and suicide. I haven't looked in too much depth, but here are several such studies:
1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide (literature review).
Our review of the academic literature found that a broad array of evidence indicates that gun availability is a risk factor for homicide, both in the United States and across high-income countries. Case-control studies, ecological time-series and cross-sectional studies indicate that in homes, cities, states and regions in the US, where there are more guns, both men and women are at higher risk for homicide, particularly firearm homicide.
Hepburn, Lisa; Hemenway, David. Firearm availability and homicide: A review of the literature. Aggression and Violent Behavior: A Review Journal. 2004; 9:417-40.
2. Across high-income nations, more guns = more homicide.
We analyzed the relationship between homicide and gun availability using data from 26 developed countries from the early 1990s. We found that across developed countries, where guns are more available, there are more homicides. These results often hold even when the United States is excluded.
Hemenway, David; Miller, Matthew. Firearm availability and homicide rates across 26 high income countries. Journal of Trauma. 2000; 49:985-88.
3. Across states, more guns = more homicide
Using a validated proxy for firearm ownership, we analyzed the relationship between firearm availability and homicide across 50 states over a ten year period (1988-1997).
After controlling for poverty and urbanization, for every age group, people in states with many guns have elevated rates of homicide, particularly firearm homicide.
Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. Household firearm ownership levels and homicide rates across U.S. regions and states, 1988-1997. American Journal of Public Health. 2002: 92:1988-1993.
4. Across states, more guns = more homicide (2)
Using survey data on rates of household gun ownership, we examined the association between gun availability and homicide across states, 2001-2003. We found that states with higher levels of household gun ownership had higher rates of firearm homicide and overall homicide. This relationship held for both genders and all age groups, after accounting for rates of aggravated assault, robbery, unemployment, urbanization, alcohol consumption, and resource deprivation (e.g., poverty). There was no association between gun prevalence and non-firearm homicide.
Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah; Hemenway, David. State-level homicide victimization rates in the U.S. in relation to survey measures of household firearm ownership, 2001-2003. Social Science and Medicine. 2007; 64:656-64.
(Boston) — A new study from the
American Journal of Public Health shows that U.S. states with higher estimated rates of gun ownership experience a higher number of firearms-related homicides.
The study, led by a Boston University School of Public Health researcher, examines the National Rifle Association’s (
NRA) claim that increased gun ownership does not lead to increased gun violence. It is the largest study conducted to date into the correlation between gun ownership and firearms violence, and the first to comprehensively examine the issue since the tragic shooting last December of 20 children and 7 adults at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Connecticut.
The study, covering 30 years (1981-2010) in all 50 states, found a “robust correlation” between estimated levels of gun ownership and actual gun homicides at the state level, even when controlling for factors typically associated with homicides.
For each 1 percentage point increase in the prevalence of gun ownership, the state firearm homicide rate increases by 0.9 percent, the authors found.
“Understanding the relationship between the prevalence of gun ownership and therefore the availability of guns, and firearm-related mortality is critical to guiding decisions regarding recently proposed measures to address firearm violence,” the authors said.
http://www.bu.edu/news/2013/09/13/n...between-rates-of-gun-ownership-and-homicides/
That's a robust correlation indeed.
This study (
http://motherboard.vice.com/blog/higher-rates-of-gun-ownership-dont-correlate-to-less-crime) has an interesting point or two regarding the United States as well: as an outlier leveraging a frequency-based statistic - and in the case of a demographic system like this (with vast numbers of observations for the single data point, making it frequency-based rather than a single hazard observation) - it indicates a serious correlation within that nation. Even if there were no significant global, international correlation between firearm-related deaths - and there
certainly is such a correlation (r^2 =
0.8,
P < 0.0001) - that observation
alone would be sufficient to indicate an enormous problem with firearm deaths in the US.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2013/sep/18/gun-ownership-gun-deaths-study
The lack of correlation is even visible in the US itself, region by region. The violent inner cities of the US have fewer guns, per capita, than the peaceful exurbs and pastoral landscapes.
Legal or otherwise? Is this effect more important than the national correlation? If so, why?
This issue is one of the few - maybe the only major one in the US - in which the stereotype of extremists on both sides gridlocking the moderate center of reasonable people seems to actually be the case.
Evidence?