I don't know who you are talking about with regard to predictions of economic collapse in the last 100 years, but when oil production peaks, we will start to be in trouble. Sooner if disruptions in supply occur as a result of war or unrest. Of course, the economy will also be in peak form just before end. Russia already experienced a collapse of the USSR, and they are far better prepared for such hardship.
Why? Our oil consumption has declined significantly since 2009. It is now starting to increase again, but most people don't expect it to grow much.
The estimates of unconventional reserves are artificially inflated and declining far faster than predicted. And it doesn't matter if our consumption is down slightly, we still depend on oil for our entire economy.
Hmm. Given that they in fact increasing rapidly* that's a pretty hard sell.
That is changing pretty rapidly.
Agreed. Nor will the lack of oil derail future bursts of prosperity from newer, non-oil-based energy technologies.
The economy is based on growth. With decreasing sources of energy, the economy will decrease, which we call recession. Every other source of energy requires large capital investments and gives you less return on that investment than crude oil. We already have a scarcity of capital. Our economy is not infinitely adaptable. At some point, recession will lead to loss of trust in our government, which will become increasingly irrelevant. When this happened in the USSR, it collapsed. Of course, people will continue with some form of society, but it won't be like this one. It will be based on growing food, not consuming junk shipped from around the world. We will have to move from the areas of the country that require air conditioning. We won't be driving, so food will have to come from local sources. Refugees from less prosperous countries will add to the burden. Global warming will make everything worse. Disillusioned Americans who think they have a right to an obsolete way of life will blame their own scapegoats, leading to civil unrest.
Agreed. Fortunately we have no shortage of energy - we just lack the technology to convert and store it cheaply. Fortunately those are improving all the time.
That will be true - until it isn't. We used to feel the same way about whale oil; there was nothing that was cheaper for lighting, or gave you a better return on investment.
It is certainly true that our society will continue to change.
Oh, I think our future will see more air conditioning, not less - since right now air conditioning takes power during the time where new technologies generate a surplus of it.
We will almost certainly be driving and moving food long distances. Again, these are technological problems we have already solved; they just haven't gotten cheap enough yet.
It's been far from reliable. Recall the Great Depression of the 1920's and 1930's.
I'm talking about something that's going on (probably) now and in the near future, you are talking about vague promises of scaling up in the next 20-30 years. It's a kind of cognitive dissonance that few people seem to recognize. We have technology to transplant hearts, but that doesn't mean everyone who needs one can get one. The existence of technology is the least of it.
There are all kinds of reasons why things are profitable. Pyramid schemes are profitable. Hope is profitable, however false it might be.
Well, no, I am talking about what is ACTUALLY happening. All my power (including the power my car uses) comes from solar. And that sort of thing is increasing rapidly worldwide:
Right. It will be decades before anyone who wants a heart transplant can get one - just as decades ago antibiotics were a dream drug that almost no one could afford. Times change, and betting that nothing ever changes is generally a mistake.