Xelasnave.1947
Valued Senior Member
At least you are calling them sooks...that is a good start.
I am not going to continue this we all know they acted like sooks from day one there is no changing that
Alex
Corona Virus 2019-nCoV
- Thread starter Quantum Quack
- Start date
At least you are calling them sooks...that is a good start.
I am not going to continue this we all know they acted like sooks from day one there is no changing that
Alex
....and there is no changing the reality of what the Republicans achieved when they failed in their sworn duty as office bearers.
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USA
Yesterday totals
1,010,356 confirmed cases ( About one third of the global total)
56,797 Deaths ( all under Trumps watch and republican responsibility - failure to impeach)
814,559 active and contagious cases
Over 14K in serious to critical care... of which a high percentage will inevitably pass away.
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Xelasnave.1947
Valued Senior Member
I don't disagree in the least and my point is merely that you can't win being a sook...
I am not defending Trump I just believe we are going to get more Trump because of the childish approach of sooking...and I don't like it.
Alex
Something you can do if you have the time, is misrepresent what the case and mortality statistics are saying about how dangerous this virus is, say compared to seasonal flu.
If you aren't a statistician or an epidemiologist, but you are someone important, it's probably quite an easy thing to do, to claim that the testing has revealed that covid-19 isn't much more lethal than the flu. And that based on just three months of data collection!
How would you, as a budding statistician, interpret the numbers? The US currently has about 1/3 the global number of reported positive tests for the presence of a viral load (as the medicos say). This number is obviously a statistical anomaly--probably the US has this number because the rest of the world hasn't tested at the same scale, in general (probably smaller countries have though, at least collected a statistically significant set of case data).
NZ, for instance, has 19 deaths and a population of about 4.5 million, so the population mortality rate is almost zero; the case fatality rate is 19/1474 (roughly) or about 1.3% of reported cases. Which number is a better indicator?
If you aren't a statistician or an epidemiologist, but you are someone important, it's probably quite an easy thing to do, to claim that the testing has revealed that covid-19 isn't much more lethal than the flu. And that based on just three months of data collection!
How would you, as a budding statistician, interpret the numbers? The US currently has about 1/3 the global number of reported positive tests for the presence of a viral load (as the medicos say). This number is obviously a statistical anomaly--probably the US has this number because the rest of the world hasn't tested at the same scale, in general (probably smaller countries have though, at least collected a statistically significant set of case data).
NZ, for instance, has 19 deaths and a population of about 4.5 million, so the population mortality rate is almost zero; the case fatality rate is 19/1474 (roughly) or about 1.3% of reported cases. Which number is a better indicator?
I believe what will become the better indicator is the actual number of deaths for entire nations regardless of cause. Comparing historical averages.
The main difference between the flu and the COVID is that we typically have a vaccine for the flu which keeps the flu death numbers down.
One can only wonder what the death toll would be if the flu vaccine wasn't available every year..
The other difference is that apparently the flu is considered as air borne, where as the COVID is considered as droplet contact.
There is a bit of a puzzle with regards to China.
The cost of what has occurred there to them must be enormous. Shutting down a region with 400 million people, Beijing and other undeclared regions impacted. Huge would be an underestimate I would think yet, the Chinese government has allowed what we believe to be the source of this virus to reopen and trade a normal.
The Chinese are not stupid ( generally) so the puzzle is why they appear to have taken virtually no steps to prevent the sort of disaster they have just experienced?
Is it because they already know that the source is NOT the wet markets?
C/O WSJ
The cost of what has occurred there to them must be enormous. Shutting down a region with 400 million people, Beijing and other undeclared regions impacted. Huge would be an underestimate I would think yet, the Chinese government has allowed what we believe to be the source of this virus to reopen and trade a normal.
The Chinese are not stupid ( generally) so the puzzle is why they appear to have taken virtually no steps to prevent the sort of disaster they have just experienced?
Is it because they already know that the source is NOT the wet markets?
C/O WSJ
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Probably not.
No, the flu is not "considered as airborne". While there is increasing evidence that the common flu can be transmitted via airborne particles, it is still considered by most experts to be overwhelmingly transmitted by means of droplets - i.e. the same way as Covid-19. And it has yet to be established whether Covid-19 can or can not also be caught via airborne transmission. So it is not quite the difference you seem to want to make it out to be.
Thanks for the correction.. The article I read suggested other wise but I have since confirmed it was wrong...
Can I ask?
Is the situation in the UK as bad as it has been reported to be?
The US has that number despite inadequate testing compared with other First World medical care setups - the US is an infection center, apparently due to its incompetent and corrupt government.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
How do you imagine anyone can answer that, without knowing what reports you are referring to, Dummkopf?
Bells
Staff member
A few things to note here.
You can't compare New Zealand and the US, for example, simply because New Zealand responded very quickly and slowed the spread very very quickly.
The US took over a month before they responded to the unfolding crisis.
To the other, the US has now conducted more tests, but we should also note that the US has a population of over 350 million.
If we are to look at it as tests per million people in the populace, the US lags behind other countries. Worse still, testing in the US has not kept up with the pandemic or spread of the virus within its population, which means their true figures of those infected would be much higher.
While they may be conducting more tests, but in relation to the population size and spread of the virus, they aren't keeping up with the spread.
The average numbers being tested for the OECD countries is c.23 people per 1,000 population. The US is some way behind this at c.15-16, but it is still higher than other first world countries such as UK , Netherlands, France (between 9 and c.11), and Japan (c.2).
Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/these-are-the-oecd-countries-testing-most-for-covid-19/
Define "bad". What do you think is "bad" about the situation in the UK?
We're not testing as many as we should - really only those admitted to hospital, all deaths, plus key workers at the moment - hence CFR looks quite high... i.e. there are likely many tens (if not hundreds) of thousands who have caught it and not been tested.
Is it "bad"? Possibly depends on how you cope with being stuck indoors all day. Me, personally, have found it a breeze. Quite enjoyable and relaxing... especially as I've been furloughed, so am being paid a (albeit reduced) salary to literally do nothing for my employer. The only annoying things are being unable to travel to see friends, and having to queue outside the supermarket as it operates on a 1 out 1 in basis. Oh, and the lack of village cricket being played on Sundays.
Everything else is pretty much like taking a holiday at home.
Notes on second wave:
re: concerns about relaxing lock down.
Singapore:
02-05-2020
17,101 CC (+ 932 new cases - 24 hours)
growth rate of : 5.45%
16 CFR
A significant stat 15,817 active and contagious cases.
USA:
903,571 active and contagious cases.
16,481 Critical/Serious
1,130,851 cc ( +35,828 new - 24 hours)
65,729 CFR
re: concerns about relaxing lock down.
Singapore:
02-05-2020
17,101 CC (+ 932 new cases - 24 hours)
growth rate of : 5.45%
16 CFR
A significant stat 15,817 active and contagious cases.
USA:
903,571 active and contagious cases.
16,481 Critical/Serious
1,130,851 cc ( +35,828 new - 24 hours)
65,729 CFR
There is a whole heap of reasons to follow this virus here at sciforums...
If you don't have any interest then don't post. Up to you.
There is certainly a lot to discuss.
The thread provides a historical record that may be of use later when other similar viruses emerge which they probably will...and provide a record of member thoughts during such a significant global event as this.
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02/05/2020
Currently in Australia we are relaxing lock down restrictions in a number of states.
This week end saw many beaches opened to public use and other restrictions on activities relaxed.
The next 4- 10 days will be critical as to whether a 2nd wave will be observed or not.
My state is not relaxing at this moment and wont until the 11th May.
Which will give the State leaders an opportunity to see how the other states go...
Notes:
Nursing homes and other closed environments seem to be of particular significance.
Social distancing USA style.
img c/o BBC
a state worth watching... Michigan (pop-10 million)
img c/o BBC
a state worth watching... Michigan (pop-10 million)
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
That's the exception and not the rule (which you already know of course).
True... but Michigan is not the only state playing games with COVID-19
I was talking to a gaming mate based in Idaho., for about 60 minutes or so about this issue of "It only takes a few idiots and the USA lock down could go on for years."
He was quite distressed about it...and how the protests are actually elongating the time that the economy is being damaged. The clock on the economy is ticking and the longer the USA dithers the worse the outcome will be.