Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Quantum Quack said:
True... but Michigan is not the only state playing games with COVID-19
I was talking to a gaming mate based in Idaho., for about 60 minutes or so about this issue of "It only takes a few idiots and the USA lock down could go on for years."
He was quite distressed about it...and how the protests are actually elongating the time that the economy is being damaged. The clock on the economy is ticking and the longer the USA dithers the worse the outcome will be.
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The protests, though idiotic, aren't a problem. Most people are on lock down. A few don't like it and are protesting but if most people weren't on lock down there would be nothing to protest.
 
Seattle said:
The protests, though idiotic, aren't a problem. Most people are on lock down. A few don't like it and are protesting but if most people weren't on lock down there would be nothing to protest.
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So what do you think will be the outcome if lockdown is lifted due to the protests?
 
Sarkus said:
The average numbers being tested for the OECD countries is c.23 people per 1,000 population. The US is some way behind this at c.15-16, but it is still higher than other first world countries such as UK , Netherlands, France (between 9 and c.11), and Japan (c.2).
Source: https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/these-are-the-oecd-countries-testing-most-for-covid-19/
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1) Note that the US is far below OECD average even in claimed testing - despite having a more serious infection problem than most.
2) Also: There's probably something wrong with those numbers, at least the US ones and the comparisons. For starters, there is little reliable data compilation in the US - tests claimed and tests actually administered and evaluated cannot be assumed equivalent. Continuing, we notice that a couple of countries known to have done more thorough and effective testing than the US show up as having tested a smaller fraction of their population (S Korea) - that is possible on competence considerations, but would not reflect well on the US regardless.
3) The US testing has been largely confined to symptomatic people - a much smaller and more specialized target population than a competent government, confronted with a viral plague, would select. That is "inadequate" testing, as posted, and due to incompetence and corruption, as noted.
4) The "total tested" figure has been removed from the US CDC website (the US has no reliable and official source of such data), but it is hardly likely to be in the neighborhood of 5 million (as would have been required by the claim of 15.6/1000 citizens tested). This graph from the CDC indicates less than 1 million tests evaluated: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/lab-specimens-tested.jpg
 
iceaura said:
1) Note that the US is far below OECD average even in claimed testing - despite having a more serious infection problem than most.
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https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdUOA?Si
Sure, per this data US currently has one of the highest number of cases per million population, at c.3.4k. San Marino tops the list at 17k, Vatican City at 13.7k, Spain and Iceland come in at c.5.2k, Belgium and Ireland c.4.2k. US is on a par with Switzerland and Italy at the moment. UK is at 2.6k, along with France, and Germany is at c.2k.
So US is near the top, but not exactly streets ahead of some other large 1st world countries.
2) Also: There's probably something wrong with those numbers, at least the US ones and the comparisons.
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Which comparisons? The ones I gave in my post, or all the ones the data provides for?
For starters, there is little reliable data compilation in the US - tests claimed and tests actually administered and evaluated cannot be assumed equivalent.
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Such issues with the data are noted in the link below the chart in the link I provided, that website also detailing where it gets its data. You are free to reject that data wholesale if it doesn't provide you with the ammunition for your agenda, of course, or you can accept the data as being broadly comparable but with some noted issues.
Continuing, we notice that a couple of countries known to have done more thorough and effective testing than the US show up as having tested a smaller fraction of their population (S Korea) - that is possible on competence considerations, but would not reflect well on the US regardless.
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Sure, the number of tests per population is clearly not in itself an indication of competence or otherwise. This is not disputed. I posted merely to show that the US is by no means the worst in terms of testing per population. Measuring the number of tests per population is really only good for comparing how many people have been tested. Some countries have tested far fewer and have far lower cases. Some have tested more and have higher cases per million (e.g. Belgium, Iceland etc).
3) The US testing has been largely confined to symptomatic people - a much smaller and more specialized target population than a competent government, confronted with a viral plague, would select. That is "inadequate" testing, as posted, and due to incompetence and corruption, as noted.
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Sure, and this is likely true of some other countries that need to prioritise testing capacity. The UK have done this (as well as prioritising frontline health workers where possible) and is now getting to grips with the number of tests it set itself to perform. Now, if you have the equivalent information (of who is being tested) for the other countries so as to validate your concern regards comparability...?
4) The "total tested" figure has been removed from the US CDC website (the US has no reliable and official source of such data), but it is hardly likely to be in the neighborhood of 5 million (as would have been required by the claim of 15.6/1000 citizens tested). This graph from the CDC indicates less than 1 million tests evaluated: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/images/lab-specimens-tested.jpg
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Sure, and that chart clearly indicates that it is measuring the tests at public labs. Given that private labs in the US are conducting c.90% of the tests, is there a reason you are ignoring them? The data behind the chart in the post I linked to certainly includes such testing at private labs, as far as possible.

Note, I am not saying the US, or UK, or any other country's government is competent or otherwise. I'm simply laying out some data that is publicly available on the matters of testing, infections etc. Most of it can probably be found on Wikipedia as well, if that is more to one's taste. If, however, someone tries to make an argument based on such data, I am interested to see how far the numbers do actually support it.
 
Quantum Quack said:
It will be very interesting to see how the COVID pandemic effects the Brexit Deal and how the UK will be able to survive the economic hit from both...

Sorry did your :biggrin: just turn into a :(....:tongue:
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I have not believed for some months now that there will be a Brexit deal.

The Brexiters that run the government are not even doing any of the work needed to implement the Withdrawal Agreement. Bozo appears set on reneging on his side of the bargain, thereby making the UK an unreliable banana republic. I think the Brexiters think they can blame all the economic chaos on the virus and nobody will notice that a no-deal exit is making it even worse. But the EU will be furious and may choose to make our lives hell if we renege, which they have plenty of ways of doing.

(The day I rely on some senile chump in Australia to provide me with insights into UK politics is a long way off. :D)
 
exchemist said:
I have not believed for some months now that there will be a Brexit deal.
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There will be a deal... of sorts... covering the important areas of air travel, security, some elements of cooperation etc. What I don't think there will be is an all-encompassing deal on trade. WTO rules will govern for quite a while, I think.
The Brexiters that run the government are not even doing any of the work needed to implement the Withdrawal Agreement. Bozo appears set on reneging on his side of the bargain, thereby making the UK an unreliable banana republic. I think the Brexiters think they can blame all the economic chaos on the virus and nobody will notice that a no-deal exit is making it even worse. But the EU will be furious and may choose to make our lives hell if we renege, which they have plenty of ways of doing.
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I think this is somewhat unfair; the pandemic has certainly put some things on hold, but reports suggest there is a new timetable for discussions to begin imminently. As for reneging, I don't think Boris has any intention of reneging, and I think he is fully set on the transition period ending at the end of 2020. Hopefully enough people in his party will still force the request for an extension should the need arise, to avoid any cliff-edge. And the pandemic at least gives a face-saving justification for asking for one.
Now, whether plans are in place for Northern Ireland so as to avoid any "backstop", and to what extent other matters are agreed, I have no idea, but I am sure the clown has the conviction to pull the UK away as planned, rightly or wrongly.
(The day I rely on some senile chump in Australia to provide me with insights into UK politics is a long way off. :D)
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:)
 
Sarkus said:
There will be a deal... of sorts... covering the important areas of air travel, security, some elements of cooperation etc. What I don't think there will be is an all-encompassing deal on trade. WTO rules will govern for quite a while, I think.
I think this is somewhat unfair; the pandemic has certainly put some things on hold, but reports suggest there is a new timetable for discussions to begin imminently. As for reneging, I don't think Boris has any intention of reneging, and I think he is fully set on the transition period ending at the end of 2020. Hopefully enough people in his party will still force the request for an extension should the need arise, to avoid any cliff-edge. And the pandemic at least gives a face-saving justification for asking for one.
Now, whether plans are in place for Northern Ireland so as to avoid any "backstop", and to what extent other matters are agreed, I have no idea, but I am sure the clown has the conviction to pull the UK away as planned, rightly or wrongly.
:)
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I see no sign of any work on the N Ireland issue, anywhere in government, which is something requiring very detailed preparation and engagement with business. It's not happening. There are definitely voices within the Tory party arguing for a "clean break" and Bozo has gone out of his way to pick a government full of Brexiters, rather than people with talent. I don't believe they are serious about a deal. I hope I'm wrong of course.

Here's an article about it from Today's Indie: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-office-belfast-uk-government-brexit-a9495776.html
 
billvon said:
And more general. Lockdowns are already being lifted, including in places that have had protests.
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Being specific, it was asked what would be the outcome if lockdown is lifted due to the protests.
Seattle responded that it's not going to be lifted [due to the protests].
You then responded to Seattle that "Of course it is; the only question is when.."

So in which countries do you think lockdowns are being lifted due to the protests? ;)
 
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