Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

exchemist said:
(The day I rely on some senile chump in Australia to provide me with insights into UK politics is a long way off. :D)
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I wasn't referring to UK politics.
Another blow to your deluded comprehension skills yes?
The little research I have done indicates an economic disaster of monumental scale, regardless of whether Brexit is negotiated or not...
​
then again ...
Never mind... you are not capable of addressing any specific issue with out the need to ad hominem..
Sarkus said:
Let me ask you: how do you see the UK not surviving?
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Figures currently bandied about indicate between 7.5% to 24% loss to economic activity for the UK and that is not including the impact of Brexit negotiated or other wise...
I am sure you are more than capable of describing the situation better than I am... but it doesn't look good.
 
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Well, this thread is about COVID19, so it would stand to reason that every post might have something to do with it. :wink:
 
Quantum Quack said:
The little research I have done indicates an economic disaster of monumental scale, regardless of whether Brexit is negotiated or not...
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How so? What disaster is indicated? And I return to my previous question: how do you see the UK economy failing?
Figures currently bandied about indicate between 7.5% to 24% loss to economic activity for the UK and that is not including the impact of Brexit negotiated or other wise...
Click to expand...
Those figures would appear to be due solely to the pandemic, and would be relatively short-term: e.g. while country is in lockdown, not as much trade is done. Take the country out of lockdown, trade picks up. Sure, we may have a relatively deep recession as a result, and it may last a while, but I do not think we are in too different a position to most other countries in that regard. The key risk is if large firms go out of business and their trade / jobs etc are lost on a longer term basis. That's why the government is putting in vast debt to prevent that happening. As a result we will be burdened with huge national debt going forward, but again, so will a large number of other major economies who are doing pretty much the same thing, including Europe, who haven't provided as large a bailout fund in terms of %GDP, but they're not shoring up their underlying economies to the extent of the UK. As a result, they may actually see their downturn take longer to recover. But who really knows how any of this will play out.

As for Brexit, it is/was forecast to cost the UK economy something like 6-7% over the next 5-10 years as a worst case (i.e. no deal, trading on WTO terms). This isn't a 6-7% shrink, but rather than, say, growth of 15% over that period, it will be something like growth of 8-9%. Sluggish, and we'll fall behind our European and other trading partners in that our economy will weaken relatively to theirs, but failure?? That is something you still have to not only define but then explain how you think it will happen.
I am sure you are more than capable of describing the situation better than I am... but it doesn't look good.
Click to expand...
That it doesn't look good is simply a statement of the current global economy due to the pandemic. For the UK to fail, as you seem to suggest it might, it surely has to be significantly worse than others, or else you are talking not about the UK specifically but the entire global economy failing?

To put things into perspective for you (figures taken from cursory stab at Google):
UK rescue package - estimated at... what... 500bn USD? GDP of 2.9 trillion USD - so package equates to c.17%
US package - estimated at 2,000bn USD? GDP of 20.5 trillion USD - so package equates to c.10%
(Europe - estimated at 1,500bn USD. GDP of c.18.3 trillion USD - so package equates to 8% - but this is only the central pot of support available to individual governments... i.e. support from the centre, not what individual countries are doing for themselves.)
Germany - rescue package of c.800bn USD - GDP of 4 trillion USD - so 20%.
Australia package - 189bn. GDP of c.1.45 trillion USD - so package equates to c.13%

Now, these packages undoubtedly cover different things, some may include government loans to businesses as well as actual handouts (UK furlough support etc), and the loans to businesses are really only adding to the debt if taken out and not subsequently repaid. The UK government has reserved an additional pot of c.GBP 300 billion for business loans, but so far only a tiny fraction have been issued.

So is the UK in any worse position than the rest of these countries? From a very top level one would have to say not particularly: everyone is in the same boat with regards the oncoming recession. The answer, as with most things, lies in the detail, and that may not become apparent until after the crisis has passed and we're left picking up the pieces. If a country is injecting more cash now in shoring up the foundations, then buildings may weather the storm and not as much will be needed in rebuilding. However, if it is injecting a lower amount of cash to move people out of the path, then it will need to spend more in the rebuild etc. The risk is that it spends heavily now to shore up the foundations but the building is destroyed anyway.
And who knows which strategy which country is taking, and which, if any, will work out best. I certainly don't.
 
Sarkus said:
How so? What disaster is indicated? And I return to my previous question: how do you see the UK economy failing?
Those figures would appear to be due solely to the pandemic, and would be relatively short-term: e.g. while country is in lockdown, not as much trade is done. Take the country out of lockdown, trade picks up. Sure, we may have a relatively deep recession as a result, and it may last a while, but I do not think we are in too different a position to most other countries in that regard. The key risk is if large firms go out of business and their trade / jobs etc are lost on a longer term basis. That's why the government is putting in vast debt to prevent that happening. As a result we will be burdened with huge national debt going forward, but again, so will a large number of other major economies who are doing pretty much the same thing, including Europe, who haven't provided as large a bailout fund in terms of %GDP, but they're not shoring up their underlying economies to the extent of the UK. As a result, they may actually see their downturn take longer to recover. But who really knows how any of this will play out.

As for Brexit, it is/was forecast to cost the UK economy something like 6-7% over the next 5-10 years as a worst case (i.e. no deal, trading on WTO terms). This isn't a 6-7% shrink, but rather than, say, growth of 15% over that period, it will be something like growth of 8-9%. Sluggish, and we'll fall behind our European and other trading partners in that our economy will weaken relatively to theirs, but failure?? That is something you still have to not only define but then explain how you think it will happen.
That it doesn't look good is simply a statement of the current global economy due to the pandemic. For the UK to fail, as you seem to suggest it might, it surely has to be significantly worse than others, or else you are talking not about the UK specifically but the entire global economy failing?

To put things into perspective for you (figures taken from cursory stab at Google):
UK rescue package - estimated at... what... 500bn USD? GDP of 2.9 trillion USD - so package equates to c.17%
US package - estimated at 2,000bn USD? GDP of 20.5 trillion USD - so package equates to c.10%
(Europe - estimated at 1,500bn USD. GDP of c.18.3 trillion USD - so package equates to 8% - but this is only the central pot of support available to individual governments... i.e. support from the centre, not what individual countries are doing for themselves.)
Germany - rescue package of c.800bn USD - GDP of 4 trillion USD - so 20%.
Australia package - 189bn. GDP of c.1.45 trillion USD - so package equates to c.13%

Now, these packages undoubtedly cover different things, some may include government loans to businesses as well as actual handouts (UK furlough support etc), and the loans to businesses are really only adding to the debt if taken out and not subsequently repaid. The UK government has reserved an additional pot of c.GBP 300 billion for business loans, but so far only a tiny fraction have been issued.

So is the UK in any worse position than the rest of these countries? From a very top level one would have to say not particularly: everyone is in the same boat with regards the oncoming recession. The answer, as with most things, lies in the detail, and that may not become apparent until after the crisis has passed and we're left picking up the pieces. If a country is injecting more cash now in shoring up the foundations, then buildings may weather the storm and not as much will be needed in rebuilding. However, if it is injecting a lower amount of cash to move people out of the path, then it will need to spend more in the rebuild etc. The risk is that it spends heavily now to shore up the foundations but the building is destroyed anyway.
And who knows which strategy which country is taking, and which, if any, will work out best. I certainly don't.
Click to expand...
QQ has predicted that the UK will fail, the US will fail so I guess the idea is that Australia will be the only survivor and will rule the world.
 
Sarkus said:
How so? What disaster is indicated? And I return to my previous question: how do you see the UK economy failing?
Those figures would appear to be due solely to the pandemic, and would be relatively short-term: e.g. while country is in lockdown, not as much trade is done. Take the country out of lockdown, trade picks up. Sure, we may have a relatively deep recession as a result, and it may last a while, but I do not think we are in too different a position to most other countries in that regard. The key risk is if large firms go out of business and their trade / jobs etc are lost on a longer term basis. That's why the government is putting in vast debt to prevent that happening. As a result we will be burdened with huge national debt going forward, but again, so will a large number of other major economies who are doing pretty much the same thing, including Europe, who haven't provided as large a bailout fund in terms of %GDP, but they're not shoring up their underlying economies to the extent of the UK. As a result, they may actually see their downturn take longer to recover. But who really knows how any of this will play out.

As for Brexit, it is/was forecast to cost the UK economy something like 6-7% over the next 5-10 years as a worst case (i.e. no deal, trading on WTO terms). This isn't a 6-7% shrink, but rather than, say, growth of 15% over that period, it will be something like growth of 8-9%. Sluggish, and we'll fall behind our European and other trading partners in that our economy will weaken relatively to theirs, but failure?? That is something you still have to not only define but then explain how you think it will happen.
That it doesn't look good is simply a statement of the current global economy due to the pandemic. For the UK to fail, as you seem to suggest it might, it surely has to be significantly worse than others, or else you are talking not about the UK specifically but the entire global economy failing?

To put things into perspective for you (figures taken from cursory stab at Google):
UK rescue package - estimated at... what... 500bn USD? GDP of 2.9 trillion USD - so package equates to c.17%
US package - estimated at 2,000bn USD? GDP of 20.5 trillion USD - so package equates to c.10%
(Europe - estimated at 1,500bn USD. GDP of c.18.3 trillion USD - so package equates to 8% - but this is only the central pot of support available to individual governments... i.e. support from the centre, not what individual countries are doing for themselves.)
Germany - rescue package of c.800bn USD - GDP of 4 trillion USD - so 20%.
Australia package - 189bn. GDP of c.1.45 trillion USD - so package equates to c.13%

Now, these packages undoubtedly cover different things, some may include government loans to businesses as well as actual handouts (UK furlough support etc), and the loans to businesses are really only adding to the debt if taken out and not subsequently repaid. The UK government has reserved an additional pot of c.GBP 300 billion for business loans, but so far only a tiny fraction have been issued.

So is the UK in any worse position than the rest of these countries? From a very top level one would have to say not particularly: everyone is in the same boat with regards the oncoming recession. The answer, as with most things, lies in the detail, and that may not become apparent until after the crisis has passed and we're left picking up the pieces. If a country is injecting more cash now in shoring up the foundations, then buildings may weather the storm and not as much will be needed in rebuilding. However, if it is injecting a lower amount of cash to move people out of the path, then it will need to spend more in the rebuild etc. The risk is that it spends heavily now to shore up the foundations but the building is destroyed anyway.
And who knows which strategy which country is taking, and which, if any, will work out best. I certainly don't.
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Thank you for your post.. and taking the time to compose it..

At least it is relatively equally disastrous for all nations..
But I wondered how the extra burden of Brexit in the middle of this mess will impact...and I guess we shall have to wait and see...

There was some loose speculation in the media here a while back that a hard Brexit had global ramifications that included impacting on Australia and now with the COVID pandemic, already weakened economies will weaken even more so.

BTW I didn't mean failure as in bankruptcy or insolvency even though I guess the whole global financial system is no doubt going to struggle especially if major financial hubs get hit hard due to loan defaults. A credit squeeze or shut down may be a lot more serious than the GFC was. ( but as you can tell I don't really know what I am talking about)

Australia is no doubt going to endure economic failing, but as you have stated the entire globe is in a similar position, so in relative terms the UK may end up succeeding...depending on circumstances impacting on other nations. Am I right is saying that it is a floating value? A relative value?
What more interests me is what this all means to the average family, the asset holder with a moderate mortgage. How their standard of living will be impacted upon.

For example:
Coffee beans or Cacao seeds are imported from heavily impacted nations. The cost of these products, Coffee, and Chocolate are already showing upward pressure. A supply diminishes due to the COVID the price will go up and the product will become scarce. The point being that we and no doubt you also are dependent on nations that may not be able to continue supply of not only essential commodities but also relatively luxury items like coffee and chocolate.
It is not only the value of currency but actually supply issues as well.

So how do you feel the standard of living will be impacted on, generally speaking...?

We already know of Pork and Beef supply problems in the USA but that is another issue..
 
Where is small businesses concerns here ?

If small businesses fail in the thousands then any economic recovery will be , in the bigger picture , will be stunted to the extreme .
 
Notice that Tony Fauci will not be questioned by congress . But only by the republican senate .

Also Tony Fauci invested monies into the Chinese lab and so did Canada ( ashamed to say ) .
 
billvon said:
USA, for one. In Oklahoma, a mask requirement was lifted due to protests (and near-riots, and one almost shooting.)
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The blatant attempt to intimidate authorities using the potential of gun violence will have a profound effect on when lock downs are lifted, as Governer's of various states weigh the pros and cons..
 
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