I presume that if the US is to win this war, there is some sort of clear objective. Does anyone know what it is? New government in Afghanistan? Destruction of Taliban in order to throw fuel onto the fire of civil war? The capture or exeution of Bin Laden?
Before you all start about how the US is going to win the war, it's worth looking at what winning the war would mean. My suspicion is that the US is not follish enough to attempt any sort of invasion - can't win that way. Most od the country is inaccessible - Afghans have years of experience of guerilla war and think nothing of trekking miles over mountains with a heavy calibre machine-gun strapped to their backs to lay an ambush, then disappear off into the mountains. This cannot be a convetional war, if war is the right word. Special forces will need to be used, but based closeby. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are possibilities.
But if this is just an effort to damage the Taliban and grab Bin Laden, then it's not a war in the traditional sense.
The Northern Alliance is not a viable alternative government. It may be true that the Taliban is unpopular, but that doesn not mean that the dispirate ethnic tribes of the north can form anything like a government. There is already huge tension among the various groups and upon establishing a government would almost certainly break down into civil war eventually. Regardless of who is in power in Afghanistan, there will always be an 'armed opposition movement'.
What are the objectives of this 'war'?
Before you all start about how the US is going to win the war, it's worth looking at what winning the war would mean. My suspicion is that the US is not follish enough to attempt any sort of invasion - can't win that way. Most od the country is inaccessible - Afghans have years of experience of guerilla war and think nothing of trekking miles over mountains with a heavy calibre machine-gun strapped to their backs to lay an ambush, then disappear off into the mountains. This cannot be a convetional war, if war is the right word. Special forces will need to be used, but based closeby. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan are possibilities.
But if this is just an effort to damage the Taliban and grab Bin Laden, then it's not a war in the traditional sense.
The Northern Alliance is not a viable alternative government. It may be true that the Taliban is unpopular, but that doesn not mean that the dispirate ethnic tribes of the north can form anything like a government. There is already huge tension among the various groups and upon establishing a government would almost certainly break down into civil war eventually. Regardless of who is in power in Afghanistan, there will always be an 'armed opposition movement'.
What are the objectives of this 'war'?
