The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[Futilitist]

What I was addressing is the slow rate of economic growth, in spite of low oil prices.

That sentence shows that your whole conception of the problem is just plain wrong. The slow rate of economic growth is because of low oil prices, not in spite of them. I have been saying for some time that low oil prices would not stimulate the economy as many, including you, expected. Now you are surprised.

Will you finally admit that the extra savings for oil consumers is being offset by the losses suffered by the oil industry?

That is rather different from "markets crashing".

So, you don't think the markets may crash in the near future?

But by all means carry on salivating about "a wave of defaults and bankruptcies". It keeps us all amused, at least.

I am not "salivating" about a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. I am trying to explain why we are about to have one. You seem desperate to deny that such a wave is coming. But, just to cover your bases if one does happen anyway, you're sure it must have some other explanation, even if that explanation makes no sense.



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

That sentence shows that your whole conception of the problem is just plain wrong. The slow rate of economic growth is because of low oil prices, not in spite of them. I have been saying for some time that low oil prices would not stimulate the economy as many, including you, expected. Now you are surprised.

Will you finally admit that the extra savings for oil consumers is being offset by the losses suffered by the oil industry?


So, you don't think the markets may crash in the near future?


I am not "salivating" about a wave of defaults and bankruptcies. I am trying to explain why we are about to have one. You seem desperate to deny that such a wave is coming. But, just to cover your bases if one does happen anyway, you're sure it must have some other explanation, even if that explanation makes no sense.



---Futilitist

OK I've finally had enough of your imbecilities. You will now be the next beneficiary of my new experimental policy on this forum .

......[click]........

 

[Futilitist]

OK I've finally had enough of your imbecilities. You will now be the next beneficiary of my new experimental policy on this forum .

......[click]........

Wow. You really don't have any good answers, do you? I brought up some pretty valid points, x. If you constantly shrink away from the debate, people might get the idea that you are afraid. Just saying.

(By the way, I dig your new experimental policy. No need to rush back. Think of something smart to say first. )



---Futilitist

 

[origin]

Here is what you wrote about your dire prediction.

Since my prediction, the DOW has fallen 1217 points, from 17367 down to 15500. And oil has fallen from 48.38 all the way down to 26.00!

Golly!!! The problem is that now the Dow is at 17,576.96 and oil is at 41.86.

Since the graph, above, was made, oil and stock prices have rebounded quite a bit. You probably claim to believe that oil and stock prices are going to continue upward. Yipee, everything is awesome! That is why you reactivated this thread to gloat when oil prices briefly went over 40.00 dollars.

The dow is higher than when you made your dire prediction and oil is about $6 1/2 dollars lower.

You are really floundering here and pretending that you are not. You were wrong (like so many times before) and you are pretending you are not wrong. You do realize that you are starting to sound rather delusional, don't you?

 

[krash661]

Here is what you wrote about your dire prediction.

Golly!!! The problem is that now the Dow is at 17,576.96 and oil is at 41.86.


The dow is higher than when you made your dire prediction and oil is about $6 1/2 dollars lower.

You are really floundering here and pretending that you are not. You were wrong (like so many times before) and you are pretending you are not wrong. You do realize that you are starting to sound rather delusional, don't you?

hilarious--- " starting to " ????????????????

 

[Futilitist]

The dow is higher than when you made your dire prediction and oil is about $6 1/2 dollars lower.

I guess you're going to keep doing this every time the markets go up a little. You need to be more patient. The crash that I have been talking about is going to be much bigger than these latest swings. They are just the prelude. We should expect to see increasing volatility as the markets near the edge of collapse.

After falling to around 15500, the DOW did bounce quite a bit higher than I expected it would. But oil fell all the way to 26.00 dollars! So that was a correct prediction. That is all I have ever claimed. I didn't say oil couldn't bounce on it's way down. Today it is around 40.00. Five days ago, it was 35.20. But a little more than a year and a half ago, it was over 110.00 dollars a barrel! The Etp model says that the yearly average price could possibly go as high as about 65.00 a barrel this year, 55.00 next year, and so on, on it's way to down to about 11.00 a barrel by 2021.

We are currently experiencing the initial stages of the multi-phasic collapse of the massively complex non-linear system known as Modern Industrial Civilization. You guys are very nitpicky about predicting specific events along the way with such super exacting timing. It really is silly. I have never claimed such accuracy. My "dire prediction" was an educated guess. Just my personal "Spidey sense" after many years of paying very close attention to the energy dilemma that you tirelessly deny even exists. But my little predictions are getting more and more accurate the more I learn. Apocalypse is the inevitable outcome of our exponential growth and reliance on fossil fuels. It is going to happen soon enough. Relax, enjoy the ride.



---Futilitist

 

[origin]

I guess you're going to keep doing this every time the markets go up a little. You need to be more patient. The crash that I have been talking about is going to be much bigger than these latest swings. They are just the prelude. We should expect to see increasing volatility as the markets near the edge of collapse.

So now I am confused. You said you made a dire prediction and you were right, the stock market went down. But then the stock market went up and your dire prediction was still right? Does that mean your dire prediction was that the stock market would lose some ground and then make it back up?

After falling to around 15500, the DOW did bounce quite a bit higher than I expected it would. But oil fell all the way to 26.00 dollars! So that was a correct prediction. That is all I have ever claimed. I didn't say oil couldn't bounce on it's way down. Today it is around 40.00. Five days ago, it was 35.20. But a little more than a year and a half ago, it was over 110.00 dollars a barrel! The Etp model says that the yearly average price could possibly go as high as about 65.00 a barrel this year, 55.00 next year, and so on, on it's way to down to about 11.00 a barrel by 2021.

At least you are moving your predictions out a bit (2021). But that is still only 5 years from now. Here is a prediction of mine - the price of oil will exceed the $55 per barrel next year (unfortunately).
It would be nice if your Etp model (Extremely Terrible Prediction Model) was right and oil will be $11 in 2021, but unfortunately oil is commodity and like all other commodities it is driven by (percieved and actual) supply and demand, not a misunderstanding of and misapplication of thermodynamics.

We are currently experiencing the initial stages of the multi-phasic collapse of the massively complex non-linear system known as Modern Industrial Civilization. You guys are very nitpicky about predicting specific events along the way with such super exacting timing. It really is silly. I have never claimed such accuracy. My "dire prediction" was an educated guess. Just my personal "Spidey sense" after many years of paying very close attention to the energy dilemma that you tirelessly deny even exists. But my little predictions are getting more and more accurate the more I learn. Apocalypse is inevitable outcome of our exponential growth and reliance on fossil fuels. It is going to happen soon enough. Relax, enjoy the ride.

Make a prediction then. When will the fall of civilization occur? You do not even have to be specific. So what do you think? Between now and Thursday? How about between yesterday and the year 3328?
Give it a shot!

 

[Russ_Watters]

We are currently experiencing the initial stages of the multi-phasic collapse of the massively complex non-linear system known as Modern Industrial Civilization. You guys are very nitpicky about predicting specific events along the way with such super exacting timing. It really is silly. I have never claimed such accuracy.

This super boring collapse still looks a lot more like growth than collapse. I'd settle for you being more in touch with current reality to start with, before even getting into the predictions!

I guess you're going to keep doing this every time the markets go up a little.

Pot;kettle. Most of the resurrection of your predictions coincide with bad economic data that really, seriously, honest this time guys, hey why are you laughing? is the start of the apocalypse. You've been doing that for 4 years. As entertaining as that is, it is also pretty sad.

 

[Futilitist]

So now I am confused.

Wait, now you are?

You said you made a dire prediction and you were right, the stock market went down. But then the stock market went up and your dire prediction was still right? Does that mean your dire prediction was that the stock market would lose some ground and then make it back up?

Dude, quit playing word games. I said I was right about oil falling to the low 30's or lower by January. It eventually fell to 26.00 dollars a barrel in mid February. I was obviously not correct about the timing of the stock market crash, and I said so very clearly in my last post. I still expect the markets to begin crashing very soon.

Here is a prediction of mine - the price of oil will exceed the 55perbarrelnextyear(unfortunately).

If I understand you correctly, you are predicting that oil will be over 55.00 dollars a barrel in 2017. Is that correct?

If oil drops below 20.00 dollars a barrel this year:

1. Will you be surprised?

---and---

2. Will you still expect it to go back up to over 55.00 by next year?

Make a prediction then. When will the fall of civilization occur? You do not even have to be specific. So what do you think? Between now and Thursday? How about between yesterday and the year 3328?
Give it a shot!

Between now and Thursday is not very likely. And between yesterday and the year 3328 is too inexact. I would say between now and about 2025 for rapid human die-off to completely run it's course. But I still think a massive stock market crash is coming very soon, to get the party started, likely before the end of this year, but probably much sooner. Is that exact enough for you?

This super boring collapse still looks a lot more like growth than collapse.

Only to you, Russ. Don't worry, the collapse is about to get more exciting. I can't predict when you will notice it, though. Like I said, I am not Nostradamus. I am Futilitist.



---Futilitist

 

[krash661]

So now I am confused. You said you made a dire prediction and you were right, the stock market went down. But then the stock market went up and your dire prediction was still right? Does that mean your dire prediction was that the stock market would lose some ground and then make it back up?


At least you are moving your predictions out a bit (2021). But that is still only 5 years from now. Here is a prediction of mine - the price of oil will exceed the $55 per barrel next year (unfortunately).
It would be nice if your Etp model (Extremely Terrible Prediction Model) was right and oil will be $11 in 2021, but unfortunately oil is commodity and like all other commodities it is driven by (percieved and actual) supply and demand, not a misunderstanding of and misapplication of thermodynamics.


Make a prediction then. When will the fall of civilization occur? You do not even have to be specific. So what do you think? Between now and Thursday? How about between yesterday and the year 3328?
Give it a shot!

it should have been noticed that his predictions are nothing more than usual cycles.

 

[krash661]

I still expect the markets to begin crashing very soon.

would that be, only, simply, because of the usual ten year boom and bust cycle?--of course it is, and nothing more. i predict there will be a sell-off and downturn within 2017-2019.

 

[origin]

Dude, quit playing word games. I said I was right about oil falling to the low 30's or lower by January. It eventually fell to 26.00 dollars a barrel in mid February. I was obviously not correct about the timing of the stock market crash, and I said so very clearly in my last post. I still expect the markets to begin crashing very soon.

So approximately when will the stock market crash?

If I understand you correctly, you are predicting that oil will be over 55.00 dollars a barrel in 2017. Is that correct?

Yes, that is what I wrote.

If oil drops below 20.00 dollars a barrel this year

:

1. Will you be surprised?

Yes.

---and---

2. Will you still expect it to go back up to over 55.00 by next year?

I don't expect it to go down to 20 in the first place, but yes, as I wrote I am predicting that the price of oil will exceed $55 per barrel 2017. Of course I realize that it is really tough to predict these things, but what the hell the worst that could happen is that I am wrong and gasoline won't be too expensive!

Between now and Thursday is not very likely. And between yesterday and the year 3328 is too inexact. I would say between now and about 2025 for rapid human die-off to completely run it's course. But I still think a massive stock market crash is coming very soon, to get the party started, likely before the end of this year, but probably much sooner. Is that exact enough for you?

Yeah, that's great. A stock market crash is generally accepted as a double digit decrease across the board in a few days, do you agree this is what is meant by a crash?

 

[Futilitist]

So approximately when will the stock market crash?

Later, in the same post I said:
"But I still think a massive stock market crash is coming very soon, to get the party started, likely before the end of this year, but probably much sooner. Is that exact enough for you?"

I don't expect it to go down to 20 in the first place, but yes, as I wrote I am predicting that the price of oil will exceed $55 per barrel 2017. Of course I realize that it is really tough to predict these things, but what the hell the worst that could happen is that I am wrong and gasoline won't be too expensive!

You forgot to factor in that I will make fun of your errant prediction.

Yeah, that's great. A stock market crash is generally accepted as a double digit decrease across the board in a few days, do you agree this is what is meant by a crash?

The wiki says several days. That is more than a few.

I don't necessarily agree with that definition. I don't think the short time frame is as important as the depth of the descent. If the markets drop, say, 75% or so in the course of the next three or four months, I would still call that a crash. But you would claim that my prediction was completely wrong because it took longer than several days. Don't be a nitpicker.

Hard times are coming. Soon. I predict it will be very obvious.



---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

Only to you, Russ.

But you of course know it is not just me, right? You'd be hard pressed to find a reputable economist judging the current economic climate negatively overall. The main thing pointing toward a recession is that things have been so good for so long that we're due. That's why there was no panic at January's stock market correction.

Don't worry, the collapse is about to get more exciting.

I'll be holding my breath. ....I've been holding my breath for the several years you've been promising that.

 

[origin]

You forgot to factor in that I will make fun of your errant prediction.

Based on your track record of predictions I wouldn't take any guff from you seriously anyway.

The wiki says several days. That is more than a few.

That is fine.

I don't necessarily agree with that definition. I don't think the short time frame is as important as the depth of the descent. If the markets drop, say, 75% or so in the course of the next three or four months, I would still call that a crash. But you would claim that my prediction was completely wrong because it took longer than several days.

I would agree with calling 75% drop over the course of an entire year would a crash. A slow motion horrific crash.

Don't be a nitpicker.

I think nitpicking is a requirement because you always have an excuse for everyone of your failed predictions.

Hard times are coming. Soon. I predict it will be very obvious.

That is the only constant that has been on this and your other threads - the end is almost upon us, it is just around the corner.

 

[Futilitist]

I would agree with calling 75% drop over the course of an entire year would a crash. A slow motion horrific crash.

Good. We agree on something.

But you of course know it is not just me, right? You'd be hard pressed to find a reputable economist judging the current economic climate negatively overall.

Reputable economist? That is an oxymoron!

Besides, if an economist that tells you the good news that you want to hear, you say they are "reputable". If they tell you bad news, you say they are not. To you, reputable just means they happen to agree with your baseless, massively over-optimistic view. You seem to have confused economist with cheerleader.

The main thing pointing toward a recession is that things have been so good for so long that we're due.

So you're saying it's all based on natural cycles. What goes up must come down. Interesting.

Well, civilization has experienced exponential growth for basically the last 10,000 years. So I guess that means we must be due for a big collapse. Right?



---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

Reputable economist? That is an oxymoron!

Besides, if an economist that tells you the good news that you want to hear, you say they are "reputable". If they tell you bad news, you say they are not. To you, reputable just means they happen to agree with your baseless, massively over-optimistic view. You seem to have confused economist with cheerleader.

Right. Reputable economist? Any prominent economist? How about facts? Remember when you saw a slight down-tick in the rate of growth two years ago and said that was the start of the collapse that would destroy civilization by that summer?

The economy is growing, unemployment is low and the stock market recovered from a barely-a-correction. You, on the other hand, have....what? Nothing. Only your own bold proclamations, which have amounted to nothing for four years.

If the economy is so great, why hasn't employment recovered back to pre-recession levels yet?

It has! 5.0% = full employment!

So you're saying it's all based on natural cycles. What goes up must come down. Interesting.

....and then back up again.

Well, civilization has experienced exponential growth for basically the last 10,000 years.

Not true. We had a big collapse in 2008-2009.

So I guess that means we must be due for a big collapse. Right?

Nope. A mild recession maybe, but a "big collapse" like 2008-9 is a once or twice a century thing. Blubbering doomsayers, on the other hands are a constant.

 

[Futilitist]

It has! 5.0% = full employment!

That number is total bullshit, Mr. Conservative Establishment Cheerleader Man. I doubt too many people actually believe it.

Not true. We had a big collapse in 2008-2009.

I think the Black Plague period may have been worse, as far as social collapses go. But we quickly recovered from that one. Despite what you say about supposed current "full" employment, the economy has not really recovered from the 2008 crash. And we are about to have an even worse market crash. The subsequent recession/depression will quickly morph into complete social collapse. The coming collapse and massive human die-off will dwarf any catastrophe that humanity has ever faced since the eruption of Toba.

A mild recession maybe, but a "big collapse" like 2008-9 is a once or twice a century thing.

Ha ha. Mild recession. Right.

So if we do have another big economic collapse, bigger than 2008-9, that would be a pretty significant thing, yes? If it happens, would it possibly be a sign that civilization might be collapsing?



---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

That number is total bullshit, Mr. Conservative Establishment Cheerleader Man. I doubt too many people actually believe it.

Right, because if you don't like the facts, just assume they are lies! Life is so much easier that way.

Despite what you say about supposed current "full" employment, the economy has not really recovered from the 2008 crash.

It was your claim, not mine:

My claim was that employment had not returned to pre-recession levels.

The number is what it is. You are arguing against reality, even while arguing that reality itself is a lie.

And we are about to have an even worse market crash. The subsequent recession/depression will quickly morph into complete social collapse. The coming collapse and massive human die-off will dwarf any catastrophe that humanity has ever faced since the eruption of Toba.

Wake me up when you have facts that demonstrate it.

So if we do have another big economic collapse, bigger than 2008-9, that would be a pretty significant thing, yes?

It certainly would.

If it happens, would it possibly be a sign that civilization might be collapsing?

Certainly not. We've had bigger collapses before, without civilization collapsing.

 

[Futilitist]

Wake me up when you have facts that demonstrate it.

After it is all over, perhaps we should compare notes.

What, if anything, could possibly convince you that civilization might actually collapse soon? What facts would you accept as proof to demonstrate that it will?

Why do you believe that civilization is impervious to collapse?



---Futilitist