Isn't it obvious? Facts: Extreme negative economic data. An obvious bubble might also be an indicator, though they are often tough to recognize.
I've never suggested any such thing.
The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed
- Thread starter Futilitist
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Have you read about world war II? There were approximately 60 million people killed in the war. There were thousands of cities reduced to rubble. Civilization did not collapse, not even close actually. What you're talking about is the possibility of difficult economic times, not the collapse of civilization.
It is common for people to think the times that they are living in are the most important times in history. We think that because this is the only times we have seen and they seem much more real than past history or the future. There have been proclamations of of the end of the world throughout history. There is nothing on the horizon that would make me think civilization is going to collapse. The only thing that I think could possibly result in a collapse would be an all out nuclear war or a large asteriod strike.
Just for fun here is a site of your breatheren and a partial list of their proclamations of THE END OF THE WORLD!!.
so do you consider yourself a cheerleader? --i for sure consider you as a cheerleader
Agreed. For me, I thought the Great Recession was partly a result of Peak Oil and that it would severely limit future economic growth. I hadn't yet processed the power of fracking. But even at that, "severely limited future economic growth" is a long, long way from the collapse of civilization. Heck, if you are in the right industry, the energy transition provides growth!
I do think "cheerleader" is the right word, because I don't think Fute is serious. He probably thinks he is, but he's not. I met a guy who was moving his family to an off the grid cabin in the Australian outback. That guy was serious.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
I think "energy transition" is right. We are starting to move away from fossil fuel and the more we do so the less important the oil price will be of course. I also suspect that the historical rates of economic growth may not be sustainable in the future, for reasons to do with the standards of living of the world's people. Once the Chinese start to get wealthier, better informed and to demand more money for their labour, the price of goods they produce will do so as well. I suspect that there will be not exactly a plateau but a lower rate of growth in the world, once everyone has got the basics. And of course the birthrate will drop and the world's population will plateau, too, which will tend to limit the rate of economic growth, even if GDP/capita still grows.
(But Fute/Asspain has a millenarian, quasi-religious conviction, so there's plainly no hope of convincing him. As each prediction is shown wrong, in turn, he will rewrite history and his predictions in order to claim the grand collapse is still just about to happen, just as millenarians have done throughout history.)
No amount of extreme negative economic data will ever be enough to convince you. You are an extreme fanatic.
It is tough to recognize that industrial civilization is the biggest bubble ever.
Yes you have, but I don't need to look for a quote since you strongly suggest that very thing in your next post!:
"The only thing that I think could possibly result in a collapse would be an all out nuclear war or a large asteriod strike."
~origin
So, why do you think civilization is impervious to collapse?
Hmmm...For me, I thought the Great Recession was totally the result of Peak Oil and that it would eventually lead to collapse.
That is no surprise. You are just as slow to process fracking's imminent demise.
Agreed.
Ra ra, sis boom ba.
So what?origin said:
And? Your point seems kind of irrelevant.origin said:
If we actually are near collapse, there will likely be some proclamations.
Really? The Etp model forecasts that oil will reach the zero state by 2021.origin said:
Have you considered what running out of oil might do? Oil currently supplies about 38% of total energy and about 90% of transportation fuels. If the Etp model is correct, and it sure seems to be so far, we are in big trouble.origin said:
No.krash661 said:
And I for sure consider you as an alien.krash661 said:
---Futilitist
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except that you cannot, simply, comprehend what exactly " extreme negative economic data " is, correct?
[shrug] Ok. From the guy who says up is down, then down is up, I know you'll just believe whatever you want, for any reason or no reason at all. Sorry, I can't teach you how to use a mirror - you will have to figure it out for yourself.
Of course, if you actually had some decent data...
Yeah, right. Still waiting!
Right - up is down, yes is no, rising prices are falling prices, growing economy is collapsing economy, agreeing that civilization could collapse is saying it can't.
Yep, we were both wrong.
Yep, I agree that you are a cheerleader.
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OPEC tried and failed to agree on a production freeze:
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/04/17/issues-arise-during-doha-oil-freeze-talks/83160426/
Oil prices set to drop; still too much supply. Inversocalypse to continue.
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2016/04/17/issues-arise-during-doha-oil-freeze-talks/83160426/
Oil prices set to drop; still too much supply. Inversocalypse to continue.
Are you actually surprised?
Dude, they couldn't even agree on a meaningless deal to freeze production at current record levels! The Doha meeting was a total waste of time because it is physically impossible for oil producers to cut production enough to raise prices. I explained all of this to you before, yet you desperately cling to the idea that OPEC and the Saudis could actually somehow control the price of oil! You are delusional! It is out of their hands. The price of oil is controlled by the laws of physics. The 2012 energy half way point initiated a major change in the petroleum production function. It began
a process where the end consumer was no longer able to acquire all the petroleum that the industry
produced. More of the energy from petroleum was being committed to the production of petroleum
than was being delivered to the consumer. This precipitated the 2014 price decline that reduced prices
by 50%. The energy delivered to the end consumer will continue to decline, and the end consumer
maximum affordability will decline with it. It will be necessary for the industry to reduce production to
compensate. The highest cost production fields will continually be shut in as the price falls below their
operating minimum.
~BWHill
---Futilitist
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Yes, purple I turnip know, elephant everyone's spaghetti crazy egg but dirt you. [pats you on the head and backs away slowly...]
Still, this one never stops being funny:
No wonder my car is getting fewer and fewer miles per tank of gas! And here I thought it was because I've been parking it in a pool of salt water! lol
I am afraid, Futilitist, you have hitched your wagon to a certified lunatic. That paragraph makes zero logical sense.
I guess you think that's funny. But your derision has absolutely no meaning if you can't actually prove I'm wrong. And you obviously can't. We are on page 69 of this thread and you haven't presented a single serious argument that even comes close to casting any doubt at all on the Etp model, let alone invalidating it. You are only embarrassing yourself. Keep up the good work.Russ_Watters said:
By the way, why do you think civilization is impervious to collapse?
Perhaps you should read it again, but more carefully this time:
The 2012 energy half way point initiated a major change in the petroleum production function. It began
a process where the end consumer was no longer able to acquire all the petroleum that the industry
produced. More of the energy from petroleum was being committed to the production of petroleum
than was being delivered to the consumer. This precipitated the 2014 price decline that reduced prices
by 50%. The energy delivered to the end consumer will continue to decline, and the end consumer
maximum affordability will decline with it. It will be necessary for the industry to reduce production to
compensate. The highest cost production fields will continually be shut in as the price falls below their
operating minimum.
~BWHill
That paragraph is completely logical. Maybe it is beyond your powers of comprehension.
Which part doesn't make sense to you? Please be specific.
---Futilitist
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Yep. I think you're funny too! Difference is, I do it on purpose
I have. Many times. Doesn't matter, you're stuck to your religion like a dinosaur in tar..... [/apt oil metaphor]
Why do you lie? Is it because you know you are full of crap and have switched to trolling instead of just acknowledging your error and moving on?
I am not lying. Why do you always play stupid word games?
Just up the page, you agreed with origin when he said that the only potential threats big enough cause the total collapse of civilization are:
1. An all out nuclear war
2. A large asteroid strike
If those really were the only threats to civilization, it would be fair to describe that as being rather impervious to collapse.
You need to broaden your thinking a bit. The threats you mentioned require a rather sudden, very large burst of energy to destroy civilization, i.e. too much energy. But maybe civilization could end with a whimper, instead of a bang, by running out of energy. Why is that so unbelievable to you?
You are true believer and a cheerleader, but you don't seem to be able accept the possibility that civilization could be the victim of it's own success, by simply running out of some essential and irreplaceable resource, say oil for example. Most reasonable people would at least consider the possibility. But not you, Russ. Everything is awesome!
---Futilitist
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
As Foote (an earlier incarnation of Fute?
) put it: "So she went into the garden to cut a cabbage-leaf to make an apple-pie; and at the same time a great she-bear, coming up the street, pops its head into the shop. "What! No soap?" So he died, and she very imprudently married the barber; and there were present the Picninnies, and the Joblillies, and the Garyulies, and the grand Panjandrum himself, with the little round button at top, and they all fell to playing the game of catch-as-catch-can till the gunpowder ran out at the heels of their boots."
[shrugs]
---Futilitist
---Futilitist
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