The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[Futilitist]

Yes I know he posts on Peak Oil. That is where I formed my high opinion of him.

This is new news. You have never claimed to have had any prior knowledge of BWHill before. If this is true, why didn't you say so earlier? If this is not true, why are you claiming it is? Do you post on peakoil.com?



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

You must be kidding. I checked the guy out when you quoted him at such length, back in the beginning. It is normal practice to check the credentials of a supposed expert.

 

[Futilitist]

You must be kidding. I checked the guy out when you quoted him at such length, back in the beginning. It is normal practice to check the credentials of a supposed expert.

What the hell makes you qualified to judge BWHill's credentials? Why should anyone trust your opinion? How could one check up on your supposed expertise? Perhaps there is some place on the internet where you actually make serious comments. Could you please provide a link?



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

What the hell makes you qualified to judge BWHill's credentials? Why should anyone trust your opinion? How could one check up on your supposed expertise? Perhaps there is some place on the internet where you actually make serious comments. Could you please provide a link?



---Futilitist

Haha very funny.

 

[exchemist]

What the hell makes you qualified to judge BWHill's credentials? Why should anyone trust your opinion? How could one check up on your supposed expertise? Perhaps there is some place on the internet where you actually make serious comments. Could you please provide a link?



---Futilitist

Sorry, forgot to post the link to where I make serious comments. Here you are: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/bond.155969/#post-3372492

 

[origin]

You are the one who looks pretty goddamn silly. What I said to you in the context of that particular post was not a prediction, and you know it.

So when you said oil prices would only fall that was not a prediction? What was it then; a joke, a lie or just some random thing to write? So you didn't believe what you wrote - weird, how are we suppose to know when you write something it is what you really mean?

 

[origin]

Deleted - this is a waste of time

 

[Beer w/Straw]

Why are you, Futilist, so interested in condemning others?

You're not trying to help, only reprimanding.

 

[Billy T]

Deleted - this is a waste of time

Agreed. I post only to help new comers see his posts have been consistently wrong, when enough time has past to check them. Recall he predicted in his old thread that there would be global economic collapse by 2015, and that was why his projections of the oil deficit of 4 to 8% each years would only hypothetically drive the price of gasoline in 2015 to 12 to 24 dollars per gallon range and 24 to 48 dollars the next year (2016).

Well there was no collapse, only a slight slow down (False prediction 1) and than means his price prediction are no longer "hypothetical." - Just wrong prediction 2, both in only one paragraph!

See those two false predictions here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/apocalypse-soon.133084/page-7

Despite the facts, which all can read, he still claims to have a perfect prediction record.

His whole thread "Apocalypse-soon" is now (several years after his last post there) by his own defintion of "soon" below is totally wrong!

... Very soon means very soon. I just said that was as exact as I could be for now. But days, weeks, months is basically soon. Years is not soon. ---Futilitist

Futilitist uses the "shot-gun" approach to predictions. I.e. predict oil price will fall & predict oil price will rise & predict there will not be much change - one will be correct and he will quote that one later.

 

[Russ_Watters]

Haha very funny.

I tend to feel sorry for the mouse when the cat bats it around until its head falls off, since the mouse didn't really do anything to deserve it. But at some point, this becomes so easy/pathetic it gets boring.

I posted an update here because this is a subject I've been interested in and we don't have a decent repository for tracking oil news, but we really could use a serious thread for it...

 

[Futilitist]

Haha very funny.

Thanks.

I posted an update here because this is a subject I've been interested in and we don't have a decent repository for tracking oil news, but we really could use a serious thread for it...

Wow, that is definitely your funniest post so far, Russ! A little derivative, though. You would seem a lot smarter if you wrote your own jokes.

I could accuse you of plagiarism, but imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

I tend to feel sorry for the mouse when the cat bats it around until its head falls off, since the mouse didn't really do anything to deserve it. But at some point, this becomes so easy/pathetic it gets boring.

I posted an update here because this is a subject I've been interested in and we don't have a decent repository for tracking oil news, but we really could use a serious thread for it...

I suppose we could, though frankly it goes up and down like a whore's drawers and there is a real risk of over-interpreting the changes. Basically we will have a glut until the Saudis call the dogs off, or there's another war, and who knows when either of those will occur. But, regarding your last post, it is certainly interesting to see the resilience of the US fracking industry.

Actually, I tend to see the failure of the world economy to respond to this so-called "shot in the arm" of lower energy prices as a sign of how little the modern world economy is dependent on energy costs.

 

[Futilitist]

Actually, I tend to see the failure of the world economy to respond to this so-called "shot in the arm" of lower energy prices as a sign of how little the modern world economy is dependent on energy costs.

Lower energy prices aren't necessarily always a "shot in the arm". You fail to recognize that lower energy prices for oil consumers can't really help the economy if those lower energy prices come directly at the expense of the oil producers. The economy is a zero sum game that is completely dependent on energy costs. How could it be otherwise?



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

Lower energy prices aren't necessarily always a "shot in the arm". You fail to recognize that lower energy prices for oil consumers can't really help the economy if those lower energy prices come directly at the expense of the oil producers. The economy is a zero sum game that is completely dependent on energy costs. How could it be otherwise?



---Futilitist

Easily.

 

[Futilitist]

Easily.

Wow. Good answer. It is hard to argue with that.



---Futilitist

 

[Russ_Watters]

I suppose we could, though frankly it goes up and down like a whore's drawers and there is a real risk of over-interpreting the changes. Basically we will have a glut until the Saudis call the dogs off, or there's another war, and who knows when either of those will occur. But, regarding your last post, it is certainly interesting to see the resilience of the US fracking industry.

Actually, I tend to see the failure of the world economy to respond to this so-called "shot in the arm" of lower energy prices as a sign of how little the modern world economy is dependent on energy costs.

I agree with basically all of that, and yes, it is interesting how resilient fracking has been, which is why I thought it interesting enough to post.

 

[Futilitist]

I agree with basically all of that, and yes, it is interesting how resilient fracking has been, which is why I thought it interesting enough to post.

That is awesome, Russ. Thanks for your super interesting comment. Keep up the good work.



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

I agree with basically all of that, and yes, it is interesting how resilient fracking has been, which is why I thought it interesting enough to post.

Another thought I have about all this is that, in general, large swings and unpredictability are BAD for business. Everyone feels it is safe to invest when conditions are stable, even if costs may not be as low as they might like. But in an unpredictable world, a lot of enterprises cannot plan, cannot therefore optimise - and we end up with a sub-optimal economy across the board. We do seem to be suffering from a lot of uncertainty at present, whether it be the future intentions of KSA or Iran (or Brazil or Venezuela, come to think of it), or the US election farce, or Putin's games in the Middle East and the effect of the refugee crisis on the EU. Also I still have the feeling that the Chinese are due for a shake-out of their various bubbles........

I'm sure all this is weighing on economic growth prospects - as of course will be the cost of the investments that have gone bad as a result of various commodities, including oil, dropping in price at the end of the China boom.

 

[Futilitist]

Another thought I have about all this is that, in general, large swings and unpredictability are BAD for business. Everyone feels it is safe to invest when conditions are stable, even if costs may not be as low as they might like. But in an unpredictable world, a lot of enterprises cannot plan, cannot therefore optimise - and we end up with a sub-optimal economy across the board. We do seem to be suffering from a lot of uncertainty at present, whether it be the future intentions of KSA or Iran (or Brazil or Venezuela, come to think of it), or the US election farce, or Putin's games in the Middle East and the effect of the refugee crisis on the EU. Also I still have the feeling that the Chinese are due for a shake-out of their various bubbles........

I'm sure all this is weighing on economic growth prospects - as of course will be the cost of the investments that have gone bad as a result of various commodities, including oil, dropping in price at the end of the China boom.

Yes, I originally brought up the probability of a wave of defaults and bankruptcies as a result of the ongoing low oil price. So I guess we finally agree on something. But gosh, exchemist, why is your outlook suddenly so gloomy? It is almost like you sense some kind of serious economic downturn coming.

Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if the markets were to start crashing soon? Then there would be no way to tell which one of us was right!



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

Yes, I originally brought up the probability of a wave of defaults and bankruptcies as a result of the ongoing low oil price. So I guess we finally agree on something. But gosh, exchemist, why is your outlook suddenly so gloomy? It is almost like you sense some kind of serious economic downturn coming.

Wouldn't it be an amazing coincidence if the markets were to start crashing soon? Then there would be no way to tell which one of us was right!



---Futilitist

What I was addressing is the slow rate of economic growth, in spite of low oil prices. That is rather different from "markets crashing".

But by all means carry on salivating about "a wave of defaults and bankruptcies". It keeps us all amused, at least.

Thinking about it, you could be a good candidate for my new experimental policy for managing cranks and nitwits. I'll give it some thought........Asspain.