The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

[origin]

So a few years back you (who are never wrong) stated this.

I think the stock markets are due for a very large correction (still known as a crash) as the US falls into recession again (happening now). We might not see major social unrest (hard to quantify) until the summer. But there will be no recovery from the next recession. The recession/depression will morph into full scale social collapse, eventually, as the monetary system fails, probably from a major sovereign default in Europe. Total collapse might not begin for a few years (unlikely), depending on the reactions of governments to all of this, although an immediate collapse would not surprise me (I think sooner is more likely than later).

Yikes, imminent complete social collapse, monetary system failure, cats sleeping with dogs...

And yet, you also say:

Based on the second law of thermodynamics, the Etp model forecasts that the yearly average price of oil will fall to around $11 a barrel by 2021.

So WTF? Does that mean after the Armageddon it will be cheaper to drive to Disney World than it is today? Well at least we have that!

 

[krash661]

3) I seriously doubt any of us will be posting here a year from now.

today is april 8TH 2016.

 

[krash661]

Oh, I get it now. That's your lame excuse for your lame prediction. Yes, you and most analysts were wrong. But I was right.



---Futilitist

from " futilitist":

"After 2015, we will cross over into permanent depletion. That means about a 4-8 percent shortfall every year from then on. That is up to 2X as bad as the first oil shock in the 1970's, over and over again, every year. Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12−24 a gallon the first year, and 24−48 a gallon the next, except that the economy will completely collapse before that can happen.--approximately Aug 24, 2015 "

" Yes. My statement above is basically correct. After 2015 we will very likely cross over into permanent depletion. That is about to happen when the frackers go bust.
I said that because of depletion, the oil price would have to "Hypothetically" rise to levels that are clearly impossible. I did not say that those prices would ever be reached. "

" I had no knowledge of this model at the time I made the quote you keep harping on. [...] We have more information since that quote and so we can fine tune the forecast. "

" No. Of course not. You are so insulting. The OP is pulled from my confirmation of the Etp model at peakoil.com, on the Etp model thread. I post there as Whatever, but I sign my posts Futilitist, just like here. Follow the link. You might learn something. "

" I recently ran across an amazing physics model of the thermodynamic life cycle of oil production.--Futilitist, Apr 10, 2015 "

i would like a link to the reference of THE 2 years ago conversation--simply, just so i can look at and show all of the contradictions and manipulating from futitlitist.

 

[krash661]

what i also find odd is that you are clearly claiming that YOU are correct in these forecast--except here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/th...irically-confirmed.152487/page-2#post-3323426 --you clearly state this:
" I did not create the Etp model. BW Hill did. He named it. "

 

[Futilitist]

So a few years back you (who are never wrong) stated this.

Who said they were "never wrong"? I have made no such a claim. I just said I was right about my oil price forecast. Sheesh.

The upcoming apocalypse (social collapse and human die off) is a once in 10,000 year event. Civilization is a massive, complex non-linear system, and predicting the exact date of it's demise is obviously impossible. But if I am off by a few months, or even a few years, in my estimation of the timing of the onset of collapse, I am still *WAY* more right than any of you. You guys actually claim that it can't ever happen! Ha ha!



---Futilitist

 

[origin]

I just said I was right about my oil price forecast. Sheesh.

But you weren't! You were wrong.
You said this:

You sound like you almost believe that. Well, I guess this is goodbye then, since we'll obviously never see each other again, because oil prices are only going down.
---Futilitist

That prediction is wrong.
That means you were wrong on your oil price forecast, get it, wrong, not right, incorrect, in error, etc.

Can you understand that??

You look pretty goddamn silly saying your forecast is right when your forecast is clearly wrong. Don't you realize other people can see that you are claiming you were right when your own words are there in black and white refuting your claim???

 

[krash661]

I just said I was right about my oil price forecast. Sheesh.

yeah, about that-- i noticed that the dates and such of this--it is odd how these dates are out of sync and other such-es that are involved. and now i am too assume if i dig even deeper, i will find more obscene nonsense from you.

The upcoming apocalypse (social collapse and human die off) is a once in 10,000 year event. Civilization is a massive, complex non-linear system, and predicting the exact date of it's demise is obviously impossible.

ahh-besides of the obvious change-up, then explain this:
" After 2015 we will very likely cross over into permanent depletion. " and now you are saying this: " It doesn't matter who started the glut. The real issue is that it isn't ending any time soon. That means lower oil prices, and that is not good news. But it is totally consistent with my forecast! "
-- i am struggling to see the consistency, along with this comment: " I have been saying all along that we are having an oil glut! I have been consistently saying the same thing since beginning of this thread, and you know it. Quit trying to start over on every page to fake out the readers. It is very intellectually dishonest. "-- do you not realize that these two comments of yours are stating the opposite of each other?--first, you scream depletion will be the reason, and now you are clearly stating that the glut is the reason-- odd.

But if I am off by a few months, or even a few years, in my estimation of the timing of the onset of collapse, I am still *WAY* more right than any of you.

how typical and comical-- in other words, " as long as i scream it will happen for years, eventually i will be proven right.." you do realize that this is the oldest trick in the book, correct?

You guys actually claim that it will never happen! Ha ha!

and you have been endlessly, consistently, stating it will every year now from what i have seen and since 2011/12-ish, from what i have been gathering, and when it does not, you simply change your words and forecast--which has been clearly shown that you are.

 

[Billy T]

... I just said I was right about my oil price forecast. … ---Futilitist

Then either you lie, or I only thought I was watching oil prices in 2015 as you predicted this:

"After 2015, we will cross over into permanent {oil} depletion. That means about a 4-8 percent shortfall every year from then on. ... Hypothetically, gasoline will be 12 - 24 a gallon the first year, and 24 - 48 {dollars/ gallon} the next, except that the economy will completely collapse before that can happen. Alternatives are not capable of replacing oil, and even if they were, we have run out of time to react." **

The above quote is part of his post 128 here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/apocalypse-soon.133084/page-7

You predicted things than have not happened, not even getting the direction of the oil price change correct! The price of gasoline did NOT surge up to a range of 12 - 24 dollars per gallon in 2015 - it FELL to 35 to 40% of what it was when you predicted that huge rise!

Likewise your prediction of a "complete economic collapse" before 2015 did not happen. Yes there was a slow down in the rate of growth, but that is not "complete collapse."

It takes a huge ego to claim: "I was right about my oil price forecast."when time proved you were very badly wrong. Some of us remember what your were predicting in your first thread here. Now you predict the opposite from your earlier predictions. Keep trying. Eventually at least one of your changing predictions will be correct.

** BTW, ALL use of gasoline could be replaced by sugar cane alcohol, in less than a decade. It would take about that long to bring the needed abandoned pasture land required into cane production and make many more distillation plants , one each within 250 miles max of the cane growing fields (cane is too bulky and low in value to transport more than about 250 miles with a profit)
As I have noted before: that makes a lot of low skill jobs, often for people who now have none. Making them purchaser of first world products, not to mention that huge reduction in CO2 release. Sugar cane alcohol is slightly CO2 negative - net removal of some from the air. A huge win-win especially for future generation as sustainable TOO, which finite oil is not.

 

[Futilitist]

You need some new material, BillyT.

But you weren't! You were wrong.
You said this:

That prediction is wrong.
That means you were wrong on your oil price forecast, get it, wrong, not right, incorrect, in error, etc.

Can you understand that??

You look pretty goddamn silly saying your forecast is right when your forecast is clearly wrong. Don't you realize other people can see that you are claiming you were right when your own words are there in black and white refuting your claim???

You are the one who looks pretty goddamn silly. What I said to you in the context of that particular post was not a prediction, and you know it.

Here was how I originally claimed that my actual prediction was correct (from page 59 of this thread):

Just to be clear, here was my prediction:

"I think the economy is at a critical phase right now. I believe we are about to have a stock market crash. I would guess that the price of oil will soon (before 2016) drop to somewhere in the low 30s or possibly even lower."
~Futilitist, Aug 7, 2015

Here is a graph of how my prediction has turned out so far:

Since my prediction, the DOW has fallen 1217 points, from 17367 down to 15500. And oil has fallen from 48.38 all the way down to 26.00!

------
So I was right about that! (The oil price part. But the stock markets are still going to crash)

Since the graph, above, was made, oil and stock prices have rebounded quite a bit. You probably claim to believe that oil and stock prices are going to continue upward. Yipee, everything is awesome! That is why you reactivated this thread to gloat when oil prices briefly went over 40.00 dollars.

I'm going to step out on a limb here and make another bold prediction. Oil prices are about to fall again and so are the stock markets. Both will make new lows. Very soon. That is as exact as I can be for now.

Enjoy your weekend.


---Futilitist

 

[Billy T]

You need some new material, BillyT....---Futilitist

Why? Only by quoting your old predictions for the current era, can we show how false / incorrect your predicitions are. No one can prove what you now predict (very changed from you earlier preditions) is false, but as I said if you keep making new predictions that differ strongly from your older ones, eventually one will be correct.

 

[Billy T]

... I'm going to step out on a limb here and make another bold prediction. Oil prices are about to fall again and so are the stock markets. Both will make new lows. Very soon. That is as exact as I can be for now. ... ---Futilitist

Is "very soon" days, weeks, months or years? Here is what happened today:

DJIA +35.00 17576.96 +0.20 Closed 4:15 PM
S&P 500 +5.69 2047.60 +0.28Closed 4:20 PM
FTSE 100 Future +74.00 6151.00 +1.22Closed 4:00 PM
Nikkei 225 Future +50.00 15880.00 +0.32 2:00 PM

I.e. all going up, but that is just one day.

"new lows" compared to what or when? Good planning: You keep it too vague to be a prediction. At least answer how long before DJIA goes below 1700 but below 1600 would be more impressive as more interesting than just random moves.

 

[exchemist]

Why? Only by quoting your old predictions for the current era, can we show how false / incorrect your predicitions are. No one can prove what you now predict (very changed from you earlier preditions) is false, but as I said if you keep making new predictions that differ strongly from your older ones, eventually one will be correct.

You just don't understand. It's all to do with nested control volumes.

 

[Futilitist]

Why? Only by quoting your old predictions for the current era, can we show how false / incorrect your predicitions are. No one can prove what you now predict (very changed from you earlier preditions) is false, but as I said if you keep making new predictions that differ strongly from your older ones, eventually one will be correct.

The old prediction you keep bringing up endlessly was not incorrect. You just don't know how to read. This has been explained to you dozens of times already. I will not bother with it again.

Is "very soon" days, weeks, months or years? Here is what happened today:

DJIA +35.00 17576.96 +0.20 Closed 4:15 PM
S&P 500 +5.69 2047.60 +0.28Closed 4:20 PM
FTSE 100 Future +74.00 6151.00 +1.22Closed 4:00 PM
Nikkei 225 Future +50.00 15880.00 +0.32 2:00 PM

I.e. all going up, but that is just one day.

Yep. That was just one day.

Very soon means very soon. I just said that was as exact as I could be for now. But days, weeks, months is basically soon. Years is not soon.



---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

You just don't understand. It's all to do with nested control volumes.

Is that the best you got? I thought you did this for the humor.

You guys seem a little agitated lately. Are you worried about something?



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

You guys

Asspain has been jolly quiet on The Science Forum, I notice, ever since I pointed out his similarity to you, Fute. Why doesn't he air his ideas there any more, I wonder?

 

[Billy T]

The old prediction you keep bringing up endlessly was not incorrect. You just don't know how to read. This has been explained to you dozens of times already. I will not bother with it again.

you said that the huge price increase was hypotetical as economy would collape before 2015, but it did not (first failed prediction) so they ceased to be "hypotentical" - just false. (second failed predictions)

.. But days, weeks, months is basically soon. Years is not soon.

How many months is just "soon" instead of "very soon"? For example is less than three months "very soon" or just "soon."

With undefined "very soon" and undefined "new lows" you predict nothing as much too vague to be a prediction.

 

[Futilitist]

Asspain has been jolly quiet on The Science Forum, I notice, ever since I pointed out his similarity to you, Fute.

Correlation is not necessarily causation, x.



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

Is that the best you got? I thought you did this for the humor.

You guys seem a little agitated lately. Are you worried about something?



---Futilitist

Not agitated, just thought it was time to check in and get the latest thermodynamic wisdom from BW Hill. (And remember: it's all about nested control volumes - and never mind the calorific value of the oil.)

 

[Futilitist]

Not agitated, just thought it was time to check in and get the latest thermodynamic wisdom from BW Hill. (And remember: it's all about nested control volumes - and never mind the calorific value of the oil.)

BWHill is a very smart guy. He posts regularly on peakoil.com. You should check it out sometime. You might actually learn something.



---Futilitist

 

[exchemist]

BWHill is a very smart guy. He posts regularly on peakoil.com. You should check it out sometime. You might actually learn something.



---Futilitist

Yes I know he posts on Peak Oil. That is where I formed my high opinion of him.