heflores,
Let's play with probability to find evidance, because I think you have already shown me that exact solution can no be reached. I'm a little rusty on probability, 5 years out of school now, so I welcome corrections on calculations
Let us say hypothetically the following:
1- The probability of existance of a creator is 40%, you may select a confidence level if you wish.
2- Then that makes the probability that the creator does not exist 60% with a confidence interval.
3- In the 40% probability that a creator exist, there's a 100% chance of afterlife judgement of the soul and a soul abode in a hell or heaven.
4- In the 60% probability that the creator does not exist, there's zero chance of an afterlife, soul torture or reward.
Let's solve for the probabiilty of the soul abiding in heaven or hell?
I have started several threads in the past that postulate the following -
If the dualist proposition is not true then the relevance of a deity is of no consequence. The idea is that if we have no soul and death is a permanent cessation of our existence then concepts like heaven and hell are null and then what is the point of a god?
It seems to me that before we discuss whether gods exist or not we should first establish that souls exist. In terms of numbers this should be a much easier task, since there is only meant to be one god, and he could be hiding, but there should be as many souls as there are live people, several billion I believe, and there should be souls hanging around somewhere for the many millions of people that have died in the entire history of mankind.
So with so many billions of sources of evidence one would think that at sometime a soul would have made itself known to the physical world. But the evidence is zilch. The best claims seem to come from NDEs (Near Death Experience) victims who state that as they were dying they were able to look down on their bodies, etc, and there was a white light and so on. All of these victims have one thing in common; they were all suffering from brain trauma. As the brain is deprived of oxygen and other nutrients it begins to behave erratically. Any claims made by such people must of course be highly suspect. In the laboratory the use of recreational drugs (mind altering) can produce the same effects.
So where does that leave us for evidence of souls? It looks like zero evidence and massive unsupported speculation. I kind of trust the evidence scenario rather than the fantasies so I'll estimate a probability that souls exist, based on the evidence, as ZERO.
Now if souls do not exist then heaven and hell are meaningless places since they would be always empty, and without these places having a meaning then a god would have nothing with which to reward or punish his worshippers. In which case why worship such a useless entity?
So before you play games of speculative probability guessing you need to establish, discover, or create some credible evidence that shows that souls exist. Until then the question of whether a creator exists or not is irrelevant.