Oil Reserves in the U.S. Upped

[iceaura]

If those in power knew for sure that "we are running out opf oil in 2-3 decades'" things would be much, much different. After all we all live on the same planet.

How's that ? The wealthy and powerful would act wisely and for the benefit of others ?

We're not running out of oil - we're running out of cheap oil. They don't worry so much about that.

 

[ElectricFetus]

How's that ? The wealthy and powerful would act wisely and for the benefit of others ?

We're not running out of oil - we're running out of cheap oil. They don't worry so much about that.

Glad someone gets the difference between "running out of oil" which we are not, and running out of cheap oil, which we have already done. Point of fact is their trillions of tons of "oil" in tar sands and oil shale but the cost of extraction and conversion into fuel on a scale to replace the depleting conventional oil is going to fuck our economy for years to come, it simply can't be done, a combine concert of alternatives might be able to replace the growing gap between demand and production of oil.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Correct, you take the energy in the fuel recovered minus the energy you used to extract and refine it, and you get the result. In the case of fossil fuel sources like shale, the result is ever diminishing, because it takes more energy to extract and in the end, it contains less energy due to it's inherent quality.

Here's a nice summary of future trends from the Colbert Report and one of my favorite authors on the subject:
http://www.comedycentral.com/colbertreport/videos.jhtml?videoId=167418

Non-manmade energy inputs
The natural or original sources of energy are not usually included in the calculation of energy invested, only the human-applied sources. For example in the case of biofuels the solar insolation driving photosynthesis is not included, and the energy used in the stellar synthesis of fissile elements is not included for nuclear fission. The energy returned includes any usable energy and not wasted heat for example.

If you don't use the energy value of the fuel recovered, you will always be at a energy deficit.

If the net results of the find is greater cost than the net benefit produced the find is not economically viable, simple economics.

Your example is simple mental masturbation to prove a preconceived point, much as the old joke that you only work one day a year, and the boss isn't going to let you take that day off.

There are 365 days per year available for work. There are 52 weeks a year in which you already get 2 days off per week, leaving 261 days available for work. Since you spend 16 hours each day away from work, you have used up 170 days, leaving 91 days available. You spend 30 minutes a day on a coffee break. That accounts for 23 days each year, leaving only 68 days available. With one hour for lunch period each day you use up another 46 days, leaving only 22 days available to work. You normally spend 2 days a year for sick leave. This leaves you only 20 days available for work. We are off for 5 holidays per year, so your available working time is down to 15 days. We generously give you 2 weeks off for vacation per year. This only leaves 1 day available for work.

This is all your example is worthless as proof that we expend more energy to get less energy in return.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Glad someone gets the difference between "running out of oil" which we are not, and running out of cheap oil, which we have already done. Point of fact is their trillions of tons of "oil" in tar sands and oil shale but the cost of extraction and conversion into fuel on a scale to replace the depleting conventional oil is going to fuck our economy for years to come, it simply can't be done, a combine concert of alternatives might be able to replace the growing gap between demand and production of oil.

I find it interesting that again you admit that we are not RUNNING OUT OF OIL, yes it will be more expensive in the future,

ElectricFetus "ADMITS THAT WE ARE NOT RUNNING OUT OF OIL!!!!"

If it take more to find that oil simple economics says it will cost more to produce that oil, and Energy Policies, should not be set to drive that price up by holding back capacity, be it in exploration, recovery, or refining, that is what I have been pointing out all along, poor energy policy has created a artificial choking off of capacity, in exploration, drilling platforms, and refining capacity.

1. If you don't have the permits to look for oil, you won't find oil.

2. If you don't have the economic incentive to build Drilling Platforms and Rigs, there is a shortage of capacity to recover that oil.

3. If you don't build new refineries, there is a shortage of capacity to refine that oil.

4. If you don't build the Storage Facilities, you don't have the capacity to have a reserve for emergencies that happen due to natural and man made reductions of the flow of oil to the ECONOMY.

Energy Policies, and lack of Capacity= INFLATED ENERGY PRICES.

 

[ElectricFetus]

wait? I been talking about the end of CHEAP Oil for some time now.

exploration and rapid mining will only compound the problem. There simply no way capacity can match demand anymore, even if we were to mine every last reserve immediately it would take years for them to reach full capacity. They would not be able to match the demand by then either, at best they would plateau the peak as the giant oil field hit major decline and the new expensive ones manage only to cover the big ones losses, but once the new fields or the old fields which are in force over-extraction using the best modern technology can do, give out, production will plummet extremely rapidly, much faster then if we had just let it peak and fall to begin with, there would definitely not be enough time to adapt then. We need alternative energy sources, not over ramped exploration and mining, we need to implement them fast, faster then a free market would, because a free market only waits until after the fact.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

wait? I been talking about the end of CHEAP Oil for some time now.

exploration and rapid mining will only compound the problem. There simply no way capacity can match demand anymore, even if we were to mine every last reserve immediately it would take years for them to reach full capacity. They would not be able to match the demand by then either, at best they would plateau the peak as the giant oil field hit major decline and the new expensive ones manage only to cover the big ones losses, but once the new fields or the old fields which are in force over-extraction using the best modern technology can do, give out, production will plummet extremely rapidly, much faster then if we had just let it peak and fall to begin with, there would definitely not be enough time to adapt then. We need alternative energy sources, not over ramped exploration and mining, we need to implement them fast, faster then a free market would, because a free market only waits until after the fact.

Now give me something other than you opinion, that is not what I am finding as I research my responses to yours and so many others post.

It also isn't what I am reading from the E&P reports, as much as you hate to hear it, since 2000, 77 new, billion + barrel, and Trillion + CFG, economically viable finds around the world, a further, 62 proven as economical, sites in the latest report, out of 128 listed blocks leases, with 66 yet to be explored, and more site opened for lease, and exploration.

(Those site have been found using the Russians A-Biotic theory for where to look for oil.)

Looking for it where it isn't suppose to be.



Capacity and Energy Policy, that is the constriction of the supply today, not lack of raw product.

 

[spidergoat]

Constriction of supply isn't as much lack of exploration, drilling, or being limited by legislation as the simply finite supply of oil on the planet, especially the stuff that's good quality and easy to get to. As the demand goes up, the energy required to get it goes up, and the quality goes down, the economics will reach a point when it's just not possible to sustain a society as we have been doing based on it. You can drill in ANWAR if you want another 3 months supply. These new "finds" are not the fields like the Saudis control, the only kind of finds which would make an appreciable difference. You don't just need more finds, but an ever increasing number of finds, as China and other countries increase their own usage. No alternative energy source can make up for it either. Our way of life is coming to an end.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Constriction of supply isn't as much lack of exploration, drilling, or being limited by legislation as the simply finite supply of oil on the planet, especially the stuff that's good quality and easy to get to. As the demand goes up, the energy required to get it goes up, and the quality goes down, the economics will reach a point when it's just not possible to sustain a society as we have been doing based on it. You can drill in ANWAR if you want another 3 months supply. These new "finds" are not the fields like the Saudis control, the only kind of finds which would make an appreciable difference. You don't just need more finds, but an ever increasing number of finds, as China and other countries increase their own usage. No alternative energy source can make up for it either. Our way of life is coming to an end.

Saudi field are high sulfur oil, and many of the new fields are light sweet, so no they are not like those the Saudis control, nothing at all.

Capacity is still the problem, finding the new fields isn't the problem.

In the days before the Russian Abiotic theory, oilmen thought that they were doing good if 1 in 10 holes hit oil, today with the new technology they are hitting on 4 in 10,

From Paul Mann, (For some reason I thought his first name was John) PH.D, University of Texas' Jackson School of Geosciences,

Geophysicists and exploration geologists who look for oil and gas fields classify the subsurface characteristics, or tectonic setting, of geological structures that contain hydrocarbons. Any one oil and gas field may reflect influences from multiple geological periods and events, but geoscientists often attempt to characterize a field based on the dominant geological event that influenced the structure's ability to trap and contain oil and gas in recoverable quantities.

A majority of the world's giant oil and gas fields exist in two characteristic tectonic settings—passive margin and rift environments. Passive margins are found along the edges of major ocean basins, such as the Atlantic coast of Brazil where oil and gas has been located in large quantities in the Campos basin. Rifts are oceanic ridges formed when tectonic plates separate and a new crust is created. The North Sea is an example of a rift setting associated with prodigious hydrocarbon reserves.[5] Geoscientists theorize that both zones are especially conducive to forming giant oil and gas fields when they are distant from active tectonic areas. Stability appears to be conducive to trapping and retaining hydrocarbons under the subsurface.

Four other common tectonic settings, including collisional margins, strike-slip margins, and subduction margins, are associated with the formation of giant oil and gas fields, though not to the dominant extent of passive margin and rift settings.

Based on the locations of past giants, Mann et al. predicted new discoveries of giant oil and gas fields would mainly be made in passive margin and rift environments, especially in deepwater basins. They also predicted that existing areas that have produced giant fields would be likely targets for new discoveries of "elephants," as the fields are sometimes known in the oil and gas industry.

Data from 2000-2007 reflect the accuracy of their predictions. The 79 new giant oil and gas fields discovered from 2000-2007 tended to be located in similar tectonic settings as the previously documented giants from 1868-2000, with 36 percent along passive margins, 30 percent in rift zones or overlying sags (structures associated with rifts), and 20 percent in collisional zones.

Looking to the future, geoscientists foresee a continuation of the recent trend of discovering more giant gas fields than oil fields. Two major continental regions—Antarctica and the Arctic—remain largely unexplored. Beyond them, however, trends suggest that remaining giant fields will be discovered in "in-fill" areas where past giants have been clustered and in frontier, or new, areas that correspond to the predominant tectonic settings of past giants.

Another name to lok at is Geophysicists - Michel T. Halbouty, he subscribes to the Abiotic origin of oil.

Michel T. Halbouty has few peers as a contributor to and defender of the professions of geology, geophysics, ...
http://www.mssu.edu/seg-vm/bio_michel_t__halbouty.html

ps: they never completed the surveys of ANWAR so you three month estimate is spurious.

 

[Ulalame]

Oil and You and Technology

"Originally Posted by pjdude1219
you do know it will be years before any of it is capable of hitting the market continuing to use oil and natrual gas for energy is stupid we should move on to cleaner and more renewable resources for energy"

1 result found for "fuel replacement therapy".

News

...Energy Collaboratory aims to find ways to directly convert the sun's energy to low-cost electricity and fuels. The Center for Revolutionary Solar Photoconversion (CRSP), Since our founding in 2000, Evident has been a pioneer in advancing quantum dot technologies for manufacturability and product development.

In 1956, geophysicist, M. King Hubbert, working at the Shell research lab in Houston, TX predicted that US oil production would peak in the early 1970s. Others predicted a peak occurring right about now. For his efforts, Hubbert was pilloried by oil experts and economists. Nevertheless, the 70's are remembered less for Disco Duck than for the long lines at service stations. The Arab Oil Embargo had driven home a point that the US had become an oil junkie nation. The US partnership with Arab oil producers was always a strange marriage of fundamentalist Christians from Texas and equally fundamentalist Muslims from the far flung deserts of the Middle East, primarily Saudi Arabia.

Even though the negative charges all move from cloud to ground, the bright flash of lightning moves from ground to cloud in a speedy 1/10,000 of a second, moving 61,000 miles per second! The super-heated air expands outward explosively, producing the shock wave we hear as thunder. The bright flash of glowing air is called the return stroke since it moves from ground to cloud, opposite to the moving charges.

Think Tesla-The return stroke discharges a region of the cloud, but the cloud can reorganize quickly and as many as 40 strokes have been observed to use the same charged channel. There is quite a lot of energy in a lightning stroke, about 250 kilowatt-hours. At the current cost of energy, this would be about $16.75 worth.

All this requires the progress we are all used to right now (using our macs and pc's,necessary sanitation,clubbin',boozin',reading books,working,eating sleeping playing sex driving cookies pancakes agriculture religion the lack of anything is the gain of nothing; the gain of everything is the loss of everything but what...) like there's no tomarrow.

Even Pj's cost time and money which are things that we have integrated into "infinite" data... The internet a safety zone... an non-living thing that everyone expects to change constantly to satiate an unnecessary desire to GAIN NOTHING... If you're so concerned about the earth and you know so much why aren't you being rewarded for spending all this time giving it all away for what? So that someone will say something that will spark something in you that makes you say things that sound smart? Well say something smart all you people out there that have every quip memorised so you'll be the winner in every arguement even though it's going nowhere really.

WE ARE ALL GOING TO DIE SOME TIME WHY SIT HERE CRYING ABOUT IT WHEN NATGEO IS FRANTICALLY CRAVING HUMAN LIFE THAT ARE INTELLIGENT BUT THERE ARE ONLY SMART IDIOTS WITH NO TRUE DESIRE TO CHANGE. WHY DON'T YOU PULL SOME 46+2 ON SOME ONE AS SMART AS YOU.

-Ulalame

 

[Ulalame]

Oil and You and Technology

Prove that the jobs created by altenrative energy companies cannot be outsourced.


“ The present US government is not very friendyl towards alternative energy because it is biased towards oil. The present government has a lot of investment in oil, which is the main factor influencing their behaviour. This is the good olde agency problem... from here 2006.

 

[Syzygys]

Education:

Below are the production curves of whale oil and whale bone. Obviously whales were not a finite resource, but when whaling was done in such a big scale that the whale reproduction rate couldn't keep up with it, it nevertheless behaved like a finite resource. You can recognize the bell curve:

Here is the graph with price (inflation adjusted). You can see that price increased signifficantly when the bell curve reached the top and stayed high from there on:

P.S.: By the way whaling is a good example for abiotic fans.It shows that even a renewable resource can be used up if the rate of usage is way faster than the rate of replenishment/reproduction.(dodo, American buffalo*,etc.)

*Oh my god, I have just realized the Buffalo doesn't Roam anymore!!! (probably because it wasn't abiotic)

 

[ElectricFetus]

Buffalo Roam,

We are consuming 28+ billion barrels a year, and finding less then 5 billion a year, Why can't you get your research from the Nation Energy Agency?

 

[ElectricFetus]

Look it happen before, why can't it happen again and a global level?

Where are we going to import oil from as the globe peaks?

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Education:

Below are the production curves of whale oil and whale bone. Obviously whales were not a finite resource, but when whaling was done in such a big scale that the whale reproduction rate couldn't keep up with it, it nevertheless behaved like a finite resource. You can recognize the bell curve:

Here is the graph with price (inflation adjusted). You can see that price increased signifficantly when the bell curve reached the top and stayed high from there on:

P.S.: By the way whaling is a good example for abiotic fans.It shows that even a renewable resource can be used up if the rate of usage is way faster than the rate of replenishment/reproduction.(dodo, American buffalo*,etc.)

*Oh my god, I have just realized the Buffalo doesn't Roam anymore!!! (probably because it wasn't abiotic)

No the reason the Buffalo don't roam is that they are being ranched, feed them enough and they have no desire to follow the migration.

Actually if you care to check out the history, the reason that whaling industry went into decline was because of the oil industry, the sources were more dependable, the production more efficient and cheaper, it was just more efficient to utilize crude oil in industry, and the economy, That is the main reason the Whale Oil industry went south.

As for your bell curve, there were a lot of reasons it formed, including the fact, that the oil industry put a lot of whalers out of business, cheaper product, put ships off line, less hunting, so less by product from the carcass.

Plastics replaced whale bone, again cheaper to produce, and a more stable supply.

The economy made it's choices, and that choice was the more dependable and stable source, oil, and as of today that is still the main game in town.

There is still nothing with the maturity and infrastructure to even replace 10%of the energy need of the world, let alone the industrial economies in the world today, and it still hasn't been proved that we are running out of oil, easily accessible oil maybe, but oil as a source in and of it self no.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

Look it happen before, why can't it happen again and a global level?

Where are we going to import oil from as the globe peaks?

Yes, look it happened before, up and down, a cycle, exploration is encouraged, by government policy and discouraged by government policy, it is support by the free market, and discouraged by the free market, cycles, economic cycles.

 

[ElectricFetus]

No the reason the Buffalo don't roam is that they are being ranched, feed them enough and they have no desire to follow the migration.

Your telling me the bison droped to 100th it native population because a few of them found ranching a easier way of life? Next your going to tell me the passanger pigeon went extinct because it found a better dimension to live in?

Actually if you care to check out the history, the reason that whaling industry went into decline was because of the oil industry, the sources were more dependable, the production more efficient and cheaper, it was just more efficient to utilize crude oil in industry, and the economy, That is the main reason the Whale Oil industry went south. As for your bell curve, there were a lot of reasons it formed, including the fact, that the oil industry put a lot of whalers out of business, cheaper product, put ships off line, less hunting, so less by product from the carcass.

Plastics replaced whale bone, again cheaper to produce, and a more stable supply. The economy made it's choices, and that choice was the more dependable and stable source, oil, and as of today that is still the main game in town.

Or the oil industry started up because the whaling industry faltered. I see where you are going to go with this in 10-20 year: "Oil did not run out, electric cars and biofuel simply out competed it!" Your probably right about that as unconventional oil is going to have a heard time competing with clean easier energy: why try to make oil from shale oil if its harder and more expensive then making oil from biomass? The initial point of fact was that conventional oil dried up and could not match demand, something had to replace it. Now either that replacement must happen fast and on a grand scale or we are fucked, you seem to side with the "we are fucked" side, very doom and gloom aren't you?

 

[ElectricFetus]

Yes, look it happened before, up and down, a cycle, exploration is encouraged, by government policy and discouraged by government policy, it is support by the free market, and discouraged by the free market, cycles, economic cycles.

You blame that on the free market? You think it we made economic policies that allowed the middle east to hurt use hard during the 1970's and 80's, you don't think we were not trying are hardest during those times to churn out local oil production so we did not have to deal with the OPEC embargoes?

 

[Syzygys]

Dont know if you gave the answer, but to save me from reading a long tiresome red font riddled thread, what was your answer?

Oh, sorry, I forgot about it, the Department of Deffense, the US military...

 

[Syzygys]

No the reason the Buffalo don't roam is that they are being ranched, feed them enough and they have no desire to follow the migration.

For all practical purposes, the American wild buffalo became EXTINCT, due to overhunting. A few hundreds (maybe thousands) live in national parks and farms, that's it. The bellcurve of the buffalo would be exactly the same as the whales.

the reason that whaling industry went into decline was because of the oil industry,

Neverhteless whales became also very, very rare at the turn of the century. Also the chart is showing a peak more than a decade earlier before: Colonel Edwin L. Drake drilled the first commercially successful oil well on August 28, 1859.

Plastics replaced whale bone, again cheaper to produce, and a more stable supply.

Yeah, my chart ended in 1880 and the first plastic came out in 1909, for practical usage.

 

[Buffalo Roam]

For all practical purposes, the American wild buffalo became EXTINCT, due to over hunting. A few hundreds (maybe thousands) live in national parks and farms, that's it. The bellcurve of the buffalo would be exactly the same as the whales.

Yes, but they have been increasing because of ranching, and to keep them from roaming across the country side you keep them well fed.

The reason that the Buffalo were hunted almost to extinction, was government policy,

1. Because, the vast herds in their migration didn't allow for the lands utilization for farming.

2. To end the Indian Wars, remove their supply line.

Neverhteless whales became also very, very rare at the turn of the century.

May be true, but you can thank the oil industry that they are still here, it was still because of the reliability of supply, ease of supply, and cost of production that petroleum became the leading energy of the economy, that whale oil fell from the market.

Yeah, my chart ended in 1880 and the first plastic came out in 1909, for practical usage.

But the whaling industry didn't end at 1880, it continued the down ward spiral into the plastics age, and plastic's replaced whale bone, and the corsets went out of fashion, so there wasn't a major demand for whale bone.

But it still is a fact that the Free Market drove the Whaling Industry almost into extinction.

It is only because of Government policies that there is a Whaling Industry, mainly the Japanese government.