The foundations of conspiracy theories
The first is that most conspiracy theorists base their beliefs on values other than science, and sometimes on fear. They are
motivated to believe what they do, and unless those motivations change, it is unlikely they will be swayed by rational argument.
After all, in a world in which so much is known, and so little of it by us individually, it's tempting and empowering to think you have inside knowledge of what's really going on.
We know that
entire industries are built on giving people excuses not to believe in science, excuses that allow them to maintain their delusions. We also know that believing in one
conspiracy theory makes you
more likely to believe in others.
The second reason is that their logic is self-sealing, designed to be impermeable to external reasoning. Let's take a look at how this works for conspiracies to do with science.
Science vs conspiracy
We may consider two general premises: the first, premise S, represents what the scientific community in general thinks is the case. The second, premise C, is what conspiracy theorists think is true.
Let's initially look at climate change. Premise S, the scientific position, is that the planet is warming and that humans are contributing to this effect.
Premise C, the conspiracy position, is that scientists are motivated to increase their funding (or support a green ideology, or both) by making extreme and unwarranted predictions about the dire consequences of
global warming.
The devilish part is that confirming instances of Premise S are also confirming instances of Premise C. Whenever a result is published supporting that the planet is warming and that humans are in part responsible, that result also supports the idea that scientists are once again feathering their collective nests by appealing to fear. Each theory is strengthened, according to its proponents.
Premise S could be
falsified if we found
evidence showing either that the planet is cooling or that humans are not responsible for increasing temperatures. But that same evidence would be seen by conspiracy theorists as the truth finally emerging from beneath the layers of suppression.
Either way, it's a win for supporters of Premise C.
Any attempt to falsify Premise C is doomed to failure, as each new result that supports Premise S is simply seen as another instance of a conspiracy among scientists.
In the case of evolution, Premise S is that evolution has occurred and natural selection is its mechanism. Premise C, developed by religious fundamentalists, is identical to the
climate change example, except that in this case scientists are said to be motivated to perpetuate the
myth of evolution in order to promote their ideology and their atheism.
Again, evidence in support of Premise S (evolution) is also evidence in support of Premise C (conspiracy). Likewise, any evidence against Premise S, however weak, is seen as the truth coming out by supporters of Premise C.