Corona Virus 2019-nCoV
- Thread starter Quantum Quack
- Start date
Haven't posted to this thread for a while, mainly because of the fluid nature of recent events and most persons are more aware of what appears to be happening around them. ( and to be blunt it is all too depressing)
Currently we here in Australia, are dealing with significant Delta variant infections that originated in NSW (Sydney is effectively in lock down - again originating international arrivals quarantine) and now spread to Victoria meaning that a severe lock down is likely in the next 48 hours or so here in Melbourne. (we have only just come out of a 2 week lock down)
Our vaccination regime is a total wreck due to many factors with the Federal Government seemingly failing or grasp the urgency and immediacy until Sydney went in to lock down a couple of weeks ago.
Globally the Delta variant is causing much concern, including the potential that it may circumvent most vaccinations.
There are reports of fully vaccinated persons (Pfizer) becoming infected and ultimately passing.
Regionally there is a big concern that a new variant may emerge from Indonesia as the Indonesian situation continues to deteriorate and basically is out of control. Oxygen is in short supply and hospitals are over whelmed. (like India) the untreated viral load in Indonesia leads to the anticipation of a mutation in the Delta variant.
It is worth not underestimating the emotional cost that these last 2 years have had, especially on our youth and young entrepreneurs and it would be anticipated that this trauma will be with us all well into the future. (mental health expenditure has significantly increased)
Currently global stats ( c/o worldometers.com)
Active cases: 12,288,467
Total Deaths: 4,074,000
Total Recoveries: 172,777,000
Currently we here in Australia, are dealing with significant Delta variant infections that originated in NSW (Sydney is effectively in lock down - again originating international arrivals quarantine) and now spread to Victoria meaning that a severe lock down is likely in the next 48 hours or so here in Melbourne. (we have only just come out of a 2 week lock down)
Our vaccination regime is a total wreck due to many factors with the Federal Government seemingly failing or grasp the urgency and immediacy until Sydney went in to lock down a couple of weeks ago.
Globally the Delta variant is causing much concern, including the potential that it may circumvent most vaccinations.
There are reports of fully vaccinated persons (Pfizer) becoming infected and ultimately passing.
Regionally there is a big concern that a new variant may emerge from Indonesia as the Indonesian situation continues to deteriorate and basically is out of control. Oxygen is in short supply and hospitals are over whelmed. (like India) the untreated viral load in Indonesia leads to the anticipation of a mutation in the Delta variant.
It is worth not underestimating the emotional cost that these last 2 years have had, especially on our youth and young entrepreneurs and it would be anticipated that this trauma will be with us all well into the future. (mental health expenditure has significantly increased)
Currently global stats ( c/o worldometers.com)
Active cases: 12,288,467
Total Deaths: 4,074,000
Total Recoveries: 172,777,000
Has any one picked up on images (video) coming out of India and Indonesia showing people that have died at home from Covid that appear to have been "almost in the middle of a meal" when they passed?
Most concerning for me is that there appears signs that Covid 19 onset to death may be becoming extremely rapid regarding the Delta variant.
Most concerning for me is that there appears signs that Covid 19 onset to death may be becoming extremely rapid regarding the Delta variant.
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Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Is there any data to suggest this? All reports that I've seen suggest that those vaccinated (in the U.S.) aren't dying or getting severely sick.
no.. just observations on the fly, of certain media content viewed by myself.
Examples:
Three middle aged males sitting in a room facing each other deceased (covid19 claimed) in their chairs with mobile phones in their laps.
Deceased female in Australia, dying at home of covid19 (not in hospital) even though 1st world health system available.
Vaccination status unknown.
To me it is only a small red flag that requires further investigation/evidence. No need for alarm, but is concerning enough to post here and ask the members if any one else has noticed similar.
Yes ... vaccination appears to be really great at minimizing serious short term outcomes. Long term outcomes (long convid) are essentially unknown.
Bells
Staff member
The only reason it became significant is because Gladys refused to lockdown until it blew out of control.. Because 'economy!'..
She let it get to over 80 cases, despite the medical and scientific community begging to lockdown sooner, before she attempted to lockdown.. Which was and continues to be a dismal failure, as no one is taking it seriously, because everyone saw their state premier play it down for weeks before it exploded.. Every other state has locked down after only a few cases, to allow contact tracing to work and get everyone who came into contact into isolation and the spread stops within a few days. This has been a tried and true method in this country. It works. Usually over the course of a few days.
Gladys refused point blank, citing how Sydney and NSW do not lockdown because it wasn't necessary.. And she tried to hold that line for weeks. Now it is completely out of control and they are facing indefinite lockdown. The irony is that she freely admitted to seeking advice from industry regarding lockdown... And when they finally had to lockdown, she actually tried to argue that industry had advised and approved of a 2 week lockdown.. Because apparently locking down for 3 days over a weekend is worse than what is now an indefinite lockdown.. The lies coming out of the LNP in NSW and elsewhere regarding this disaster would be hilarious if it was not so goddamn tragic and infuriating.
It has now spread out of NSW, because Gladys's lockdown amounts to nothing whatsoever because Gladys does not believe in closing borders either.. And has gone to Victoria, SA, we have cases in QLD.. It also spread to WA at one point as well and the NT - we all locked down instantly and what do you know? It worked for us because we didn't let it run rampant in the greater community for weeks..
Actually no.
The reason our vaccine rollout is a complete and utter clusterfuck is because our federal government sought to do a deal with Astra Zeneca to produce it here, and in the process, they turned down and failed and refused to order adequate vaccines from anyone else.. Despite all advice suggesting that they access a wide range of vaccines, ScoMo went 'nup' because he saw cold hard cash in the offering..
When it backfired, he then tried to strongarm the ATAGI into altering their recommendations because he cannot admit that he is wrong. And on the rare occasion where he has to be forced to confront his failings at leadership, be it the vaccine rollout to the lack of actual proper quarantine facilities, he still tries to pass the buck and play it down after being forced out of hiding..
So you should stop trying to be polite or putting a spin on what they did.
Then you should be able to provide links.
She elected to not go to the doctor when she was sick or to a hospital and thus, died at home.
You seem to be reading way too much into this.
No. Just.. No..
We don't need more conspiracies..
Hang on a tick. Whilst a given country’s health regulator might approve multiple vaccines, most countries have had to go with one or two (based largely on economics). The USA is probably the only country that has three or more at their disposal. Our choice to rely primarily on the AZ vax was a logical and sound choice (both scientifically and economically) given that Australia has a sovereign capability to produce adenovirus-based vaccines whereas we don’t for mRNA-based vaccines. The ability to domestically produce the bulk of our own vaccine doses is very important and this strategy set us up nicely for population-wide vaccination (exactly as the UK has done with AZ).
The main problem that has arisen, as I see it, is that the government has not capitalised on that strategy and has allowed absurd hesitancy around AZ to develop. We have heaps of AZ doses but instead of vaccinating as many people as possible with AZ, they’ve listened to the so-called “experts” on the Australian Technical Advisory Group (ATAGI) and limited administration to >60yo based on rare side effects that are less likely than the side effects of many other common medications. Meanwhile, in the UK, anyone 18+ can receive AZ. Of course, the UK’s decision is based on considerably more COVID deaths than Australia has experienced; it’s a much clearer risk-benefit analysis. But, given the economic devastation we’re experiencing from repeated lockdowns, how can anyone argue that we shouldn’t adopt the same strategy?
Bells
Staff member
After claiming “official” discussions with Pfizer had only started in December, Health Minister Greg Hunt has finally confirmed that the government met with Pfizer last July to discuss purchasing the Pfizer vaccine. Sources say Australia was given options for as many doses as needed to be delivered in January this year, yet government officials turned down the offer Callum Foote reports.
Until Question Time on Thursday, Health Minister Greg Hunt had for months repeatedly avoided answering questions on the issue, claiming the “offical” meetings with Pfizer had only started in December 2020.
Pfizer had allegedly offered Australia priority options for the vaccine in July 2020. According to Hunt, the government rejected the offer citing “medical advice”, deciding instead to back the AstraZeneca vaccine.
However, according to Bill Bowtell, UNSW Adjunct Professor of Strategic Health Policy, that advice must have been based on “commercial and political advice”.
Sources say the government could not have possibly decided on “medical advice” because it wasn’t available at the time.
The medical advice – the USFDA’s approval of Pfizer – didn’t occur until the end of 2020.
[...]
Pfizer had allegedly wanted to make an example out of Australia about how to properly conduct a vaccine rollout, similarly to how Israeli handled theirs. Instead, the Federal Government came back in November 2020 and ordered only 10 million doses of Pfizer.
According to Swan, Pfizer told the Australian Government that the company would provide any number of vaccines, yet the offer was rejected. The UK, on the other hand, went with a strategy of backing every horse, taking options out with all vaccine producing companies.
Between the meeting with Pfizer on July 10 and August 19, the newly formed Science and Industry Technical Advisory Group (SITAG) announced it had signed a letter of intent with Oxford/AZ covering local production with the price to be decided.
Following a slow approval process by the TGA, which took months to approve the AZ vaccine, Australia then had to wait on the production of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of CSL’s Melbourne manufacturing facility.
“We locked ourselves into something which we couldn’t make quickly and we dragged out the approval process,” says Bowtell.
[https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gove...fer-of-40-million-pfizer-doses-in-july-2020/]
Until Question Time on Thursday, Health Minister Greg Hunt had for months repeatedly avoided answering questions on the issue, claiming the “offical” meetings with Pfizer had only started in December 2020.
Pfizer had allegedly offered Australia priority options for the vaccine in July 2020. According to Hunt, the government rejected the offer citing “medical advice”, deciding instead to back the AstraZeneca vaccine.
However, according to Bill Bowtell, UNSW Adjunct Professor of Strategic Health Policy, that advice must have been based on “commercial and political advice”.
Sources say the government could not have possibly decided on “medical advice” because it wasn’t available at the time.
The medical advice – the USFDA’s approval of Pfizer – didn’t occur until the end of 2020.
[...]
Pfizer had allegedly wanted to make an example out of Australia about how to properly conduct a vaccine rollout, similarly to how Israeli handled theirs. Instead, the Federal Government came back in November 2020 and ordered only 10 million doses of Pfizer.
According to Swan, Pfizer told the Australian Government that the company would provide any number of vaccines, yet the offer was rejected. The UK, on the other hand, went with a strategy of backing every horse, taking options out with all vaccine producing companies.
Between the meeting with Pfizer on July 10 and August 19, the newly formed Science and Industry Technical Advisory Group (SITAG) announced it had signed a letter of intent with Oxford/AZ covering local production with the price to be decided.
Following a slow approval process by the TGA, which took months to approve the AZ vaccine, Australia then had to wait on the production of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of CSL’s Melbourne manufacturing facility.
“We locked ourselves into something which we couldn’t make quickly and we dragged out the approval process,” says Bowtell.
[https://www.michaelwest.com.au/gove...fer-of-40-million-pfizer-doses-in-july-2020/]
The advice at the time was to cover all bases. They refused to.
Why? Because $$.
I beg to differ.
Their strategy came apart at the seams when they were unable to actually produce enough AZ and failed to meet their own deadlines. Production did not begin until March and even then, how much they produced was fairly dismal.
Hesitancy developed when they then came out and declared that those under 50 should not get the AZ - not that anyone could anyway because there was so little of it to go around to begin with.
We do?
We were told what? 2 million or so a week? The reality was vastly different.
CSL told the Guardian it was only expecting to manufacture 1m doses a week from the second half of July onwards. CSL production in the past month has also been well down on its usual levels.
Throughout June, production was scaled back at CSL’s Melbourne facilities because it had to produce an unrelated antivenom.
Production fell from the 1m doses a week in May to 232,000 in the week commencing 7 June. Production hovered at between 676,000 and 720,000 for the rest of the month.
Throughout June, production was scaled back at CSL’s Melbourne facilities because it had to produce an unrelated antivenom.
Production fell from the 1m doses a week in May to 232,000 in the week commencing 7 June. Production hovered at between 676,000 and 720,000 for the rest of the month.
We did not have heaps of it months ago because he failed to actually secure enough doses to begin with and put all his eggs in one basket, leading us to where we are at today (don't even get me started on quarantine)..
And as for the ATAGI:
The president of the Australian Medical Association, Dr Omar Khorshid, says he does not endorse the prime minister’s announcement that anyone under 40 can receive the AstraZeneca vaccine from their GP, adding it took him by surprise.
The advice from the independent Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation – that Pfizer is the preferred vaccine for under-60s due to an increased risk of rare clotting events linked to the AstraZeneca jab – is unchanged. Despite this, Scott Morrison on Monday night encouraged under-60s “to go and have that discussion with your GP” if they wish to receive the AstraZeneca vaccine.
[...]
Atagi comprises independent infectious diseases physicians, microbiologists, epidemiologists, public health nurses, GPs and consumer representatives. Its advice states there is “a higher risk and observed severity of thrombosis [clotting] and thrombocytopenia [low platelet count] syndrome related to the use of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine observed in Australia in the 50-59 year old age group than reported internationally and initially estimated in Australia”.
The advice from the independent Australian Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation – that Pfizer is the preferred vaccine for under-60s due to an increased risk of rare clotting events linked to the AstraZeneca jab – is unchanged. Despite this, Scott Morrison on Monday night encouraged under-60s “to go and have that discussion with your GP” if they wish to receive the AstraZeneca vaccine.
[...]
Atagi comprises independent infectious diseases physicians, microbiologists, epidemiologists, public health nurses, GPs and consumer representatives. Its advice states there is “a higher risk and observed severity of thrombosis [clotting] and thrombocytopenia [low platelet count] syndrome related to the use of AstraZeneca Covid-19 vaccine observed in Australia in the 50-59 year old age group than reported internationally and initially estimated in Australia”.
What could they possibly know...
I could trust ScoMo over the "so called experts".. But I rather hedge my bets on the experts.
The UK also covered all their bets and ordered vaccines from everyone who was offering.
The complete opposite of what Australia did. I have family in the UK. When they went to get their vaccine, they were given advice on all available and were able to choose, with advice from their doctor. Do you have that choice?
I didn't. I managed to get a pfizer shot here because people failed to turn up at my Dr when I was there and they were so desperate that they did not want to waste the rest of the vial that was open. Because I am in the age range that can now access it and was on a waiting list and was there, I was able to get my first dose. It was like winning the lottery. My Dr kept telling me how lucky I was and kept thanking me because they only had 20 minutes left before they would have had to throw it out. They were treating it like liquid gold. It felt ridiculous because it was ridiculous. As for the AZ.. They were not sent stocks from the Feds for several weeks because there aren't enough available. They received a small delivery of Pfizer, which hundreds of people put their names down for. No guarantee that we'll get our second dose in a month's time..
Australia has just said that those over 12 are now approved to get the pfizer. Wouldn't it be great if there were enough stocks for them to get it?
Or my elderly inlaws who aren't in a nursing home who managed to wrangle their first dose of AZ and had to travel over an hour (they live in Brisbane) to obtain it because people cancelled and they had called at the right time to try to find a spot.. And are not guaranteed to get their second dose because of lack of supply because they cannot be certain that the doses will arrive.. My husband is in the same boat..
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Re UK we use Pfizer as well. Everyone under 40 is offered that in preference to AZ, to avoid the slight blood clot risk for younger people.
You may have seen this doing the rounds...any thoughts?
I sure hope so...( sorry I misread your post.) is it instead of it is.
The issue of chasing our tails of the foreseeable future is most likely until the virology labs do develop vaccines that actually work as vaccines and not just harm minimizers.
Until then we all have to simply do the best we can in delaying what for some may appear, inevitable.
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The current batch work as vaccines, and like all vaccines act as harm minimizers. That's how all the viruses that have been beaten were beaten - by minimizing their harm via vaccination, allowing isolation of the infected and interruption of the spread.
We may have to agree to disagree but a vaccine is supposed to prevent disease and not just minimize it.
wiki:
The administration of vaccines is called vaccination. Vaccination is the most effective method of preventing infectious diseases.
Admittedly the wiki articles also offer other more broad definitions....
We do know that many fully vaccinated persons can contract the disease and in fact spread it as well. This does not understate the benefit being given in regards to harm minimization and I highly recommend "vaccination" if offered.
I personally are fully vaccinated and hope given my immune-compromised state, due to other health issues, will offer some protection against severe outcomes.
The current batch of vaccines for Covid do just that - they prevent disease in most people.
They aren't perfect at it.
No vaccine is perfect at prevention. Some of them even occasionally cause the disease they are supposed to prevent (some of the polio vaccines, for example). The current batch of Covid vaccines does not do that, which is fortunate.
True
I would put vaccine in the category of - a messenger to the body's immune system
Wake up you lot. The body is under attack from this lot and many more who look much the same. Go out and neutralise as many as you can
I am confident that the leading vaccine labs are working hard to develop better solutions but in the mean time we need to do the best we can....
I think it's pretty clear that some countries are doing better at vaccinating or at containment (testing and isolating) than others.
Interestingly, different countries with similar 28-day positive test results and similar vaccine uptakes are reporting quite varied mortality rates. This doesn't seem, at first glance, to be connected to relative wealth, or vaccine uptake.
For instance, according to Johns Hopkins, Austria has had 30,304 new cases of Covid-19 in the last 28 days, and 33 deaths.
Australia has 22,410 and 99 deaths. Compare Jordan at 23,733 and 342 deaths or Norway with 23,586 and 18 deaths.
That said, there does seem to be some evidence that in those countries that have seen increases in daily vaccination numbers they are also seeing decreases in case numbers
Interestingly, different countries with similar 28-day positive test results and similar vaccine uptakes are reporting quite varied mortality rates. This doesn't seem, at first glance, to be connected to relative wealth, or vaccine uptake.
For instance, according to Johns Hopkins, Austria has had 30,304 new cases of Covid-19 in the last 28 days, and 33 deaths.
Australia has 22,410 and 99 deaths. Compare Jordan at 23,733 and 342 deaths or Norway with 23,586 and 18 deaths.
That said, there does seem to be some evidence that in those countries that have seen increases in daily vaccination numbers they are also seeing decreases in case numbers
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The Johns Hopkins graphs and statistics have to be taken at face value, and so some countries might not, for political reasons, or being poor, they can't guarantee accurate numbers or maybe can't test, or won't test, enough to make the numbers reliable.
Nonetheless, I think there's a fair bit of evidence that when the vaccines arrived, those countries that had a strong increase in uptake saw a corresponding decrease later of cases and deaths. But now that the delta variant is the leading agent, many countries that have had a recent downturn in vaccine uptake are seeing cases and deaths increase.
The large variation in death rates is to some extent explained by the distribution of wealth and access to medical care across countries, but not the whole story it seems. Why has Australia lost three times as many people in the last 28 days as Austria, the two countries have comparable health systems, so what's the skinny?
Nonetheless, I think there's a fair bit of evidence that when the vaccines arrived, those countries that had a strong increase in uptake saw a corresponding decrease later of cases and deaths. But now that the delta variant is the leading agent, many countries that have had a recent downturn in vaccine uptake are seeing cases and deaths increase.
The large variation in death rates is to some extent explained by the distribution of wealth and access to medical care across countries, but not the whole story it seems. Why has Australia lost three times as many people in the last 28 days as Austria, the two countries have comparable health systems, so what's the skinny?