Congratulations America - you got the president you deserve

[Seattle]

I will remember your support of a policy that added trillions to the debt the next time you condescendingly explain that debt is bad and will destroy the US.

It is bad as is "redistributing" someone else's income. A tax cut isn't the same as excess spending whether one says it in a condescending tone or not. Much of what you post is condescending but that's not why it's wrong.

Again, our tax rates are in the same ballpark as other developed countries. Our spending is not. It is what is out of control and out of line. Your arguments generally just rely on semantics. What is unreasonable about making sure that our corporate tax rate is in line with other developed countries? That's what the cuts were actually about. That's reasonable. Your comments aren't.

 

[C C]

My prediction:

Trump will impose tariffs
Prices will skyrocket [...]

More dreadful (due to the prolongation) would be the Dem administration that follows Trump deciding to keep the tariffs, as Biden did with respect to the first round[1]. Since his precise plans are still nebulous[2], arguably some doubt (hope?) as to whether Trump will really implement those that could trigger catastrophic increases on necessities.

- - - footnotes - - -

[1] (Sept 13, 2024) Biden finalizes increases to some of Trump’s China tariffs: "Trump implemented sweeping tariffs on about $300 billion of Chinese-made products when he was in office. President Joe Biden has kept those tariffs in place and, after the USTR finished a multiyear review earlier this year, decided to increase some of the rates on about $15 billion of Chinese imports."

Peter Zeihan: "So we started down a spiral of ever more internally focused, narcissistic, populist political contests that brought in a series of leaders that bit-by-bit backed away from globalization, culminating with the last two. From an international economic point of view, the two most similar presidents we have ever had are Joe Biden and Donald Trump."

(June 26, 2024) What Biden and Trump have in common might surprise you: You might think President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump are worlds apart on most international issues. But look a little closer, and you will see that the two candidates actually share some surprising commonalities on foreign policy, trade...
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

[2] (Nov 8, 2024) Trump promised massive tariffs on imports but how he’ll pull it off is still being figured out: As a candidate, Trump pledged to slap 60% tariffs on all goods coming in from China and 10% tariffs on goods imported from all other countries. While aides say those pledges weren’t campaign bluster, there are still questions about how to pursue them, through what legal authorities and when.

Among those advising Trump on economic issues before he makes critical appointments, a clear strategy has emerged: Link the increased China tariffs to tax reform negotiations expected to reach a head in 2025.

“The way that President Trump looks at tariffs are not in isolation. They are a fundamental and core part of his broader economic strategy, which also includes tax cuts, deregulation, energy diversity,” says Kelly Ann Shaw, a former Trump official who is now a partner at law firm Hogan Lovells.
__

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

I'm glad I'm old.

 

[(Q)]

“The way that President Trump looks at tariffs are not in isolation. They are a fundamental and core part of his broader economic strategy, which also includes tax cuts, deregulation, energy diversity,” says Kelly Ann Shaw, a former Trump official who is now a partner at law firm Hogan Lovells.
__

Sure, we take economic advice from a former Trump official who is a lawyer. Yet, most every expert of economics on the planet believe Trump will tank the economy with his "broader economic strategy"

 

[(Q)]

I'm glad I'm old.

You really have to stop gloating.

 

[geordief]

You really have to stop gloating.

Is he our floating gloater?

 

[(Q)]

Is he our floating gloater?

Or maybe a gloating floater?

 

[geordief]

Or maybe a gloating floater?

Ahoy ahead floosies ! A galloping gloating floater gleaming in the gloaming.

 

[wegs]

My prediction:

Trump will impose tariffs
Prices will skyrocket
Trump will blame China for causing inflation
US companies will start building more stuff
Trump will offer some sort of rebate to "help people deal with China's economic terrorism"
His economic assistance will be the centerpiece of republican campaigning for the next election cycle

I think you could be right, but I’m wondering if Trump’s “ace in the hole” (in his thinking) is that he’s going to get the US away from foreign oil dependence and open up pipeline development in the US. Trump, for all his flaws, doesn’t seem like he would do something that undermines the long term goals of the Republican Party, and “economic assistance” would do just that. But, you may be right.

 

[Seattle]

Sure, we take economic advice from a former Trump official who is a lawyer. Yet, most every expert of economics on the planet believe Trump will tank the economy with his "broader economic strategy"

Most every economist on the planet believes that Trump's plan as stated in the press, would be a disaster. Whether that's his actual plan isn't clear and whether that is actually what he will do is even more unclear.

If he just uses it as a threat to negotiate with China, it could work out. Otherwise, it's just a disaster.

 

[Gawdzilla Sama]

You really have to stop gloating.

:chortle:

 

[Seattle]

I think you could be right, but I’m wondering if Trump’s “ace in the hole” (in his thinking) is that he’s going to get the US away from foreign oil dependence and open up pipeline development in the US. Trump, for all his flaws, doesn’t seem like he would do something that undermines the long term goals of the Republican Party, and “economic assistance” would do just that. But, you may be right.

Bill is never "right", we are already pretty energy independent. Trump may be using tariffs as a bargaining ploy with China with the intention of removing them if the negotiations work out.

It's hard to know with Trump.

 

[wegs]

Bill is never "right", we are already pretty energy independent. Trump may be using tariffs as a bargaining ploy with China with the intention of removing them if the negotiations work out.

It's hard to know with Trump.

Yea, I just don't see Trump sabotaging his own party for the next election, and to me, in his mind, causing the economy to become so bad that people need assistance (like the stimulus checks during Covid, for example) would cause an upset in his own party. Or perhaps breed distrust from Republican voters for the next election. Not to mention, but I don't see government assistance as helpful for Americans in general, from a sustainability perspective. That's not how you 'fix' the economic downturn we're experiencing. Hard to say what will happen. For all of his flaws, I don't see Trump deliberately tanking the economy.

 

[billvon]

I’m wondering if Trump’s “ace in the hole” (in his thinking) is that he’s going to get the US away from foreign oil dependence

The US already produces far more oil than it imports. So they are dependent on us - not the other way around.

 

[Seattle]

Yea, I just don't see Trump sabotaging his own party for the next election, and to me, in his mind, causing the economy to become so bad that people need assistance (like the stimulus checks during Covid, for example) would cause an upset in his own party. Or perhaps breed distrust from Republican voters for the next election. Not to mention, but I don't see government assistance as helpful for Americans in general, from a sustainability perspective. That's not how you 'fix' the economic downturn we're experiencing. Hard to say what will happen. For all of his flaws, I don't see Trump deliberately tanking the economy.

I have just stopped watching MSNBC. I never did watch Fox. Which leads into your point (and my point) the sky isn't falling. Everyone is looking for drama. People like to state every issue as if the world is going to end.

It isn't. Trump will make mistakes, do and say something stupid. He isn't going to deport 30 million people, he isn't going to place tariffs on everyone and stop all US export trade or jack up the price on everything that US consumers want and buy every day.

He may even do some good. As you say, handing out money doesn't fix anything. It's what caused most problems. Anyone living in any large city sees what the problems are and what caused the problems and it isn't, in general, the kind of policies that Trump talks about.

He is crude but he is a reaction to what has been going on. He is going to try to fix those problems and not to try to make them worse. Will he succeed? Who knows?

 

[wegs]

I have just stopped watching MSNBC. I never did watch Fox. Which leads into your point (and my point) the sky isn't falling. Everyone is looking for drama. People like to state every issue as if the world is going to end.

It isn't. Trump will make mistakes, do and say something stupid. He isn't going to deport 30 million people, he isn't going to place tariffs on everyone and stop all US export trade or jack up the price on everything that US consumers want and buy every day.

He may even do some good. As you say, handing out money doesn't fix anything. It's what caused most problems. Anyone living in any large city sees what the problems are and what caused the problems and it isn't, in general, the kind of policies that Trump talks about.

He is crude but he is a reaction to what has been going on. He is going to try to fix those problems and not to try to make them worse. Will he succeed? Who knows?

And that brings up a great question - doesn’t it seem like every election outcome is a reaction to the prior administration? The push and pull dynamic is hurting more than it’s helping.

 

[wegs]

The US already produces far more oil than it imports. So they are dependent on us - not the other way around.

Biden/Harris didn’t talk this up enough, in my opinion. So why are we still interested in importing foreign oil, if we’ve reached energy independence?

 

[Seattle]

Biden/Harris didn’t talk this up enough, in my opinion. So why are we still interested in importing foreign oil, if we’ve reached energy independence?

Petroleum takes many forms. We are a net exporter but there are many forms and it's used in many things.

I'm always astounded by administrations that aren't good at communicating. I understand that all Presidents aren't equally good but they all have press secretaries. For instance, GW Bush was particularly bad. Even if you are going to do something as stupid as invading Iraq you still help your press by talking to the public more at every step to explain why you are doing what you are doing.

No need to let the opposition "guess" and paint every picture with the worst possible light or interpretation.

 

[(Q)]

Here are some numbers compiled by factcheck.org for Trumps last term, not a very good record.

• The economy lost 2.7 million jobs. The unemployment rate increased by 1.7 percentage points to 6.4%.
• Paychecks grew faster than inflation. Average weekly earnings for all workers were up 8.4% after inflation.
• After-tax corporate profits went up, and the stock market set new records. The S&P 500 index rose 67.8%.
• The international trade deficit Trump promised to reduce went up. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services in 2020 was the highest since 2008 and increased 36.3% from 2016.
• The number of people lacking health insurance rose by 3 million.
• The federal debt held by the public went up, from $14.4 trillion to $21.6 trillion.
• Home prices rose 27.5%, and the homeownership rate increased 2.1 percentage points to 65.8%.
• Illegal immigration increased. Apprehensions at the Southwest border rose 14.7% last year compared with 2016.
• Coal production declined 26.5%, and coal-mining jobs dropped by 25%. Carbon emissions from energy consumption dropped 11.3%.
• Handgun production rose 12.5% last year compared with 2016, setting a new record.
• The murder rate last year rose to the highest level since 1997.
• Trump filled one-third of the Supreme Court, nearly 30% of the appellate court seats and a quarter of District Court seats.

 

[TheVat]

And that brings up a great question - doesn’t it seem like every election outcome is a reaction to the prior administration? The push and pull dynamic is hurting more than it’s helping.

It does seem that any two term presidencies will be critically dependent on global economic forces. Cycles of pocketbook stress will generally lead to incumbent loathing by a large segment of the electorate. Even if an incumbent, in fact, has skillfully ameliorated the harsh effects of global disruptions.

We really need to bring back Civics classes in US middle/high schools.