2012 thread

[Fraggle Rocker]

No accident can happen to the sun, at least not for the next 4.5 billion years (approximately).

The sun is indeed almost exactly halfway through its main sequence evolution, i.e., the nuclear fusion at its core is hydrogen to helium.

At the end of this phase it will enter its red giant phase. When all the hydrogen is consumed the core will contract, becoming even hotter. When it reaches 100,000,000 degrees, helium fusion will begin, producing carbon and entering into the next phase.

However, the sun does not remain constant during these phases. It has been steadily heating up during its main sequence--note my previous reminder that the earth's surface is much warmer than it used to be, which is probably the reason that land-based life only evolved in the last billion years. It will continue to get warmer as it burns up all of its hydrogen, boiling all the water off of this planet and making life impossible only one billion years from now. And it will slowly expand into its red giant phase, engulfing Mercury and Venus, and possibly Earth, by the time the hydrogen is gone.

So it is not the sun that's going anywhere. It's the earth.

 

[ElectricFetus]

Here an idea: what if the world "ends" on 2012 because enough nitwits go ape-shit causing massive havoc and thus making a self-fulfilled prophecy out of the whole 2012 thing?

 

[Read-Only]

Here an idea: what if the world "ends" on 2012 because enough nitwits go ape-shit causing massive havoc and thus making a self-fulfilled prophecy out of the whole 2012 thing?

Yes, except for the VERY remote chance of an asteroid impact, THAT'S the only real possibility I can see. After all, the general population isn't all that bright anyway...

 

[Gravage]

Still wrong.
But at least you appear to be happy in your ignorance.
I found the last sentence particularly funny. So now you're claiming omniscience?
Way to go...

You're the one who lives in philosophy and ignorance, not me. I take more pragmatic approach and there is nothing more pragmatic than sunrise and sunset. The sun sets and rises every day, and there is nothing what can stop this process. We're not talking about possibilities, but everyday practice of nature. Sunset and sunrise are irrefutable, therefore it can't be "very high possibility", but a proven fact time and time again.

 

[Fraggle Rocker]

Sunset and sunrise are irrefutable, therefore it can't be "very high possibility", but a proven fact time and time again.

Science doesn't deal in "facts," although scientists are horribly bad communicators and they let the word slip into their language. Science only deals with hypotheses that have been proven true beyond a reasonable doubt, and those become theories.

The fundamental premise of science is that the universe can be understood, and its behavior can be predicted, by theories derived logically from empirical observations of its present and past behavior. All it takes is for one counterexample to occur in the future, and the theory is falsified, or at least challenged.

Science tells us that the probability of the sun continuing to rise and set every day is so great that it would be unreasonable to doubt it, but that is definitely not the same thing as saying that it is absolutely impossible for it not to happen one day.

We all know very well that a large asteroid could hit Earth; it's obviously happened in the past. If it's large enough it could disrupt the planet's rotation so that sunrise and sunset no longer happen; if it's even larger than that it could shatter the planet into fragments so the point becomes moot. Yes the probability of either of these things happening is so low that we can sleep comfortably every night with our dreams disturbed only by lesser disasters such as nuclear war or economic collapse, but the probability is not zero.

 

[Gravage]

Science doesn't deal in "facts," although scientists are horribly bad communicators and they let the word slip into their language. Science only deals with hypotheses that have been proven true beyond a reasonable doubt, and those become theories.

The fundamental premise of science is that the universe can be understood, and its behavior can be predicted, by theories derived logically from empirical observations of its present and past behavior. All it takes is for one counterexample to occur in the future, and the theory is falsified, or at least challenged.

Science tells us that the probability of the sun continuing to rise and set every day is so great that it would be unreasonable to doubt it, but that is definitely not the same thing as saying that it is absolutely impossible for it not to happen one day.

We all know very well that a large asteroid could hit Earth; it's obviously happened in the past. If it's large enough it could disrupt the planet's rotation so that sunrise and sunset no longer happen; if it's even larger than that it could shatter the planet into fragments so the point becomes moot. Yes the probability of either of these things happening is so low that we can sleep comfortably every night with our dreams disturbed only by lesser disasters such as nuclear war or economic collapse, but the probability is not zero.

Well thank you very much for this detailed explanation, I hope you won't get angry on me because I would like memorize it and quote if it's necessary (if needed). Your explanation clears everything.
However, I must warn you because there is one single thing that never fails in 100% of all cases: Everybody die sooner or later.
This was often quoted by my professor of physics, as well all other professors that I met.
Cheers.

 

[Aladdin]

The world came dangerously close to its end for humans 2-3 times already, so [...]

Could someone please elaborate a bit on these few "missed end-of-the-worlds"? I suppose the reference is to some natural events, not man-made ones (i.e. WW2 or such), but I'm not sure I'm aware of what these may be.

 

[Fraggle Rocker]

However, I must warn you because there is one single thing that never fails in 100% of all cases: Everybody die sooner or later.

That we will all die some day is certainly one of the most comfortably probable predictions that we can make... Yet it is still not 100% certain. In this century, which is predicted to be The Century Of Biology, the way the last one was The Century Of Physics and the one before that was The Century Of Chemistry, we can't say with certainty that scientists won't unravel the mechanics of aging AND find a way to meddle with it. I'm not holding out a lot of hope that it will happen in the decade or two that remain of my lifetime, but I would not bet a large amount of money that one of you much younger people won't be in the vanguard of humans who never die except by violence.

Could someone please elaborate a bit on these few "missed end-of-the-worlds"? I suppose the reference is to some natural events, not man-made ones (i.e. WW2 or such), but I'm not sure I'm aware of what these may be.

I'm not going to spend my afternoon looking it up, but I remember from the Smithsonian Hall of Human Origins exhibit that there was a massive die-off of Homo sapiens--modern humans--at some time when we all still lived in Africa, which would put it between 200 and 60KYA. The population was reduced to something on the order of 1,000 individuals. They haven't yet figured out what caused it, and perhaps we'll never know. But the survivors all lived in close proximity so another smaller famine, epidemic, meteor, Jonestown , or whatever it was, could have wiped them all out.

 

[CptBork]

Here an idea: what if the world "ends" on 2012 because enough nitwits go ape-shit causing massive havoc and thus making a self-fulfilled prophecy out of the whole 2012 thing?

Then they would get to taste the sweet satisfaction of finally being right about something

 

[NMSquirrel]

i have heard that the planets will line up,
that is it..
no 'end of world'
no crustal shift,
no nothing..
just the planets line up..

i went to nasa.gov and did the simulator, but it only showed me 4 planets..

so i still don't know if that is right or not..

 

[D H]

The planets are not going to line up on December 21, 2012. You have been sold a bunch of malarkey.

 

[matthew809]

Quick 2012 question:

How do we know the milky way's dark rift is actually caused by space clouds blocking out the light(as opposed to the dark rift just being a band of emptier space)?

 

[eburacum45]

Here's a nice image of the Aquila Rift, one of the most prominent dark molecular clouds.
http://www.stargazing.net/david/NikonD70stars/jpg/AveragePSP10smooth0_80_4aSharp1s1h.jpg

One way that astronomers can tell that this is a dark cloud is the presence of carbon monoxide; this molecule can only exist in quantity inside dark clouds, so is a good indicator that there is a light absorbing cloud there rather than a gap.

 

[sifreak21]

no one knows what will hapen on that day.. but no one can argue the fact that it is a pretty big coincodence that many many ancient civilizations that had 0 contact with one another or even knew one another even exsisted all have something happening in the same month of the same year. what are thoes odds

 

[Read-Only]

no one knows what will hapen on that day.. but no one can argue the fact that it is a pretty big coincodence that many many ancient civilizations that had 0 contact with one another or even knew one another even exsisted all have something happening in the same month of the same year. what are thoes odds

Get real !!! Please provide us with a LIST of those "many many ancient civilizations" that you are claiming here.:bugeye:

 

[Dywyddyr]

but no one can argue the fact that it is a pretty big coincodence that many many ancient civilizations that had 0 contact with one another or even knew one another even exsisted all have something happening in the same month of the same year. what are thoes odds

Strangely enough the odds against decrease each time some crackpot author repeats (or invents) the same inane unfounded assertion.

 

[sifreak21]

Get real !!! Please provide us with a LIST of those "many many ancient civilizations" that you are claiming here.:bugeye:

The Mayan
The I-Ching
The Cybil
Sumerian's
Egyptian
Hopi Indians
Merlin
Nostradamus

im not going to do the research for you. do it yourself there is a start am i saying something is going to happen? NO i am just saying its a pretty big coincodince

 

[sifreak21]

and i dont know why people are arguing about this. in 2012 we will find out and one group is going to look fucking retarted

 

[Dywyddyr]

The Mayan
The I-Ching
The Cybil
Sumerian's
Egyptian
Hopi Indians
Merlin
Nostradamus

Balls. Merlin was a purely fictional character (Geoffrey of Monmouth made him up). Nostradamus didn't make any prediction for 2102, in fact he didn't make any predictions at all. I'm not going to trawl through the rest -

im not going to do the research for you. do it yourself there is a start am i saying something is going to happen? NO i am just saying its a pretty big coincodince

You made the claim: back it up.
The only "coincidence" here is the number of gullible people that are prepared to subscribe to the rubbish.

 

[Read-Only]

The Mayan
The I-Ching
The Cybil
Sumerian's
Egyptian
Hopi Indians
Merlin
Nostradamus

im not going to do the research for you. do it yourself there is a start am i saying something is going to happen? NO i am just saying its a pretty big coincodince

Again, get real !!! It's YOUR silly claim that ALL of those predict something happening "in the same month of the same year" and I say that's nuts.

So since YOU made the claim it's up to YOU to prove it - either that or admit you were just being silly. :bugeye: