What's new in Syria

[joepistole]

http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...strategic-town-of-salma-in-northeast-latakia/ writes:

"... the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade of the Republican Guard – in close coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF), the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), Liwaa Suqour Al-Sahra (Desert Hawks Brigade), the Russian Air Force, and Muqawama Souri (Syrian Resistance) – liberated the strategic town of Salma after a short battle this morning with the Islamist rebels of Jabhat Al-Nusra (Syrian Al-Qaeda group) and the Free Syrian Army (FSA)."

This is really great, it is essentially the most important city in whole Latakia which was under control of the terrorists.

The speed is has been taken today surprises everybody, but even opposition sources admit that Salma has been taken by the SAA. It should be noted that the SAA has been quite close to Salma already quite a long time, already in October AFAIR, but it was heavily defended, and the army has, instead, started to attack and advance in other places and to surround it with time. So, more and more heights around have been taken, so it was already cutted from South, West, and during the last days also from the East. Despite this, everybody has expected a quite long battle for the town itself.

If this will not be followed by at least some heavy counterattacks during the next days, it means the war has already destroyed a lot of the terrorists power.

All you are doing here is re-posting Syrian and Russian state media bullshit. You represent it as fact, when it clearly isn't. You defame Syrian dissidents. You call them terrorists, yet you have no evidence of said terrorism. Coming from Mother Russia as you do, you confuse dissent with terrorism.

 

[Schmelzer]

If you think that this is BS, and have reliable sources which claim that Salma has not been taken, feel free to post them.

I call the Syrian terrorists terrorists, because this is the usual name for guys who fight the police and army of a state with weapons and want to establish a horrible fundamentalist dictatorship. This is the name even the US media have used for Al Qaida and the Islamic State. I use it also for groups which cooperate with Al Qaida like the FSA.

 

[CptBork]

If you think that this is BS, and have reliable sources which claim that Salma has not been taken, feel free to post them.

I call the Syrian terrorists terrorists, because this is the usual name for guys who fight the police and army of a state with weapons and want to establish a horrible fundamentalist dictatorship. This is the name even the US media have used for Al Qaida and the Islamic State. I use it also for groups which cooperate with Al Qaida like the FSA.

Assad cooperated with ISIS and Al Qaida while America occupied Iraq. During the Afghan occupation, Iran even gave asylum to some of Bin Laden's own children, who are still part of the organization. I'm guessing you deliberately ignore all that because you're a lying piece of shit, but go ahead and give me a different excuse if you feel the urge.

 

[Schmelzer]

The question I had yesterday was if the terrorists will have the power to react, and to try to recapture Salma. It looks like not. Today, even several villages all around Salma have been taken, in the West, North, as well as East of Salma, so that Salma itself is actually already some km away from the front. Looks like a serious breakdown of the defense lines.

The day has been a good one in other regions too. East of Aleppo the SAA has taken a village from the IS near Al Bab, West of Aleppo there was some progress too - the street between Khan Al Asal and Al Rashideen is now under control, North of Home a village has been taken, in Sheikh Miskeen some 10% of the town have been taken, so that the army now controls 80%, in East Ghouta another village. The only bad news that, after some week of attacks near Palmyra against the IS, the IS has started a counterattack and reached there some success.

 

[CptBork]

For those Russians not too drunk to read: while you're busy stooping down to lick Putin's shrivelled nut sack (or your own, for those too poor to reach Moscow), have a good look at the terror your own allies have supported, the same jihadists your army is now in Syria to not fight.

Iraq's former national security advisor Mowaffak al-Rubaie had warned Syrian President Bashar al-Assad against supporting "jihadi" militants who later become leaders in the Islamic State (IS), the former top Iraqi official said.

The alleged support and training for the militants took place in Syria and was carried out by government security forces who reportedly wanted to keep American troops busy fighting in Iraq following the 2003 US-led invasion of the country.

"I went and met President Bashar al-Assad twice, and presented him with material evidence, documents, satellite pictures, confessions, all sort of evidence that his security forces were involved in active (sic) and transporting jihadist from Syria to Iraq," Rubaie told Al Jazeera, in the first of a two-part documentary entitled Enemy of Enemies: The Rise of ISIL aired earlier this week.

"And also, there were training camps with names and locations. He (Assad) was in total denial of that. I remember telling him that this will - in no time – backfire on Syria," he added.

The documentary suggested that there were secret meeting between representatives of Assad, and former Iraqi Baathist officers as well as "jihadi" militants. It says that the meetings were hosted by Damascus prior to the Syrian uprising in March 2011. It is unclear when exactly they met.

- See more at: http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/i...-not-aid-jihadists-former-official-1553468312

​

 

[Schmelzer]

It should be noted that the claims of http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/i...-not-aid-jihadists-former-official-1553468312 are not completely implausible. One should not forget that Syria was a typical Arab dictatorship, thus, also with some deep state behind, and that Assad has had a hard job to get, after his fathers death, complete control over the state. That some parts of the ruling elite have made their own policy, without caring much about what Assad the son tells, was one of the inner problems of the Syrian government which has created a lot of harm. So I would not wonder at all if the Syrian secret services would have cooperated with the Iraqian baathists against the US. with or without Assad's knowledge.

 

[CptBork]

It should be noted that the claims of http://www.middleeasteye.net/news/i...-not-aid-jihadists-former-official-1553468312 are not completely implausible. One should not forget that Syria was a typical Arab dictatorship, thus, also with some deep state behind, and that Assad has had a hard job to get, after his fathers death, complete control over the state. That some parts of the ruling elite have made their own policy, without caring much about what Assad the son tells, was one of the inner problems of the Syrian government which has created a lot of harm.

If it's ok for elements of Assad's government to have supported ISIS and Al Qaeda over the last decade while allied with Russia under Putin, and it's still ok for Putin to cooperate with those exact same regime elements today, then why are secular Syrian rebels not allowed to forge temporary alliances with hardline Islamists in order to survive the barrel bombs?

So I would not wonder at all if the Syrian secret services would have cooperated with the Iraqian baathists against the US. with or without Assad's knowledge.

If Assad is completely unaware of what his own security services have done under his own orders in his own country, then he was never the legitimate leader in the first place, and that's a fact under international law. On the other hand, if Assad was aware of his government's support for ISIS, then that makes him a war criminal who must be barrel bombed to death according to your own arguments.

 

[Schmelzer]

If it's ok for elements of Assad's government to have supported ISIS and Al Qaeda over the last decade while allied with Russia under Putin, and it's still ok for Putin to cooperate with those exact same regime elements today, then why are secular Syrian rebels not allowed to forge temporary alliances with hardline Islamists in order to survive the barrel bombs?

I have not said it is ok. I would say that this claim should not be immediately dismissed as propaganda, that there is some plausibility behind it.

If the Syrian secret service has really supported some terrorists in Iraq, this would be a violation of international law of the same type the US is doing now and all the time in Syria. But there is, of course, a subtlety: If those supported were simply baathists, that means soldiers of Saddam Hussein's regime who have not given up fighting, this would be legitimate by international law, because it would have been legitimate for every country to support Hussein against the US aggression. Once these baathists became, instead, founders of the ISIS, they have given up this legitimacy and became simply terrorists. But such subtleties are things nobody cares about in these countries.

If Assad is completely unaware of what his own security services have done under his own orders in his own country, then he was never the legitimate leader in the first place, and that's a fact under international law.

Nonsense. It happens quite often, that secret services do dubious things and no official person acknowledges that it has known about this. This happens for various reasons: It is, of course, one of the functions of secret services to do dirty things the government wants, but does not want to acknowledge openly. But there is also the other possibility that the secret services are really out of control by the government. This has nothing to do with the legitimacy of the particular government - the government may be legitimate, the secret service criminal and out of control.

 

[joepistole]

I have not said it is ok. I would say that this claim should not be immediately dismissed as propaganda, that there is some plausibility behind it.

But here is the problem, you summarily dismiss everything which doesn't comport with your beliefs as propaganda, evidence be damned, and you dismiss virtually everything.

If the Syrian secret service has really supported some terrorists in Iraq, this would be a violation of international law of the same type the US is doing now and all the time in Syria. But there is, of course, a subtlety: If those supported were simply baathists, that means soldiers of Saddam Hussein's regime who have not given up fighting, this would be legitimate by international law, because it would have been legitimate for every country to support Hussein against the US aggression. Once these baathists became, instead, founders of the ISIS, they have given up this legitimacy and became simply terrorists. But such subtleties are things nobody cares about in these countries.

A couple of things, dropping nerve gas on innocent men, women and children is also against international law, but that has't stopped Assad and his agents from doing it. And as for the US, where is your evidence? The fact is you have none. You are just doing what you always do, mindlessly repeat Putin's propaganda from Russian government sources.

Nonsense. It happens quite often, that secret services do dubious things and no official person acknowledges that it has known about this. This happens for various reasons: It is, of course, one of the functions of secret services to do dirty things the government wants, but does not want to acknowledge openly. But there is also the other possibility that the secret services are really out of control by the government. This has nothing to do with the legitimacy of the particular government - the government may be legitimate, the secret service criminal and out of control.

If a government can not exercise control over itself, then it really isn't a government. That's one reason why only a few countries in the world continue to recognize the legitimacy of Assad's regime. Most countries do not recognized the legitimacy of Assad's regime. This too as been previously brought to your attention.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Natio...d_Opposition_Forces#International_recognition

 

[Schmelzer]

But here is the problem, you summarily dismiss everything which doesn't comport with your beliefs as propaganda, evidence be damned, and you dismiss virtually everything.

Written as an answer to a post where I do not summarily dismiss some claims which are quite uncomfortable for Assad. LOL.

But, indeed, the nonsense you write can be almost always summarily dismissed as propaganda.

 

[Schmelzer]

Now, the situation around Salma has become more clear - the counterattacks from Al Qaida and FSA which have been expected are over, without success, and the Syrian army continues now its advances. And the success which has been reached during the last days is quite impressive, if one looks at the road map: One can find there a place where the M4 highway Latakia-Idlib meets three of the major local streets - one leading to Salma, one to Rabia, and one going parallel to the Turkish border. Near the place where they meet is also a dam. Now, this region, including the dam, is under control of the Syrian army. One can think that these roads have not played a large role for the terrorists already for some time, because some heights nearby have been already under army control, but nonetheless some transport may have nonetheless happened. Now it is completely closed, and, even more, this can be used now by the Syrian army.

Moreover, the very fight for this central road connection point was not impressive at all - it was not seriously defended by the terrorists. That means not only that there is now no longer any street connection to Rabia, so that to support it with heavy weapons seems close to impossible now, but there have not even be enough forces to fight for this possibility. So, it may be that at least the Western part of Northern Latakia - the part left without any good street connection even to the Turkish border - has been essentially given up.

We will see. There was, on the other hand, information that some strong Chechen terrorist support has come from Turkey.

 

[joepistole]

Written as an answer to a post where I do not summarily dismiss some claims which are quite uncomfortable for Assad. LOL.

But, indeed, the nonsense you write can be almost always summarily dismissed as propaganda.

Except you do and you have summarily dismissed any and all evidence which doesn't support Mother Russia's (i.e. Assad's) party line. And you go further, you also misrepresent fiction as nonfiction. Just because you don't like honest facts, it doesn't make them propaganda.

 

[joepistole]

Now, the situation around Salma has become more clear - the counterattacks from Al Qaida and FSA which have been expected are over, without success, and the Syrian army continues now its advances. And the success which has been reached during the last days is quite impressive, if one looks at the road map: One can find there a place where the M4 highway Latakia-Idlib meets three of the major local streets - one leading to Salma, one to Rabia, and one going parallel to the Turkish border. Near the place where they meet is also a dam. Now, this region, including the dam, is under control of the Syrian army. One can think that these roads have not played a large role for the terrorists already for some time, because some heights nearby have been already under army control, but nonetheless some transport may have nonetheless happened. Now it is completely closed, and, even more, this can be used now by the Syrian army.

Moreover, the very fight for this central road connection point was not impressive at all - it was not seriously defended by the terrorists. That means not only that there is now no longer any street connection to Rabia, so that to support it with heavy weapons seems close to impossible now, but there have not even be enough forces to fight for this possibility. So, it may be that at least the Western part of Northern Latakia - the part left without any good street connection even to the Turkish border - has been essentially given up.

We will see. There was, on the other hand, information that some strong Chechen terrorist support has come from Turkey.

Well here is the deal, since Russia's intervention in Syria several months ago, the facts on the ground remain essentially unchanged. Russia has spent precious resources it can ill afford to loose for essentially nothing. And in that long, noble and glorious Russian tradition, you continue to misrepresent dissidents as terrorists.

 

[Schmelzer]

Well here is the deal, since Russia's intervention in Syria several months ago, the facts on the ground remain essentially unchanged. Russia has spent precious resources it can ill afford to loose for essentially nothing.

Except that Russia has, with quite minimal forces, changed the whole direction of movement on the ground. Before Russia came, Assad was loosing, now he is winning. Of Latakia, Assad has already won back I would say 40% of what the terrorists have controlled before, inclusive their most important secure stronghold Salma. And now, it seems, they are even unable to defend even their supply lines, at least in Latakia. Turkey and the Saudi-Arabia have to do something to support their terrorists better, else Latakia will be free in quite short time. Because the actual situation looks similar to a collapse of the whole front in Latakia: After my post, another 4 villages are claimed to have been taken by SAA, and this on at least three different sides of Rabia.

And Russia has spend almost nothing for this - the force is quite small, their pilots get good training in wartime conditions, they would need similar flight hours in Russia as well, so for all this is paid out of the regular budget. And that means, Russia can continue on this level quite a long time. If one takes into account the profits for Russian defense industry related with this action (people prefer to buy what has shown its ability in real wars) the whole action will be even profitable.

 

[joepistole]

Except that Russia has, with quite minimal forces, changed the whole direction of movement on the ground. Before Russia came, Assad was loosing, now he is winning. Of Latakia, Assad has already won back I would say 40% of what the terrorists have controlled before, inclusive their most important secure stronghold Salma. And now, it seems, they are even unable to defend even their supply lines, at least in Latakia. Turkey and the Saudi-Arabia have to do something to support their terrorists better, else Latakia will be free in quite short time. Because the actual situation looks similar to a collapse of the whole front in Latakia: After my post, another 4 villages are claimed to have been taken by SAA, and this on at least three different sides of Rabia.

And Russia has spend almost nothing for this - the force is quite small, their pilots get good training in wartime conditions, they would need similar flight hours in Russia as well, so for all this is paid out of the regular budget. And that means, Russia can continue on this level quite a long time. If one takes into account the profits for Russian defense industry related with this action (people prefer to buy what has shown its ability in real wars) the whole action will be even profitable.

Except as is the norm with you, your statement just isn't factually correct. Aside from killing innocent civilians, Mother Russia's intervention in Syria has been an utter failure. What has Mother Russia gained? Absolutely nothing....Russia has lost a significant portion of its cruise missiles about a quarter of which crashed well short of their targets. One of its warplanes was shot down and a crew member was killed and a Russian civilian airliner has been destroyed killing all on-board, killing hundreds of Russians....and for what? The situation on the ground remains essentially unchanged.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...syria-struggle-to-spur-progress-on-the-ground

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...2831c7-b3fc-4aa9-8dc8-7c94b867ed3e_story.html

http://defence.pk/threads/russias-a...futile-with-little-progress-on-ground.414397/

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/6990/russia-failure-syria

The question is, how long can Mother Russia continue? With oil prices falling and Russia's economy in shambles, Russia can ill afford much more of Putin's militarism. I guess we will all get to see the Russian 2.0 collapse. Russia appears to be on course for another collapse of the Russian state.

One airliner, one warplane, 21 cruise missiles, numerous bombs and hundreds of Russian lives isn't "almost nothing". And Mother Russia's costs keep rising.

 

[Schmelzer]

Do you read your own sources? Let's check: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...2831c7-b3fc-4aa9-8dc8-7c94b867ed3e_story.html

Before:

Russia “saw this as a moment where the regime really needed to be shored up,” said Christopher Kozak, Syria analyst at the Washington-based Institute for the Study of War. “Rebel forces were pressing up against core regime territory [in Latakia], and Russia saw that the regime was not going to be able to do this on its own.”

After:

and it has helped government forces break a two-year siege by Islamic State militants on the Kweires air base in Aleppo and seize two towns from rebels southwest of Aleppo city.

By the way, progress in Latakia actually continues.

shows the progress of yesterday, see also http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/25109/ for more.

 

[CptBork]

The territorial exchanges have been minor since the Russian intervention began, but it has indeed put the rebels on the defensive along most fronts, except in areas under exclusive ISIS control. However, that momentum would once again reverse very quickly if Russia were to scale back or end its involvement at this point, and the rebel movement would then be left stronger, more determined and more anti-Russian than ever before.

Looks to me like the rebels just need to hold out until Russia's economy implodes and its troops are back home starving to death alongside their retarded inbred families, and then Assad and his troupe of circus clowns will really be in for it. Ironically, it looks as if Russia's fundamentalist allies in Iran will be the ones to put the last nail in the coffin as they look to flood world markets with even more oil.

 

[Schmelzer]

LOL, your hopes for the implosion of Russian economy are illusions. The oil price will certainly not kill the Russian economy. It become much more independent on imports during the last two years, the sanctions together with a cheap ruble have reached this. Nobody will starve to death in one of the greatest wheat-exporting countries of the world, and the Russian countersanctions have been made intentionally on the agrarian sector where the imports have been high at that time, giving the Russian agrarian sector a nice protection, which has been used. Russia was forced to pay back a lot of credits during the last years because of the sanctions, thus, it has already paid back a lot of it and now it has to spend much less for interests. Essentially Russia is strong now in everything it needs to survive a big crisis: Low credit burden, agriculture, oil and other crude materials, really good weapons. So it seems more reasonable to expect that the terrorist money go out, if Turkey and Saudi Arabia go down.

You are also wrong about the IS front. The Kuweiris front East of Aleppo is IS, and this is a front where Syria has made quite serious progress. The breakdown of the siege of the Kuweiris airport was only a start. After this, the Kuweiris airport has become the starting point for extensions. Nothing serious, just trying the IS defenses all around Kuweiris, and moving by the way closer toward important IS-held towns like Deir Hafer (now around 4km away) and Al Bab (now around 10 km away). Today they have again taken two villages from IS, endangering now another direction. Here about the capture of the first one: http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-capture-qatar-village-in-east-aleppo/ (the second is up to now unconfirmed twitter only).

Regarding IS, you should not forget that it was Russia who has started to attack the oil business of IS. And it has also supported the Kurdish offensive to get the Tishrin dam, which now endangers another important town, Manbidzh (maybe 15 km away). Thus, the three most importand town held by IS in the region between Aleppo and the Euphrat are now all endangered, some major supply lines cupped, if I would be an IS leader I would be very unhappy about the whole situation there. In fact, IS is giving up a whole part of Damascus which it controls to get their fighters transported to their mainland.

 

[joepistole]

Do you read your own sources? Let's check: https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...2831c7-b3fc-4aa9-8dc8-7c94b867ed3e_story.html

LOL....the question is, do you? Per the previously referenced journals, the facts are Mother Russia has paid much and gained little to nothing. The situation on the ground remains largely unchanged.

Putin has once again managed to stick in foot into another bear trap. Mother Russia appears to be intent on repeating the mistakes of its past which will ultimately end with another collapse of the Russian state. As has been previously pointed out to you, Russia needs 100 dollar per barrel oil and is selling in the 27-30 dollar range and it's not going to get much better in the coming months. Russia is now bogged down in Ukraine, Georgia, and Syria. Bodies are returning to Mother Russia in body bags thanks to beloved Mother Putin.

 

[joepistole]

LOL, your hopes for the implosion of Russian economy are illusions. The oil price will certainly not kill the Russian economy. It become much more independent on imports during the last two years, the sanctions together with a cheap ruble have reached this. Nobody will starve to death in one of the greatest wheat-exporting countries of the world, and the Russian countersanctions have been made intentionally on the agrarian sector where the imports have been high at that time, giving the Russian agrarian sector a nice protection, which has been used. Russia was forced to pay back a lot of credits during the last years because of the sanctions, thus, it has already paid back a lot of it and now it has to spend much less for interests. Essentially Russia is strong now in everything it needs to survive a big crisis: Low credit burden, agriculture, oil and other crude materials, really good weapons. So it seems more reasonable to expect that the terrorist money go out, if Turkey and Saudi Arabia go down.

You need to tell that to your Russian comrades. Because that's not what they are saying.

http://news.yahoo.com/russian-families-feel-pain-economic-crisis-drags-164731673.html

You are also wrong about the IS front. The Kuweiris front East of Aleppo is IS, and this is a front where Syria has made quite serious progress. The breakdown of the siege of the Kuweiris airport was only a start. After this, the Kuweiris airport has become the starting point for extensions. Nothing serious, just trying the IS defenses all around Kuweiris, and moving by the way closer toward important IS-held towns like Deir Hafer (now around 4km away) and Al Bab (now around 10 km away). Today they have again taken two villages from IS, endangering now another direction. Here about the capture of the first one: http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/tiger-forces-capture-qatar-village-in-east-aleppo/ (the second is up to now unconfirmed twitter only).

Regarding IS, you should not forget that it was Russia who has started to attack the oil business of IS. And it has also supported the Kurdish offensive to get the Tishrin dam, which now endangers another important town, Manbidzh (maybe 15 km away). Thus, the three most importand town held by IS in the region between Aleppo and the Euphrat are now all endangered, some major supply lines cupped, if I would be an IS leader I would be very unhappy about the whole situation there. In fact, IS is giving up a whole part of Damascus which it controls to get their fighters transported to their mainland.

Except, he isn't. He is correct. As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, all you are doing is promulgating Russia state owned and controlled media sources and Assad's media outlets.