What's new in Syria

[Schmelzer]

Joepisole as usually in complete denial about the situation around the Kuweiris airport, who cares. An AFP reporter has found a family which no longer buys meat every day. Horrible, tomorrow they will starve to death. Funny dreams about Russia receiving body bags and being bogged down in Georgia (LOL, they have all they could want there since 2008), Ukraine (where Putin's Minsk II holds more or less, and the Donbass has enough people and weapons to defend itself if necessary) and Syria (where actually one of the terrorist's fronts is collapsing). Together with the fantasy that Russia needs a 100$ price for oil.

By the way, the fight for Rabia seems to have started already. But you can have some hope: There are claims that some reinforcements for the terrorists have arrived. May be they can stop the collapse? Quite possible, up to now this has helped already several times.

 

[joepistole]

Joepisole as usually in complete denial about the situation around the Kuweiris airport, who cares. An AFP reporter has found a family which no longer buys meat every day. Horrible, tomorrow they will starve to death. Funny dreams about Russia receiving body bags and being bogged down in Georgia (LOL, they have all they could want there since 2008), Ukraine (where Putin's Minsk II holds more or less, and the Donbass has enough people and weapons to defend itself if necessary) and Syria (where actually one of the terrorist's fronts is collapsing). Together with the fantasy that Russia needs a 100$ price for oil.

By the way, the fight for Rabia seems to have started already. But you can have some hope: There are claims that some reinforcements for the terrorists have arrived. May be they can stop the collapse? Quite possible, up to now this has helped already several times.

Denial isn't a river in Egypt comrade. So Mother Russia doesn't use body bags to send dead Russians back to Mother Russia's? Are things that bad in Mother Russia, that the state can no longer afford body bags?

The facts are very clear. Mother Russia is in dire straits. It's economy is in shambles. It is over extended even with Putin's increased military spending. It has troops in Georgia, Ukraine, and now Syria...troops it cannot afford. And what has it earned? The disgust of the civilized world...

And it has very little to show for it. Russia's intervention in Syria has not had a significant impact in Syria.

By the way you need to learn how to spell my name.

 

[CptBork]

Here's a fifth column Russian propaganda Western-based news source that Schmelzer ought to approve of, detailing the Russian economic collapse just like everyone else: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-...ws-panic-some-investors-are-selling-any-price

Russia has been cushioned from the worst economic blows by its initially $500 billion slush fund built up in times of prosperity, but that's almost depleted now at a time when oil revenues are hitting record lows and still dropping, the Ruble is collapsing, hyperinflation and economic depression are already overtaking Russia, and it's bogged down in two costly wars with multiple military occupations on the side.

The best sign of just how bad things really are in Russia, and how much worse it's yet to become, is to see all the Kremlin trolls in the article's comments section threatening nuclear war and blaming Yankees and Jews for not giving them free money.

 

[joepistole]

No Mother Russia isn't suffering. Her people are.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-oil-prices-collapse.html

 

[Schmelzer]

Russia can afford coffins if there is a need for this, actually there is none.

And who cares if some dealers have panic? People speculate when the Russian bank will start to support the ruble, there is agreement that certainly not below 90. And regarding the reserves:

What matters is the relation between what one has to pay - the debts (the blue curve, which includes also all the Russian corporate debts, thus, also a lot of fake debts to Russian owned firms in Cyprus and so on) and the reserves of the Russian state (green curve).

Of course, it is not easy for a state which exports a lot of oil if the oil price goes down in such a way. We will see who survives this better.

And, by the way, there is information about fighting inside Rabia.

 

[Schmelzer]

And there is even more information, already from different people, that Rabia is liberated. Even the first article:
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...tronghold-of-al-rabiyah-and-3-other-villages/

 

[CptBork]

And who cares if some dealers have panic? People speculate when the Russian bank will start to support the ruble, there is agreement that certainly not below 90.

Russia's banks are running out of cash to support the Rouble, that's why government ministers were just recently talking about selling off shares in state-owned banks to raise cash, only to then realize that the shares themselves are almost worthless now compared to one year ago. The only place they're allowed to create fictional dollars is on rt.com, where they can conjure cash and good economic news out of thin air at will. The slush fund is almost dry now, and in a relatively short time period you'll be paying dearly along with the rest of your comrades for going Nazi on the world.

And, by the way, there is information about fighting inside Rabia.

Not one mention about Deir Ezzor even as hundreds of regime soldiers die in its defense as we speak? As I said, Russia's helped to temporarily reverse the tide of battle in areas where ISIS doesn't maintain exclusive control, i.e. areas deemed critical to the regime's survival, but it almost totally neglects areas under ISIS control which aren't considered critical for the regime or which lack any presence from other rebel factions.

 

[Schmelzer]

So, it seem the main town of the FSA in Latakia has been taken without much fighting, given that even yesterday the Syrian army was more than a km away from it in all directions. It looks indeed like a complete collapse of the Northern Latakia front - for the defense of the main town, it is in general not impossible to stop a collapse, because of the importance of a successful defense for the own morals. I have expected at least several days of heavy defense, as we see it actually in Sheikh Miskeen, which is 80% liberated but the remaining 20% are yet heavily defended. And a longer defense of Rabia could also motivate supporters to arrive.

Not so in this case, Rabia was essentially taken without powerful resistance. There is now nothing left in the part North of the M4 road worth to be defended - essentially only a few km of forest up to the Turkish border, so one can expect that what remains there will be controlled in short time by the Syrian army. And this is what makes the victory strategically important: This is an important part of the Turkish border, and the terrorism in Syria depends on support from outside, in particular from the Turkish side. There is, o course, yet enough Turkish border under terrorist control, but the part in Latakia is especially interesting because it cannot be easily controlled from the air (a lot of forests).

It is also important because there live a lot of Turkmen people here, and that's why this is the region which Erdogan would like to occupy. So the liberation of this region decreases also the danger that Erdogan goes insane and starts a war. It was not accidentally that it was in this region where the Russian jet was shot by the Turks.

Which leads to another point why this region was especially interesting for the Russians: After their plane has been shot, and some of the local terrorists have killed one of the pilots, the guys fighting here were special enemies of the Russians. This makes it also important from the Arabic point of view - they care a lot about such things, and successfully liberating the region where the Russian pilot has been shot means a lot. In some sense, the region has always been important for the Russians - first, because this region was known to be one with a lot of Chechen and other Russian-speaking fighters, second because of the closeness to the Russian airbase.

So, I would say if taking Salma and taking Rabia alone are victories on the operative level, taken together with the advances during the new year this is already a victory of strategic importance.

Even if there is, yet, something to do to finish it. The Syrian army is aware of this, and does not loose time, today 3 km North of Rabia another village has been liberated.

 

[Schmelzer]

Fantasies about Russian banks running out of cash to support the ruble in a situation where they haven't even started to do this I will ignore.

Not one mention about Deir Ezzor even as hundreds of regime soldiers die in its defense as we speak?

The context was the question if there have been, up to now, some successes or not. Deir Ezzor is a region where not much has changed. The IS attacks and attacks, loosing a lot of fighters, the general of the defenders is a famous guy who has managed to defend successfully.

In the last big offensive, IS has made some gains, which have been already reversed. Because one of these gains was a village, the IS has made there what they are good at, namely murdered hundreds of civilians and taking hundreds others as hostages. Some of your media may, of course, celebrate this, given that there are family members of some Syrian solidiers among the victims. I don't know.

I have to admit that I have no certain numbers about the casualties of above sides. As usual, the pro-Syrian side gives high number of IS casualties, the IS side similar high numbers of the Syrian army, you seem to read pro-IS sites.

As I said, Russia's helped to temporarily reverse the tide of battle in areas where ISIS doesn't maintain exclusive control, i.e. areas deemed critical to the regime's survival, but it almost totally neglects areas under ISIS control which aren't considered critical for the regime or which lack any presence from other rebel factions.

What do you recommend? It is not the Russian way to simply bomb areas. This is what was the classical Anglo-American strategy - to bomb, bomb, bomb. The Russians bomb in the area close to the front, or if they have particular targets, like a munition depot in Aqayrbat http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/russian-air-force-destroys-largest-isis-camp-in-east-hama/ This is what makes sense - destroying the enemy near the frontline to allow the own troops to advance, or to stop attacks of the enemy - and minimizes civilian causalties.

 

[joepistole]

Russia can afford coffins if there is a need for this, actually there is none.

Oh, so contrary to your prior statement, Mother Russia is sending all those dead Russians back to Mother Russia in body bags?

And who cares if some dealers have panic?

Yeah, who cares if Russians panic?

People speculate when the Russian bank will start to support the ruble, there is agreement that certainly not below 90. And regarding the reserves:

What matters is the relation between what one has to pay - the debts (the blue curve, which includes also all the Russian corporate debts, thus, also a lot of fake debts to Russian owned firms in Cyprus and so on) and the reserves of the Russian state (green curve).

I don't think you get it. The Russian central bank has been supporting the ruble. But it's running out of ammunition. That's why Mother Russia has double digit inflation. Additionally, if Mother Russia is as virtuous as you represent it to be, then why all this "fake debt" you now claim exists? Here is another problem for you and your Mother Russia, unlike the US, Russia's debt isn't denominated in rubles. Russia and Russian firms owe US Dollars and Euros. Russia cannot print its way out of debt.

Now if you believe what Russian banking officials are telling other Russian government officals, the Russian central bank could very well deplete its reserve fund by the end of this year. That's a disaster for Mother Russia.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/27/russias-reserve-fund-could-run-empty-in-2016.html

Based on numbers released by the Russian central bank, its foreign currency reserves have already been severely depleted. And given Russia's penchant for putting lipstick on pigs, the actual numbers are probably much worse.

Of course, it is not easy for a state which exports a lot of oil if the oil price goes down in such a way. We will see who survives this better.

Yeah, we will see. We have seen.

And, by the way, there is information about fighting inside Rabia.

The fact remains, Russia's intervention into Syria hasn't materially changed the facts on the ground. Russia has managed to kill untold numbers of innocent civilians and helped to spawn a massive emigration movement. But that's all it has done, per previously referenced journals. Clearly Assad's troops (i.e. thugs) aren't capable. In order for Mother Russia to make any material impact in Syria, it will need to introduce Russian troops on the ground. That's even more expensive than dropping a few bombs. It will cost Mother Russia blood and treasure, blood and treasure it can ill afford to lose. But hey, it will make Mother Putin feel better.

 

[Schmelzer]

Oh, so contrary to your prior statement, Mother Russia is sending all those dead Russians back to Mother Russia in body bags?

This year we talk about an empty set. The two dead soldiers last year in Syria have been transported home in coffins, not in some bags.

Yeah, who cares if Russians panic?

The Russians don't panic. Last year there was some sort of panic, but the Russians have understood that this is stupid. This year there is no comparable panic among the population.

I don't think you get it. The Russian central bank has been supporting the ruble. But it's running out of ammunition. That's why Mother Russia has double digit inflation.

Yes, it has, some short time last year. And, in case you have not understood the graphic, there would be enough ammunition if it would like to support the ruble. A higher inflation rate than in the West is standard Russian policy.

Additionally, if Mother Russia is as virtuous as you represent it to be, then why all this "fake debt" you now claim exists?

Because Russians, like everybody else on Earth, do not like to pay taxes.

Here is another problem for you and your Mother Russia, unlike the US, Russia's debt isn't denominated in rubles. Russia and Russian firms owe US Dollars and Euros. Russia cannot print its way out of debt.

The currency reserves are also not in rubles. So, look at the picture again, and find out what will reach zero faster. the debt (that's, again, the whole Russian debt, inclusive private firms) or the currency reserves.

Whatever, feel free to dream about a collapsing Russian economy. Of course, nobody in Russia expects that the next years will be easy - given that most expect a big economic crisis worldwide, which is, of course, hard time for everybody. But, as well, everybody understands that there will be some cuts if the oil income is heavily reduced.

The fact remains, Russia's intervention into Syria hasn't materially changed the facts on the ground. ... Clearly Assad's troops (i.e. thugs) aren't capable.

The only fact which remains is that you remain uneducable. Somehow, in Salma and Rabia Syrian soldiers feel comfortable, and make jokes about "we will kill all Alawites" slogans on the walls, but, of course, nothing has changed on the ground. Anyway, I have no problem if during the next years nothing will change in a similar fast way.

[some cheap NATO propaganda deleted without any comment]

 

[Schmelzer]

By the way, for those who like to mediate about nothing has changed, here is a nice actual map about what has changed in Latakia, with the frontline from October 7 last year (when Russia started to act) and some frontlines from last week up to now. I hope this makes clear why I talk about a collapse of the front in the North.

The tactic which has been used to reach all the small advances during the last months has been described as the following: Going from mountain to mountain, positioning artillery on the mountain to attack the next one, together with air force attacks on the supply lines of that next mountain, with the own support lines invisible to the enemy. All this long enough to reduce the defenses. And, then, having a lot of different places where the next attack can follow - one attack in the North, one in the East, one in the South West, so that the enemy can never been aware where the next attack follows, and needs to defend the whole frontline equally well. And, when the mountain has been taken, prepare for taking the next mountain. The villages will, then, be taken only after the surrounding mountains are under control. Gives a high death toll to the enemy with low collateral damage, because civilians have nothing to do on the mountains themself.

There have been claims that the number of terrorists has been heavily reduced over time, from some 10 000s down to 500 around Salma according to one source. But this source has given also another reason for this reduction, additional to the casualties in Latakia themself, namely that a lot of fighters have gone away to other fronts which needed support. That means, quite plausibly, Southern Aleppo, where has been already a similar collapse of a front before (after Al Hader was taken), but this collapse was successfully stopped after a few days.

If this would be true, this would be even better, because now there was, obviously, nobody (or at least not enough) to support this collapsing front. And this would mean the next time a front collapses near Aleppo or so there will be not much support to stop this.

 

[joepistole]

This year we talk about an empty set. The two dead soldiers last year in Syria have been transported home in coffins, not in some bags.

Oh, I see, Mother Russia doesn't use body bags. They embalmed and transported the hundreds of people they lost in the airliner bombing in coffins did they?

The Russians don't panic. Last year there was some sort of panic, but the Russians have understood that this is stupid. This year there is no comparable panic among the population.

LOL....

Yes, it has, some short time last year. And, in case you have not understood the graphic, there would be enough ammunition if it would like to support the ruble. A higher inflation rate than in the West is standard Russian policy.

Ah...yeah your graphic, its just nonsense. Per my last post, your Russian officials have contradicted your graphic. They have warned the Russian government Russian reserve funds will be depleted by year end if not sooner.

Because Russians, like everybody else on Earth, do not like to pay taxes.

So you are saying Russians are fraudsters. Ok. I guess that explains a lot.

The currency reserves are also not in rubles. So, look at the picture again, and find out what will reach zero faster. the debt (that's, again, the whole Russian debt, inclusive private firms) or the currency reserves.

OK, I don't get your point. The fact is Mother Russia's currency reserves are being depleted at an accelerated rate. Russia has basically one source of foreign currency and that is its oil and natural gas sales. And we all know what has happened to its oil and natural gas sales. It's oil and natural gas sales are off by some 70-80 percent. That's a problem, a big problem, for Mother Russia.

Whatever, feel free to dream about a collapsing Russian economy. Of course, nobody in Russia expects that the next years will be easy - given that most expect a big economic crisis worldwide, which is, of course, hard time for everybody. But, as well, everybody understands that there will be some cuts if the oil income is heavily reduced.

Well a 70+ percent cut is more than just "some cuts" and Mother Russia has deep problems with international sanctions as well. It's a double whammy for Mother Russia.

The only fact which remains is that you remain uneducable. Somehow, in Salma and Rabia Syrian soldiers feel comfortable, and make jokes about "we will kill all Alawites" slogans on the walls, but, of course, nothing has changed on the ground. Anyway, I have no problem if during the next years nothing will change in a similar fast way.

[some cheap NATO propaganda deleted without any comment]

LOL...yeah cheap NATO propaganda. Just because you don't like the honest truth, it doesn't make the truth "cheap NATO propaganda".

 

[joepistole]

I don't think Mother Russia has a viable game plan in Syria. That has been Putin's pattern not only in Syria but in Ukraine and Georgia as well.

 

[Schmelzer]

They embalmed and transported the hundreds of people they lost in the airliner bombing in coffins did they?

I have never cared about this, if you are interested in such questions care yourself.

So you are saying Russians are fraudsters. Ok.

No. I don't ust any namecalling for natural self-defense against extortion by governments. Nor for the Russians doing such things, nor for Americans, nor anybody else.

Well a 70+ percent cut is more than just "some cuts" and Mother Russia has deep problems with international sanctions as well. It's a double whammy for Mother Russia.

So, some economic crisis is quite natural and has to be expected. On the other hand, there is now a new market for the Russian agrarian sector, as well as for almost everything which can be sold in the West given the low ruble course.

 

[Schmelzer]

I don't think Mother Russia has a viable game plan in Syria. That has been Putin's pattern not only in Syria but in Ukraine and Georgia as well.

Fine, so we can hope for a game as nice as that in Georgia or Crimea?

Above were, by the way, reactions: It was Georgia which has attacked Southern Ossetia, breaking the old ceasefire. And it was not Russia which has overturn the legal president of the Ukraine, which has lead to the secessionist movements. So it would be strange if Russia could follow a game plan - the best one could hope for are some general preparations for such cases.

In the case of Syria, the main idea was, as far as one can judge, to prevent actual plans of Turkey and the US to impose a no-fly-zone following the Libyan scenario, but without caring about the UNSC supporting it. This has been prevented. In this sense, everything is fine even without big gains on the ground.

 

[Schmelzer]

By the way, an interesting article about Syria: https://www.facebook.com/naji.aliadeeb/posts/10153242439895812 from foreignaffairs.

President Bashar al-Assad is winning in Syria. Russia has shifted the balance of power there dramatically. U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry and the UN might insist that Assad negotiate with his opponents and ultimately cede power to them, but the Syrian president has no intention of accepting such demands. His advisers state that he will go to talks in Geneva this month “to listen, but not to negotiate.” In other words, he is still out for victory on the battlefield.
...
The main reason for Assad’s renewed confidence is a clear reversal of military fortune. Three months ago, Assad’s army was beleaguered.
...
Meanwhile, Russia’s advanced aircraft, helicopters, and tanks have been pounding the Victory Army for months. Russian aircrews fly close to 200 sorties a day, allowing Assad and his allies to go on the offensive in both the north and south of Syria.

and a lot of other political speculation, from an American position, but not of the primitive propaganda sort.

 

[Schmelzer]

While the progress continues in Latakia, as http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-captures-several-sites-along-the-turkish-border/ describes now with direction toward the third place which is considered to be a stronghold of the terrorists (that means, easy to defend because located on a hilltop and prepared for defense over a long time), Kinsabba, there was something much more important - namely that the town Sheikh Miskeen was liberated by the Syrian army.

In fact, it was liberated already Monday or Tuesday, but initially it was not completely clear how much resistance there remained - and a large part of the town, around 70%, was already liberated a week or so ago, with counterattacks following to take back the town. And even at the day of liberation were have been information about a lot of new supporters for the FSA. But it seems this has been misinformation, and today not only the town itself has been liberated, but even some buffer zone around it. http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...thern-daraa-as-the-syrian-army-advances-west/

The battle for this town has been a very long one, essentially all the battle in this region has been inside the town of Daraa itself or around and in Sheikh Miskeen. So, this is not "yet another small town", but also a sufficiently big victory, and it will probably not remain without further consequences. One consequence is visible on the map: The connection between Damascus and Daraa clearly becomes easier and safer.

 

[CptBork]

While the progress continues in Latakia, as http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-captures-several-sites-along-the-turkish-border/ describes now with direction toward the third place which is considered to be a stronghold of the terrorists (that means, easy to defend because located on a hilltop and prepared for defense over a long time), Kinsabba, there was something much more important - namely that the town Sheikh Miskeen was liberated by the Syrian army.

In fact, it was liberated already Monday or Tuesday, but initially it was not completely clear how much resistance there remained - and a large part of the town, around 70%, was already liberated a week or so ago, with counterattacks following to take back the town. And even at the day of liberation were have been information about a lot of new supporters for the FSA. But it seems this has been misinformation, and today not only the town itself has been liberated, but even some buffer zone around it. http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...thern-daraa-as-the-syrian-army-advances-west/

The battle for this town has been a very long one, essentially all the battle in this region has been inside the town of Daraa itself or around and in Sheikh Miskeen. So, this is not "yet another small town", but also a sufficiently big victory, and it will probably not remain without further consequences. One consequence is visible on the map: The connection between Damascus and Daraa clearly becomes easier and safer.

So can we take this as confirmation that Russia doesn't give a crap about fighting ISIS until everyone else is dead?

 

[Schmelzer]

So can we take this as confirmation that Russia doesn't give a crap about fighting ISIS until everyone else is dead?

Why this?

On the front of the fight with ISIS there has been also a small victory, a small village near the Kuweiris airport has been liberated. There seems to be more serious plans for the next days, see http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...eration-to-liberate-the-aleppo-thermal-plant/

ISIS simply plays no special role for Russia - it is simply one of many terrorist groups in Syria. Nonetheless, the deblocking of the Kuweiris airport was the first big victory after the Russians came, and it was against ISIS.