The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

Just an informational note: I no longer moderate B&E and don't know who does.
it was more of a statement on the level of ignorance and flagrent disregard for reality micheal shows than any knowledge of the inner workings of who mods B&E
 
No surprise here, but more today on prior post 980 about China's rival to the US dominated World Bank:
http://news.yahoo.com/beijing-welcomes-britains-move-join-china-backed-bank-090935581.html said:
We welcome this decision made by the UK side," Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters at a regular briefing. He said that "if all goes well", Britain would become a prospective member of the bank by the end of the month.
 
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The BNSF freight train loaded with crude oil derailed in northern Illinois on March 5, bursting into flames, prompting officials to suggest that everyone within a mile to evacuate. The train had 103 cars loaded with crude oil, along with two buffer cars loaded with sand. Accident is in a rural area where the Galena River meets the Mississippi, according to company spokesman Andy Williams. A cause for the derailment hadn't yet been determined. Warren Buffett owns BNSF and this is his 2nd or 3d oil train burning!
http://www.startribune.com/business/295251951.html said:
... Williams said at the news conference that only six cars derailed, two of which burst into flames and continued to burn into the night. Firefighters could only access the derailment site by a bike path, said Galena Assistant Fire Chief Bob Conley. They attempted to fight a small fire at the scene but were unable to stop the flames. Firefighters had to pull back for safety reasons and were allowing the fire to burn itself out ...
The derailment comes amid increased public concern about the safety of shipping crude by train. According to the Association of American Railroads, oil shipments by rail jumped from 9,500 carloads in 2008 to 500,000 in 2014, driven by a boom in the Bakken oil patch of North Dakota and Montana, where pipeline limitations force 70 percent of the crude to move by rail.
Since 2008, derailments of oil trains in the U.S. and Canada have seen tank cars break open and ignite on multiple occasions, resulting in huge fires. A train carrying Bakken crude crashed in a Quebec town in 2013, killing 47 people. Last month, a train carrying 3 million gallons of North Dakota crude derailed in a West Virginia snowstorm, shooting fireballs into the sky, leaking oil into a river tributary and forcing hundreds of families to evacuate. In a statement, the Federal Railroad Administration said it was sending investigators to the Illinois derailment site and that the agency will conduct a "thorough investigation," to determine the cause. BNSF spokesman Michael Trevino said railroad employees were on the scene. Illinois Gov. Bruce Rauner also put state personnel and equipment at the ready for deployment ...
 
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US Economic Data Is Having Its Worst Year Since At Least 2000 (ZeroHedge)

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It's getting old but the percentage of missed expectations in economic data is now over 90% since the start of February with three more added to the long list today. This has pushed Bloomberg's US Macro Surprise index to its worst start to a year on record
Ah, breath it in deep, that my friend, is the smell of Great Recovery you're breathing in.... LOL.

Hey, I hear Saint Bernanke gives sermons on the mount for the low low price of $300,000 per 15 minutes, you know, so you can give thanks to the correct Stateist Saint in your prayers tonight. Of course, you'll need to be in the 0.01% Banking Aristocracy who were bailed out and have never been richer in order to get an invite, but meh, that's okay, you can just feel good knowing St. Bernanke is in your prayers.
 
France, Germany and Italy have all agreed to follow Britain’s lead and join a China-led international development bank, according to European officials
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That reaction is when Uncle Sam only knew of England's decision to join, the Chinese rival to the US controlled world bank. It is a 30+ country parade now.
 
The BNSF freight train loaded with crude oil derailed in northern Illinois on March 5, bursting into flames, prompting officials to suggest that everyone within a mile to evacuate.
Given the problems caused by burning oil trains, would you support an additional pipeline?
 
US Economic Data Is Having Its Worst Year Since At Least 2000 (ZeroHedge)

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Ah, breath it in deep, that my friend, is the smell of Great Recovery you're breathing in.... LOL.

Hey, I hear Saint Bernanke gives sermons on the mount for the low low price of $300,000 per 15 minutes, you know, so you can give thanks to the correct Stateist Saint in your prayers tonight. Of course, you'll need to be in the 0.01% Banking Aristocracy who were bailed out and have never been richer in order to get an invite, but meh, that's okay, you can just feel good knowing St. Bernanke is in your prayers.
Rather than read wacko misrepresented material, why don't you read the actual Bloomberg article these wacko web sites claim they reference?

"There's been one notable exception to the gloom, and it's a big one: payrolls. The economy added 295,000 jobs in February and 1.3 million over four months, a reflection of a healthier labor market in which the unemployment rate has fallen to the lowest in almost seven years." - Bloomberg.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...economic-data-most-disappointing-in-the-world

"And there's one rub. The surprise shortfall in the U.S. doesn't necessarily mean the world's largest economy is in dire straights. It's just falling short of some perhaps overly elevated expectations." -Bloomberg
 
... why don't you read the actual Bloomberg article ... http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...economic-data-most-disappointing-in-the-world

"The surprise shortfall in the U.S. doesn't necessarily mean the world's largest economy is in dire straights. It's just falling short of some perhaps overly elevated expectations." -Bloomberg
I read it. Did you miss this graphic that it presents?
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or fact that most recent average salary increase was 3 cents /hour and part time / Big Mac jobs are still an increasing part of the growing labor force, with it continuing decline in participation rate? (not all in this Bloomberg article - some from others I've recently read.) You wouldn't be cherry picking the good facts only, would you?
 
I read it. Did you miss this graphic that it presents?
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or fact that most recent average salary increase was 3 cents /hour and part time / Big Mac jobs are still an increasing part of the growing labor force, with it continuing decline in participation rate? (not all in this Bloomberg article - some from others I've recently read.) You wouldn't be cherry picking the good facts only, would you?
How does that chart change anything?

As explained to you over and over again, the changes in the work force participation rate are directly attributable to Baby Boomers retiring from the work force and at this stage of the recovery that isn't a bad thing. But it would be a bad thing if and when the economy approaches full employment because there wouldn't be enough workers to meet the demand for labor.

The "most recent" wage number you cited was a monthly overall wage increase. That isn't an annualized number. You cited a monthly number. A three cent wage increase in a month isn't the end of the world BillyT nor is it even significant. On an annual basis wages increased 2%. So who is cherry picking BillyT?

"In February, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
rose by 3 cents to $24.78. Over the year, average hourly earnings have risen by 2.0
percent. In February, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and
nonsupervisory employees were unchanged at $20.80. (See tables B-3 and B-8.) "

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

That average annual wage cited by the BLS equates to an average annual wage of about $51,000. That isn't poverty BillyT. And if you read the BLS report, you will notice virtually all non-farm groups added jobs with the exception of mining. So your focus only on Mac Jobs (restaurant industry) and excluding all other groups is indeed cherry picking. Yeah, jobs in the restaurant industry increased (i.e. Mac Jobs), but the number of jobs increased across the board with the exception of mining. Overall, unemployment is falling. It is now 5.5% and falling.
 
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Given the problems caused by burning oil trains, would you support an additional pipeline?
I support ceasing to burn that valuable and non-renewable chemical feed stock ASAP. - Burning it is stealing from future generations, now that there are renewable alternatives fuels. And a primary, if not the main driver of global warming.

Leaving an unpayable debt burden on them so this generation can enjoy more "goodies now" without fully paying for them is also abusive.
 
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I support ceasing to burn that valuable and non-renewable chemical feed stock ASAP. - Burning it is stealing from future generations, now that there are renewable alternatives fuels. And a primary, if not the main driver of global warming.

Everything with you is stealing from future generations BillyT. Tough, I share your concerns of climate change and pollution. There should be a global carbon tax.
Leaving an unpayable debt burden on them so this generation can enjoy more "goodies now" without fully paying for them is also abusive.

Just what is an "un-payable debt burden" BillyT? As discussed with you in the past, the current public debt service is 2.4% of GDP and tax rates are pretty close to century low, down from 94% to 39%. And federal tax receipts account for less than 17% of GDP. That isn't by any stretch "un-payable".
 
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http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/research-and-analysis/blogs/stateline/2015/3/19/the-shrinking-middle-class-mapped-state-by-state said:
The middle class shrunk in all 50 states between 2000 and 2013, and median income, adjusted for inflation, was lower at the end of 2013 in the vast majority of states than it was in 2000, according to a new study by the Pew Charitable Trust’s Stateline. The analysis, conducted by Stateline’s Tim Henderson, defines “middle class” as individuals earning between 67 percent and 200 percent of the state’s median income.
Map will not copy here, but you can click on any state of interest on map here:
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/researc...-shrinking-middle-class-mapped-state-by-state
To get numerical data.
... Just what is an "un-payable debt burden" BillyT? ...
One that on a per capital basis in real (inflation adjusted) terms is growing larger every year.

Data below from: http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock but need to select USA and then data appears.
for 2014:
$13,340,956,557,377 Total public debt
$42,133.01 per person
317,339,617 population
81.9% percent of GDP
12.2% annual increase.
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For 2013:
$11,895,018,032,787 Total public debt
$37,789.91 per person
314,846,448 population
75.5% percent of GDP
13.8% annual increase.

Note population increased by 0.792% but debt increased by 1.122% or debt increased 1.42 times faster than population did.
If you prefer, to compare the debt to GDP's change, that is even worse as it increase by 8.5% (81.9 / 75.5).

Yes, with historically low interest rate (ending this year) the cost of carrying the debt is near an all time low as percent of GDP. How long do you think these exceptionally low interest rates will continue?
 
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[Map will not copy here, but you can click on any state of interest on map here:
http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/researc...-shrinking-middle-class-mapped-state-by-state
To get numerical data.
One that on a per capital basis in real (inflation adjusted) terms is growing larger every year.

Yes, income inequality is a problem. And yes, fiscal policy needs to shift from favoring the Koch's of this country to favoring the millions of average Joes and Janes. Democrats have walked the talk (e.g. Obamacare). Now it's time for Republicans to walk the talk - long past time.

[Data below from: http://www.economist.com/content/global_debt_clock but need to select USA and then data appears.
for 2014:
$13,340,956,557,377 Total public debt
$42,133.01 per person
317,339,617 population
81.9% percent of GDP
12.2% annual increase.
--------------------
For 2013:
$11,895,018,032,787 Total public debt
$37,789.91 per person
314,846,448 population
75.5% percent of GDP
13.8% annual increase.

Note population increased by 0.792% but debt increased by 1.122% or debt increased 1.42 times faster than population did.
If you prefer, to compare the debt to GDP's change, that is even worse as it increase by 8.5% (81.9 / 75.5).

Yes, with historically low interest rate (ending this year) the cost of carrying the debt is near an all time low as percent of GDP. How long do you think these exceptionally low interest rates will continue?

As previously explained, that really isn't the appropriate metric. If all it takes is for everyone to get out their checkbook and right a check for their share of the debt, no problem. I'll whip out my checkbook right now and do it. Thirty seven or eight thousand dollars per person isn't that much. And if you take out the debt held by the Federal Reserve, that per capita debt goes down to thirty three thousand dollars per person. As has been pointed out to you many times, our debt levels in the past have been much higher. Our current debt isn't the problem you think it is.

A 2.4% debt service isn't by any stretch "un-payable" as you have asserted. As repeatedly pointed out to you the appropriate measure is debt service as a percent of GDP, not debt per capita. Debt is not paid back based on a per capita basis. It's paid out of income (i.e. GDP). I can very easily whip out a checkbook and pay my share of the per capita debt. But many Americans would be hard pressed to do so. That's why we tax people based on income and not on the number of people in their family and their prorated share of our expenses.

Interest rates are low. And no one who is credible is forecasting high interest rates at anytime in the future which would cause the debt to become un-payable. Additionally, higher interest rates would only affect new debts, not old debts. The interest rate paid by the federal government on the 11 trillion or so of existing debt is locked in for the term of that debt and would not be affected by interest rate increases down the road. Our government has the ability to pay its debts. That is the unpleasant bottom line for you BillyT. Our government debt is very payable. We just need a responsible government in Washington to do it. We don't need anymore Baby Bushs or profligate crony capitalism he and his fellow Republicans brought to Washington.
 
ECRI: So what did the global economy get for $11,000,000,000,000 in QE?

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Bernanke 1:21
"Naked I came into Public Serve from my State's womb, and naked shall I return there. The Central Bank giveth, and the Central Bank taketh away; Blessed be the name of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York!"

Isn't it wonderful living in a centralized planned 'economy' where the State's 'schools' pump functional illiterates out by the 10s of million each and every year, spends trillions on phony wars it makes up and loses anyway, where you're so 'free' you can be put in a State rape cage doing anything from smoking a weed that grew in your yard, to failing to obtain a State licence to cut hair or arrange flowers (for the Good of Society - you know, to keep us sage from another).

Breath it in boys, that's the smell of the Great Recovery from the Great Recession which itself was predicated on the Great Bailout. Don't worry, we have many more decades of normalization to go - unLimited State, the largest in human history, what American dreams are made of.
 
ECRI: So what did the global economy get for $11,000,000,000,000 in QE?

150130_Twitter_W495.gif


150220_USGDP_web_W495.gif


Bernanke 1:21
"Naked I came into Public Serve from my State's womb, and naked shall I return there. The Central Bank giveth, and the Central Bank taketh away; Blessed be the name of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York!"

Isn't it wonderful living in a centralized planned 'economy' where the State's 'schools' pump functional illiterates out by the 10s of million each and every year, spends trillions on phony wars it makes up and loses anyway, where you're so 'free' you can be put in a State rape cage doing anything from smoking a weed that grew in your yard, to failing to obtain a State licence to cut hair or arrange flowers (for the Good of Society - you know, to keep us sage from another).

Breath it in boys, that's the smell of the Great Recovery from the Great Recession which itself was predicated on the Great Bailout. Don't worry, we have many more decades of normalization to go - unLimited State, the largest in human history, what American dreams are made of.
How about surprising me Michael and make an honest post every once in a while. :)
 
... Interest rates are low. And no one who is credible is forecasting high interest rates at anytime in the future which would cause the debt to become un-payable. ...
As that is your POV, tell me the rate for the 30 year bond you expect to be on 1 July 2016. I.e. "It will be ____ % or less."
 
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