The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

[joepistole]

As that is your POV, tell me the rate for the 30 year bond you expect to be on 1 July 2016. I.e. "It will be ____ % or less."

Unlike some people BillyT I don't make silly predictions. Because I understand there are many factors which could affect interest rates between now and then. But that said, I don't expect dramatic or significant changes in US interest rates unless something dramatic or significant changes between now an then. If Republicans threaten another debt default in October or November of this year as they have attempted on several occasions in the past or actually cause a debt default, then that is a game changer. We could see double digit interest rates in that event.

The Fed is expected to raise interest rates sometime in the second half of this year. I don't know when the Fed will raise interest rates. The Fed doesn't know when it will raise interest rates. But if the Fed raises interest rates this year, I don't expect that increase to be significant given current economic conditions. The Fed doesn't expect to make significant rate increases if they decide to make an interest rate increase.

I don't have a crystal ball BillyT and I don't have ESP and I don't know anyone who does. Like the Fed BillyT my assessments are data dependent. If the data changes, my assessment changes too.

 

[Billy T]

" S Korea to join China-led development bank - Latest US ally to defy Washington’s opposition to what some see as a rival to the World Bank " quote from the FT of London with bold added by Billy T.

The decision by several US allies to sign up to an institution Washington had effectively said was off-limits is one of the most powerful symbols to date of the eastward shift of global power. ...

As such, the UK’s decision to break ranks was heavily criticised by the US. It also rankled in Berlin and Paris, where it was taken as an example of the UK’s willingness to forego long-term strategic thinking and solidarity with close allies in the pursuit of short-term commercial advantage.

 

[Kittamaru]

Seems more like the US is just mad that we can't dictate other countries policies anymore...

 

[Billy T]

The divergence between job growth and retail sales growth is startling. Is the US economy tanking right now?

Despite experiencing a healthy pace of job growth, the US economy has largely disappointed economists' expectations by delivering a series of weaker-than-expected economic reports. The unexpected plunges in retail sales and durable goods orders stand out as they reflect weakness in both consumers and businesses.

It's particularly concerning considering all of the extra spending money Americans supposedly have thanks to falling gas prices.

 

[Michael]

Americans Spent All Their "Gas Savings" On Obamacare

The entire uptick in GDP was Amooriacans paying more for Healthcare.

Oh and in another sign that the US economy has 'turned the corner', we're finally seeing some of that wonderful inflation the Federal Reserve Central Planning Bank of New York says is so great for the economy.

A 100% increase in ground beef YOY.

Kind of makes you hungry for a $20 pink-slime burger doesn't it?
I bet you're thinking to yourself, with prices rocketing up 100% across the year, I better get out there and spend spend spend like there's no tomorrow - you know, while the 'good deals' are for the taking.

Isn't central planning awesome?

And so starts another year of the "Great Recovery", where our Political hacks.... errr "Leaders"/Regulators get to spend 600 billion tossing cannon fodder at 'Terrorists' while losing the phony wars another year, 100 billion paying for DoED certified functional illiterates and as a special added bonus we get to watch as the hyper-regulatory-captured healthcare industry kills off another half million Amoorikans in medical error related rent-seeking.

Good ole USSA.
Enjoy the Centrally Planned recovery.

 

[joepistole]

Americans Spent All Their "Gas Savings" On Obamacare
The entire uptick in GDP was Amooriacans paying more for Healthcare.

LOL, well Michael, you haven’t changed. This is more of the same from you, more specious sources and false information and false attributions. You are a sucker for misinformation Michael. Below is the real data from the real BEA.
“Widespread Growth Across Industries Continues in Third Quarter 2014
Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, reflecting positive contributions from 20 of 22 industry groups. The private goods- and services-producing industries, as well as the government sector, contributed to the increase. Finance and insurance; mining; and real estate and rental and leasing were the leading contributors to the increase. “ - BEA

Oh and in another sign that the US economy has 'turned the corner', we're finally seeing some of that wonderful inflation the Federal Reserve Central Planning Bank of New York says is so great for the economy.

Below is a link to the real numbers. By the way, the BEA is part of the Commerce Department. When this data is published, it isn’t published under the name Commerce Department. It’s published under the BEA name. That should be a clue that your data is specious. Further, it is the BLS which gathers, calculates and publishes this data not the BEA…oops again.
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cesan.htm

A 100% increase in ground beef YOY.
Kind of makes you hungry for a $20 pink-slime burger doesn't it?
I bet you're thinking to yourself, with prices rocketing up 100% across the year, I better get out there and spend spend spend like there's no tomorrow - you know, while the 'good deals' are for the taking.
Isn't central planning awesome?
And so starts another year of the "Great Recovery", where our Political hacks.... errr "Leaders"/Regulators get to spend 600 billion tossing cannon fodder at 'Terrorists' while losing the phony wars another year, 100 billion paying for DoED certified functional illiterates and as a special added bonus we get to watch as the hyper-regulatory-captured healthcare industry kills off another half million Amoorikans in medical error related rent-seeking.
Good ole USSA.
Enjoy the Centrally Planned recovery.

I don’t know where you get your beef, probably the same place you get your “data”, but the price I pay for ground beef hasn’t doubled – not even close. And has been repeatedly explained to you, the US economy isn’t centrally planned – again not even close. The irony here Michael is that you are one of those “Amoorikans” you like to write and complain about. And as for US education, when compared to other developed countries, the US ranks in the middle of the pack and that hasn’t changed since those comparisons began back in the mid 60’s. But the US has gone on during that time to revolutionize technology. New companies like Microsoft, Apple, and the biotech industry were created and have thrived and continue to thrive. “Amoorikans” have become a hotbed of innovation and commerce. The US educational system is decentralized and that is a good thing. It’s more adaptable. It allows for more innovation, and that is a good thing Michael. The data suggests it's more important to be able to use information that it is to just recite rote memories. Math and science tests are mostly a test of rote memory.

You know Michael, if you were just honest, you wouldn't have to invent numbers and redefine the English dictionary to make sense of your ideology.

 

[Michael]

And as for US education, when compared to other developed countries, the US ranks in the middle of the pack and that hasn’t changed since those comparisons began back in the mid 60’s. But the US has gone on during that time to revolutionize technology. New companies like Microsoft, Apple, and the biotech industry were created and have thrived and continue to thrive. “Amoorikans” have become a hotbed of innovation and commerce.

Our leadership keeps thinking that the answer to economic growth and ultimately job creation is more innovation, and we continue to invest billions in it. But an innovation is worthless until an entrepreneur creates a business model for it and turns that innovative idea in something customers will buy. Yet current thinking tells us we’re on the right track and don’t need different strategies, so we continue marching down the path of national decline, believing innovation will save us. I don’t want to sound like a doomsayer, but when small and medium-sized businesses are dying faster than they’re being born, so is free enterprise. And when free enterprise dies, America dies with it.

America died decades ago. Amoorika on the other hand, lives on. Were Steve Jobs or Bill Gates born today, they'd be lucky to make it back and forth to their hyper-regulated service sector job as Greeter without being strangled or shot by the Police (for the good of society) to make rent to their Generation Baby Slum Lord. Yeah, let's see how that works out.

But hey, there is one business that's booming, the military industrial complex. While we can't afford personal freedom and civil liberty, we sure as hell have more than enough money for fascism. In 2015, we'll spend another 600 billion in backdoor kickbacks to "Corporations" / friends of the State. Paying to toss functionally illiterate State-bot cannon fodder at other functionally illiterate Theo-bot cannon fodder for another year. You know, for the Good of Society because we use the roads.

At least the DoED is serving some function, that's always good to know.

Welcome to Amoorika
Land of the Fleeced
Home of the Slave

 

[Billy T]

Only if "middle class" is defined by central bracket dollar income has it not been declining in wealth, etc. - according to new St. Louis Federal Reserve study.
They say: "The-middle-class-may-be-under-more-pressure-than-you-think"

To avoid the ambiguity and temporal instability associated with an income- or wealth-based definition of the middle class, we focus on three persistent characteristics of every family head—his or her date of birth (hence, age at a given time), highest educational attainment, and race or ethnicity.
We think of a middle-class family as one whose demographic characteristics suggest it is unlikely to be persistently rich or poor.

Based on our earlier work with the SCF, the demographic characteristics that are most likely to be associated with a poor family (either in terms of income or wealth or both) include being young, having less than a high school education, and being a member of a historically disadvantaged minority, either African-American or Hispanic of any race. At the other extreme, the characteristics most likely to be associated with earning a high income or possessing a great deal of wealth in most years include being middle-aged or older, having a college degree and being white or Asian.

Therefore, we define three groups of families headed by someone 40 or older as follows:
•Thrivers (33 percent of families 40 or older in the 2013 SCF): Families likely to have income and wealth significantly above average in most years; these families are headed by someone at least 40 years old with a two- or four-year college degree who is non-Hispanic white or Asian;
•Middle class (44 percent of families 40 or older in the 2013 SCF): Families likely to have income and wealth near average in most years; these families are headed by someone at least 40 years old who is white or Asian with exactly a high school diploma or black or Hispanic with a two- or four-year college degree; and
•Stragglers (23 percent of families 40 or older in the 2013 SCF): Families likely to have income and wealth significantly below average in most years; these families are headed by someone at least 40 years old with no high school diploma of any race or ethnicity and black or Hispanic families with at most a high school diploma.

Due to the recent rapid concentration of wealth in the top "1% ers" even the median wealth of the "thrivers" has been in decline since 2007! This is NOT stable.

 

[joepistole]

America died decades ago. Amoorika on the other hand, lives on. Were Steve Jobs or Bill Gates born today, they'd be lucky to make it back and forth to their hyper-regulated service sector job as Greeter without being strangled or shot by the Police (for the good of society) to make rent to their Generation Baby Slum Lord. Yeah, let's see how that works out.

But hey, there is one business that's booming, the military industrial complex. While we can't afford personal freedom and civil liberty, we sure as hell have more than enough money for fascism. In 2015, we'll spend another 600 billion in backdoor kickbacks to "Corporations" / friends of the State. Paying to toss functionally illiterate State-bot cannon fodder at other functionally illiterate Theo-bot cannon fodder for another year. You know, for the Good of Society because we use the roads.

At least the DoED is serving some function, that's always good to know.

Welcome to Amoorika
Land of the Fleeced
Home of the Slave

Well, here is one of your problems Michael, you have NO evidence that regulation or your alleged "increasing regulation" is responsible for declining startups. Two, you are ignoring consolidation, and it's not like that hasn't been pointed out to you before. One of the reasons for declining startups and increasing consolidation of existing businesses is the increasing wealth inequality problem vexing the US. The US needs to change the way wealth is distributed. And to do that, we need changes in our political system. Ironically, the guys funding your ideology are responsible for that wealth inequality problem. And your solution, giving your masters carte blanche, doesn't solve the problem. It just makes the wealth inequality problem even worse.

 

[Billy T]

Second graph shows where it went. Note Social Security and Medical care make growing steady rise and less than half of Baby Boomers have retired.

 

[joepistole]

Second graph shows where it went. Note Social Security and Medical care make growing steady rise and less than half of Baby Boomers have retired.

Except as has been pointed out to your numerous times over the years, your national debt numbers are highly inflated because they include trillions of dollars the US government owes to itself. When you take out the "debt" owed by the government to itself, the real number is around 11 trillion dollar which is a fraction of the US GDP. Which brings me to the other issue you have repeatedly failed to recognize. The US debt number without some context is irrelevant. When you compare US debt to income (i.e. GDP), then the number isn't as high as it was during WWII - not even close. And that brings be to the next point, the debt dollars your chart cites haven't been adjusted for inflation.

So the bottom line BillyT, your numbers deceptive. But hey, if you were honest, you wouldn't have a case - nice demagoguery.

 

[Billy T]

Except as has been pointed out to your numerous times over the years, your national debt numbers are highly inflated because they include trillions of dollars the US government owes to itself. When you take out the "debt" owed by the government to itself, the real number is around 11 trillion dollar which is a fraction of the US GDP. Which brings me to the other issue you have repeatedly failed to recognize. The US debt number without some context is irrelevant. When you compare US debt to income (i.e. GDP), then the number isn't as high as it was during WWII - not even close. And that brings be to the next point, the debt dollars your chart cites haven't been adjusted for inflation.

So the bottom line BillyT, your numbers deceptive. But hey, if you were honest, you wouldn't have a case - nice demagoguery.

Yes, The federal government owes the Social Security Trust Fund (and others) large part of the 18 trillion debt. Just how do you think they can not pay it "take out the "debt" owed by the government to itself " ? I and a rapidly growing number of others, who no longer pay the SS tax, expect the monthly checks not to "bounce."

Also it is not just the US that is living beyond its means with currency printing presses:

Worldwide debt has exploded in the eight years since the beginning of the fiscal crisis from an already unsustainable level of $142 trillion to a crushing $200 trillion. The reason? To help paper over gaping holes in national economies, and because our financial system makes it too easy to just "create" money from nothing.

 

[joepistole]

Yes, The federal government owes the Social Security Trust Fund (and others) large part of the 18 trillion debt. Just how do you think they can not pay it "take out the "debt" owed by the government to itself " ?

If I said I borrowed a trillion dollars from myself, would I then be a trillion dollars in debt? The same thing applies to debt numbers you referenced. That debt the government owes to itself mostly reflects the value of the tax cuts given to the uber wealthy over the course of the last 30 some years at the expense of middle class Americans who paid excess Social Security taxes during that time to fund those tax cuts for the uber wealthy. The government can pay for it by making the healthcare system more efficient and effective as Obamacare has done. The Congressional Budget Office has already lowered its Medicare cost projections twice as the result of Obamacare. It can raise tax rates back to Reagan era tax rates and in doing so replenish the Social Security and Medicare Trust Fund. It can make all income equally subject to Social Security taxes making it a fairer tax, or it could lower or eliminate Social Security and Medicare benefits. The bottom line is, it isn't debt and the government has many options available.

 

[Billy T]

If I said I borrowed a trillion dollars from myself, would I then be a trillion dollars in debt? ...

Yes, if like Social Security etc. you must pay that trillion out to other Americans.

 

[joepistole]

Yes, if like Social Security etc. you must pay that trillion out to other Americans.

Except as repeatedly pointed out to you, Social Security doesn't have to pay out a trillion dollars. That's why it isn't debt. Social Security isn't a bank. Over the course of my lifetime I have paid hundreds of thousands in Social Security and Medicare taxes and I have absolutely zero ownership interest in those tax payments. The government to whom I paid those taxes owes me absolutely nothing for those tax payments. That's why Social Security and Medicare taxes are called taxes rather than investments or loans.

Medicare and Social Security are social programs which can be terminated or changed at any time at the whim of congress. That's why it isn't debt. And you are completely ignoring the US government debt held by the Federal Reserve which will likely be held to maturity. And contrary to conspiracy nuts, the Federal Reserve is a government entity.

 

[Billy T]

Except as repeatedly pointed out to you, Social Security doesn't have to pay out a trillion dollars. That's why it isn't debt. Social Security isn't a bank. It it's a social program which can be terminated or changed at any time at the whim of congress. That's why it isn't debt. And you are completely ignoring the US government debt held by the Federal Reserve which will likely be held to maturity. And contrary to conspiracy nuts, the Federal Reserve is a government entity.

Same argument could also be falsely applied to trillion dollars of bonds now traded in the bond market. Yes governments can conceptually cancel promises made but there are enormous cost to do so. What do you think would happen if the government told people nearing retirement that the changing demographics (many more collecting SS than paying the SS tax,) made it necessary to reduce significantly "Your Social Security benefits" which if you like the government will compute for you - I had them do that for me about 10 years before I decided to retire early at age 55. SS benefits are not the same contractual promise as a treasury bond, but most voters regard them as such.

Yes, I expect and the fed has admitted that "hold to maturity" is their plan. - The only way they can get back the principle when interest rate return to even 50% of their long term averages. Selling the fed's Treasury bonds now at a loss, what the market would pay, would reduce the burden on the government of later paying full face value, but Fed does not want to "eat a loss" and doing so might weaken trust in the dollar, etc.

 

[joepistole]

Same argument could also be falsely applied to trillion dollars of bonds now traded in the bond market. Yes governments can conceptually cancel promises made but there are enormous cost to do so. What do you think would happen if the government told people nearing retirement that the changing demographics (many more collecting SS than paying the SS tax,) made it necessary to reduce significantly "Your Social Security benefits" which if you like the government will compute for you - I had them do that for me about 10 years before I decided to retire early at age 55.

Federal bonds are not social programs as are Medicare and Social Security. There are no promises of future benefits with Medicare and Social Security. If what you are claiming were true, then in order to be consistent we would need to add future military spending as debt, future welfare spending as debt. We would have to list every future government expenditure and list it as debt in order to be consistent. And that of course is absurd. It radically changes the definition of debt to the point where the word becomes completely meaningless.

The political difficulty involved in changing or reducing program benefits doesn't change the fact that Medicare and Social Security are not fixed benefit programs and that beneficiaries of those programs have no ownership interest in those programs as bondholders do with the bonds they purchase. When I paid my Social Security and Medicare taxes I didn't receive a promise of fixed future benefits as bondholders do, because I have no ownership interest in my Social Security and Medicare tax payments as bondholders do. In short, I received no promise from the government in exchange for my tax payments. Social Security and Medicare tax payments are not investments, they are taxes. There is a difference between tax payments and investments. There is a big difference between a tax payment and an investment BillyT.

Yes, I expect and the fed has admitted that "hold to maturity" is their plan. - The only way they can get back the principle when interest rate return to even 50% of their long term averages. Selling the fed's Treasury bonds now at a loss, what the market would pay, would reduce the burned on the government of later paying full face value, but Fed does not want to "eat a loss" and doing so might weaken trust in the dollar, etc.

Well, the Fed hasn't said they will hold the US Treasuries on their books to maturity. But pending problems with inflation, I don't see the Fed selling those Treasuries, and, ceteris paribus, I don't see inflation as a problem. And as for the rest, you are not making sense. This gets back to your inability or unwillingness to understand what the Federal Reserve is and what it does. You have been repeatedly told over the years, the Fed is charged with larger issues of monetary and economic stability. The Fed's profit lies in the economic wellbeing of the nation. And as any investor knows, not every investment will be a profitable one. I am a professional investor, and unfortunately not every trade I make is profitable. It's called investing BillyT. I don't know any professional investors who have not made a bad investment...even Mr. Buffet, the Oracle of Omaha. What is stupid is not buying when appropriate and not selling when appropriate. And the fact is the Federal Reserve has earned the US Treasury a 100 billion dollars for each of the last several years. It turns out doing the right thing for the nation these last few years has been tremendously profitable for the Fed. Your obsession with a potential loss for the Federal Reserve is penny wise and pound foolish.

And none of that changes the fact that the debt numbers you like to cite are highly overstated.

 

[Billy T]

http://pro.oxfordclub.com/OPEC3RD49BRKCAPESDBNIUPS4/WORER414/?h=true
this link is text of long video - Overstating POV I have expressed for years -namely that day is coming when it is to China's and Saudi Arabia to make the PetroYuan.

Here is a little bit of the text from above link:

"It like 1973 all over again. Except this time, instead of dealing with Kissinger and Nixon, the Saudis are plotting out the future of global economics with their new pals in East Asia. Indeed, Chinese officials have already reportedly been holding secret meetings with Saudi Arabia.* All the indications are that Saudi Arabia, along with China, will soon launch the petrodollar-crushing “oil weapon” ... One that undoes the U.S. dollar’s monopoly on all oil trade. ... First, understand that a new guard is coming in Saudi Arabia and that’s King Salman.. Who doesn’t have ties to the U.S. like the late King Abdullah, who died in January. He’s a man who transformed Riyadh from a desert wasteland into a sprawling city in his years in his years as governor. "

Recall the petrodollar was born when US was both the biggest buyer of Saudi oil and the biggest supplier of their weapon systems. Now China has both those roles. US refuses to sell the Saudis weapons that can threaten Israel, like this solid fuel, mobile IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile)

Chinese made DF-21 intermediate-range, mobile, missile first sold to Saudi in 2007. Covers all of Iran / or Israel and as easy to hid and can erect and fire in about 3 minutes, the Israeli air force can't pre-emptively take it out. Why US would not sell its version of same. This is unit 20 - note the red Chinese star near the 20.

* not so secrete meeting here is photo from early China / Saudi talks about new oil system:

Chinese premier Li Keqiang, right, shakes hands with Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz at Ziguangge** Pavilion in the Zhongnanhai leaders’ compound in Beijing on March14,2014
There are photos of their oil ministers meeting too, but it is my bed time and will not try to find them now.

** Salman is no longer "Crown Prince" - He is the King of Saudi Arabia, and friend of China; and if I may put it bluntly, very pissed off at US where shale oil production has cut his oil profits about 75% from their peak.

 

[Billy T]

quote=http://www.pewtrusts.org/en/researc...inking-middle-class-mapped-state-by-state]The struggles of middle-class American families and growing income inequality have risen to the top of the national agenda. A new Stateline analysis shows that in all 50 states, the percentage of “middle-class” households—those making between 67 percent and 200 percent of the state’s median income—shrunk between 2000 and 2013. The change occurred even as the median income in most states declined, when adjusted for inflation. In most states, the growing percentage of households paying 30 percent (the federal standard for housing affordability) or more of their income on housing illustrates that it is increasingly difficult for many American families to make ends meet. [/quote] See map of states at link and hover cursor over any state for details.
For example, Maryland where I lived for about 40 years has only 48.2% in middle class in 2003, but 51.6% in 2000. How bad has middle class of your state been hit?
That is a 6.7% decrease in three years! Much of this due to "good job evaporation" in Baltimore.
See Fraggle's post here: http://www.sciforums.com/threads/so...baltimore-tonight.145828/page-17#post-3305186
and my extension of it in next post 335.

 

[joepistole]

http://pro.oxfordclub.com/OPEC3RD49BRKCAPESDBNIUPS4/WORER414/?h=true
this link is text of long video - Overstating POV I have expressed for years -namely that day is coming when it is to China's and Saudi Arabia to make the PetroYuan.

Here is a little bit of the text from above link:

"It like 1973 all over again. Except this time, instead of dealing with Kissinger and Nixon, the Saudis are plotting out the future of global economics with their new pals in East Asia. Indeed, Chinese officials have already reportedly been holding secret meetings with Saudi Arabia.* All the indications are that Saudi Arabia, along with China, will soon launch the petrodollar-crushing “oil weapon” ... One that undoes the U.S. dollar’s monopoly on all oil trade. ... First, understand that a new guard is coming in Saudi Arabia and that’s King Salman.. Who doesn’t have ties to the U.S. like the late King Abdullah, who died in January. He’s a man who transformed Riyadh from a desert wasteland into a sprawling city in his years in his years as governor. "

Recall the petrodollar was born when US was both the biggest buyer of Saudi oil and the biggest supplier of their weapon systems. Now China has both those roles. US refuses to sell the Saudis weapons that can threaten Israel, like this solid fuel, mobile IRBM (Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile)

Chinese made DF-21 intermediate-range, mobile, missile first sold to Saudi in 2007. Covers all of Iran / or Israel and as easy to hid and can erect and fire in about 3 minutes, the Israeli air force can't pre-emptively take it out. Why US would not sell its version of same. This is unit 20 - note the red Chinese star near the 20.

* not so secrete meeting here is photo from early China / Saudi talks about new oil system:

Chinese premier Li Keqiang, right, shakes hands with Saudi Crown Prince Salman Bin Abdulaziz at Ziguangge** Pavilion in the Zhongnanhai leaders’ compound in Beijing on March14,2014
There are photos of their oil ministers meeting too, but it is my bed time and will not try to find them now.

** Salman is no longer "Crown Prince" - He is the King of Saudi Arabia, and friend of China; and if I may put it bluntly, very pissed off at US where shale oil production has cut his oil profits about 75% from their peak.

LOL, well at least the Chinese are not holding kissing and holding hands like they did with Baby Bush. I see you are back to your specious sources again Billy T. The founder of the "Oxford Club" is also the founder of Agora, Inc. a company which has been sued by subscribers, and state and federal regulators for publishing false and misleading information. At least you are consistent Billy T.

"In Ginsburg v. Agora, Inc., 915 F. Supp. 733 (1995),[11] Agora defended itself against a civil suit claiming violations of state and federal securities laws.[11] The court dismissed the complaint, holding that Agora, as the publisher of a subscription investment newsletter, was protected by the First Amendment against liability for factual misstatements.[11]
In Lubin v. Agora, Inc., 882 A.2d 833 (2005),[12] pursuant to an investigation into potential violations of Maryland securities laws, the Maryland Securities Commissioner served two subpoenas duces tecum on Agora.[12] Following Agora’s refusal to produce its subscriber lists, marketing lists, and other documents containing information identifying any of its subscribers, the Commissioner filed a motion to compel enforcement.[12] The trial court ruled in favor of Agora and denied the motion, concluding that the Commissioner had failed to demonstrate a compelling need for the subscriber lists as required by the First Amendment, and that the demand for subscriber lists was overbroad.[12] The Maryland Securities Commissioner appealed this decision, but the appeals court ruled in favor of Agora.[12] In its opinion, the state of Maryland unanimously ruled the First Amendment prevents the Commissioner from compelling the discovery of the identities of Agora’s subscribers.[12]
In "SEC v. Agora, Inc., Pirate Investor, and Frank Porter Stansberry", (SEC v. Agora complaint, 2003), the SEC alleged Agora companies wrongly profited from selling false information marketed as insider tips. In US SEC v. Pirate Investor LLC, 580 F.3d 233, 255 (4th Cir. 2009) the US Court of Appeal, against the arguments from publishing industry interveners, found fraud by the Agora company, and confirmed that punishing fraud, whether common law fraud or securities fraud, does not violate the First Amendment."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agora,_Inc.

I keep telling you Billy T you need to vet your sources. This is a problem too many naïve people fall into. There is a ton of this kind of shit out there and the money isn't in following their advice but in selling this crap. It's unfortunate, but a lot of people lose a lot of money following this kind stuff, hence the law suits.