... Now let’s look at your record of prediction. For years now and contrary to mainstream economists you have been predicting the collapse of the dollar. In fact you predicted the demise of the dollar on October 31, 2014 with a one month margin of error and you doubled down on that prediction just a few months ago. ...
actually you are mixing two of my predictions. The "collapse of the dollar" (no longer the world's reserve currency or the Petrodollar yields to the Petroyuan and or gold) did not have a specified date - I said China could collapse the dollar any time it wanted to but that was not yet in China's long term economic advantage yet. I told the three things China needed to do before it would be. The main benefit of course being that then, with the RMB as the preferred currency (as backed by gold and paying higher interest than US could afford) China could pay for it pay for its imports with printed paper as US has done to large extent for at least three decades. About the "run on the dollar" prediction I have this to say:
Billy T was WRONG and Foolish, but was he also unknowingly right?
As Joe and many others know 8 years ago I violated the fundamental rule of prognostication. I. e. I told both what and when there would be a run on the dollar, followed in less than a year by the world's worst ever and longest lasting depression. (Except for China and the suppliers of essential items it must import.) I gave myself a + or – month “margin of error." We are now exactly two weeks after the 30 November 2014, end of that “window.”
Clearly there has been no run on the dollar of the nature I was forecasting. Economic trouble in Europe and Japan plus increasing political instabilities in several places, even the resurrection of the “cold war,” have made a flood of currencies into the dollar, not out of it; but technically that is also a “run on the dollar.” So except for implicitly getting direction of the fund flows, I was right.
testing to see if this copies. It shows that tying you your money up for 3 years earns 1%, for 10 years, earns 2% and for 30 years only 2.75%
These are at most 50% of what one got pre-2008 crash because most of the world thinks the USA is the least dirty shirt in the bond laundry basket. This despite the house's just passed 1.1 Trillion dollar increase in the debt during next 12 months. We need to wait 12 months more, to see if I was also wrong on predictions of the worst ever depression follows after the run of funds into the dollar.
Merry Christmas. If me being wrong about the direction of the run on the dollar, doesn't do that for you, perhaps this will:
She has gone global. China Daily's front page today! at:
http://video.chinadaily.com.cn/2014/1212/4686.shtml As they say: "Real talent will propel you to the top." (26 million views in a few days!)
PS I misstatenly above said: "RMB backed by gold." First time, I have not been careful to say "RMB
bonds backed by gold." I have several posts telling that they would be only for the IMF and central banks and even they could only asked for the gold backing once or twice per year via irrevocable request made at least a month before gold at the then current price in RMB would be delivered. China does not want to create a convenient, interest paying, way to speculate on the price of gold.
I think for the "foreseeable future" the CCP wants to have control over the currency - the yuan.
