I don't expect any technology to indefinitely extend our oil supplies. The one good thing about fracking is that availability is driven by price - more becomes available at $100 a barrel, still more at $120 a barrel, even more at $200 a barrel. This allows prices to rise until alternatives are cheaper, at which point they will take over. This allows a "soft landing" for our oil dependence; it helps ensure a more rational transition to other forms of energy rather than an economic collapse caused by not having any oil left (and having no alternatives ramped up and ready to go.)Earlier, I heard that fracking might only be able to boost our oil output for a short while longer. That was on NPR. These two factors added together are very concerning for the U.S. and the world economy.
How about $65 or $30 a barrel?I don't expect any technology to indefinitely extend our oil supplies. The one good thing about fracking is that availability is driven by price - more becomes available at $100 a barrel, still more at $120 a barrel, even more at $200 a barrel. This allows prices to rise until alternatives are cheaper, at which point they will take over. This allows a "soft landing" for our oil dependence; it helps ensure a more rational transition to other forms of energy rather than an economic collapse caused by not having any oil left (and having no alternatives ramped up and ready to go.)
How about $65 barrel oil. West Texas Intermediate closed at $66 per barrel last week. Brent crude closed at $67 per barrel. Your no regulation libertarian agenda would worsen our pollution. So I find it odd to hear you complain about pollution.How about $65 or $30 a barrel?
........ how quickly we forget we live in a world with finite (oil) energy that's potentially melting it's polar icecaps under a blanket of CO2 emissions:
Bloomberg: SUV Back in Vogue as Americans Rekindle Old Love Affair
The Economist: Fuelling problems (short memories is an understatement).
(A) One thing about this new site I don't like/hate, is the use of $. It changes the font as well as italicizes the script.How about $65 barrel oil. West Texas Intermediate closed at $66 per barrel last week. Brent crude closed at $67 per barrel. Your no regulation libertarian agenda would worsen our pollution. So I find it odd to hear you complain about pollution.
Yes, THAT'S right. Consumers are really upset the price of the things they buy, like food, electricity, gasoline, healthcare, tuition, electronics, homes - all this stuff, the prices of which aren't going up fast enough. THAT'S the reason why consumers aren't out buying and partying like it's Nineteen Eighty Four. Not enough inflation they were hoping for!!!Interviews with Fed officials and those familiar with its thinking show the mood inside is more somber than the central bank's reassuring statements and evidence of robust economic health would suggest. The reason is the central bank's failure to nudge price growth up to its 2 percent target and, more importantly, signs that investors and consumers are losing faith [inflation] can get there any time soon.
(A) One thing about this new site I don't like/hate, is the use of $. It changes the font as well as italicizes the script.
(B) Oil is HYPER regulated by the State Joe. Everything from making sure it's priced in our Central Government's, Central Banks' FIAT currency (petro-dollars) to the Military Industrial Complex used to maintain that pricing scheme, to massive regulations and etc.... No one knows for sure if what a free society would or would not look like. Maybe we'd be dying in our own filth - OR, and much more likely, we'd be a much more conservative and rational society with limits placed on our use of limited energy like oil. There'd be less 'people' on earth for one (meaning less use) and without government interference there'd probably be a thriving alternative energy sector as we'd be MUCH richer as a people and be able to splurge on things like alternative energy and green energy. Instead all of our 'wealth' is being sucked into a black hole / government that only grows larger sucking in more resources - generational amounts.
Note: The US Government itself consumes more energy than ANY OTHER institutions. Its military squanders unknown millions of barrels a week on useless wars that benefit a small handful of war profiteers. Many of whom either work in, or closely with, the Government.
HAAAA!!! LOL.....
Ever hear of some of those asinine stories from the Progressive Socialists' wet-dream - The Soviet Union. You know: 'They pretend to pay us. We pretend to work'. Or how they'd drive a truck back and forth across some idiotic line because on paper they could record 10 truck loads of produce had passed through such and such inspection.
Check out the rational of our Central Planners (from: Reuters)
Yes, THAT'S right. Consumers are really upset the price of the things they buy, like food, electricity, gasoline, healthcare, tuition, electronics, homes - all this stuff, the prices of which aren't going up fast enough. THAT'S the reason why consumers aren't out buying and partying like it's Nineteen Eighty Four. Not enough inflation they were hoping for!!!
HAHAHAHAHAAAA....... too funny!
THIS is how insane your Central Planners are. Or, at least how STUPID they think their Tax Chattel are (and, to be fair, most are that stupid).
Yes, when an economy is humming along and people are doing a lot of trade with one another, demand can, for a time, outstrip supply. And yes, during that time, as people compete for limited stock - prices go up. This isn't necessarily a sign of a 'strong' economy. It could mean there was drought and produce was lost. BUT, yes, it may mean a lot of people have money in their pockets and want to buy a PS4 or Xbone so suppliers might hike up the price until limited supply catches up. (note: in the USSA, when price is going up, it generally means rent-seeking, regulatory capture and the State are rigging the unfree-markets).
The real reason why our Central Planners want price inflation has nothing at all to do with a 'strong' economy and has everything to do with the 70% increase in national debt that's occurred in the 7 years since Bush II and O-blah-ma started bailing out their backers in the various criminal banking 'institutions' who are robbing the middle class blind. Inflation is how the State plans on paying this down - while hoping to maintain the statuesque in terms of power and control over the Chattel Classes. Inflation is also the State's soft default on all those 13-month Gubermint pension schemes our Public "Servants" promised themselves at Tax Chattel expense. Little did they know - most of them are about to enter the Farm and see how they like life on the outside.
But..... it's not working this time.
Oh well, welcome to the New Economy - and Do Enjoy it, because, it's here to stay. Probably for the rest of most of your lives. Go down and pull the magic Left Right lever a few more times. See how that works out for you.
Want to know how the Supreme Court defines porn? You know it when you see it.Well here is the problem, you cannot define in any meaningful way what "hyper regulation" is, just like you cannot explain in any meaningful terms what size government should be.
The solution is pretty simple. End the tax on laborers. This will reduce the Central Banks ability to sell debt on future generations of unborn Americans to the Chinese et.al. and without an ability to sell off the prosperity of the future - the State will shrink, first by eliminating unneeded 'Officials' and, eventually, the the inept - which will wipe out 99.9999% of those working in Government. Without the money to enforce all these inane regulations, Americans will be free to go about creating a prosperous society through trade again.Consider the Dodd-Frank law of 2010. Its aim was noble: to prevent another financial crisis. Its strategy was sensible, too: improve transparency, stop banks from taking excessive risks, prevent abusive financial practices and end “too big to fail” by authorising regulators to seize any big, tottering financial firm and wind it down. This newspaper supported these goals at the time, and we still do. But Dodd-Frank is far too complex, and becoming more so. At 848 pages, it is 23 times longer than Glass-Steagall, the reform that followed the Wall Street crash of 1929. Worse, every other page demands that regulators fill in further detail. Some of these clarifications are hundreds of pages long. Just one bit, the “Volcker rule”, which aims to curb risky proprietary trading by banks, includes 383 questions that break down into 1,420 subquestions.
Hardly anyone has actually read Dodd-Frank, besides the Chinese government and our correspondent in New York (see article). Those who have struggle to make sense of it, not least because so much detail has yet to be filled in: of the 400 rules it mandates, only 93 have been finalised. So financial firms in America must prepare to comply with a law that is partly unintelligible and partly unknowable.
Flaming water-skis
Dodd-Frank is part of a wider trend. Governments of both parties keep adding stacks of rules, few of which are ever rescinded. Republicans write rules to thwart terrorists, which make flying in America an ordeal and prompt legions of brainy migrants to move to Canada instead. Democrats write rules to expand the welfare state. Barack Obama's health-care reform of 2010 had many virtues, especially its attempt to make health insurance universal. But it does little to reduce the system's staggering and increasing complexity. Every hour spent treating a patient in America creates at least 30 minutes of paperwork, and often a whole hour. Next year the number of federally mandated categories of illness and injury for which hospitals may claim reimbursement will rise from 18,000 to 140,000. There are nine codes relating to injuries caused by parrots, and three relating to burns from flaming water-skis.
Two forces make American laws too complex. One is hubris. Many lawmakers seem to believe that they can lay down rules to govern every eventuality. Examples range from the merely annoying (eg, a proposed code for nurseries in Colorado that specifies how many crayons each box must contain) to the delusional (eg, the conceit of Dodd-Frank that you can anticipate and ban every nasty trick financiers will dream up in the future). Far from preventing abuses, complexity creates loopholes that the shrewd can abuse with impunity.
The other force that makes American laws complex is lobbying. The government's drive to micromanage so many activities creates a huge incentive for interest groups to push for special favours. When a bill is hundreds of pages long, it is not hard for congressmen to slip in clauses that benefit their chums and campaign donors. The health-care bill included tons of favours for the pushy. Congress's last, failed attempt to regulate greenhouse gases was even worse.
Complexity costs money. Sarbanes-Oxley, a law aimed at preventing Enron-style frauds, has made it so difficult to list shares on an American stockmarket that firms increasingly look elsewhere or stay private. America's share of initial public offerings fell from 67% in 2002 (when Sarbox passed) to 16% last year, despite some benign tweaks to the law. A study for the Small Business Administration, a government body, found that regulations in general add $10,585 in costs per employee. It's a wonder the jobless rate isn't even higher than it is.
The contraction in aggregate notional derivatives positions was largely driven by the interest rate segment. Notional amounts of interest rate derivatives contracts stood at $563 trillion at mid-2014, about $20 trillion below the volume recorded at end-2013. Outstanding volumes of interest rate swaps fell by 8% to $421 trillion... The contraction in swap positions was partly offset by rising activity in the forward rate agreement segment, where notional contract volumes expanded by 17% to $93 trillion. Outstanding amounts of fixed income options, by contrast, remained largely unchanged.
The distribution of interest rate derivatives by counterparty points to a continued shift in activity towards financial institutions other than dealers right-hand panel). Contracts between dealers and other financial institutions stood at $463 trillion at end-June 2014, or 82% of all contracts, up from about one half at end-2008. A potential driver could be the increased use of derivatives by asset management firms and a general shift away from the traditional dealer-centric market structure. That said, the trend towards central clearing of OTC contracts also plays an important role, as it may overstate growth in notional amounts for other financial institutions. Once a trade between a dealer and its counterparty is novated to the central counterparty (CCP), it becomes two outstanding contracts with the CCP.
Hey look: the Bank for International Settlements just released a report (HERE) sowing that the Derivatives market (you know, the thing that destroyed the world economy and is now nicely regulated by our Central Planners) is "only"..... outstanding OTC derivatives contracts fell by 3% to "only" to $691 trillion as of end-June 2014.
Yes, the New Economy is doing better than ever. Why, we haven't been this prosperous in over a couple decades - just ask Joe.
FROM Forbes: Why The Glass-Steagall Myth PersistsActually, you don't know. What nearly brought down the world economy wasn't the derivative market. It was banks trading in derivative markets with depositor money which nearly destroyed the world economy. It wasn't derivative markets. Derivative trading has been around for centuries. It's part of that "free market" thingy you keep preaching about. And there are good reasons why derivative trading is important and integral to free markets. Derivatives are most often used to mitigate risk in the underlying security by transferring risk to the derivative purchaser.
It was the deregulation of the banking industry, the repeal of Glass-Steagall. You know deregulation, the other thing you preach about.
November 3, 2014And yes, this is the best economy we have seen in more than a 15 years. That is a fact.
My suggestion is you go down and lay claim to your Government vouchers - then put your infant/s into one of the Government certified day supervision centers. Let them raise your child from 3 weeks of age. Then your child can graduate from their Government run day supervision center into a Government run Government School - where they can learn to sit in neat little rows, raise their hands when they have to pee (always a good skill to learn in prison or the military) and learn to accept their Government licensed Government school psychologists diagnosis of ADHD. Pass the Government certification MCQ tests. Bulimic learning is very very important. Your children should learn to take their Government regulated anti-psychotics in daily doses while learning to accept their role as State dependent labor cog. Well, I should say 'service' cog. So they can work at a chain store somewhere that just barely pays enough to make rent to their slumlord.The scariest term that economists have been throwing around lately is "secular stagnation." That sounds technical, but it's easy enough to explain: it means the economy is in a slump that it may never be able to escape. It's one thing to say things will have to get worse before they get better; quite another to say they'll just keep getting worse. But that's the fear expressed by former Treasury Secretary and White House chief economist Lawrence Summers in an essay published last week. Summers observes that growth in the U.S. and Europe--and projections for future growth--have been dismal and getting worse. (See graph above.) "U.S. economic growth has averaged only 2% over the last five years, despite having started from a highly depressed state," he writes. What's worse, he asserts that growth was meager even in the pre-recession period, when it appeared to be quite healthy. But its fundamental sickness was masked by risky financing--"vast erosion of credit standards, the biggest housing bubble in a century, the emergence of substantial budget deficits, and what many criticize as lax monetary and regulatory policies.... It has been close to 20 years since the American economy grew at a healthy pace supported by sustainable finance."
Summers' concerns are echoed by a clutch of leading economists--among them Barry Eichengreen of Berkeley and Paul Krugman of Princeton--who contributed to a remarkable volume on secular stagnation published in August by the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research; the Summers essay appeared as its keynote. Many of them find that the evidence of secular stagnation is inescapable, though they disagree about its causes and therefore its remedies. The causes include a slowdown of technological advances aiding productivity--electricity and the internal combustion engine are behind us; a slowdown in population growth; a rise in income inequality; and a failure to invest in infrastructure. The latter two get most of the blame, with good reason.
As Eichengreen reflects, "Pessimists have been predicting slowing rates of invention and innovation for centuries, and they have been consistently wrong." Robotics and genomics, he argues, bear as much potential for improving human productivity as the industrial revolution did in the 19th century. On the other hand, federal spending "devoted heavily to infrastructure, education and training has been cut to the bone." Robert J. Gordon of Northwestern adds that "salaries for CEOs and celebrities march ever upwards," while for workers in the lower 90% of income, "corporations are working overtime to reduce wages, reduce benefits, convert defined benefit pension plans to defined contribution, and to use Obamacare as an excuse to convert full-time jobs to part-time status.... For the disposable (after-tax) incomes of the bottom 99%, it is hard to find any room for growth at all."
Not all the economists are as pessimistic: Nicholas Crafts of the University of Warwick observes that the term "secular stagnation" was coined by economist Alvin Hansen in 1938 as a projection of a permanent post-Depression slump, but his fears turned out to be "the delusions of a hypochondriac," proved wrong by World War II and the postwar boom. Yet Summers and his fellows struggle to find the light. "It is certainly possible that some major exogenous event will occur," he writes. "Short of war, it is not obvious what such events might be." The greatest reason they find for despair is the failure of government in the U.S. and Europe to respond. Summers writes that improving financial stability, increasing economic output and raising employment require "increased public investment, reductions in structural barriers to private investment ... a commitment to maintain basic social protections so as to maintain spending power, and measures to reduce inequality and so redistribute income toward those with a higher propensity to spend" (that is, middle- and lower-income households).
The U.S. is moving away from, not toward, those policies; if the Republicans take the Senate on Tuesday, the prospects for such a program grow dimmer. All isn't lost, but the future is in our hands. Says Eichengreen: "If the U.S. experiences secular stagnation, the condition will be self-inflicted.... It is important not to accept secular stagnation, but instead to take steps to avoid it."
November 3, 2014
The Economist: Is the U.S. economy in a permanent slump? These economists fear it is
See the 'Actual' - that's the New Economy, expect to see this for the foreseeable future. The Japanese have had 20 bouts of QE - they're in recession. And, unlike the USSA, Japanese society is much easier to manage and has plenty of private social mechanisms (thanks to population homogeneity - somewhat similar to Scandinavian countries), that allow for huge cost savings. While any Japanese child can walk through any part of any city in Japan (thus they can spend much less on police - as an example) we have to live in a Police State because crack-head-progressive-welfare ghettos litter the cities of the USSA (the socialists built those for 'the Good of Society') and trigger happy Government Militants prowl their various territories in their shakedown of the American Tax Chattel - any who dares to step (even a tiny bit) out of line. One mile of the speed limit? You get a $200 fine. Complain a little? Bullet to the head.
Don't worry, printing money isn't going to magically turn functional crack-head illiterates, into literary composers. It isn't going to end the Police State - it's going to PAY FOR IT.... and is, as we speak. Yes, 100 years of Central Banking, Central Planning, Centralized Violence has bred multiple generations of Americans completely dependent on the State. This IS our 'progressive' society. Our sick economy is only a reflection of our sick society. So, pay your Progressive Income Tax and accept your role as helpless tax chattel.
My suggestion is you go down and lay claim to your Government vouchers - then put your infant/s into one of the Government certified day supervision centers. Let them raise your child from 3 weeks of age. Then your child can graduate from their Government run day supervision center into a Government run Government School - where they can learn to sit in neat little rows, raise their hands when they have to pee (always a good skill to learn in prison or the military) and learn to accept their Government licensed Government school psychologists diagnosis of ADHD. Pass the Government certification MCQ tests. Bulimic learning is very very important. Your children should learn to take their Government regulated anti-psychotics in daily doses while learning to accept their role as State dependent labor cog. Well, I should say 'service' cog. So they can work at a chain store somewhere that just barely pays enough to make rent to their slumlord.
And above all, they should keep praying to the State.
They should keep pulling the magic Left-Right lever.
They should listen to their betters - The hyper-Regulators.
AND do what their hyper-Regulators tell them to do.
Then go die as good little hyper-Regulated Citizens OF the State in another one of their State's phony wars. Your children can finally fulfill their destiny as cannon fodder. And when they do. Just know, their death will increase the GDP numbers - and, according to many a State Economist, that'll be good for Society.
Rinse and Repeat
Seven years of New Economy - hope you're getting used to it, it isn't going away.
If you have an argument, make it - to The Economist. Want to know why Democrats are having their arses handed to them? It's because no one can find reasonable employment in the hyper-Regulated unfree-markets. Only lowly paid shit jobs in retail and other chain stores. It's just dumb luck a golfer Democrip happens to be in office and not a golfer Rethuglican.Surprise, surprise, you are misrepresenting material again Michael.
When you cite the Economist, I will respond to it. You cited an opinion piece from the LA Times, not the Economist, and there is no supporting documentation for the GDP forecasts. Further, the text you cited doesn't support your contentions. Yes, the recovery from the liquidity trap of 2007-2009, also know as The Great Recession has been slow for the following reasons:If you have an argument, make it - to The Economist. Want to know why Democrats are having their arses handed to them? It's because no one can find reasonable employment in the hyper-Regulated unfree-markets. Only lowly paid shit jobs in retail and other chain stores. It's just dumb luck a golfer Democrip happens to be in office and not a golfer Rethuglican.
But don't worry, like any other cancerous parasite, the State will continue to expand until it kills its host. Thus, anyone who has something worth 'taxing', should be a bit concerned. Because there are thousands and thousands and thousands of little bureaucrats - who all spend all day long just looking for the right patsy/people to 'tax' - you know, "For the Good of Society".
Enjoy the New Economy - it's here to stay.