The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

[Michael]

So, Alan "Bubbles" Greenspan destroyed the economy, but good good ole' Helicopter Ben swooped in and bailed out the top 0.01% who have never made more profit, at least not since the time of Kings and Queens, and maybe not even then.

Will the unelected Bankers who run (and own about 80% of) the USSA continue to tapper? Or was this Benny Boy making a little show of it so as not to out after 6 years of failed policies?

Has Austerity come to Amerikkka? If so then we can expect unemployment (already set to remain high) to go higher. Much higher. More concession from workers. More benefits to the capital holders. Less opportunities for the millennial. Back into recession we go. At which point, then what? Is it bye bye USD? Or maybe we go to war against Martians like Krugman wants? (Martians is code for Muslims in case you didn't know).

Thanks the GODS we have Central Planners at our Central Bank working hand in glove with the Central Government to control and organize our lives for them. Welcome to the Tax Farm bicheez.

 

[Billy T]

Well ShadowStats does more than that. They count employed people as unemployed ...

Quite an assertion. Have you any evidence it its true and not jut more of your inventions like your quote of Bloomberg which does not exist? (Or at least link never given despite 16 requests for it.)

BTW I'll start a new count on this claim that ShadowStat counts employed as unemployed. - This is request #1 for some support of this assertion of yours.

 

[joepistole]

Quite an assertion. Have you any evidence it its true and not jut more of your inventions like your quote of Bloomberg which does not exist? (Or at least link never given despite 16 requests for it.)

BTW I'll start a new count on this claim that ShadowStat counts employed as unemployed. - This is request #1 for some support of this assertion of yours.

LOL, that's a double LOL! Well actually it’s not as much of an assertion as you seem to think it is because if you read through John Williams (i.e. ShadowStats) detail, he tells you as much. But you have to be able to understand what he is telling his readers. Apparently you don’t have that ability.

“The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.” - http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

And it’s not like you, Michael and I haven’t had this discussion umpteen times before. Are you really that dense?

And unfortunately that article from Bloomberg does exit. Holding your hands over your ears, closing your eyes and yelling, “I can’t hear you” over and over won’t change reality Billy T. And the fact is you have not been able to prove your assertion that the Federal Reserve doesn’t have Germany’s gold reserves or that the Fed may have in someway wrongly encumbered Germany's gold deposits. And you have yet to prove your assertion that the Fed told Germany it couldn’t get its gold deposits back when desired and would need to wait as much as 7 years to get them back.

The reality Billy T is that you have gone over the edge. You buy into all of this fringe nonsense and have absolutely no proofs to support your machinations. When confronted with facts you just retreat into your fantasy world with denials and generous ad hominem and other errors of logic and cite more specious conspiracy nonsense.

Here is some more truth for you to seek your teeth into. If people had listened to you, they would have missed a doubling of the stock markets and they would have suffered $700+ dollar per troy ounce loss in gold. You have no formal education in business or economics. You only know what you have picked up from the various specious right wing whacko conspiracy websites you frequent and that my friend is why you are reduced to spamming your own threads and the threads of others in the B&E forum with this unfounded conspiracy nonsense.

 

[Billy T]

LOL, that's a double LOL! ...

I asked for support for your assertion that ShadowStats was a conspiracy site inventing thing. your LoL^2 is not that, so I formal ask again (# 2 request)for support of your attack on the ShadowStats site

... “The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.”

Yes that is correct, confirming what I said. Sadowstats uses the original BLS measure of unemployment, which BLS now calls U6 but is not often published. But for max effect, SadowStat used early BLS defined (U9?) which only counted as employed the full time employed as percent of the total potential work force. That is somewhat like the "labor participation rate" which shows 1/3are not working - some by choice, some by lack of a job.) Here U3, BLS's circulated in news releases like the recent fall to 6.5% graphically compared to SadowStats U6 unemployment rate by months in 3013:

note the last bar shows U6 is twice the BLS's U3 value and in Michael's graph, the grey line, (U6) confirms this 2 to 1 ratio is nearly constant but not as high as the blue line, which unlike U3 & U6 does not count as "employed" people who want full time employment, but take part time employment as some income is better than none. BLS has data on them too but if it has an official BLS name (U9?) I forget it and almost never see it, except at ShadowStat. (Micheal's graph's blue line.)

... And it’s not like you, Michael and I haven’t had this discussion umpteen times before. Are you really that dense?

NO - its just that we don't accept your LoLs as proof of anything, but only as indication you have no backing for your assertions.

And unfortunately that article from Bloomberg does exit.

That is a blantent lie - but even though I know you can not produce a link to a non-existent Bloomberg articl you claim to have been quotng from, I ask again (#17) for the link.

... the fact is you have not been able to prove your assertion that the Federal Reserve doesn’t have Germany’s gold reserves or that the Fed may have in someway wrongly encumbered Germany's gold deposits. ... And you have yet to prove your assertion that the Fed told Germany it couldn’t get its gold deposits back when desired and would need to wait as much as 7 years to get them back.

Agreed as I never asserted that or that. The closest I come to the second is to state they there is agreement by all, including the Fed, that some of Germany's gold will not be returned until 2020. Why is subject to many speculation, including several of mine. I'm getting tired of you putting those words in my mouth so for 5th time I ask you to give link to my post asserting that.

I did quote (and gave links which your don't do) two sources asserting that. You as in your style, only attacked the sources calling them right conspiratoral sources, as I recall. I have suggested several reason why Germany cannot get all it gold held in NYC vault back before 2020. They did get 5 of the 300 tonnes they want back at the end of 2013 (last day, I think it was). France returned in the same week 25 tonnes. My latest speculation based on the Bundesbund letter admitting they, not the Fed, had asked for they old gold bars to be recast into London Good Delivery form (1Kg bars of at least "two 99s," I. e. 99.99% pure Au, as I recall).

When I learned (right from the horse's mouth, so to speak) that this re casting was at Germany's request, I suggested that most probably, Germany its self had leased out the gold. Many governments have been leasing until a coupe of years ago as the lease rate was higher than the Libor rate. (I.e. they collect up front the lease fee and must pay the LIbor rate. The "lease rate" is the difference, but that difference has turned slightly negative now so leasing of gold by central banks is over until, and if, the lease rate turns positive again. I have posted a graph showing the lease rate as function of time - If not too much effort, tomorrow, I'll find it and add at the end by edit.

The reality Billy T is that you have gone over the edge.

If my that you mean I insist "LoL" is not a supporting fact or even a link to such, Yes "i'm over the edge" and will continue to ask you to support your assertions, especially as you only attack other's quotes with charge they are right wing fringe / conspiratorial sources.

... When confronted with facts you just retreat into your fantasy world with denials and generous ad hominem and other errors of logic and cite more specious conspiracy nonsense.

Please do "confront me with some facts" - Your assertions are not facts. Site my error of logic etc.

Here is some more truth for you to seek your teeth into. If people had listened to you, they would have missed a doubling of the stock markets and they would have suffered $700+ dollar per troy ounce loss in gold. ...

That I another lie. I never recommended buying gold any where near the peak. About half way down the April crash of price down I did say "gold was a "screaming buy" but it did become and even better buy - I told I when I bought 500sh of GLD and why on the last business day of 2013 and that the 57+ thousand I paid for it was the largest singe "buy" in my life. That was when gold was selling for about $1185/ ounce. To day it closed at $1243 bid/ $1244 asked. I'm happy to be with > $50 paper profit but will not sell until start of 2015 (partly for tax reasons), but more be cause I expect the price to be than at least double of what I paid. I'm not sure, but think gold is up ~5% while stocks (the Dow-Jones) is down about 2 or 3 % since start of 2014.

I'll close by asking for a quote of me recommending gold $700 higher than it is - Hell, lets be generous just to show how you lie - invent things, quote me telling others to buy even when it was ~$350 higher. I.e. at 1243 + 350 = $1593/ per ounce. (This is only first time I ask for that.)

 

[joepistole]

I asked for support for your assertion that ShadowStats was a conspiracy site inventing thing. your LoL^2 is not that, so I formal ask again (# 2 request)for support of your attack on the ShadowStats siteYes that is correct, confirming what I said. Sadowstats uses the original BLS measure of unemployment, which BLS now calls U6 but is not often published. Here U3, BLS's circulated in news releases like the recent fall to 6.5% graphically compared to SadowStats U6 unemployment rate by months in 3013:

note the last bar shows U6 is twice the U5 value and in Michael's graph, the grey line, (U6) confirms this 2 to 1 ratio is nearly constant but not as high as the blue line, which unlike U3 & U6 does not count as "employed" people who want full time employment, but take part time employment as some income is better than none. BLS has data on them too but if it has an official BLS name (U9?) I forget it and almost never see it, except at ShadowStat. NO - its just that we don't accept your LoLs as proof of anything, but only as indication you have now backing for your assertions. That is a blantent lie - but even though I know you can not produce a link to a non-existent Bloomberg articl you claim to have been quotng from, I ask again (#17) for the link.Agreed as I never asserted that or that. The closest I come to the second is to state they there is agreement by all that some of Germany's gold will not be returned until 2020. Why is subject to many speculation, including several of mine. I'm getting tired of you putting those words in my mouth so for 5th time I ask you to give link to my post asserting that.

I did quote (and gave links which your don't do) two sources asserting that. You as in your style, only attacked the sources calling them right conspiratoral sources, as I recall. I have suggested several reason why Germany cannot get all it gold held in NYC vault back before 2020. They did get 5 of the 300 tonnes they want back at the end of 2013 (last day, I think it was). France returned in the same week 25 tonnes. My latest speculation based on the Bundesbund letter admitting they, not the Fed, had asked for they old gold bars to be recast into London Good Delivery form (1Kg bars of at least "two 99s," I. e. 99.99% pure Au, as I recall).

When I learned (right from the horse's mouth, so to speak) that this re casting was at Germany's request, I suggested that most probably, Germany its self had leased out the gold. Many governments have been leasing until a coupe of years ago as the lease rate was higher than the Libor rate. (I.e. they collect up front the lease fee and must pay the LIbor rate. The "lease rate" is the difference, but that difference has turned slightly negative now so leasing of gold by central banks is over until, and if, the lease rate turns positive again. I have posted a graph showing the lease rate as function of time - If not too much effort, I'll find it and add at the end by edit. If my that you mean I insist "LoL" is not a supporting fact or even a link to such, Yes "i'm over the edge" and will continue to ask you to support your assertions, especially as you only attack other's quotes with charge they are right wing fringe / conspiratorial sources.

I'll close by asking for a quote of me recommending gold $700 higher than it is - Hell, lets be generous just to show how you lie - invent things, quote me telling others to buy even when it was ~$350 higher. I.e. at 1243 + 350 = $1593/ per ounce. (This is only first time I ask for that.)

No Billy, I am not going to play this game you like to play. Your own words convict you. And it is pretty obvious to anyone who reads this discussion, and that my friend is why you are mostly alone in B&E spamming your own threads and those of others. And when your predictions fail, as they always do, you will invent more excuses.

You have a gold prediction for next month and an Armageddon prediction for this October. We won’t have to wait long.

 

[Billy T]

Here is the promised part of post showing Central bank leasing has ended as the lease rate is now slightly negative.

Before 2008 crisis, central banks made money by leasing out their gold. (Red line > zero.) The 1-month lease rate is shown as an annual average.
Data sources for graph: Federal Reserve Bulletin, Foreign Official Assets Held at Federal Reserve Banks, Earmarked Gold & LBMA.

Before 2002 Fed's NYC vault leased out ~310 tonnes /year (blue bars) and only honored small promises for two years and then let no gold leave for three years more (lease rate dollar gains too low). In 2007 & '08 it lets 400+ tonnes total leave. Most of the gold, I think, in NYC vault is foreign gold, so most probably it was not US gold being leased out, but whose gold is increasing the supply of gold in not important... {any new supply lowers the price}.

(1) I asked for support for your assertion that ShadowStats was a conspiracy site inventing thing. Your LoL^2 is not that, so I formally ask again (# 3 request) for support of your attack on the ShadowStats site.

(2) Joepistole states in post 683: "... that article from Bloomberg does exit."
I replied: "That is a blatant lie." and now ask again (for the 18th time) for you to give the link to Bloomberg.

(3) Also in post 683, Joe states: "... the fact is you have not been able to prove your assertion that the Federal Reserve doesn’t have Germany’s gold reserves"
I again note I never said that. Joe is putting those words in my mouth so (for the 6th time) I again ask you to give link to my post asserting that.

(4) Also in post 683, Joe states: " If people had listened to you, they would have missed a doubling of the stock markets and they would have suffered $700+ dollar per troy ounce loss in gold. ..."
More false statements by Joe, so I replied in 684:
"I'm happy to be with > $50 paper profit but will not sell until start of 2015 (partly for tax reasons), but more be cause I expect the price to be than at least double of what I paid. I'm not sure, but think gold is up ~5% while stocks (the Dow-Jones) is down about 2 or 3 % since start of 2014. I'll close by asking for a quote of me recommending gold $700 higher than it is - Hell, lets be generous just to show how you lie - invent things, quote me telling others to buy even when it was ~$350 higher. I.e. at 1243 + 350 = $1593/ per ounce. (The 2nd time I ask for that.)"

Note at time of post684, gold was higher so $50/sh was then correct. The bears have made a good try at lowering the price of gold when the buying for the Chinese new year presents was over.(The buyers are now back home with their families, for about a week) I.e. Bears were able to drive gold price down to $1240/oz in the absence of Chinese demand, but it is already climbing back up. Not only are the Chinese buying at the new floor of $1240/oz but there are serious political problems in at least half a dozen countries now - their rich are buying, too.
I will copy and by edit from my history at TD AmT showing to the second when this transaction occurred and showing the price I paid for 500 sh of GLD.
Here is data promised:
Date & Time: 12/31/2013 at 08:47:13
Description: Bought 500 GLD @ 115.11
Amount: -57,564.99 Your broker may be able to confirm 500sh of GLD were bought at that time (given to the second!) Unlike like Joe who thinks his "LoL" is documentation, I give links you can check. Currently (8:11 AM in NYC market is not open, but gold trades almost 24 hours per day and is at 1247.70/ oz. I can't now get price of non-trading GLD but it will be essentially 1/10 of gold's price so say it is 124.77/ sh. (127.77 - 115.11 = $12,66 per share times 500 sh is $6,330 paper profit but now that law of supply and demand is taking over the job of setting price gold trades at (instead of the Paper Gold tradrs at Comex)** I am quite sure gold will surpass its all time high in 2014, but I'll not sell, for tax reasons until January 2015 at the earliest. (Probably never - just die owning it so my heirs get the new much higher cost basis - the price at time of my death.)

I think the stock market is now lower than at end of 2013, but I'm up on my gold buy ~5% in just this month of January. People who listen to me would be much better off than buying stocks, now that their support (the 85billion / month tapper) is being cut.
I'll note that I got my GLD at slight discount to the normal price which is ~10% of the price on an ounce of gold because of the huge "tax loss" selling pressure on GLD which is an ETF that stores physical gold in a London vault. (Many, as I expected/ predicted/ took profits on stock I correctlys and needed some tax-off setting loss sales on them. (Why I bought on last day of the year. - I correctly expected / predicted that many would wait until last week of the year to take their profits as stock prices were rising.)

GLD sell a little gold periodically to cover their operating cost, but as they are by far the largest ETF holding physical gold, the cost per share is much less than the rent of a bank vault. I also like the fact it is in England. In more than 700 years never has private gold been confiscated - It effectively was (paid only $35/oz) in the US in 1932.

(6) In post 680, Joe states without any back up - just his opinion:
"ShadowStats is one of those fringe websites which caters to the conspiracy and right wing lunatic fringes in order to justify their ideological positions. "
I have asked a couple of times for link agreeing with his opinion. - None given yet, but some may exist (at some right wing site, I would bet).

(7) In post 678, to Michael, Joe states:
"It's amazing what you can claim when you just make up numbers in order to support your ideology. "
I now note that graph Michael post obviously is nothing but a quote from some source. Michael did not make that graph. Michael posted that unemployment vs. time graph to support what he did assert, namely:
"... 'Federal' Reserve bailed out the richest 0.01% by shoveling generational debt onto the poorest while pulling the rug out from under anyone who may have stood a chance of creating a meaningful business and providing gainful employment."

Rather that try to refute items others have posted, Joe often puts words into their mouths - converting posting of source into a claim/ assertion they made, according to Joe. This, or attacking the credibility of the source, is Joes standary "reply mode." I have been victim of it dozens of times, but have started to call him on it and ask for his sources (His "LoL" does not demonstrate you or your sources are wrong - only that Joe has no real rebuttal.)

So In summary, I will be happy to let readers compare my reference facts with Joe's "LoL" and unsupported assertions, etc.

** want another not distant prediction? Ok, I predict the twice daily and already quite meaningless "fixing of the price of gold" in London will cease to be done in 2014. The German bank, one of five used for the "fix" has already ceased to participate - others will soon - it is a silly obsolete "tradition" ONLY now. Chinese demand, already greater than the supply, will be how price of gold is "fixed."

 

[joepistole]

Unfortunately Billy T you have gone off the deep end and unfortunately for you the truth is self-evident in your writing. Your revisionism, illogical arguments, attempts at bullying and personal attacks are all for naught, your words, your posts, betray you.

And I am not going to waste further time playing your games of obfuscation. If you want to be seen as credible, start making sense and lay off the specious websites. Use credible sources and lay off the unfounded conspiracy nonsense.

 

[Billy T]

Unfortunately Billy T you have gone off the deep end and unfortunately for you the truth is self-evident in your writing. Your revisionism, illogical arguments, attempts at bullying and personal attacks are all for naught, your words, your posts, betray you.

And I am not going to waste further time playing your games of obfuscation. If you want to be seen as credible, start making sense and lay off the specious websites. Use credible sources and lay off the unfounded conspiracy nonsense.

Thanks for another good example of pure opinion (no links to sources or facts) and claims any sources I site such as (on this page since post 669) Bloomberg, BLS, FRED, Kitco and the facts given from them are "unfounded conspiracy nonsense." If you could, you would refute FACTS with other references, not opinions & "LoL" but you can't.

When I give photo graphic evidence, it just ignored (Too hard for you to say it does not exist, but you could claim it is all a right-wing, conspiracy's photo shop trick.)
For example, this shows how even part-time Big-Mac jobs are desperately sought by many who have none (Some are old & all are 18 or older with high school degree)*:

Job seekers, even a summer, Big Mac one, at Kentucky Fun park!
Or this kitco.com one showing how gold has climbed >2% /day while stocks worth less now than at end of 2013 as the blowing up of their balloon has slowed Fed's tapper):

China's buy:

So much gold (10 tonnes recently in one day) has gone to Asia, that JP Morgan sold to Chinese firm this large NYC office building which has US's largest private vault in basement. (Vault not needed now that it is nearly empty){Someone skilled in photo shop, not me, placed the Chinese Flag on it; but CCP may like that and paint it on.}

SUMMARY: Its your excess of opinions & "LoLs" and lack of referenced facts and invention of supporting text from non-existent, but claimed sources like Bloomberg etc. that "betray you." BTW, I welcome your fact supported (with links) comments on my post, but not more of your words placed in my mouth with never any link to my post where you claim I said your invented words. As I said, in post 684's bold text, with links giving documentation: "I'm getting tired of you placing words in my mouth by you saying I ASSERTED something when in fact I only quoted a source and gave link to it."

* These job seekers must not have stocks to enjoy the benefits of the Fed's pumping stocks up in 2013. What's wrong Joe American? Why so dumb, not to buy stocks?

PS, later by edit: Just noticed that the Kitco graph "live up-dates" so now no longer shows the >2% rate of price increase as it did for the 30 days prior to my first posting it in post 676. I'll get the data for the 30 days before last week of January from their historical file and add it here later, but first want to note why the last week of January broke the steady climb in gold's price, even drove it down to a new floor of $1240/oz briefly:

The Chinese lunar year of the horse began on 31 January. Almost all with wealth living in the cities return, with valuable presents, gold most often, to their rural families for week.** They ceased buying gold and will not buy much before they return to their jobs. (This stagnation in gold's price is more evidence that the law of "Supply and Demand" is taking over the job of setting the price of gold from the "paper gold" traders at Comex. Comex's vault is so empty of "deliverable gold" that there were last Friday (~10 days ago) 111.6 potential claims on each ounce still in the vault. (>80% of that vault gold at start of 2013 was gone by the end of 2013 - see data I have published in the "Gold goes Pop" thread.) As soon as it is out, and sent to me by seekingalpha source, I follow - I'll post last Friday's data on how many can claim the remaining ounces.)

** There is interesting new business in China now:
A successful young urban girl does not want to return home for the new-year week off, without the husband she told her mom (who is anxious for grand children) she had. So before the trip she visits the "Rent a husband" store. Can "Rent a Kid" store be far behind?

 

[Michael]

BillyT,

I'm curious, if your prediction is true - then you would expect the Federal Reserve to reverse course and un-tapper. However, if my prediction is true (this IS the recovery, welcome to the New Economy) then I think the Fed is starting to shore up the USD. Many of the richest 0.01% own the banks who own Fed - and they are in no way interested in their currency, and their power, going to zero. Time to tapper. Watch how little the State cares for the young or the poor. If worse comes to worse - they'll start a World War before they give up power. These people are sociopaths.

 

[Billy T]

BillyT, I'm curious, if your prediction is true - then you would expect the Federal Reserve to reverse course and un-tapper. ...

Yes, but first just to hold at the then current rate of buying say greater than 50 billion more of thin-air money per month, which is still the road to Zimbabwe. (BTW, Zimbbwe's currency collapse got so bad, they made the dollar the government's official currency. - It was the defacto currency already in the black market. They knew how much pain a collapsing currency can cause, so took a second look at the dollar and said: "Oh, No! We don't want to go thru that again." So now the official and used currency in Zimbabwe is the Chinese Yuan!)

The US really has no choice: Normal economics, which we have not seen in US for nearly a decade now, says: US must raise taxes very significantly AND very significantly cut government spending." Neither necessity is politically popular - Hell, vote for either and you lose the next election. But our government is clever: They will and have already started to pick you pocket in another way, and some of you fools are helping them do it:

MyIRA is really Social Security 2. I.e. just like social security did for many years it will feed money to Washington so they can build bridge to no where, buying votes with tax income to aid them selves in the next election. Then like SS is now, the promised pay out will exceed the associated income. - I.e. those bonds in the SS trust fund are not yet worthless, just a growing drain on the Treasury. Perhaps fools participating in MyIRA will fund this drain for a few years, but then wise up so MyIRA will become maditory like SS did with larger contributions "For your secure retirement."

I.e. like SS, it is really a Ponzi plan, but private Ponzi plans don't have the power of government to compel participation. The thing they have in common with the government's Ponzi plans is promise of returns later, paid to you by the new participants in the plan. Unfortunately government can not find buyers for the bridges to no where willing to pay the construction cost. So just like the Fed with ~3 trillion dollars of recently acquired "assets" it can't find buyers for (without deep discount form the Fed's purchase price) they are stuck - must just hold the assets and pretend for as long as they can that it is worth what they paid for it. In the Fed's case that is "hold till the bonds mature" but that maturing is just more drain on the Treasury to be paid with more thin-air money. US is "Zimbabwe II" before the younger / middle aged readers here are dead. I sure hope the Martians invade soon to straighten this mess out - kicking the can down the road just makes it worse.

BTW, the reason the rich 1%ers will support expansion of endless QE is they are protecting them selves now by buying gold and don't like the falling value shown in their end of January report from their stock broker.

 

[Michael]

At least out Central Planer's Dogs are eating well.......

...... even if a few million American children starve today.

Michelle Obama of White House canines dining on fine taxpayer-funded china.
@ FLOTUS
# Bone appétit!

 

[kmguru]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000239279

 

[Billy T]

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000239279

Interesting, but surprised me that not one of them mentioned the essential reason why the QE will continue at a high rate: I.e. the Fed is already buying >80% of treasury new issue as buying bonds is attractive to few. (Only insurance companies, etc. with known schedule of payments to make in fixed nominal value dollars. - They don't care if the widow's $100,000 life insurance check will not even pay her rent that month - their obligation was to pay her $100,000 when hubby died. So they can and do buy 100% safe bonds.)

The fed buys with new thin air money and as I have said many times: "The Fed has a tiger by the tail." - Can't stop buying as if it did, interest rates would at least double or more than triple on the 30 year bonds. - US cannot afford to "roll" 17 trillion dollars of debt with those interest rates. QEinfinity is well named.

 

[Billy T]

USA, a nation of Renters:

First-time homebuyers hurt by rising prices and tougher credit standards are disappearing from the market, slowing the pace of the three-year recovery. ... The decline of these buyers has hurt U.S. sales, which fell 5.1 percent in January from a year earlier, according to NAR. While purchases rose 8.2 percent for residences costing more than $250,000, they fell 10.7 percent for homes worth less.

“It’s a huge problem,” said Leslie Appleton-Young, chief economist for the California Association of Realtors. “We have a ladder of homeownership and need first-time homebuyers beginning the process of owning, building equity and trading up to have a healthy housing sector.” ... Blackstone Group LP (BX) and other investors paid cash to absorb foreclosed homes to convert to rentals. In December, 47 percent of U.S. purchases were paid for with cash, up from 27 percent a year earlier and the highest level in data going back to at least 2005 ...

More owners of moderately priced homes are also becoming landlords, reducing the supply for first time buyers. Thirty-nine percent of owners looking for better homes plan to keep their current house as a rental. “Being a landlord was not something that many people looked forward to in the past and now that’s much more of a norm.” said, Glenn Kelman, CEO of Redfib, a Seattle-based brokerage firm, in a report last month.

Logan Mohtashami, a senior loan officer with AMC Lending Group in Irvine, California, hasn’t gotten one pre-qualification application from a person younger than 35 since Jan. 1. “They’re usually about 40 percent of buyers,” said Mohtashami, whose company has been lending since 1987. “This year, it’s so quiet. They’re not even getting started in the process.” After reaching 50.1 percent in 2005, the homeownership rate for people in their 20s and 30s fell to 42.2 percent in 2013, the lowest in 19 years of Census data analyzed by Emmons and Noeth, the Fed analysts.

Blackstone had spent $7.5 billion to buy 40,000 mostly foreclosed houses across the country. That's a spending rate of $100 million a week since October 2012. It recently announced plans to take the business international, beginning in foreclosure-ravaged Spain.

Few outside the finance industry have heard of Blackstone. Yet today, it's the largest owner of single-family rental homes in the nation.

The USA has the best government money can buy: "For the rich; By their lobbyists; and For their corporations."

 

[Billy T]

USA a nation of part time / low pay workers:

Recent college graduates are ending up in more low-wage and part-time positions as it’s become harder to find education-level appropriate jobs, according to a January study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

The share of Americans ages 22 to 27 with at least a bachelor’s degree in jobs that don’t require that level of education was 44 percent in 2012, up from 34 percent in 2001, the study found. Competition can leave less-educated -- yet still qualified -- individuals with few employment options, said Heidi Shierholz, economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington.

“College graduates might not be in a job that requires a college degree, but they’re more likely to have a job,” she said. Less-educated young adults are then more likely to drop out of the labor market, said Paul Beaudry, an economics professor at the University of British Columbia in Vancouver who studies U.S. employment trends.

Oh but that's great - dropping out of the labor force is what mainly causes "lower unemployment."

 

[kmguru]

Thank you Billy T....I put that in my Facebook...

 

[Billy T]

Thank you Billy T....I put that in my Facebook...

Good. With bond yields artificially low life insurance companies are becoming land lords too, especially the largests: Met Life. Read: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-...young-adults-seek-to-rent.html?alcmpid=wealth
But they have liked commercial real estate more in the past, but now are moving into buying* and renting multi-family apartment buildings too.

* Even building some for rental. US is becoming a nation of renters with many young having little other choice (except "dad's basement"). Many with paid for homes, are truning to "reverse mortgages" too out of need. I.e. mortgage firms are slowly gaining their homes and will eventually rent most of them.

 

[Billy T]

.
.
Has the run I forecast ~7 years ago started?

Gold surged up to $1388/oz but is "only" $1379/oz now.

For a much better, and up to date, indicator of what foreigners are doing with US Treasurys in near real time, the bond watchers keep track of a less known data series, called "Treasury Securities Held in Custody for Foreign Official and International Accounts" which as the name implies shows what foreigners are doing with their Treasury securities held in custody by the Fed on a weekly basis. So here it goes: in the just reported latest data, for the week ended March 12, Treasurys held in custody by the Fed dropped to $2.855 trillion: a drop of $104.5 billion. This was the biggest drop of Treasurys held by the Fed on record, i.e., foreigners were really busy selling.

 

[joepistole]

.
.
Has the run I forecast ~7 years ago started?

Gold surged up to $1388/oz but is "only" $1379/oz now.

Ah, no. Russia has invaded one of its neighboring states and is threatening to annex it and further Russian invasions are on the horizon. The prospect of war in Europe would be devastating. The prospect of nuclear war, isn't a good thing.

 

[Billy T]

Ah, no. Russia has invaded one of its neighboring states and is threatening to annex it and further Russian invasions are on the horizon. The prospect of war in Europe would be devastating. The prospect of nuclear war, isn't a good thing.

There will never be an intentional nuclear war as no one gains - all lose big time. But my first guess that the run on the dollar might have started is wrong. What has happened is that Russian owned US Treasury paper that was in US custody has been moved out side of the US. Possibly now is in the custody of HSBC bank in London. Russia holds a total (as of late December 2013) of 138.6 billion in US treasury paper. Not only is the move of 105 billion a protective step against it being frozen, but also a "shot across the bow" telling US it, perhaps with China's aid (in self interest to get out too), can kill the dollar. The EU already knows that Russia can freeze their tails off this coming winter. Their gas can flow to China via the 48 inch pipeline that has seen very little use as China would not pay what Russia was asking. Now Russia may need to accept what China is offering.

Read more of this POV here: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/51c55c1a-ab8c-11e3-aad9-00144feab7de.html#axzz2vxrpCJy4