Thanks, I am happy to be of some assistance. Unfortunately there is a lot of misinformation out there these days and there a lot of people who are exploiting that misinformation.
The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news
- Thread starter Brian Foley
- Start date
Thanks, I am happy to be of some assistance. Unfortunately there is a lot of misinformation out there these days and there a lot of people who are exploiting that misinformation.
:roflmao:
If you ask real nicely Joe may even rent one of his slum-houses out to you (well, if you're on government assistance that is).
No. My "denial" was only telling that a particular article did not comment on my months old prediction that Fed would cease to place unique importance on the 6.5% unemployment number (as it has).
The now bold text is not true. Perhaps a simple example will prove that to you: In scaled numbers, assume 50 are employed and work force is 100. Then the employment and unemployed fraction are both 0.50
Now assume 5 drop out of the work force, (perhaps they are retiring baby boomers) making it 95 and the number of workers is then 45. Now the ratio is: 45/ 95 is 0.47, no longer is 0.50, so BL's unemployment number falls with the falling work force participation ratio, as I said. In post 716 I noted: " At 62.8 percent, the so-called participation rate matches the lowest since March 1978. "
SUMMARY: As all but you seem to know, decreasing in the participations rate lowers the BLS's computed unemployment ratio.
I did not quote him, but clearly gave the link to my quote. It came from www.Slate.com article. You are falling back on your standard reply - Try to discredit my sources, even Bloomberg in some cases, when you don't like their facts.
Except, those are not the numbers we are talking about – note the minimal impact a huge reduction (10% reduction in your example and something we have not seen in the unemployed population) has on the unemployment rate. A ten percent reduction in the unemployment population produces a 2.6% reduction in the unemployment rate. And we have not seen a 10% reduction in the unemployed population, much less the number of baby boomers who have retied. Baby Boomer retirements account for less that .146% of the labor force. So the reality is, as has been pointed out to you on numerous occasions over the years, the impact of boomer retirement on the unemployment rate is virtually nil when you use real and correct numbers.
“Individuals can draw their own conclusions from the ALG study, but one conclusion they cannot make is that there is some sort of retirement wave that is driving down labor force participation and making the unemployment rate look a lot better than it really is.” - Forbes
Except that isn’t true. There are only two components to the unemployment rate, the number of unemployed and the size of the labor force. The labor force participation metric isn’t a part of that calculation. The work force participation metric is descriptive of the labor force and not of the unemployment rate. It’s a secondary metric.
You referenced him to support your claim that the unemployment rate was losing importance a claim that you have made and denied making repeatedly. And if you used credible sources to back up your claims, you wouldn’t have to worry about me discrediting them. This may come as a surprise to you Billy T but there is a lot of misinformation on the web. Not everything you read and appeals to your cognitive biases is true or correct.
And getting back to your original claim, contrary to your claim, the unemployment number is the important number and its importance has not been in any way diminished. It has not lost any importance just because the number is getting better. The unemployment number is and will remain one of the best indicators of aggregate economic demand. Too much unemployment is indicative of too little aggregate demand, too little unemployment is indicative of too much aggregate demand. Both are equally important to the Federal Reserve and both conditions have major economic and policy consequences and ramifications. So the bottom line here is that you are wrong again, the unemployment rate never loses importance to the Federal Reserve or other market participants.
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There's probably some metric equation that meters all the relevant components of the metric. 'Ghost effects' probably wouldn't be a component of the metric. Seems like you already mentioned it. They've probably been verifying this metric since it was derived.
Shadow Stats still uses basically the pre 1994 calculations as does BLS's seldom quoted U6. The main "revision to some labor force concepts" made in January 1994 was that prior to that date, if in the interview you said you wanted a job but were unemployed, you were in the labor force. After 1994, you also had to prove you actively sought a job in the most recent 3 months. If you could not do that, you were not part of the labor force. Not unemployed.http://www.bls.gov/cps/faq.htm said:
Shadow Stats is a web site frequented by the conspiracists. It's a web site run by a single individual. And the BLS reports U6 every month with every other labor metric. It's not talked about as much because it isn't as important.
And he does more than use the pre 1994 methods. He counts employed people as unemployed. And he doesn't replicate BLS surveys. He manipulates BLS numbers in order to get numbers which are more appealing to his conspiracist subscribers.
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And these are the people (and their children) who you are sending the bill to for your "goodies now" voting. America is doomed. The bill can't be paid & China will not finance it anymore. Thin-air money will. Zimbabwe, here we come.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-05-06/early-tap-of-401-k-replaces-homes-as-american-piggy-bank.html?alcmpid= said:
And these are the people (and their children) who you are sending the bill to for your "goodies now" voting. America is doomed. The bill can't be paid & China will not finance it anymore. Thin-air money will. Zimbabwe, here we come.US debt on 6 May 2014 From: http://www.brillig.com/debt_clock/
Except a good portion of that 17.5 trillion is an accounting artifact - debt the government owes itself. And that too has been made known to on numerous occasions.
Additionally, we have had more, much more, debt in the past. And our debt !level is less than most. And the nation never needs to pay off all its debt. It just needs to be able to service its debt. Each year the value of the debt is diminished by inflation and economic growth. And since the government can always print money, there is no danger the country will be unable to service its debt. All those people who shared your Zimbabwee notions are wondering why gold fell from 1.9k to 1.2k per ounce. You, like them, don't understand economics.
From: BBC
Japan inflation rate hits 23-year high
Yeah, I'm sure your typical consumer waddling down the isle and charging a bunch of Chinese-made crap onto their credit cards (many with >18% interest rates!) really gives two f*cks about 1-2% deflation. That's why they have CC at 23% interest rates.
Oh, I think I'll never buy a smart phone or PC or iPad - you know, because I can save $15 in a years' time.
Yes, THAT is extent of these IDIOTS argument!
Not to mention, Japan has had stable prices. Not deflating prices. I've lived there on and off for over a decade - the prices of most things most consumers are buying, one year out, is not going to affect their decision to purchase. Oh, gee, these pants will be 0.23 cents cheaper in 5 years, I think I'll wait....
Japan inflation rate hits 23-year high
LOL.... it's amazing people still puke up this bullshit up and the common tax-cattle just lap at it.
Yeah, I'm sure your typical consumer waddling down the isle and charging a bunch of Chinese-made crap onto their credit cards (many with >18% interest rates!) really gives two f*cks about 1-2% deflation. That's why they have CC at 23% interest rates.
Oh, I think I'll never buy a smart phone or PC or iPad - you know, because I can save $15 in a years' time.
Yes, THAT is extent of these IDIOTS argument!
Not to mention, Japan has had stable prices. Not deflating prices. I've lived there on and off for over a decade - the prices of most things most consumers are buying, one year out, is not going to affect their decision to purchase. Oh, gee, these pants will be 0.23 cents cheaper in 5 years, I think I'll wait....
for some one so dedicated to your extremist pure unregulated free market ideology you certainly love the countries that reject your ideology while bashing the US the one country closest to it out side of states whose countries have collapsed.
A little more than 7 years ago, I predicted a run on the dollar would occur about on Halloween 2014. I set a very tight "error margin" of only 1% per year, which I will soon enter. I. e. the "window" is: 10/31/2014 + or - 0.07 x 365 days. (i.e. + or - 26 days) This prediction made so long ago was based on several things. The two most important were the damage GWB was doing the the US via needless wars, tax relief for the very rich, restrained SEC, etc. AND the demographic shift, which is shown below (and was 100% predictable seven years ago and is now being commented on by Bloomberg - see quote below.)
For example, about three years ago when the first of the baby boomers reached age 65, the Social Security tax was less than the SS payout, but the interst earned on the Treasury bonds in the SS trust fund covered the gap. Now (or in a year or two) the interest earned will not cover the gap, so some of the bonds in the SS trust fund must be cashed in to get their face value (the principle). That will be a new burden on the Treasury and of course reduce the total interest payment to the SS trust fund, so the next year even more bonds will need to be cashed in - a negative feed back system made worse by the fact the >10,000 baby boomers are retiring ever day.
Stating this this in other words: each years there are >10,000x 365 = >3,650,000 or approximately 4 million more people turning 65 and collecting on their social security and most are living many years more than their parents did. True their dying parent are ceasing to collect Social Security, but before they do so in their last few years they are costing Medicare more than in their entire prior life. Medicare cost are growing even more rapidly than Social Security costs are.
Thus Obama's success in reducing the annual US deficits will be short lived before the deficit begins to climb again. (The national debt is already about 105% of GDP, not to mention fact that state and local city debts are increasing too. - Some already not payable so in default already.) Not only that but the interest rates that must be paid on newly issued treasury bonds will soon be rising if any one but the Fed (and life insurance companies*) are to be induced to buy some. Thus the cost of carrying the ever growing debt will increase faster than the debt itself does. With the Fed and insurance companies already buying more than 80% of all new treasury issues, the US is well down the road to Zimbabwe, where no one else is buying the debt's bonds.
All this I foresaw more than seven years ago. I.e. I foresaw that the US would be at the start of a negative feed back Fiscal Death Spiral during 2014 and see no reason to modify my prediction, but admit that others may not realize this immediately and not now try to get their wealth out of dollars ASAP. I. e. my prediction may be realized during the window of today until 26 November 2014. If it is not, then I will admit I got the timing wrong, but not the that there will not soon be a run on the dollar, that rapidly (in a few months) converts to the worse ever depression in the US and EU, but not in China or the suppliers of essential imports China needs for its still growing GDP, such as Australia, Brazil, most of the SEATO countries, where trade with China is now growing 25 + or - 10% every year, and perhaps Canada if shale oil, in addition to wheat, etc. (grains), lumber and minerals is being shipped to Asia.
SUMMARY: In the next few years, less than a decade at most, there will be a drastic shift in the world's economy to Asia, with China dominating it, while US and EU struggle to recover from depression.
* Life insurance companies know statically quite accurately how many dollars they must pay out in say 2020, so they now buy US treasury bonds maturing in 2020 with total principle equal to that amount. They don't care if in 2020 when the widow collects on her $100,000 of the policy, it only will pay for one month's rent. They have met their contractual obligation to pay her $100,000 and collected interest on the Treasury Bonds they held in anticipation of the pay outs in 2020.
Perhaps an analogy will help others understand how all can seem well, safe for long periods but then rapidly collapse when exponential negative feed back is at work: When the change is proportional to the change that has already occurred, that is an exponential dynamic. For example, the interest on a debt, not paid off, with will become exponential greater if the interest due is borrowed increase the debt - makes next interest payment larger in exponential growth.
Consider a stagnate pond free of algae until some bird drops a few algae cells into it that double in number every day. You could go fish in that pond every Saturday for a year and never even notice the algae, but the next Saturday (seven doubling later) the pond may be fully covered with algae. 2^7 = 128. I.e. the prior Saturday there was less than 1% of the pond with any algae covering but this Saturday it is entirely covered with algae. That is much like the US economy. - Very little indication of serious trouble for some years, even the appearance of growing stronger with Fed's printing presses running 24/7 boosting stock prices, etc. but wham, it can all fall apart in a couple of weeks as you did not notice the initial small effects of negative feed back in the Fiscal Death Spiral, as I did, seven years ago.
Joepistole likes to (and often does) point out that he sees no indication the economic disaster I predicted 7+ years ago coming. That is exactly what I would expect and is a characteristic of an negative feed back exponential system. I may have the date when all see the coming run on the dollar wrong and are trying to get out of dollars ASAP, but I don't see any escape for the US now from the occurrence of that run-on the dollar. I. e. It is now a question of when, not if. As the thread's title says: Stand by for more worse news.
Not only is the demographic effect I foresaw seven years ago slowing the growth in consumer purchasing power, it is also slowing the growth of revenue to the government AND the pulse of retiring baby boomers is straining the social security system. I.e. with lower than expected salaries the Social Security tax collections are less, plus the payments by Social Security and Medicare etc. are increased by the Demographic shifts.http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-21/yellen-wage-gauges-blurred-by-boomer-millennial-workforce-shift.html said:
For example, about three years ago when the first of the baby boomers reached age 65, the Social Security tax was less than the SS payout, but the interst earned on the Treasury bonds in the SS trust fund covered the gap. Now (or in a year or two) the interest earned will not cover the gap, so some of the bonds in the SS trust fund must be cashed in to get their face value (the principle). That will be a new burden on the Treasury and of course reduce the total interest payment to the SS trust fund, so the next year even more bonds will need to be cashed in - a negative feed back system made worse by the fact the >10,000 baby boomers are retiring ever day.
Stating this this in other words: each years there are >10,000x 365 = >3,650,000 or approximately 4 million more people turning 65 and collecting on their social security and most are living many years more than their parents did. True their dying parent are ceasing to collect Social Security, but before they do so in their last few years they are costing Medicare more than in their entire prior life. Medicare cost are growing even more rapidly than Social Security costs are.
Thus Obama's success in reducing the annual US deficits will be short lived before the deficit begins to climb again. (The national debt is already about 105% of GDP, not to mention fact that state and local city debts are increasing too. - Some already not payable so in default already.) Not only that but the interest rates that must be paid on newly issued treasury bonds will soon be rising if any one but the Fed (and life insurance companies*) are to be induced to buy some. Thus the cost of carrying the ever growing debt will increase faster than the debt itself does. With the Fed and insurance companies already buying more than 80% of all new treasury issues, the US is well down the road to Zimbabwe, where no one else is buying the debt's bonds.
All this I foresaw more than seven years ago. I.e. I foresaw that the US would be at the start of a negative feed back Fiscal Death Spiral during 2014 and see no reason to modify my prediction, but admit that others may not realize this immediately and not now try to get their wealth out of dollars ASAP. I. e. my prediction may be realized during the window of today until 26 November 2014. If it is not, then I will admit I got the timing wrong, but not the that there will not soon be a run on the dollar, that rapidly (in a few months) converts to the worse ever depression in the US and EU, but not in China or the suppliers of essential imports China needs for its still growing GDP, such as Australia, Brazil, most of the SEATO countries, where trade with China is now growing 25 + or - 10% every year, and perhaps Canada if shale oil, in addition to wheat, etc. (grains), lumber and minerals is being shipped to Asia.
SUMMARY: In the next few years, less than a decade at most, there will be a drastic shift in the world's economy to Asia, with China dominating it, while US and EU struggle to recover from depression.
* Life insurance companies know statically quite accurately how many dollars they must pay out in say 2020, so they now buy US treasury bonds maturing in 2020 with total principle equal to that amount. They don't care if in 2020 when the widow collects on her $100,000 of the policy, it only will pay for one month's rent. They have met their contractual obligation to pay her $100,000 and collected interest on the Treasury Bonds they held in anticipation of the pay outs in 2020.
Perhaps an analogy will help others understand how all can seem well, safe for long periods but then rapidly collapse when exponential negative feed back is at work: When the change is proportional to the change that has already occurred, that is an exponential dynamic. For example, the interest on a debt, not paid off, with will become exponential greater if the interest due is borrowed increase the debt - makes next interest payment larger in exponential growth.
Consider a stagnate pond free of algae until some bird drops a few algae cells into it that double in number every day. You could go fish in that pond every Saturday for a year and never even notice the algae, but the next Saturday (seven doubling later) the pond may be fully covered with algae. 2^7 = 128. I.e. the prior Saturday there was less than 1% of the pond with any algae covering but this Saturday it is entirely covered with algae. That is much like the US economy. - Very little indication of serious trouble for some years, even the appearance of growing stronger with Fed's printing presses running 24/7 boosting stock prices, etc. but wham, it can all fall apart in a couple of weeks as you did not notice the initial small effects of negative feed back in the Fiscal Death Spiral, as I did, seven years ago.
Joepistole likes to (and often does) point out that he sees no indication the economic disaster I predicted 7+ years ago coming. That is exactly what I would expect and is a characteristic of an negative feed back exponential system. I may have the date when all see the coming run on the dollar wrong and are trying to get out of dollars ASAP, but I don't see any escape for the US now from the occurrence of that run-on the dollar. I. e. It is now a question of when, not if. As the thread's title says: Stand by for more worse news.
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Initially you were very specific on your date. Then you gave yourself a 14 month error window. I look forward to your next extension.A little more than 7 years ago, I predicted a run on the dollar would occur about on Halloween 2014. I set a very tight "error margin" of only 1% per year. I.e. which I will soon enter. I.e. the "window" is: 10/31/2014 + or - 0.07 x 365 days. (i.e. + or - 26 days) This prediction made so long ago was based on several things. The two most important was the damage GWB was doing the the US via needless wars and tax relief for the very rich AND the demographic shift, which is shown below (and 100% predictable seven years ago and now being commented on by Bloomberg - see quote below)
Note only is the demographic effect I foresaw seven years ago slowing the growth in consumer purchasing power, it is also slowing the growth of revenue to the government AND the pulse of retiring baby boomers is straining the social security system. I.e. with lower than expected salaries the Social Security tax collections are less, plus the payments by Social Security and Medicare etc. are increased by the Demographic shifts.
For example, about three years ago when the first of the baby boomers reached age 65, the Social Security tax was less than the SS payout, but the interst earned on the Treasury bonds in the SS trust fund covered the gap. Now (or in a year or two) the interest earned will not cover the gap, so some of the bonds in the SS trust fund must be cashed in to get their face value (the principle). That will of course reduce the total interest payment to the SS trust fund, so the next year even more bonds will need to be cashed in - a negative feed back system made worse by the fact the >10,000 baby boomers are retiring ever day.
Stating this this in other words: each years there are >10,000x 365 = >3,650,000 or approximately 4 million more people turning 65 and collecting on their social security and most are living many years more than their parents did. True their dying parent are ceasing to collect Social Security, but before they do so in their last few years they are costing Medicare more than in their entire prior life. Medicare cost are growing even more rapidly than Social Security costs are.
Thus Obama's success in reducing the annual US deficits will be short lived before the deficit begins to climb again (already about 105% of GDP) Not only that but the interest rates that must be paid on newly issued treasury bonds will soon be rising if any one but the Fed (and life insurance companies*) are to be induced to buy some. Thus the cost of carrying the ever growing debt will increase faster than the debt itself does.
All this I foresaw seven years ago. I.e. I foresaw that the US would be at the start of a negative feed back Fiscal Death Spiral about during 2014 and see no reason to modify my prediction, but admit that others may not realize this immediately and not now try to get their wealth out of dollars ASAP. I. e. my prediction may be realized during the window of today until 26 November 2014. If it does not, then I will admit I got the timing wrong, but not the that there will not soon be a run on the dollar, that rapidly (in a few months) converts to the worse ever depression in the US and EU, but not China or the suppliers of essential imports China needs for its still growing GDP, such as Australia, Brazil, most of the SEATO countries, where trade with China is now growing 25 + or - 10% every year, and perhaps Canada if shale oil, in addition to lumber and mineral is being shipped to Asia.
SUMMARY: In the next few years, a decade at most, there will be a drastic shift in the world's economy to Asia, with China dominating it, while US and EU struggle to recover from depression.
Indeed. One is reminded of Futilitist, who predicted TEOTWAWKI beginning last summer (that's when the riots would start) due to a worldwide economic collapse when the oil ran out, which would certainly happen by the end of 2013. Ironically he stopped posting shortly before the end of 2013. (Although he may be back under another name, making new predictions.)
No we have been thru this before; THERE HAS NEVER BEEN ANY EXTENTION. I asked you to quote the post where it was made, and you could not, so I went back myself and reproduced post from each of the prior years (except two) Then without proof you said I had made the extention during one of those two years. So I again went back and found some of my posts made during those two years. You are a liar - plain and simple. Your prior claim I "moved the goal posts" (into the more distant future) has been proven false. I again challenge your to quote me making an extension.
I will not again go to the trouble of finding a date giving post again for every prior year (that took several hours as Sciforum's search stinks.), but here is how the date got firmly set:
Read Baron Max's 8/10/07 post Number 2, given in full above your self here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...cycle-quot-)&p=1502292&viewfull=1#post1502292
Here is my post Number 4, replying to him on the same date:
" It is true that I have been predicting dollar collapse and deep depression for US and EU for several years, but I have always said it would be several years yet before the run on the dollar send US and EU into deep depression. Everything is on schedule or actually moving closer to the present than my earlier predictions.
When I first realized the risk, about 10 years ago, I wrote my book, Dark Visitor,* hoping to encourage more students to select the hard sciences instead of the law and business programs. (The CURRENT greater earnings potential of these areas has made too few select the programs needed to keep US in the lead - in technology Asia already leads. In next generation Asia will lead in science also. Most of these money hungry students will end up without the jobs they expected. Wall Street is already contracting /firing brokers and moving back office to India. London just recently passed the US as the world's main financial center. When dollar collapses, this trend will greatly intensify and "Wall Street" will almost be a "ghost town.")
After GWB was in office about one year, with destruction of Clinton's budget surpluses, I got scared of the US economy's future, and began posting warnings here, trying to reverse the disaster GWB was leading the US into.** With his second election, the invasion of Iraq, etc. I began to set a time table for the collapse of the dollar of "in about a decade."
After Greenspan's foolish increase in liquidity, (resulting in historically low interest rates and unsustainable surge in home prices) and GWB's continued "twin deficits", his lack of understanding or the tribal nature of the middle east "nations" and his big business tilt against the interest of the population, etc. I began to predict the collapse of the dollar depression in "less than a decade"
When confidence in the dollar began to sag, I got most of my wealth into ADRs to protect myself and held in dollars mainly already high-risk early-stage drug development stocks (about 40 for diversification as most will fail to get drug to market). My ADRs are mainly companies in Brazil and India as I do not trust China or Russia. Best is SBS, Sao Paulo's water/sewer company, up about 900% now in dollars and about 350% in Brazilian Real. SBS still pays high dividends, with double digit growth of income, etc. Many people are now also getting out of dollars, but it is not yet a run on the dollar.
When the sagging confidence in the dollar forced up US interest rates (US must pay higher interest to persuade foreigners to buy treasure debt - and even at current rates they have had a net loss in purchasing power for more than a year, so rates will go even higher still.) I realized that the collapse was nearer than I had thought, so began to predict it as due "in 5 + or - 3 years."
In view of what happened to global wealth yesterday as the US mortgage problem spread beyond the US, I think I can safely move my prediction of the dollar collapse a year closer, so now I predict it as: "in 4 + or - 3 years"
I continue to think, as stated in first post this thread, that central banks will be able to prop up this house of cards they have built for one more 6L cycle. (The first cycle I remember was the rescue of hedge fund LTCM. Next cycle was the stemming of the "dot.com" fall out, and now, I expect a successful containment of the "sub-prime" spread will occur with little global damage.)
SUMMARY:
It looks like things are going as I predicted and expected for the last 5+ years. You are premature and foolish to think otherwise. You should be trying to protect your wealth from the approaching dollar collapse. "
Read post 4 for your self so you see it is exactly as quoted above, here: http://www.sciforums.com/showthread...cycle-quot-)&p=1502474&viewfull=1#post1502474
Yes I moved the goal post: CLOSER TO THE PRESENT by one year, NOT INTO THE MORE DISTANT FUTURE. I.e. I began predicting the collapse of the dollar "in about decade" (see red text above) a year or two before the post of 8/10/07 quoted above. I.e. say that was done in 2005. I.e. I had the end of the predicted window for the run would be in 2015. Then in about 2006 made it "less than decade" (see second red text above). Then in the above 8/10/07 post moved the last date of the run to be 2007 + 5 (+ or - 3). I. e. 2007 + 5+ 3 = 2015, still for the end of the window. I.e. before or by 2015. In still later posts I made it very specific and moved it even closer to the present as "Halloween 2014," where it has remained without change. I chose Halloween as it is a "scary time" most of the serious economy crashes have in fact been in October or at least the fall in the Northern Hemisphere.
And Yes as the end of window date approached, I have several times greatly reduced my "margin of error" (down from 14 months to now only 26 days!)
PS to billvon: I can't control to whom my posts reminded you, but don't plan on just disappearing if and when my predicted run on the dollar does not occur within my Halloween 2014 + or - 26 days window. (I have always admitted it could occur "tomorrow" if some terrible economic event happens.) but the "Margin of Error" on the timing is now only + or - 26 days. I.e. I will admit I got the timing wrong, if the run has not happened by 27 November 2014. Please don't take as truth what ever Joepistole posts. Check him. He often puts words in others mouths, lies, invents "facts" and claims to be quoting from a reputable source like Bloomberg. I called him out on one of those claims of quoting from Bloomberg 17 times by asking for the link to Bloomberg - he never gave it - he could not as he invented the quote. If you request it, I will dig up some of the 17 times I asked him for the link.
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Except I am not. And your reliance on ad hominem and other illogical argument does not bode well for you.
I am glad to see you narrow your window, now down to 52 days. But that doesn't change the fact you selectively cherry pick, revise and make logical and factual errors. Time will tell and very soon.
Good; you often post some interesting stuff. Perhaps if your prediction does not come to pass that will inform your future posts.
To Billvon: Please be sure to read the full PS to you I made at end of post 735.
BTW: if the run on the dollar does not take place within my now very narrow window, I am sure Joepistole (and perhaps others) will point that out.
I am; however, already less active here than I was a year ago as I now post at two other sites and am in the process of writing a provisional patent application, related to global warming.
BTW: if the run on the dollar does not take place within my now very narrow window, I am sure Joepistole (and perhaps others) will point that out.
I am; however, already less active here than I was a year ago as I now post at two other sites and am in the process of writing a provisional patent application, related to global warming.
When is a collapse a collapse?
In North Korea they sometimes murder and eat their own children (or those that venture away from their parents, that is to say: are sold off BY their parents as stew-meat for State 'vouchers' / fiat currency they use to pay for services - like a cup of rice). Have they 'collapsed' economically?
We sell T-Bonds on our children - it's much more civil. Oh, and we obtain State 'vouchers' that pay for State licensed day supervision centeres where mother's can put their children in at aged 3 weeks from 6AM - 7PM. Does normalizing to child abuse qualify as economic or social 'collapse'?
How about when those children are shoveled from State sanctioned Day Supervision Centers into a State-run Government Schools where their parental bonding issues combined with the perfectly natural inability to sit at a State-regulated desk for 8 hours in a mind-destroying farce of a learning environment lands them in to see a State-licensed psychotherapist who promptly diagnoses them with ADHA and proscribes State-regulated antipyschotics proven to have zero long term efficacy. Is that child (now a teen 'cutter' with an eating disorder) an example of social or economic collapse?
When said cutter graduates as a functional illiterate, joins the murdertary and rapes 14 year of children in Iraq to the laughter of his fellow sociopaths while coating civil cities in plumbs of radioactive dust - is THAT social or economic collapse?
How about our gang-bang inner city Government-regulated and run Public Slums where 80% of the kids cannot read and write? Social or economic collapse?
The 23% of American children living in poverty whose parents are utterly dependent on the State. Social or economic collapse?
The dollar collapsed decades ago.
Americans simply learned to enjoy, relish even, the taste of child-soup.
In North Korea they sometimes murder and eat their own children (or those that venture away from their parents, that is to say: are sold off BY their parents as stew-meat for State 'vouchers' / fiat currency they use to pay for services - like a cup of rice). Have they 'collapsed' economically?
We sell T-Bonds on our children - it's much more civil. Oh, and we obtain State 'vouchers' that pay for State licensed day supervision centeres where mother's can put their children in at aged 3 weeks from 6AM - 7PM. Does normalizing to child abuse qualify as economic or social 'collapse'?
How about when those children are shoveled from State sanctioned Day Supervision Centers into a State-run Government Schools where their parental bonding issues combined with the perfectly natural inability to sit at a State-regulated desk for 8 hours in a mind-destroying farce of a learning environment lands them in to see a State-licensed psychotherapist who promptly diagnoses them with ADHA and proscribes State-regulated antipyschotics proven to have zero long term efficacy. Is that child (now a teen 'cutter' with an eating disorder) an example of social or economic collapse?
When said cutter graduates as a functional illiterate, joins the murdertary and rapes 14 year of children in Iraq to the laughter of his fellow sociopaths while coating civil cities in plumbs of radioactive dust - is THAT social or economic collapse?
How about our gang-bang inner city Government-regulated and run Public Slums where 80% of the kids cannot read and write? Social or economic collapse?
The 23% of American children living in poverty whose parents are utterly dependent on the State. Social or economic collapse?
The dollar collapsed decades ago.
Americans simply learned to enjoy, relish even, the taste of child-soup.
Nice demagoguery for the ignorant. But since it is demagoguery, it isn't true. If the dollar collapsed you wouldn't be able to use it. In fact the dollar has been appreciating.