The trap of dogmatic skepticism






And this one

 
But also not alien technology or reverse-enigneered technology.

You understand the difference between saying "we've found no evidence of alien technology" and saying "it's not alien technology"? They are simply saying they've found no evidence for it. And yet the metallic spheres remain a total mystery, so that possible explanation remains on the table.
 
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This distraction has no place in this thread. Take that nonsense to a different thread.

He recently posted a comment about a passenger ship haunted by the ghost of a little girl in the UAPs thread.

It's part of this thread which the OP makes clear is about dogmatic skeptics and fringe topics in general. The example given there was regarding Sheldrake's evidence for PSI at a recent debate he had, not about uaps. So the topic of the paranormal is totally at home here and that evidence I posted for it was specifically in response to Pinball's statements about the paranormal and how we confirm it.
 
You understand the difference between saying "we've found no evidence of alien technology" and saying "it's not alien technology"? They are simply saying they've found no evidence for it. And yet the metallic spheres remain a mystery, so that explanation remains on the table.

Right. Saying that they have no conclusive evidence that any UAPs are in fact extraterrestrial technology is very different than saying that they do have conclusive evidence that they aren't. (What would conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin even look like?)

I personally think that there is credible evidence (albeit not totally conclusive evidence) that is at least consistent with an extraterrestrial technological origin. (Radar returns, multiple visual sightings by trained observers, photography all appearing to corroborate each other.)

It seems pretty clear that there are unidentified things physically in the sky. Some subset of these (a minority) appear to display what we might call 'anomalous' behavior, performance seemingly far in excess of today's aerospace engineering state of the art. And if there are in fact physical objects in the sky behaving in such a way, then extraterrestrial technology remains on the table as one of the hypothetical possibilities. It wouldn't have been confirmed, but it wouldn't be excluded either.

Of course it remains possible that the ascriptions of anomalous behavior are all mistaken and false. That remains a hypothetical possibility too. But just like the extraterrestrial hypothesis, the dismissive 'It's all a big mistake' hypothesis requires evidence. The error hypothesis can't just be assumed to be true as one's unevidenced default claim unless those who don't agree can somehow exclude all possibility of error (which will never happen with fallible human beings).

So while I won't say that I believe that (some of the) UAPs are extraterrestral (I certainly don't), I don't believe that all of them aren't either. I hold it open as a viable possibility.
 
But don't pretend you are contributing anything at all to the scientific investigation and theorization of the phenomenon itself.
What phenomenon?

You do remember what UAP stands for now don't you? Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. THAT phenomenon.
IOW, you can't really analyze and find answers about something you basically deny exists.
Pardon me? It sounds like you're alleging that there is something or other than exists, which skeptics/scientists deny exists, but which somebody else (you?) has proven exists.

Are you saying skeptics now accept the existence of uaps--defined as unidentified anomalous phenomena? That they have finally embraced that these uaps are truly anomalous and not some mistaken mundane objects? Great! Welcome to the club!
 
...credible evidence (albeit not totally conclusive evidence) that is at least consistent with an extraterrestrial technological origin.
This makes no sense.

Your statement boils down to "X is at least consistent with Y".
Except we have exactly zero examples of Y to compare X to, so there is no comparison.

It is also "at least consistent" with Wakandan technology from the depths of Africa - another explanation that has zero examples for comparison (because in this case: fiction).

I'd surmise that your opinions here are prejudiced because you a priori believe in extraterrestrials visiting us, and therefore it is easy to slip into such circular logic. "These look like all the other alien technology things we've been seeing". That's tautologically invalid logic.
 
This makes no sense.

Your statement boils down to "X is at least consistent with Y".
Except we have exactly zero examples of Y to compare X to, so there is no comparison.

If we assume, ex hypothesi, that physical objects in our atmosphere are behaving in ways that nothing on Earth can match, and we do seem to have (in my opinion reasonably credible but not conclusive) evidence that might be the case, then that would certainly seem to be consistent with the hypothesis that the observed objects aren't from around here.

The point that I am making is not that we know that they are extraterrestial technology, but merely that it is possible that they are. And that possibility should be taken seriously, not met with insults, ridicule and screams of "woo".
 
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If we assume, ex hypothesi, that physical objects in our atmosphere are behaving in ways that nothing on Earth can match
appear to be behaving...

One example: no one clocked a Tic tac going supersonic. They saw a tic tac here and then saw a tic tac there. Some have chosen to interpret that as one object, moving very fast.

hen that would certainly seem to be consistent with the hypothesis that the observed objects aren't from around here.
Sure but it's the most unlikely of possibilities (far end of the 'exotic' scale). It should be given proportionate consideration.

For example: there are way way more metallic spheres known here on Earth that have mundane explanations than there are metallic spheres ever found in space.
Why waste time looking at things that have zero precedent (space orbs) when we could be looking at Earthly orbs? There's a zillion of them.




that possibility should be taken seriously, not met with insults, ridicule and screams of "woo".
Or screams of The Big Lie, which you are still promulgating as of earlier today. Care to address that?

You set a bar of behavior of others that you do not rise to yourself. There's a word for that. Care to prove it wrong?
 
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If we assume, ex hypothesi, that physical objects in our atmosphere are behaving in ways that nothing on Earth can match


to be behaving...

One example: no one clocked a Tic tac going supersonic. They saw a tic tac here and then saw a tic tac there. Some have chosen to interpret that as one object, moving very fast.

"Physicist Kevin Knuth, along with Robert M. Powell and Peter A. Reali, analyzed the Tic Tac data and wrote a paper titled Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles. The paper makes it very clear that the data did not give credence to prosaic explanations such as advanced military technology or atmospheric glitches. Instead, the data revealed shocking and unexplainable physics were at play.

Professor Knuth recently went on the All Things Unexplained podcast to discuss these findings. He revealed the following jaw-dropping physics of the USS Nimitiz' Tic Tacs:

  • Upper speed: 45,000 mph.
  • Size of an F18.
  • Observed on radar for approximately 2 weeks.
  • Appeared at 80,000 feet and dropped to 28,000 feet.
  • Dropped from 28,000 feet to sea level (approximately 5 miles) in 0.78 seconds.
  • No fireballs.
  • No sonic booms.
  • 13,000 gigawatts of power would have been required to make its maneuvers, more than the nuclear output of the United States.
  • The movements of a Tic Tac UFO should have released the energy equivalent of 250 Tomahawk cruise missiles going off at once.
Regardless of various interpretations of the Tic Tacs, this physics analysis should be a wake-up call for everyone. There are forces at play in our sky that are beyond our understanding. Professor Knuth went on to add that when he asked a friend that used to work for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) how many UFOs are active in our skies at any one time, the friend said we don’t know."--- https://www.meer.com/en/79187-uss-nimitz-tic-tac-ufo-unveiling-inexplicable-physics
 
"Physicist Kevin Knuth, along with Robert M. Powell and Peter A. Reali, analyzed the Tic Tac data and wrote a paper titled Estimating Flight Characteristics of Anomalous Unidentified Aerial Vehicles. The paper makes it very clear that the data did not give credence to prosaic explanations such as advanced military technology or atmospheric glitches. Instead, the data revealed shocking and unexplainable physics were at play.

Professor Knuth recently went on the All Things Unexplained podcast to discuss these findings. He revealed the following jaw-dropping physics of the USS Nimitiz' Tic Tacs:

  • Upper speed: 45,000 mph.
  • Size of an F18.
  • Observed on radar for approximately 2 weeks.
  • Appeared at 80,000 feet and dropped to 28,000 feet.
  • Dropped from 28,000 feet to sea level (approximately 5 miles) in 0.78 seconds.
  • No fireballs.
  • No sonic booms.
  • 13,000 gigawatts of power would have been required to make its maneuvers, more than the nuclear output of the United States.
  • The movements of a Tic Tac UFO should have released the energy equivalent of 250 Tomahawk cruise missiles going off at once.
Regardless of various interpretations of the Tic Tacs, this physics analysis should be a wake-up call for everyone. There are forces at play in our sky that are beyond our understanding. Professor Knuth went on to add that when he asked a friend that used to work for the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) how many UFOs are active in our skies at any one time, the friend said we don’t know."--- https://www.meer.com/en/79187-uss-nimitz-tic-tac-ufo-unveiling-inexplicable-physics
The paper MR refers to can be found here:


A second revised version of the paper that also discusses a much earlier 1951 case and a subsequent 1986 case is here:

 
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The paper MR refers to can be found here:


A second revised version of the paper that also discusses a much earlier 1951 case and a subsequent 1986 case is here:

OK, so this is a derived report; it is derived from the original Navy report on the tic tac events. It will have to be fact-checked to ensure it contains only accurate uninterpreted details from the original.

(You'll note for example that only a half dozen of the bullets MR lists, above, are empirical observations, while the rest are derived suppositions (such as power output) by the authors, not by the Navy. They are conclusions, not premises.)

Then I can go through it and analyze it (because that's what skeptics do, is analyze).

I have since lost track of the original Navy report on the tic tac events. I would be greatly obliged if anyone has a link to the full report handy.
 
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I was struck by this:

While the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis can be neither verified nor ruled out at this time, it is useful to consider whether the characteristics of these UAVs tend to support or rule out the Extraterrestrial Hypothesis. Given the estimated accelerations of these UAVs, it is useful to consider the time it would take them to travel interstellar distances. Figure 7A illustrates how long it would take a craft accelerating at 1000g to reach various percentages of the speed of light. In just less than an hour, a craft accelerating at a constant 1000g would reach 10% of the speed of light, which is NASA’s goal for the planned 2069 mission to Proxima Centuri [33] (Alpha Centuri system). In less than three hours, the same craft would reach 30% of the speed of light. Such a craft accelerating at a constant 1000g for half of the trip and decelerating at the same rate for the remaining half would reach Proxima Centuri within 5 days’ ship time due to the fact that it would have been traveling at relativistic speeds for most of the trip (Figure 7B). However, for those of us on Earth, or anyone on Proxima Centuri b, the trip would take over four years. As a comparison, a craft accelerating at 100g would reach 10% of the speed of light in 8.5hrs, 30% of the speed of light in just more than a day, and Proxima Centuri in a month and a half.

What's more, a ship accelerating/decelerating at a sustained 1000 Gs could reach the Trappist system (39.17 light years away) in 7.5 days ship-time. (Source Table 3 in the second paper) Clearly, distance and ship-time do not scale the same way, since it would take only 50% more subjective time to travel 9x the distance. The distance traveled v. ship time graph would seem to curve upward as greater and greater relativistic velocities are reached and might conceivably approach an asymptotic limit-singularity, at which travel of any cosmic distance might take essentially the same travel-time from the point of view of the ship. (Which might be hard to control, if a pico-second uncertainty in control parameters could put you off target by 20 galaxies.) While this kind of hypothetical scenario would make return to the world one left pretty much impossible, it would make interstellar travel (and time travel into the future) a real possibility.

Of course 1000G relative accelerations might suggest some kind of inertia dampening ability, and given inertia's close association with mass, and hence with relativity, there might conceivably be additional wild-cards that we are unaware of.

Before anyone has a conniption fit, this is just a speculative exercise into what super high accelerations might conceivably suggest.
 
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Sure they have.
That is a blatant lie. If somebody had confirmed that, in fact, one of the reported "metallic orbs" was, in fact, metallic and did, in fact, travel at Mach 2, and was, in fact, an example of extraterrestrial technology, you would be able to cite the relevant source(s) of these findings. The fact that you do not (can not) speaks volumes. That you are willing to tell a bald-faced lie like this one with no sense of shame reveals you to be nothing but a troll.
I'm not going to keep repeating this while you continue to lie about it.
I have not told any lies about what the AARO found or what Kirkpatrick said. The only person who has done that consistently, over a period of about a year now, on this forum, is you. You are fully aware of this, and anybody else here can read back over the UAP thread and confirm it for themselves. I have merely held you to account for your trolling dishonesty and I have exposed your lies repeatedly.

I have now warned you four times, explicitly, not to accuse me of telling lies unless you can document specific instances of my lies. Since you know you cannot do that, you do not even make a pretence of being able to do it. Yet you still accuse. Repeatedly. There can be few clearer signs of deliberate, targeted trolling. With this latest behaviour, you have merely exposed yourself again. You're not even a clever troll.

But one more time for the record: the AARO reviewed hundreds of videos of uaps and found that the typical profile for them was a metallic sphere 1-4 meters in diameter that flies at speeds up to Mach 2 at 30,000 ft and that are seen all over the world.
As you are fully aware, this error of yours was first discussed and corrected by myself and others here back in July last year. I will link to some relevant posts in a moment.

It is not credible that you are so stupid that you can't tell the difference between the AARO describing some common UAP features that have been reported to it and it confirming that the reported features actually correspond to real-world characteristics identified and confirmed in actual catalogued physical objects. Not after this distinction has been pointed out to you many times in simple language that an average child could understand.
That's pretty damn specific for not confirming their existence.
You deliberately conflate confirmation of the existence of reports with confirmation of the existence of flying metallic spheres that travel at Mach 2. You are trying to pull the wool over the eyes of naive readers. Like the troll that you are.
They even provided a few examples of said metallic spheres in some videos they showed to them.
They provided some examples of videos in which things that look a bit like metallic spheres are visible.

They provided no examples of captured alien spherical metallic craft to Congress, as you are fully aware.
Not "looked a bit like" or "estimated/guessed/speculated" anything. You're making up weasel words they never said.
No. I was correct. None of this "Mach 2" business has ever been confirmed. No metallic spheres have been captured. All of it is in doubt. All we have are some anecdotes and some video footage of some unidentified things that look a bit like metallic spheres. You are fully aware of this. If you weren't aware one year ago, you've certainly had time to join the adult conversation over the past year - an opportunity you have consistently turned down with your court jester act.
The AARO reviewed hundreds of reports AND videos of these things. They confirmed their existence.
Again the conflation. This can't be accidental. It can't be mere stupidity. That's just not plausible, one year on. No, this is knowingly telling lies.

As you are fully aware, the AARO has confirmed the existence of many reports. It has explicitly also confirmed that it has found no evidence of alien technology. It has collected no actual metallic spheres that fly at Mach 2.
That's why he could say with confidence that "we see these all over the world". And we have videos and photos of these same metallic spheres, So quit making shit up, It's a fact now you'll just have to get used to.
You will stop making accusations that you refuse to even try to support, one way or another.

I have made nothing up. If you accuse me of making something up again and you cannot demonstrate that I made it up, you will be officially warned yet again.
 
A reminder of past events in the matter of Magical Realist...

Let's cast our minds back to May 2023. That was when MR first brought up the topic of Kirkpatrick's testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee. Here's my post, from back then:
--------

“What we have done is reduce the most typically reported UAP characteristics to these fields, mostly around 1 to 4 meters wide,” said Sean M. Kirkpatrick, director of AARO, who appeared in front of a subcommittee of the Senate Armed Services Committee, describing how UAPs mostly appear. “Silver. Translucent. Metallic. 10,000 to 30,000 feet [in the air] with apparent velocities from the stationary to mach to no thermal exhausts usually detected.”--- https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kx...drone-spotted-metallic-orb-ufo-in-middle-east
This is a summary of "the most typically reported UAP characteristics".

It is not a summary of "the most typically confirmed UAP characteristics".
No...No confabulation of multiple incidents. It's a general description of the metallic sphere uap as seen in many accounts and photos and videos. And it's solid confirmation of what many eyewitnesses have claimed to see. Simple as that.
Accounts or reports of a thing are not solid confirmation of the thing. Simple as that.
---------

Yazata, at that time, even posted a summary slide from Kirkpatrick's briefing. See this post.

The slide is titled "UAP reporting trends" [my emphasis]. There is a column with the heading "Typically-reported UAP characteristics". Interestingly, the slide does not list "metallic" under the appearance characteristics. It lists "white, silver, translucent". I note that, in fact, only one of these three reported 'typical' statistics would typically fit the description 'metallic'.

The important point - which of course I drew to MR's attention back in May 2023 - was that these are all clearly descriptions of what the AARO saw in reports of UAPs. They explicitly reference reports in multiple places. They never refer to confirmed characteristics of actual objects. How could they possibly do that, anyway? All of these things were unidentified by Kirkpatrick and the AARO.

Of course, Magical Realist continued to play the village idiot. He experimented with how to mince words. He also started to tell lies. He claimed that "The Pentagon anomaly committee has since confirmed the observed existence of metallic spheres flying in the sky in ways that defy conventional craft or balloons." (see, for instance, this post, where I pulled MR up on this point).

Note the weasel words carefully. MR doesn't write that the committee "confirmed the existence of" the spheres. No, he is careful to maintain the plausible deniability that the troll always aims for. So he writes that what was confirmed was the "observed existence". What does that mean? Does he mean that the only thing that was confirmed was that somebody reported observing something they couldn't identify? Or does he seek to imply that the Pentagon confirmed that there are actually metallic flying spheres that can do Mach 2? The troll has refused ever to clarify this. Each time he is asked, he deflects. Why? Because he is fully aware that neither the Pentagon, the AARO, nor anybody else investigating this stuff on behalf of the US government or military has ever confirmed that they have found a single example of a real-world Mach 2 flying metallic sphere.

Interestingly, something the AARO has confirmed is that it has confirmed that at least some of these reported so-called "metallic spheres" were, in fact, later positively identified as conventional aircraft. This is a fact that, in more recent times, even Magical Realist has conceded. But he continues to assert, without any evidence, that some of the remaining unresolved reports constitute proof of extraterrestrial technology or something equivalently "extraordinary".

In my post #9113, back in July 2023, I pointed out (again) the following to Magical Realist:

The slide you refer to was a summary of the most often reported characteristics of UAP sightings. The "traits" listed on the slide refer to commonly-reported traits of UAPs in general.

This does not mean that every reported UAP has all these traits, or even most of them. It does not imply that all reported UAPs are spheres, or that all of them are 1-4 metres across, etc.

This slide is not about any individual report. It is collation of the most common kinds of things that are reported.

Nobody - not Kirkpatrick or anybody else, except you - is saying that most UAPs are 1-4 metre-diameter metallic spheres, or anything like that. That would imply that these unidentified objects have been identified. But this presentation was about the reported characteristics of a range of unidentified phenomena.
In the same post, I suggested that Magical Realist might consider being truthful about what Kirkpatrick said and about what the AARO found.

Since then, what has the troll done? The troll has continued to lie and to troll. The troll, as trolls do, has ignored previous corrections of his apparent errors and stupidities, only to re-appear time and again making the same false claims.

Back in July 2023, I walked Yazata through some of MR's lies and evasions on this matter, in depth. Interested readers can review my post #9120. Yazata did not acknowledge any of that, of course, which is consistent with an increasing pattern of intellectual dishonesty on this topic that we're seeing more and more of from him, of late. Witness his refusal to engage with any of my recent challenges to his position on the topic of the military UAP reports, and his refusal to engage with other skeptics such as DaveC. Yazata, of course, has pushing his own Big Lie for a while. But that's a story for a different post.
 
Moderator note: Magical Realist has been warned for continuing to troll.

As a multiple repeat offender in this regard, he will again be taking a short break from sciforums.
 
Right. Saying that they have no conclusive evidence that any UAPs are in fact extraterrestrial technology is very different than saying that they do have conclusive evidence that they aren't. (What would conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin even look like?)
In many cases, as you know, conclusive evidence has been found that reported UAPs were not, in fact, extraterrestrial technology. Even the troll, Magical Realist, admits that the AARO found that hundreds of the reported "metallic spheres" were not of extraterrestrial origin.

What would conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin look like? Well, if a spaceship were to land on the White House lawn tomorrow and an alien were to emerge and give a press conference about making the journey from a distance star, and competent people were able to confirm that (a) the spaceship was markedly different in design and operation from any human-produced vehicles, and (b) that the alien is question, upon medical examination, was found to be organic and yet unrelated to any terrestrial lifeform, I'd consider that more or less conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin.

What would it take to convince you? I would have thought that you would require a lower burden of proof that I would, given your inclination towards believing in the little green men.
I personally think that there is credible evidence (albeit not totally conclusive evidence) that is at least consistent with an extraterrestrial technological origin. (Radar returns, multiple visual sightings by trained observers, photography all appearing to corroborate each other.)
How did you get from radar returns, visual sightings and photograph to "extraterrestrial technological origin"? That seems like a huge and unjustified leap of faith to me, rather than the thoughtful analysis of a self-declared super-skeptic who isn't sure that even science should be trusted.
It seems pretty clear that there are unidentified things physically in the sky.
More accurately, there are things that certain people were unable to identify at the time. There are also many cases in which the extant evidence appears insufficient to enable careful rational thinkers to reach a consensus on what the most likely cause of the evidence was, so far.
Some subset of these (a minority) appear to display what we might call 'anomalous' behavior, performance seemingly far in excess of today's aerospace engineering state of the art.
Yes. Note the important words "appear to" in that sentence. That, of course, is a matter of opinion, since the same thing can "appear to" be different to different observers.
And if there are in fact physical objects in the sky behaving in such a way, then extraterrestrial technology remains on the table as one of the hypothetical possibilities. It wouldn't have been confirmed, but it wouldn't be excluded either.
Yes. And so?
Of course it remains possible that the ascriptions of anomalous behavior are all mistaken and false.
Indeed.
But just like the extraterrestrial hypothesis, the dismissive 'It's all a big mistake' hypothesis requires evidence. The error hypothesis can't just be assumed to be true as one's unevidenced default claim unless those who don't agree can somehow exclude all possibility of error (which will never happen with fallible human beings).
The default answer on all these reports is "I don't know" - right up until the time comes when we make the ID and know.

It would be a mistake to default to "The thing can't possibly have been an alien spaceship." We're all in agreement with you on that, despite the fact that you act like this point hasn't been acknowledged and agreed with over and over by every skeptic on this forum.
So while I won't say that I believe that (some of the) UAPs are extraterrestral (I certainly don't), I don't believe that all of them aren't either. I hold it open as a viable possibility.
Like every other skeptic on this forum.

Why won't you just admit that you're no better than the rest of us? You're no more open minded or insightful than any of the other skeptics here, when it comes to UAPs. The main difference is that you're less willing than most to actually want to investigate, to see whether we can solve some of the "problem" cases. You like the mystery. You seem uninterested in the resolution, unless it turns out to be the little green men or something equally extraordinary. Actually, though, you ought to pay a bit more attention to all the cases that turn out to be ordinary, mundane things, despite the fact that they were touted by some as extraordinary and probably extraterrestrial. That's a data point you shouldn't ignore, in itself.
If we assume, ex hypothesi, that physical objects in our atmosphere are behaving in ways that nothing on Earth can match, and we do seem to have (in my opinion reasonably credible but not conclusive) evidence that might be the case, then that would certainly seem to be consistent with the hypothesis that the observed objects aren't from around here.
Wouldn't it be better not to assume that reported objects are behaving like nothing on Earth? Aren't you prejudicing the entire investigation by starting with that particular assumption?

Strange that you want to put up this straw man of the "dogmatic skeptic" who is too closed-minded to consider even the possibility that it's Men from Mars, while it is actually you who is starting every investigation with an obvious bias.
The point that I am making is not that we know that they are extraterrestial technology, but merely that it is possible that they are.
Did anybody here ever suggest that it is impossible that they are?

You won't answer this question, will you? Why? Because you've decided to be intellectually dishonest about this. You give the troll, Magical Realist, a free pass to lie his little head off, and you're willing to tell your Big Lie about the supposedly closed-minded skeptics that you keep telling. But you're not brave enough to try defending that lie, are you? I think it's because you're smart enough to recognise that it's a weak and indefensible lie.

You ought to try to rehabilitate your reputation. The first step would be to stop telling the lie. Be honest about what you believe and about what you would like to believe regarding UAPs. Be honest about what the other skeptics here have told you that they (we) believe, and about what we've said we'd be happy to believe. Have an honest, open discussion. Stop ignoring and hoping that you can get away with telling your lie.
And that possibility should be taken seriously, not met with insults, ridicule and screams of "woo".
I won't repeat myself. You weren't intellectually honest enough to reply to my previous comments on this. I don't suppose you will be this time either. I guess we'll see.
 
You do remember what UAP stands for now don't you?
What a troll you are. I took your village idiot act at face value and repeatedly educated you on what the acronym UAP stands for and what it means, as you are fully aware. You have only ever tried to twist it to mean something that it does not.
Are you saying skeptics now accept the existence of uaps--defined as unidentified anomalous phenomena?
What didn't you understand, in the series of posts that I wrote to you and Yazata, just a day or two ago?

What a troll you are.
 
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Before anyone has a conniption fit, this is just a speculative exercise into what super high accelerations might conceivably suggest.
Nobody here has once has a "conniption fit" about any theoretical discussions like that. As you are fully aware.

Look, it's fine if you've taken a personal disliking to me, or to some of the other skeptics here. It can be hard to have your unreasonableness exposed - especially when it is something you believe is a defining personal characteristic that you pride yourself on. But you really ought to address that problem at its source, rather than flailing around taking pathetic jabs at people you're too afraid to call out by name or engage with in an adult discussion.
 
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You won't answer this question, will you? Why? Because you've decided to be intellectually dishonest about this. You give the troll, Magical Realist, a free pass to lie his little head off, and you're willing to tell your Big Lie about the supposedly closed-minded skeptics that you keep telling. But you're not brave enough to try defending that lie, are you? I think it's because you're smart enough to recognise that it's a weak and indefensible lie.

You ought to try to rehabilitate your reputation. The first step would be to stop telling the lie. Be honest about what you believe and about what you would like to believe regarding UAPs. Be honest about what the other skeptics here have told you that they (we) believe, and about what we've said we'd be happy to believe. Have an honest, open discussion. Stop ignoring and hoping that you can get away with telling your lie.

I won't repeat myself. You weren't intellectually honest enough to reply to my previous comments on this. I don't suppose you will be this time either. I guess we'll see.
I confess, I too am getting exasperated with Yazata. He responds just often enough to suck me in to thinking he'll engage, and then when I do engage he goes utterly quiet. I put a lot of effort into responding to his posts, and I have some genuine questions I'd like to engage with him on.

It's kind of like a sniper. Pop up here, take a shot, disappear before anyone can shoot back. Pop up over there, take another shot. Why am I wasting ammunition on him? (Pity the metaphor is a violent one, I can't think of a non-violent sniper metaphor.)


And if I had an hour to kill, I would
- search this subforum for instances of James R invoking the term 'woo' - with attention to frequency and most recent use, then
- search this subforum for instances of Yazata invoking the terms 'skeptics categorically knee-jerk dismiss' - with attention to frequency and most recent use, and
- plot them both on a time/frequency graph.

I am certain the result would be quite revealing (and yet still be met with stoney silence).
 
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Yazata said:
Right. Saying that they have no conclusive evidence that any UAPs are in fact extraterrestrial technology is very different than saying that they do have conclusive evidence that they aren't. (What would conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin even look like?)
In many cases, as you know, conclusive evidence has been found that reported UAPs were not, in fact, extraterrestrial technology.

Persuasive in the sense of being sufficient to persuade somebody (a sliding scale depending on who we are talking about), but not Conclusive in the logical sense of excluding all other possibilities.

Even the troll, Magical Realist, admits that the AARO found that hundreds of the reported "metallic spheres" were not of extraterrestrial origin.

Please don't resort to insults James. Not only is it childish, it's counterproductive. It just hardens those who you have chosen to be your designated enemies against accepting anything you have to say. Your goal should be to make those who currently disagree with you want to agree with you.

Regarding AARO's "found that", imagine that somebody reports seeing a metallic sphere in the sky. And AARO discovers that there indeed was a metallic coated weather balloon aloft in that area. I'd call that finding persuasive (certainly persuasive enough to persuade both me and the AARO) but not logically conclusive since the possibility still remains that what was seen wasn't the balloon.
What would conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin look like? Well, if a spaceship were to land on the White House lawn tomorrow and an alien were to emerge and give a press conference about making the journey from a distance star, and competent people were able to confirm that (a) the spaceship was markedly different in design and operation from any human-produced vehicles, and (b) that the alien is question, upon medical examination, was found to be organic and yet unrelated to any terrestrial lifeform, I'd consider that more or less conclusive evidence of extraterrestrial origin.

What would it take to convince you? I would have thought that you would require a lower burden of proof that I would, given your inclination towards believing in the little green men.

Sure, that would probably convince me.

But I'm trying to make an epistemological distinction here, between

A. What it would take to persuade me, you, anyone of something. And I believe that will in some part be a function of what the individual already believes about both the likelihood of the evidence being true and about the inherent likelihood of a particular hypothesis prior to considering evidence for or against it. The Bayesians call these "priors" and the results of Bayesian confirmation theory depend on their values.)

B. What it would take to eliminate all possibility of error. (And being a skeptic and a fallibilist, I don't think that absolutely infallible knowledge is a state attainable by human beings.)

yazata said:
I personally think that there is credible evidence (albeit not totally conclusive evidence) that is at least consistent with an extraterrestrial technological origin. (Radar returns, multiple visual sightings by trained observers, photography all appearing to corroborate each other.)
How did you get from radar returns, visual sightings and photograph to "extraterrestrial technological origin"? That seems like a huge and unjustified leap of faith to me, rather than the thoughtful analysis of a self-declared super-skeptic who isn't sure that even science should be trusted.

My claim was not that "extraterrestrial technological origin" is deductively implied by the content of the reports, merely that it is consistent with the reports. The link between the evidence and the conclusion may or may not be persuasive, depending on how reliable we find the evidence to be, on the beliefs about the subject that one has going in and on how high we set the credibility bar.
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Put more philosophically, I think that what we are dealing with here isn't logical deduction, but rather abduction, inference-to-the-best-explanation, or something like that. (Things that science does every day.)

As to how we move from the observations to "extraterrestrial technological origin", as I put it in response to something Dave wrote:
If we assume, ex hypothesi, that physical objects in our atmosphere are behaving in ways that nothing on Earth can match, and we do seem to have (in my opinion reasonably credible but not conclusive) evidence that might be the case, then that would certainly seem to be consistent with the hypothesis that the observed objects aren't from around here.

Obviously the observation reports aren't immune from being wrong. And even if we accept them at face value as the premises of an argument, the 'extraterrestrial' conclusion still isn't deductively implied. But it doesn't seem to be an unreasonable hypothetical possibility either.
 
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