The trap of dogmatic skepticism

My claim was not that "extraterrestrial technological origin" is implied deductively by the content of the reports, merely that it is consistent with the reports.
It is as consistent with extra-terrestrial technological origin as it is with divine origin, or ghostly origin, or any other origin for which we have no exemplar for comparison.

You are giving a free pass to ET that you do not give to other equally un-evidenced causes. It is surely because, unlike them, you a priori believe in ET. That's circular.
 
exchemist I expect Yazata will just not respond. It seems he selectively avoids any challenging issues, presumably by convincing himself instead that the challenger is just not engaging sufficiently in good-faith for him. He does not consider his own transgressions (The Big Lie) to be every bit as bad-faith, and hypocritical to-boot.
 
It is as consistent with extra-terrestrial technological origin as it is with divine origin, or ghostly origin, or any other origin for which we have no exemplar for comparison.

The assumption that unknown anomalous phenomena are the product of technology might indeed be the product of our currently living in a scientistic machine civilization. The observed phenomena might indeed be the product of something totally unexpected and very different.

Of course much the same complaint can be (and has been) made regarding science's methodological naturalism. It excludes divine or supernatural explanations simply by default, as a heuristic principle.

Those that hypothesize that currently unknown physical and engineering principles might be at work in some of the UAPs, would seem to be employing a very similar heuristic principle.

Keep in mind that these aren't factual claims, it's just hypothesis generation.
 
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The assumption that unknown anomalous phenomena are the product of technology might indeed be the product of our currently living in a scientistic machine civilization. The observed phenomena might indeed be the product of something totally unexpected and very different.

Of course much the same complaint can be (and has been) made regarding science's methodological naturalism. It excludes divine or supernatural explanations simply by default, as a heuristic principle.

Those that hypothesize that currently unknown physical and engineering principles might be at work in some of the UAPs, would seem to be employing a very similar heuristic principle.

Keep in mind that these aren't factual claims, it's just hypothesis generation.
Yazata,
Is that even a new view in uap analysing?
Analysing uap reports to the best of human ability, if result is “can’t make it out”, then the answer is ‘don’t know.’
 
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exchemist I expect Yazata will just not respond. It seems he selectively avoids any challenging issues, presumably by convincing himself instead that the challenger is just not engaging sufficiently in good-faith for him. He does not consider his own transgressions (The Big Lie) to be every bit as bad-faith, and hypocritical to-boot.
He is not always the cool, detached philosopher he presents himself as being, Exhibit A being “conniption fit”.

The mask slips….
 
It could be Yazata seeding a new big lie, that is sceptics only think in terms of technology for what a uap could be.
Yazata would have it that the following is out of the question in the minds of sceptics...

The idea of manipulation of Nature other than through technology being out the question for sceptics.
But then, the uap might have nothing to do with an intelligence, that too is out of the question for sceptics.
Natural phenomena, that too is out of the question for sceptics.
That is what a sceptic is in Yazata's eyes.

I wonder how these things can be ruled out, lets forget about evidence for building ideas.
Elephants mind controlling matter over very long distances with distant viewing ability.
I'm not saying that's not possible, but I would like to see some evidence.
 
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that is sceptics only think in terms of technology for what a uap could be.
Perhaps. He already stated he doesn't believe in ghosts and spirits so in that sense he's already trending away from supernatural explanations. This is my concern, that he as a bias, even though there's no "consistency" to be had for or against any explanation based on the evidence at-hand.
 
Perhaps. He already stated he doesn't believe in ghosts and spirits so in that sense he's already trending away from supernatural explanations. This is my concern, that he as a bias, even though there's no "consistency" to be had for or against any explanation based on the evidence at-hand.
Bias or he has a bug up his nose because he wants to show how deeply philosophical he is with his thoughts and open minded approaches.
The drawback for him here, is that on the subject of uaps, the sceptics are already in that mode.
 
Well you heard it here first! lol From no less an academic authority than Harvard University!


"According to the paper, scientific discussion around unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), the official government term for UFOs, has been dominated by two main classifications: human technology (conventional terrestrial origin) or extraterrestrial origin (civilizations arriving from somewhere other than Earth).

Researchers have since considered a more unorthodox set of theories, the "ultraterrestrial" hypothesis. Included in this subset of theories is the cryptoterrestrial hypothesis, which explores the possibility of non-human intelligence living among us, either concealed underground, underwater or disguising themselves as humans.

"First, it is increasingly apparent that UAP are not only aerial but can also move underwater in ways that – per their airborne counterparts – defy explanation," the paper states.


The authors cite retired Air Force Maj. David Grusch and retired Navy Rear Adm. Tim Gallaudet, who have argued there’s a lost list of strange occurrences underwater – "acting in ways that surpass human technology, and even challenge scientific understanding of what is possible underwater."

The researchers also point to the "empirical mystery" around UAP sightings often involving orbs that appear to enter or exit potential underground access points, like volcanoes."
 
^^ And thus are appeals to authority dismissed as fallacious. i.e. even people from Harvard can talk bollocks. ;)
 
Well you heard it here first! lol From no less an academic authority than Harvard University!


"According to the paper, scientific discussion around unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), the official government term for UFOs, has been dominated by two main classifications: human technology (conventional terrestrial origin) or extraterrestrial origin (civilizations arriving from somewhere other than Earth).

Researchers have since considered a more unorthodox set of theories, the "ultraterrestrial" hypothesis. Included in this subset of theories is the cryptoterrestrial hypothesis, which explores the possibility of non-human intelligence living among us, either concealed underground, underwater or disguising themselves as humans.

"First, it is increasingly apparent that UAP are not only aerial but can also move underwater in ways that – per their airborne counterparts – defy explanation," the paper states.


The authors cite retired Air Force Maj. David Grusch and retired Navy Rear Adm. Tim Gallaudet, who have argued there’s a lost list of strange occurrences underwater – "acting in ways that surpass human technology, and even challenge scientific understanding of what is possible underwater."

The researchers also point to the "empirical mystery" around UAP sightings often involving orbs that appear to enter or exit potential underground access points, like volcanoes."
And here's what Magical Realist left out:
  • The paper has not been peer-reviewed.
  • The paper was written by researchers with Harvard’s Human Flourishing Program, but a note at the top of the report calls it a "speculative thought piece" that "reflects the authors' own interests and ideas" and emphasises it’s not affiliated with the program at Harvard.
  • The authors also state at the top that they want to emphasise that they believe their hypothesis is, in all likelihood, false.
Why did Magical Realist leave out this background information? Why is MR so dishonest all the time?

Was Magical Realist trying to ride on the prestige of Harvard University to try to gain imagined support for his professed beliefs? If so, this is a clear fail.
 
"According to the paper, scientific discussion around unidentified aerial phenomena (UAP), the official government term for UFOs, has been dominated by two main classifications: human technology (conventional terrestrial origin) or extraterrestrial origin (civilizations arriving from somewhere other than Earth).

I agree that if we don't know what they are, then we probably shouldn't be assuming that they have to fall into one or the other of two mutually exclusive classes. They could be something totally unfamiliar to us at this point.
Researchers have since considered a more unorthodox set of theories, the "ultraterrestrial" hypothesis. Included in this subset of theories is the cryptoterrestrial hypothesis, which explores the possibility of non-human intelligence living among us, either concealed underground, underwater or disguising themselves as humans.

Stories of extraordinary things seen in the sky extend back as far as human history extends. So if we hypothesize that these historical accounts are the same phenomenon as is observed today, we would have to say that they have always been with us. Which might suggest (just hypothetically) that whatever it is might be deeply embedded in our history. Certainly as myth, perhaps as more tangible fact as well. (Just a speculation. I remember Jacques Vallee saying much the same thing.)
 
Stories of extraordinary things seen in the sky extend back as far as human history extends. So if we hypothesize that these historical accounts are the same phenomenon as is observed today, we would have to say that they have always been with us.
That's a big "if" you have there.

Would it be sensible to hypothesise that all the historical accounts are the "same phenomenon", as you suggest?

Consider, for instance, that contemporary accounts exhibit a wide range of different phenomena. So, why would you want to assume that the past was wildly different from today, when it comes to people seeing things in the sky that they can't immediately identify?
 
I agree that if we don't know what they are, then we probably shouldn't be assuming that they have to fall into one or the other of two mutually exclusive classes.
Luckily, no one here is promulgating that they "have to". Another oblique invocation of Yazata's Big Lie. A strawman to be exact.

Unlike our local enthusiast, who is currently on break for telling lies, we skeptics never say something has to be mundane. We say "something may be mundane" because we believe extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

James R : when does this Big Lie of Yazata's rise to the level of trolling? Perhaps he could show us a single example , in this entire forum, where any skeptic has said some otherwise unsolved account has to be mundane?


We have two UAP enthusiasts here, both of which need to tell frequent lies to make their cases hold water. That gives the industry a pretty bad name no?
 
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DaveC:
James R : when does this Big Lie of Yazata's rise to the level of trolling? Perhaps he could show us a single example , in this entire forum, where any skeptic has said some otherwise unsolved account has to be mundane?
Certainly, Yazata has become more dishonest and evasive of late. He won't reply to any of my posts. I don't know whether he even reads them. He continually reposts his false claim that skeptics have essentially all decided that it is impossible that any given UAP could possibly turn out to be the real deal woo, which clearly that have not.

You and I have both asked him to try to support his Big Lie by digging up a few real-world examples of the dishonest skeptics in action on this forum, but he has never produced anything in response. I've asked several times.

Meanwhile, he keeps mashing the "like" button on every one of the troll Magical Realist's posts. I suppose he imagines he's fighting the good fight against an evil establishment or a cabal of closed-minded skeptics when he does that.

For a man who like to pretend he's really open minded and yet properly skeptical in a way that regular skeptics like you and I will never be, he's remarkably resistant to changing his ways, admitting his errors and realising when he's being totally unreasonable and irrational.

I don't know how much of his behaviour is because of a buddy buddy relationship he might have with Magical Realist. Maybe it's more a paternal impulse and MR has succeeded in pulling the wool over his eyes to the extent that he thinks MR needs him as a defender because he believes MR is helpless or stupid and is therefore persecuted unfairly (by the same closed-mind cabal of evil inferior skeptics).

I don't think that Yazata's behaviour has quite crossed the threshold into outright trolling yet, but that line is a bit hazy. I prefer to give him the benefit of the doubt until enough evidence accumulates that his intent is actually to troll. A fair bit of evidence has already accumulated.

I think the time is approaching when I might want to start pinging him for repeatedly telling his lie, knowing all the while that it is false and refusing to respond to the people who have told him why it is false. If he is going to keep accusing people of being unreasonably prejudiced about UAPs, when the very people he is accusing have told him directly that they don't hold the views and opinions he claims they hold, and if he never even attempts to demonstrate the truth of his accusations, then it will become reasonable to infer that he is deliberately telling lies with the intent to provoke an angry reaction, which is the sort of behaviour that is characteristic of internet trolls.

I hope that, at some point, Yazata will come to his senses regarding his Big Lie. People with any integrity wouldn't want to hitch their wagon to a troll like Magical Realist, only to have him drag them down with him.

I think that, truth be told, Yazata is probably aware of his own sub-par behaviour and is ashamed of it at some level. He wouldn't be avoiding replying to us if he wasn't shamefaced about his Lie. It's like he can't look us in the face; he wants to keep his distance so he doesn't have to directly answer for his Lie.

It's still not too late for him to do the honourable thing: apologise for telling the lie and just stop telling it. The he can move on from this shameful period of his membership here.

We have two UAP enthusiasts here, both of which need to tell frequent lies to make their cases hold water. That gives the industry a pretty bad name no?
I don't interact with a lot of UFO enthusiasts directly, so I'm not sure if the dishonesty we are seeing here from the pro-UFO crowd is typical of the UFO "community" as a whole, or whether that community simply has its fair share of liars and people who are intellectually dishonest, same as other communities.

Of course, there's a whole industry practically dedicated to putting out propaganda for the belief in alien visitations and the like. Some people no doubt make a lot of money from it, and where there's money to be had there's often an incentive to lie to the pundits who are coughing up the cash.

N.B. I am not suggesting that Yazata or Magical Realist is making any money from their lies.
 
I think that, truth be told, Yazata is probably aware of his own sub-par behaviour and is ashamed of it at some level. He wouldn't be avoiding replying to us if he wasn't shamefaced about his Lie. It's like he can't look us in the face; he wants to keep his distance so he doesn't have to directly answer for his Lie.
Yes. That's what it feels like to me too. He picks and choses what he responds to, convincing himself it is based on his opponent's poor behavior, but in reality, he just hides from any challenge to his own poor behavior. It's odiously hypocritical.

I don't interact with a lot of UFO enthusiasts directly, so I'm not sure if the dishonesty we are seeing here from the pro-UFO crowd is typical of the UFO "community" as a whole, or whether that community simply has its fair share of liars and people who are intellectually dishonest, same as other communities.
Yeah, no. I didn't mean the whole industry. I meant if our little cross-section of it were representative.
They're doing their team dirty.
 
I've only scanned this thread very briefly, so forgive me if I've missed anything significant. The immediate impression I come away with, though -- already a tedious pattern on this site -- is the defenders of science railing against what they see as cranks and morons (e.g. Magical and Yazata) who just don't understand what science is all about, giving them a good telling off -- "You understand nothing about science!! Now let me tell you what science really is!"

The defenders of science then proceed to propagate and perpetuate fairy tales; -- absolute nonsense -- some idealized version of science, some propaganda, that they've been brainwashed with, bearing little or no resemblance to the real world.

I won't mention any names (but just search the thread, say, for the words "dogma" and "unfalsifiable" to locate suspects). I will tell you the reason why these fairy tales are being perpetuated, though: an appalling and inexcusable -- for any person supposedly educating others on science -- ignorance of the philosophy and history of science.

We could talk all night, but for now I'll just focus on two issues:



1. Falsifiability - In a nutshell what we're told is: "Your crap is unfalsifiable. Good science must be falsifiable."

(cf. "If not, how could that possibly be used to justify a knowledge claim? It's not repeatable or testable. It's unfalsifiable." - post #42)


It has been widely recognized for sixty years or more that scientific theories are unfalsifiable. Karl Popper's philosophy of science turned out to be hopelessly inadequate. A great many defenders of science, evidently, have still not received the memo, and still continue to propagate fairy tales and propaganda.

Scientists may say that their theories are falsifiable, perhaps some of them even believe it sincerely. E.g. "If X is observed then Theory Y has been shown to be false." The observation of X does not show that Theory Y is false, and there is not a single example in the entire history of science of the whole scientific community declaring a major theory to be false due to a theory-prediction mismatch. What typically happens in such circumstances is that, rather than declaring a falsification (which has not occurred in any case), scientists will try to find some way to reconcile awkward evidence with a cherished theory, indeed it's unlikely to be regarded as awkward evidence at all. General relativity was neither falsified, nor declared to be falsified, by the discovery of galaxies behaving in a manner seemingly at odds with the predictions of GR. Dark matter was postulated instead to reconcile the mismatch. Examples like this could be multiplied virtually ad infinitum.

I could explain the reasons for all this in more depth, but no one around here ever listens anyway (lol). Fairy tales are preferred to awkward truths. For now just read this:

"But the field known as science studies (comprising the history, philosophy and sociology of science) has shown that falsification cannot work even in principle.

[ . . . ]

But if you propagate a “myth-story” enough times and it gets passed on from generation to generation, it can congeal into a fact, and falsification is one such myth-story. It is time we abandoned it."





2. Dogma - In a nutshell what we're told is: "There is none in science. It's the very antithesis of what science is all about."

(cf. "Science operates on the assumption that anything we think we know could turn out to be wrong. That's the opposite of dogma." - post #107)

In another nutshell we're also told there is no crime in the Soviet Union, no poverty in North Korea, and no homosexuality in Iran.

Who are you trying to kid !!??

Never mind, I'll let the scientists speak for themselves . . .



"When a scientific theory is firmly established and confirmed it changes its character and becomes a part of the metaphysical background of the age: a doctrine is transformed into a dogma"

- Max Born (Nobel prize laureate in physics, 1954)



"Now to the field of physics as it presented itself at the time [late 19th century]. In spite of great productivity in particulars, dogmatic rigidity prevailed in matters of principle: In the beginning (if there was such a thing), God created Newton's laws of motion together with the necessary masses and forces."

[ . . . ]

"Even Maxwell and and H. Hertz, who in retrospect are properly recognized as those who shook the faith in mechanics as the final basis of all physical thinking, in their conscious thinking consistently held fast to mechanics as the confirmed basis of physics. It was Ernst Mach who, in his History of Mechanics, upset this dogmatic faith; this book exercised a profound influence upon me in this regard while I was a student."

-- Albert Einstein, "Autobiographical Notes"




"Not everyone agreed [that space and time are absolute]. Some argued persuasively that it made little sense to ascribe existence to something you can't feel, grasp, or affect. But the explanatory and predictive power of Newton's equations quieted the critics. For the next two hundred years, his absolute conception of space and time was dogma."

- "The Fabric of the Cosmos", Brian Greene, p8




"I am usually reluctant to engage in discussions about the meaning of quantum theory, because I find that the experts in this area have a tendency to speak with dogmatic certainty, each of them convinced that one particular solution to the problem has a unique claim to be the final truth.

- Freeman J. Dyson, essay "Thought Experiments in Honor of John Archibald Wheeler"




In the modern world, science and society often interact in a perverse way. We live in a technological society, and technology causes political problems. The politicians and the public expect science to provide answers to the problems. Scientific experts are paid and encouraged to provide answers. The public does not have much use for a scientist who says, “Sorry, but we don’t know.” The public prefers to listen to scientists who give confident answers to questions and make confident predictions of what will happen as a result of human activities. So it happens that the experts who talk publicly about politically contentious questions tend to speak more clearly than they think. They make confident predictions about the future, and end up believing their own predictions. Their predictions become dogmas which they do not question. The public is led to believe that the fashionable scientific dogmas are true, and it may sometimes happen that they are wrong. That is why heretics who question the dogmas are needed.

— Freeman J. Dyson, Frederick S. Pardee Distinguished Lecture (Oct 2005)




"At a news conference at Rockefeller yesterday, Dr. Blobel said there were many disappointments in the 30 years of research, ''such as when your grants and papers are rejected because some stupid reviewer rejected them for dogmatic adherence to old ideas.'' His remarks drew thunderous applause from the hundreds of sympathetic colleagues and younger scientists who packed the auditorium. ''What keeps you going are the little blips of excitement every three to four years,'' he said."

- Günter Blobel (Nobel prize laureate in medicine, 1999)




"[John] Clauser recalled that during his student days "open inquiry into the wonders and peculiarities of quantum mechanics" that went beyond the Copenhagen interpretation was "virtually prohibited by the existence of various religious stigmas and social pressures, that taken together, amounted to an evangelical crusade against such thinking."

-- "Quantum: Einstein, Bohr, and the great debate about the nature of reality", Manjit Kumar, p356

(John Clauser was the first person to experimentally test Bell's theorem)
 
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From the article linked above . . .

"The physicist Paul Dirac was right when he said, "Philosophy will never lead to important discoveries. It is just a way of talking about discoveries which have already been made.” "

Perhaps not. It might lead to the discovery that you've been talking a lot of crap though (e.g. falsification and dogma in science). Compare:


"Science without epistemology is -- insofar as it is thinkable at all -- primitive and muddled" -- Albert Einstein

(read "epistemology" as "philosophy")


Without some knowledge of the philosophy of science, it is simply not possible to speak about science as a whole (what is it, what its methods are, etc., etc.) without sounding -- at least to those who do have this knowledge -- woefully naive, without sounding childlike, and without saying an awful lot of things that are blatantly untrue.

Why anyone would think otherwise boggles the mind. What do you expect: a bricklayer with no relevant background to lecture competently on subatomic physics?
 
Note also a very misleading passage in the Scientific American article linked above . . .

"As philosopher of science Thomas Kuhn noted, Newton's laws were retained despite the fact that they were contradicted for decades by the motions of the perihelion of Mercury and the perigee of the moon."


Contradicted? The reason scientific theories cannot be falsified is precisely because they are not contradicted by any observational evidence. Call it an apparent contradiction if you like. If a theory really was contradicted by observational data then it follows by simple logic that either the theory or the data is false. If we accept the truth of the observational data then we can logically infer that the theory is false. It has been falsified.

An apparent contradiction is another matter entirely. An apparent contradiction can always be explained away. It can always be reconciled with the theory. You can postulate a previously undiscovered planet, you can postulate dark matter, you can postulate another force at work, you can postulate a previously unknown particle, you can . . . well, the sky's the limit!
 
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