Now as I said before, when I read and post Israeli-based rumours on what's happening in Syria, I only use them for colour commentary to present possible storylines to explain present events, especially when they're things not covered in the mainstream international press. Given that Israel has an obvious interest, right or wrong, in what people believe and understand about the Middle East and its conflicts, one must take its claims with a grain of salt just like one should do the same for all the other actors in the region, especially when they're claims that lack independent verification or based on alleged rumours in the global intelligence community that may or may not be true.
Nonetheless, in addressing the question of how Assad could possibly be so stupid as to use chemical weapons- although based on some of the conversations here, it doesn't seem like he was very stupid or miscalculating to have used them after all- I believe there are Israeli-based rumours which provide a very interesting and plausible take on just why he may have made his decisions, and may have even offered a small degree of predictive power as to developments in the conflict (by contrast, when's the last time someone like Alex Jones made an accurate, relevant prediction?). By far my favourite website for Mideast intelligence rumours is the Israeli website
Debkafile which I've mentioned to users here in the past, and even though its reports can often be hit or miss or simply unverifiable altogether, they're taken very seriously around the world and have even worked with New York City police to help avert planned or threatened terrorist attacks since 9/11.
Debkafile claims to be an "open source" intelligence website which gets its information from both purported political insiders throughout the Middle East, and through extensive monitoring of internet traffic including known Al Qaeda websites and chatrooms. It's thought but naturally unproven that much of their info comes from Israeli government and military leaks which means yes, you might be getting false information, but you might also be getting info you won't find anywhere else and certainly you'll find claims there that aren't published anywhere else. They also have an extensive team of intelligence analysts who at the very least provide a fascinating and original perspective on known events. Here's a partial chronology on their discussion of events which are barely mentioned anywhere else (and wherever else they
are mentioned, i.e. in France's Le Figaro newspaper, Debka accuses them of plagiarizing):
On June 5, one day prior to the fall of the Syrian town of Qusayr on the Lebanese border to Hezbollah fighters, Debka published a report describing how large numbers of US marines had landed in Jordan and were heading towards the Syrian border under heavily armed Jordanian escort, to establish a new operations center for training and supplying Syrian rebels based in Jordan. The article is now archived and you'd have to pay to read it, but
here's a link to a page where you can access it and read the abstract. As far as my memory serves, the existence of this base didn't become public knowledge until something like a week later, but if anyone can find me a report dating to June 5 or prior, I'd very much appreciate it.
On August 13 Debka published
this report discussing how the US in coordination with Israel, Jordan and other regional partners, was training and preparing to deploy 3000 handpicked US-equipped Syrian rebels into the conflict. The article claims that the US and its allies had planned to establish a no-fly zone between Jordan and Damascus in support of the rebels, who'd be on the ground seizing a buffer zone along the Israeli and Jordanian borders before advancing towards Damascus. US and other foreign ground troops would have no involvement whatsoever, other than protecting their existing assets in the region as usual.
On August 17 Debka published
another report giving more details on the imminent intervention, along with
this video that I linked to earlier in this thread. In particular, the video states that Assad had commenced a massive assault on "southern rebel strongholds" (which I presume include the rebel-held suburbs of Damascus) in anticipation of the incoming force. It's also stated in the video that the goal wouldn't be to remove Assad, but to "push him into a corner" and presumably force him to accept a diplomatic solution. Then on the morning of August 21 we hear the first news of chemical attacks in rebel-held suburbs of Damascus, and almost immediately Debka publishes
this report describing the attacks as coming at the same time that the first few hundred fighters of the US-backed unit were reaching these areas.
Now today the
Daily Telegraph publishes word that a US-trained force has begun entering Syria from Jordan, although they notably peg the initial number of fighters at merely 50 (the Daily Telegraph figure is based on what Obama is alleged to have told US senators, nothing more). My take on all this? Could all just be baseless rumour and coincidences, but Assad has threatened to use chemical weapons in the event of foreign intrusion in the past (unless they're foreigners he personally invites, of course), and I think he could have easily panicked and decided to stretch that definition to include Syrian citizens trained by foreigners on foreign soil. Again, just colour commentary, but the sequence of claimed events does seem fairly coherent to me, and as of today we might be seeing more evidence emerging in the public realm to back this version.
