The Syrian "Revolution": A Farce from Beginning to End

[CptBork]

Is there an opposition side that is pro-Russian then? Maybe they can beat Assad and Russia still get its way.
The opposition is too fragmented to win.

No, any pro-Russian opposition is now dead at the hands of the same people they were trying to support, and the remainder will have come to their senses by now. How about you forget whether the opposition is pro-Russian, and instead try concerning yourself whether they represent the democratic wishes of the people.

CptBork, with all due respect, and fully hoping that you do not read anything other than pure curiosity, (which is Indeed, all that it is!), into my following question.
Have you personally ever "...had to deal with any...KGB agents"?

I expected you to ask that question, and the answer is no. I've had to deal with my share of violent, dangerous people, as have my friends and loved ones, and I've known people who were persecuted and jailed in Soviet Russia, as well as at least one Lebanese man who was nearly killed by Syrian soldiers during their 28 year occupation of Lebanon (the one hardly anyone ever complains about, because non-American thuggery is considered acceptable under international common law). In mentioning KGB agents, I'm referring to Putin, he who famously demonstrates his years of education in upholding human rights and the universal rule of law. I wouldn't presume to tell a Syrian what they can and can't do to protect themselves from the butchery of Assad and Putin, nor should any other outsiders, Russian naval base be damned.

"syrian free army" are the jihadists, they just sticked a pretty boy general for media for all to see their civil image upkeep.

Or maybe you've got it backwards, and Assad and Putin are the jihadists. I don't see the FSA trying to help Shia Islamic extremists acquire nukes.

Sounds like you describing CIA there pal. To hell what USA wants, they want Egyptian and Syrian oil, but it aint gonna happen. Maybe if they keep their hands to themselves, their "democratic" bullet-in-head agendas will be kept in their own country instead.

You're right. To hell with what America wants, and to hell with what Russia wants too. All that matters is what the Syrian people want, and that's a concept which seems totally foreign to you. How's that info you promised us about Al Jazeera supporting Assad coming along? Any other thorough tidbits of research-derived wisdom you'd like to share?

No wonder US citizens are killing each other in rampages and massacres.

Yes, the violence has reached such endemic proportions that millions of US citizens are now lining up at the Venezuelan and Cuban embassies to apply for refugee status.

 

[youreyes]

Yes, the violence has reached such endemic proportions that millions of US citizens are now lining up at the Venezuelan and Cuban embassies to apply for refugee status.

why there? you got spies lining up to Russian embassies. They know the real truth about "freedom" and "equality" and "civil rights".

 

[CptBork]

why there? you got spies lining up to Russian embassies. They know the real truth about "freedom" and "equality" and "civil rights".

What, all 3 of them? They definitely must know something we don't if they can teleport themselves around to fill the lines at all those Russian embassies.

 

[dumbest man on earth]

@CptBork

CptBork, thank you for your reasonable and rational response to my question.

Would love to say that what we have to talk about in this Thread was only make believe, but it is not.
There are a lot of places on this planet that no one is given a fair shake. And even in the best of places, not everyone is given a fair shake.

Don't know if it means anything to you, that a person would look you straight in the eyes when talking to you, but it does to me.

I've never met Vladimir Putin, so I do not know about him.
But I've met this other fellow, who signed a couple of pieces of paper that for some reason he thought would mean the world to me.
When he presented them to me, along with a couple of Trinkets - he looked at my chest, then over my shoulder, then turned and smiled into a camera - while he gave me a limp cold handshake.
I guess he thought I would want a picture to hang on my wall, too.
If you were to ask him the color of my eyes he would not be able to honestly answer you from experience. I saw the color of his eyes though.

Like I said, I've never met Vladimir Putin.
But CptBork, believe me when I tell you that he could not be any worse than some of the "White Hat" wearing fellows that I have met.

CptBork, Keep doing what you are doing, the world needs more intelligent people like you actually paying attention.

Always maintain your "Situational Awareness" though.
Just because the other fellow is wearing your team Jersey does not mean he possesses any True Humanity.
And just because he wears a different teams Jersey is not an indication that he possesses no True Humanity.

CptBork, thanks again for the straight answer and may you live long enough to see a much more rational and reasonable world.

 

[GeoffP]

Well then maybe the West should start providing the support it's been promising the FSA for months without delivering, the same aid it should have started providing 2 years ago, so we can ensure that your scenario doesn't become reality. All the same, even if the secularists somehow manage to overpower the Islamists and drive them back into the woodwork, watch Assad's allies continue to label them all as godless takfiris and maintain the slaughter.

I suppose. I understand that Obama is in fact moving in this direction. I wonder if they can win though, and how much the non-secular opposition is receiving. That would probably be the second half of a successful strategy in Syria - choking out the assholes Remo Williams style.

 

[CptBork]

I suppose. I understand that Obama is in fact moving in this direction. I wonder if they can win though, and how much the non-secular opposition is receiving. That would probably be the second half of a successful strategy in Syria - choking out the assholes Remo Williams style.

It's funny you mention chokeholds, because that's exactly what I think is needed in order to solve this conflict once and for all. If we don't want to deal with the problem and get involved directly, then we have to choke off anyone who's fueling the conflict and stifling the emergence of democracy. Russia and Iran want to treat Syria as their private colony and playground, and Robittybob thinks we should just run away and let the little bullies do their thing? Then at minimum, Russia and Iran should no longer be permitted any meaningful contacts, trade or cooperation with the free world, nor should any third parties who would attempt to help them bypass sanctions.

 

[Billy T]

... Russia and Iran should no longer be permitted any meaningful contacts, trade or cooperation with the free world, nor should any third parties who would attempt to help them bypass sanctions.

The EU could not support that for at least two years, and by then the conditions in Syria will probably be worse and irreversible. 2+ years ago when that might have been prevented, Uncle Sam sat on his hands and verbalized. It will take at least two years before US can send EU significant amounts of natural gas for winter heating. The need will be greater then as China and Russian, finally are basically in agreement on the price of Russia's NG, so it can flow East instead of West thru the (48 inch diameter, I think) pipeline than has been idle for more than two years while they argued what the price / cubic meter should be. Probably, "fracking" in the US, closed the deal - lowered Russia's demands for price higher than China would pay.

BTW, I own stock in STO, Norway's oil and gas company, which is doing well in Arctic waters - hitting natural gas, more than oil, as I hoped. It can heat homes, thru existing pipelines, in EU cheaper than LNG shipped east across the Atlantic can. I foresee many things before most - The Russian/EU/China changing dynamics was why I bought it about four years ago.

 

[GeoffP]

It's funny you mention chokeholds, because that's exactly what I think is needed in order to solve this conflict once and for all. If we don't want to deal with the problem and get involved directly, then we have to choke off anyone who's fueling the conflict and stifling the emergence of democracy. Russia and Iran want to treat Syria as their private colony and playground, and Robittybob thinks we should just run away and let the little bullies do their thing? Then at minimum, Russia and Iran should no longer be permitted any meaningful contacts, trade or cooperation with the free world, nor should any third parties who would attempt to help them bypass sanctions.

Agreed. Then again, lots of people do play that old game.

 

[arauca]

It's funny you mention chokeholds, because that's exactly what I think is needed in order to solve this conflict once and for all. If we don't want to deal with the problem and get involved directly, then we have to choke off anyone who's fueling the conflict and stifling the emergence of democracy. Russia and Iran want to treat Syria as their private colony and playground, and Robittybob thinks we should just run away and let the little bullies do their thing? Then at minimum, Russia and Iran should no longer be permitted any meaningful contacts, trade or cooperation with the free world, nor should any third parties who would attempt to help them bypass sanctions.

You are a funny gut ." We rule the world" How much did ruling the world did up to the 1970 ?

 

[arauca]

The EU could not support that for at least two years, and by then the conditions in Syria will probably be worse and irreversible. 2+ years ago when that might have been prevented, Uncle Sam sat on his hands and verbalized. It will take at least two years before US can send EU significant amounts of natural gas for winter heating. The need will be greater then as China and Russian, finally are basically in agreement on the price of Russia's NG, so it can flow East instead of West thru the (48 inch diameter, I think) pipeline than has been idle for more than two years while they argued what the price / cubic meter should be. Probably, "fracking" in the US, closed the deal - lowered Russia's demands for price higher than China would pay.

BTW, I own stock in STO, Norway's oil and gas company, which is doing well in Arctic waters - hitting natural gas, more than oil, as I hoped. It can heat homes, thru existing pipelines, in EU cheaper than LNG shipped east across the Atlantic can. I foresee many things before most - The Russian/EU/China changing dynamics was why I bought it more than two years ago.

What does the STO stands for ?

 

[Billy T]

What does the STO stands for ?

STO is the ticket symbol for The ADRs listed on the NYSX. Statoil Hydro is an integrated international energy company with operations in 36 countries, primarily focused on upstream oil and gas operations. It was founded in 1972 and is based in Norway, with approximately 23,000 employees worldwide. Its primary listing is in Oslo but is also traded on the New York Stock Exchange through its ADR programme. One ADR represents the right to receive one ordinary share. Its market capitalization is about $66 billion. It has an AA- credit rating from S&P, reflecting Statoil's low credit risk. The Norwegian State is Statoil's biggest shareholder with a 67% equity stake, with the remaining 33% trading as free-float. This text from my files is from late 2009. I own 200sh, would have bought more but also own 200sh of TOT for diversification. It has appreciated more but pays lower dividends.

Here is the current description from TD AmT where my shairs are held in trust form me (It seems to have dropped "Hydro" from its name and re-organized into operating divisions).
Statoil ASA (Statoil) is an integrated energy company primarily engaged in oil and gas exploration and production activities. As of December 31, 2011, the Company had business operations in 41 countries and territories. Effective from January 1, 2011, the Company's segments were Development and Production Norway; Development and Production International; Marketing, Processing and Renewable Energy; Fuel & Retail, Other. As of 31 December 2011, the Company had proved reserves of 2,276 million barrels (mmbbl) and 3,150 billion cubic meters (bcm) (equivalent to 17,681 trillion cubic feet (tcf)) of natural gas, corresponding to aggregate proved reserves of 5,426 mmboe. In July 2013, it acquired Dong Generation Norge AS, which owns and operates Norwegian gas-fired power plant Energiverk Mongstad, from Dong Energy A/S. In August, 2013, the Company's Statoil Petroleum AS purchased Seismic Data Package from Norwegian Petroleum Directorate.

I like ADRs as they are not really dollar based assets, even though they trade in dollars. STO trades in the low $20s and pays better than 10% dividends , well covered by >$3 annual earnings per share, but more important, I think, is it has real assets for great inflation protection.

Breaking related news added by edit on 21Sept13:
The 25-year gas-sales contracts with nine EU utilities and gas-trading companies is signed. The deals are valued at more than $100 billion over the lifetime of the contracts. BP is operator of the Shah Deniz consortium that includes Statoil ASA (STO), Azerbaijan's state oil company SOCAR, Total SA (TOT)of France, Russia's Lukoil (LKOH.RS) and Turkey's TPAO, developers of {huge} Azerbaijan's gas resources, including ACG Deep--a layer of gas beneath the offshore Azerbaijan oil fields that BP and other companies are developing--and Shafag-Asiman also in the Azeri sector of the Caspian Sea.

Of the total 10 billion cubic meters of gas a year the companies have pledged to take, around 2 billion cubic meters will go to buyers intending to supply Bulgaria and Greece, with the rest going to buyers intending to supply Italy and adjacent market hubs. The Shah Deniz consortium received offers for between three to four times the volume of available gas from different buyers across central and southeastern Europe., said Al Cook, BP's vice president for Shah Deniz.

The first gas from the second phase of Shah Deniz is set to flow into Turkey in 2018 and into Europe by 2019 as more wells are brought onstream and production from the field is increased. The consortium has to finalize the engineering plans for the second phase of Shah Deniz and the expansion of the South Caucasus Pipeline that will carry the gas through Azerbaijan and Georgia to Turkey. The group also has to conclude engineering, permitting and shareholder agreements in the TANAP pipeline through Turkey and get the final commercial arrangements and intergovernmental agreements in place for the TAP pipeline that will take the gas from Turkey into Greece, Albania and Italy.

SUMMARY: Not much need for LNG from US with Norway's and Azerbaijan's gas flowing via pipelines.

 

[Robittybob1]

It's funny you mention chokeholds, because that's exactly what I think is needed in order to solve this conflict once and for all. If we don't want to deal with the problem and get involved directly, then we have to choke off anyone who's fueling the conflict and stifling the emergence of democracy. Russia and Iran want to treat Syria as their private colony and playground, and Robittybob thinks we should just run away and let the little bullies do their thing? Then at minimum, Russia and Iran should no longer be permitted any meaningful contacts, trade or cooperation with the free world, nor should any third parties who would attempt to help them bypass sanctions.

I'm not sure that I said the US and allies should run away. I think it would be like if the Chinese started muscling in on the Philippines, would the American's just walk away if the democratically elected party was likely to oust the Americans?

 

[Billy T]

As I said in post 1107, I hoped STO would hit more gas than oil (oil I easy to transport, to other side of world, but not gas and Russian gas is soon going to China, not EU).

STO's Well 7219/8-2, drilled by the drilling rig West Hercules, has proved an approximately 200 metre gas column and Statoil estimates the volumes in Iskrystall at 6 million-25 million barrels of oil equivalents. ... -The first prospect Nunatak resulted in a small gas discovery.

-"Our main goal was to find oil in Iskrystall, but unfortunately it did not materialize," says Gro G. Haatvedt, senior vice president exploration Norway. "

he is thinking the old way - does not know good luck when he sees it! Peak oil DEMAND has probably occurred but not peak gas demand especially in EU now that Russian gas flows East.

 

[CptBork]

Positive news for those concerned that the deal with Assad can't be enforced in practice:

U.S. and Russian officials now believe that the vast majority of Syria’s nerve agent stockpile consists of “unweaponized” liquid precursors that could be neutralized relatively quickly, lowering the risk that the toxins could be hidden away by the regime or stolen by terrorists.

A confidential assessment by the United States and Russia also concludes that Syria’s entire arsenal could be destroyed in about nine months, assuming that Syrian officials honor promises to cede control of the chemical assets to international inspectors, according to two people briefed on the analysis.

Source: Washington Post​

And even better is that the new spirit of diplomacy from all sides is opening up opportunities for rapprochement with Iran under the new reformists. The only reason I haven't gotten excited about Iran's recent elections is because Iran already had a moderate reformist president more than a decade ago, Mohammed Khatami, and he too sought rapprochement with the West (and even made friendly gestures to Israel once out of office), only to be turfed by the Ayatollah and his Guardian Council when he pushed it too far. Rohani doesn't call the final shots, and the only way he'll be able to get his way is if his unelected superiors feel that they're truly in a pinch and his is the only viable way out.

 

[GeoffP]

That is good news. Can Syria make the argument that they're not CW because they're only precursors? One hopes that the treaty covers stocks for construction also.

It sucks being right all the time. The situation for minorities - oh, hell, let's just say it: Christian minorities - is getting worse in Syria, sort of at the level of oh yeah, which century are we in again kind of level.

http://www.pravoslavie.ru/english/64403.htm
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...r-leads-neighbours-into-betrayal-8839610.html

And I hear that the non-secular militias have broken right off from the 'coalition', if ever there were one. Fun times.

 

[GeoffP]

It's funny you mention chokeholds, because that's exactly what I think is needed in order to solve this conflict once and for all. If we don't want to deal with the problem and get involved directly, then we have to choke off anyone who's fueling the conflict and stifling the emergence of democracy. Russia and Iran want to treat Syria as their private colony and playground, and Robittybob thinks we should just run away and let the little bullies do their thing? Then at minimum, Russia and Iran should no longer be permitted any meaningful contacts, trade or cooperation with the free world, nor should any third parties who would attempt to help them bypass sanctions.

Agreed, though I think it would be a tough go getting everyone else to agree to it.

 

[youreyes]

That is good news. Can Syria make the argument that they're not CW because they're only precursors? One hopes that the treaty covers stocks for construction also.

It sucks being right all the time. The situation for minorities - oh, hell, let's just say it: Christian minorities - is getting worse in Syria, sort of at the level of oh yeah, which century are we in again kind of level.

http://www.pravoslavie.ru/english/64403.htm
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...r-leads-neighbours-into-betrayal-8839610.html

And I hear that the non-secular militias have broken right off from the 'coalition', if ever there were one. Fun times.

you make it seem like these are sad times for Syria, in retrospect these are very happy times since the so called "friends of Syria" and the "rebels/terrorists" are fighting amongst each other. The Syrian army stands united, just like the Xerxes army in the ancient times.

 

[CptBork]

That is good news. Can Syria make the argument that they're not CW because they're only precursors? One hopes that the treaty covers stocks for construction also.

If Assad was planning to pull that gambit, I don't see why he would have declared those precursors as part of his arsenal. I think the only real concern is that Assad might try to either hide much of his arsenal or else play word games regarding what should be considered part of his "operational capabilities". We must ensure that Syria's chemical weapons capabilities are restored to square one, where they may retain the technical know-how, but none of the industrial capacity to actually put it to use.

It sucks being right all the time. The situation for minorities - oh, hell, let's just say it: Christian minorities - is getting worse in Syria, sort of at the level of oh yeah, which century are we in again kind of level.

It wouldn't be much better under Shia rule, the ethnic cleansing would simply be delayed until they'd assembled sufficient forces and political conditions to pull it off. Lebanon will fall of the cliff soon if Hezbollah's weapons supply isn't halted, and Christians in Syria in Lebanon will eventually fall to the same fate as their brethren in Iran, where they're nothing more than an insignificant grandfathered token minority facing marginal and declining religious tolerance.

And I hear that the non-secular militias have broken right off from the 'coalition', if ever there were one. Fun times.

Then there should be no more excuses to withhold support for them or to equate them with Iran-backed Shia thugs.

Agreed, though I think it would be a tough go getting everyone else to agree to it.

Well that's the question of the century, isn't it? Do we want to cut off all support for Islamic terrorism and extremism, and grow the world to prosper in their absence, or do we want to trade with dictatorships and the nations that enable them (as well as those who enable the enablers) for the convenience of short-term profits?

you make it seem like these are sad times for Syria, in retrospect these are very happy times since the so called "friends of Syria" and the "rebels/terrorists" are fighting amongst each other. The Syrian army stands united, just like the Xerxes army in the ancient times.

Just as I called it- even when the secularist rebels sacrifice their own blood to draw a clear distinction between themselves and Wahabbi terrorists, you continue to place them all in the same basket, for the crime of refusing to enslave themselves to insecure Russians and Iranians with their silly master race ambitions. Which Syrian army stands united, the one Assad started with or the one that defected to the rebels? I find it very appropriate that you make mention of Xerxes, since today Assad and Hezbollah are nothing more than Iranian proxies anyhow, and can't survive on their own without Iran's support. Do recall what happened to those mentally challenged Persians and their mighty empire when they pushed tiny Greece just a little bit too far.

 

[GeoffP]

you make it seem like these are sad times for Syria, in retrospect these are very happy times since the so called "friends of Syria" and the "rebels/terrorists" are fighting amongst each other. The Syrian army stands united, just like the Xerxes army in the ancient times.

The Syrian government is not exactly nicey-nice here, youreyes. They're bad people. Whether or not they carried out the massacre in the suburbs of Damascus - and it is still far more likely that they did - they have done a variety of horrible things in the past. I don't say all the rebels are innocent - the non-secular ones clearly are not - but there are few good guys.