The statistical probability of Extraterrestial life

[Novacane]

Any species 'unable' to communicate will not even be aware of our existence. Any species 'unwilling' to communicate will probably be here already, since our own radio signals haven't even travelled 100 light years away from Earth at this point.

The difference between these two conditions to our security is chasmic. When SETI has built a solar-sized radio wave detector in 100 years, let's talk about some preliminary conclusions as to where we stand.

It's doubtful either one of us will be around in a 100 years to have the conversation and it's even more highly probable that SETI won't be around either, because they will probably get tired of waiting for ET to send a message, especially if ET is 'not' out there or because ET technically 'can't' or ET is just 'not interested' in sending any messages anywhere.

 

[glenn239]

Whether or not we're around to discuss it is irrelevent to the process. Discovering our place in the galaxy is going to take tens of thousands of years.

With no detections so far, it becomes clearer with each passing year that the original SETI premise is, for whatever reason, not going to detect anything of note. At the moment, the most useful ventures underway are those looking to discover whether or not life exists on Titan, Venus, etc. If life came about in more than one place in this solar system, then it becomes almost certain that it's all over the galaxy.

 

[Novacane]

Whether or not we're around to discuss it is irrelevent to the process. Discovering our place in the galaxy is going to take tens of thousands of years.

With no detections so far, it becomes clearer with each passing year that the original SETI premise is, for whatever reason, not going to detect anything of note. At the moment, the most useful ventures underway are those looking to discover whether or not life exists on Titan, Venus, etc. If life came about in more than one place in this solar system, then it becomes almost certain that it's all over the galaxy.

It's probably a good bet that Titan and Venus are not going to be the vacation paradise for alien tourists that we all had originally imagined they would be.

 

[Balerion]

I think the most important thing to come from our observations of the solar system is that while life may be a tough bastard and capable of living in certain extremes, there is still a basic formula without which it does not occur.

If I'm not mistaken, I think scientists are saying that even with liquid water under the surface of Titan, something is missing for life to have occured. Granted, it's not 100%, but the fact remains that we aren't finding life on any of these places we thought could suit it. It's sad, but it's also a very necessary discovery to improve our understanding of just where life can and can't happen.

 

[glenn239]

If I'm not mistaken, I think scientists are saying that even with liquid water under the surface of Titan, something is missing for life to have occured. Granted, it's not 100%, but the fact remains that we aren't finding life on any of these places we thought could suit it. It's sad, but it's also a very necessary discovery to improve our understanding of just where life can and can't happen.

I'm not aware of any conclusive tests having been done anywhere at this date. Preliminary tests on Mars have come back negative.

 

[Vega]

Recent infrared photographs taken by the Hubble Space Telescope show large bright and dark regions on Titan's surface that may indicate the presence of continental landmasses.

In 1998, the European Space Agency's Infrared Space Observatory (ISO) detected water vapor in the atmosphere of Titan. Due to Titan's huge distance from the Sun, the surface temperatures are seemingly too cold to support liquid water.

But scientists say it is possible that an impact pool created by a comet or asteroid could maintain liquid water for as long as 1,000 years — perhaps long enough for life's chemical reactions to take place.

 

[phlogistician]

But scientists say it is possible that an impact pool created by a comet or asteroid could maintain liquid water for as long as 1,000 years — perhaps long enough for life's chemical reactions to take place.

I guess a simple virus, once created may also survive the conditions once the pool dries out, until it gets wet again and can carry on replicating.

 

[Vega]

I guess a simple virus, once created may also survive the conditions once the pool dries out, until it gets wet again and can carry on replicating.

Quite possible! This also depends on the nature of the virus given the state of the enviromental and geological conditions.

 

[glenn239]

But scientists say it is possible that an impact pool created by a comet or asteroid could maintain liquid water for as long as 1,000 years — perhaps long enough for life's chemical reactions to take place.

If Mars (for example) had liquid water for a few billion years then there should have been some primative form of life develop there. If life only exists or existed on Earth in this solar system, then the first hurdle to the theory that life is rare is overcome. But if it is shown that life sprung up at least twice in different locations in this neck of the woods, then anyone thinking life in the galaxy is rare is probably smoking crack.

 

[Novacane]

Right now it appears that there is not too much 'crack' smoking going on, at least in this galaxy anyway.