I note that 786 has not responded to post #94, despite saying he would.
Here is your response, I already said I would respond on the weekend...
There's no assumption of randomness at the beginning. As I said, we can do statistical tests for randomness.
I think I agree with GeoffP, the default position it to assume every unexplainable factor as random, this is what I meant by "assumption of randomness at the beginning"- since it would be the default position.
And yes, it is possible to "fake" randomness if you're very careful. Human beings generally aren't very good at it.
True, but I'm not just talking about humans.
Occam's razor dictates that we work with the simplest possible set of assumptions. If something passes all statistical tests of randomness, then the default position is to assume it is random unless there is actual evidence to the contrary. Postulating that God, for example, is controlling the events in such a way that they LOOK totally random, is a much more complicated set of assumptions that simply assuming that the events are actually random. In other words, God is an unnecessary hypothesis in this situation. And that is the scientific approach.
I would agree that God is an unnecessary hypothesis but that is why I was trying to use physical laws as the control, not God. Also I would have to argue that "control" is more simple than "randomness" because from the outset the randomizing force is basically unknown, but control can be explained under the physical laws.
Yes, it is possible. But also not helpful from a scientific point of view. Since there's no way to prove that "God did it" in causing those few mutations, and because the mutations are consistent with the assumption of randomness, God is once again an unnecessary hypothesis.
Actually a "few" directed mutations can absolutely be NOT told apart from random mutations since they would have happened in the past. Suppose I caused the mutations between archea and bacteria and all the rest were random- science would label all of them random- because first of all you do not have the actual observational data (since its Millions of years ago event) to perform statistical analysis upon. Those single data points will- by default- be labeled random.
As an explanation for evolution, what creationists need is to show that it couldn't have happened without God intervening. Asserting that God did it but in such a way that his actions are indistinguishable from randomness is no proof of God. It's just introducing an extra unnecessary assumption, and a very complex one at that.
I wasn't arguing for creationism, and neither is this thread an attempt to prove God.
All you're saying here is that the definition of randomness can depend on our state of knowledge of the system. I agree with you.
Well if you agree then you are agreeing that you can't prove 'true randomness' because our knowledge is almost always limited.
Yes. Although in your example you might ask "For whom is this a random draw?" For the person looking at what he is drawing and selecting the pieces of paper deliberately according to some plan, it is clearly not random. But for a spectator who doesn't know what the person is looking for when drawing the numbers, the draw could still very well be random for all intents and purposes. The difference is in the information available to the people - a point you made earlier.
Yes my point is, as mentioned above, is that due to this relativity of randomness we can't show 'true randomness' to exist (or not to exist).
In the quantum case, there are actually proofs that there cannot be any "unknown factors" that actually determine the outcome in advance. If you're interested, look up Bell's inequalities and "hidden variable theories".
Well Bell's inequalities would only eliminate local hidden variables not the non-local. The
Bohm interpretation is still valid interpretation of quantum mechanics.
Not at all. Randomness is a defined quality. We can define randomness precisely and simply, which is exactly what statistics is all about. The simply define a random series of events as a series of events that displays a certain set of statistical properties. And yes, this depends on something being unknown. For example, in the coin toss example we say the coin toss is random because we cannot know as a matter of fact in advance whether a coin will land heads or tails.
Well, the fact we can't know the result of a coin toss is simply due to the unknown forces and their respective magnitudes- if we did then theoretically we could predict it. And secondly the fact we can't predict something doesn't mean its random. I don't think everyone could predict who will get kicked off American Idol, but it definitely is not random.
But there are plenty of things that are unknown that cannot be explained by postulating randomness. Randomness, paradoxically, shows certain statistical patterns when you consider large enough data sets. Things that are not random but are still unknown can be clearly categorised as "unknown but definitely not random".
Agreed, all unknown factors can't be defined as random, but all random can be attributed as due to "unknown" factors. Similar to the relationship between a square and rectangle. All squares are rectangles but all rectangles are not square. In our case random is the square.
So, randomness is not a catch-all explanation in the same way that "God did it" is. God can be used to explain literally anything and everything. Randomness cannot.
I agree that God and randomness are not exactly 'equivalent'.
You can prove that something is non-random. You can't prove that God didn't do something. That's why randomness is scientific and God isn't. Randomness is falsifiable. God is not.
Hmm... I think we're playing with words here. I don't think you can say something is 'non-random' either. All you can say is something is 'predictable' and something is 'not-predictable'. By the logic you are using to "falsify random" then the argument as follows would also be true: We can say something is not supernatural- So supernatural is a falsifiable argument- This doesn't automatically mean that supernatural exists? (As you would assume random to exist because of the same logic)- And if one equates supernatural with God then God becomes falsifiable also...
Peace be unto you