The Etp Model Has Been Empirically Confirmed

Status
Not open for further replies.
How about a complete sentence from you, or God forbid, a rational one?

Was your welcome absence due to organic causes or because you learned what an "infraction" is?
troll.gif
Believe me when I tell you I take no pleasure in exposing your continual self display of lack of comprehension skills. All of it is documented, shall I compile a list of links? I was hoping you would have learned by now, how sad.
 
You know what? Fuck you.

I don't give a happy shit if I'm banned, because the moderators and admins here allow trash like you to shit in the nest. Good luck with your goddamned troll life, asshole.

It's ok to be honest and express yourself. It's your right to have an opinion am sure that's not the issue here. What the issue is that you're violating the contract you agreed to upon signing up to this website, that does not make you a man of your word. This place has rules Dr Toad rules you agreed to if you did not realize that, and the way you present and express yourself is less than classy. As well there my be children here as an adult you should take note of examples you are setting for the young.
 
Last edited:
You know what Dr Toad I have nothing against you and feel sorry for you at times you may be going trough some personal issues. Just your attitude needs work, am fine with the fact you hate me. Don't think I did not notice your comment "Happiness is a warm gun" you will get your chance I soon will be easy to find.
 
But if you change your mind and decide I am worthy enough to be alive then I would love that as well. Instead now you could rebuild the person you once was start with a clean slate, and finally I could get to know the real Dr Toad, and possibly see the real human bieng that you were mostly likely raised to become.
 
You know what Dr Toad I have nothing against you and feel sorry for you at times you may be going trough some personal issues. Just your attitude needs work, am fine with the fact you hate me. Don't think I did not notice your comment "Happiness is a warm gun" you will get your chance I soon will be easy to find.

I'm not "going trough" anything, idiot. You are illiterate and offensive, and I'm very sorry to hear that you bred. I pity your children.
 
I'm not "going trough" anything, idiot. You are illiterate and offensive, and I'm very sorry to hear that you bred. I pity your children.
Well if it makes you feel any better at this moment I have no children. But what I find so strange is if my comments is of no value to you then why would you waste your time even commenting on any of my so called illiterate comments, don't you value your time? Why would you waste it talking to me a dullard??
 
Last edited:
I'm not "going trough" anything, idiot. You are illiterate and offensive, and I'm very sorry to hear that you bred. I pity your children.

It's another funny thing though, you claim I am illiterate but come to an illiterate conclusion that I have kids. When did I ever make that claim in writing? I am now forced to assume you can not read, but I know you can, so the only other conclusion is you lack reading comprehension skills like I claimed before.
 
Last edited:
I'm very sorry to hear that you bred. I pity your children.

Where did you hear this? Certainly not from anything I wrote. Schizophrenia may explain your psychological condition again how sad. At least if you are going to call someone illiterate read the comments you wrote to me on sciforums first, that is why I feel sorry for you. Hope you can comprehend.
 
Last edited:
Science tries to describe small parts at a time. Inasmuch where variables can be known or sufficiently estimated.

I also need to correct myself as I was solely thinking of physical equations. Like if one considers psychology a science... Or thinks experiments done on animals for the benefit of humans (diseases, drugs). They have a different physiology. Like if I ate some of the things my dog or cat ate eww I'd be more likely to get parasites or food poisoning.
 
show the input sheet. show us what will " just settle the matter once and for all. " why are you continuing to avoid this ?
:) shrugs
~~~THE KRASH661:cool:
Anything that requires analysis is beyond his abilities. Like every crank he will ignore any request for information. Since he can't do the analysis he doesn't want somebody else doing it for him.
I'm a troll for posting about prostitution? You told me, Futilitist, that prices in the sex trade can governed/predicted by thermodynamics. And if you looked closer I showed that there are multiple variables (hair colour, location, bust size, facebook...) effecting cost that the second law of thermodynamics cannot be used as it is not a simple/closed system.

Which, in turn, if you were rational should have invited you as I mentioned to look at what you are trying to predict. There are too many unknowns for you apply thermodynamics in that Etp thing and you are talking about the whole world.

Moreover, the second law of thermodynamics effecting prostitution prices and I could use it to find the best location to whore myself and when the sex trade would become unprofitable -_O
Very informative. LOL.
 
Last edited:
We agree that the Fibonacci Sequence has no bearing on the price of daisies? I beg to differ.

As I explained, the more petals a daisy has the greater its value as a decoration. These petals are formed in accordance with the Fibonacci Sequence. Thus the higher the Fibonacci number, the higher the price of the flower. A clear connection between the Fibonacci Sequence and the price of flowers.

I see a great similarity to your proposition. So why do you reject my proposition, but at the same time expect me to accept your perceived Etp connection to the price of a barrel of oil?
I don't expect you to accept the Etp model. I was hoping you would be true to your word and take an honest look at. But you seem to have made your mind up a long time ago.

Even if the Fibonacci Sequence really is a good tool for forecasting daisy prices, it still has nothing to do with whether or not the Etp model is valid. So, your argument is basically meaningless.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
I think this is a fair and simply request, it would be unwise to ignore it or label it an insignificant component to the debate of the validity of the ETP...
As I patiently explained to krash661, there is no "sheet". So, no, it is not a fair request.

The closest thing to a "sheet" would be a description of the methodology used to create the Etp model. I have already provided that multiple times. Read the thread.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
also when i do the calculations myself using your formula and actual econ data , i receive different results.

i did, and what i came up with was not the same results, keep in mind i used your formula and actual econ data.

that's another obvious reason why it's 100% shiit, besides me doing the actual calculations and receiving different results.
What actual econ data did you use? Show your work. Prove you actually did such a calculation.

The Etp model does not use any economic data at all. It uses the production history of oil, the reservoir temperature, and the water cut as inputs.

So, it is clear that you didn't actually perform any calculations and if you did, you did not use the right inputs anyway.

You are just trying to make the invalid claim that I am not sufficiently addressing your invalid questions. But I have answered your stupid questions as best I can even though they are largely unintelligible gibberish.

This all seems to be happening in some sort of childish attempt to claim that I am being somehow hypocritical to dodge your so called questions since I have rightly accused exchemist of dodging mine. But exchemist really is dodging my vaild questions and you are just making shit up.

What you are doing is called trolling.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
Last edited:
As the concept of "argument from authority" is frequently used by cranks as way to assert that their notions must be given equal merit to that of proper science or other knowledge, I herewith break my rule (of leaving Fute alone in his delusions) in order to quote from Rationalwiki:

" An argument from authority refers to two kinds of logical arguments:

A logically valid argument from authority grounds a claim in the beliefs of one or more authoritative source(s), whose opinions are likely to be true on the relevant issue.

A logically fallacious argument from authority grounds a claim in the beliefs of a source that is not authoritative. Sources could be non-authoritative because of their personal bias, their disagreement with consensus on the issue, their non-expertise in the relevant issue, or a number of other issues. (Often, this is called an appeal to authority, rather than argument from authority.)"

There is other good stuff on the topic in the article as well, so I give the link for anyone who is interested: http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Argument_from_authority
IE the postulates for Etp are logically fallacious. IE bullshit.
 
Since there still seems to be so much confusion over the methodology used to create the Etp model, I will post it again:

"Crude oil is used primarily as an energy source; its other uses have only minor commercial value. To be an energy source it must therefore be capable of delivering sufficient energy to support its own production process (extraction, processing and distribution); otherwise it would become an energy sink, as opposed to a source. The Total Production Energy ($$E_{TP}$$) must therefore be equal to, or less than EG, its specific exergy. To determine values for $$E_{TP}$$ the total crude oil production system is analyzed by defining it as three nested Control Volumes within the environment. The three Control Volumes (where a control volume differs from a closed system because it allows energy and mass to pass through it's boundaries) are the reservoir, the well head, and the Petroleum Production System (PPS). The PPS is where the energy that comes from the well head is converted into the work required to extract the oil. The PPS is an area which is distributed within, and throughout the environment. It is where the goods and services needed for the production process originate. This boundary make-up allows other energy, and mass transfers to be considered as exchanges, such as natural gas used in refining, electricity used in well pumping, or water used for reservoir injection."
~BW Hill


Boundary conditions_zpse1brybjr.jpg


Values for $$E_{TP}$$ are derived from the solution of the Second Law statement, the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes:

$$\frac{dS_{CV}}{dt}
=\sum_j\frac{\dot{Q}_{j}}{T_{j}}
+\sum_i\dot{m}_{i}s_{i}
-\sum_e\dot{m}_{e}s_{e}
+\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$


"Where $$\frac{dS_{CV}}{dt}$$ represents the time rate of change of entropy within the control volume. The terms $$\dot{m}_{i}s_{i}$$ and $$\dot{m}_{e}s_{e}$$ account, respectively, for rates of entropy transfer into and out of the control volume accompanying mass flow. The term $$\dot{Q}_{j}$$ represents the time rate of heat transfer at the location on the boundary where the instantaneous temperature is $$T_{j}$$. The ratio $$\frac{\dot{Q}_j}{T_j}$$ accounts for the accompanying rate of entropy transfer. The term $$\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$ denotes the time rate of entropy production due to irreversibilities within the control volume."
~(Taken from Fundamentals of Engineering Thermodynamics by Moran and Shapiro)

Because there is only one temperature boundary (at the exit point of the reservoir) and no crude oil enters the reservoir from the environment, the equation reduces to:

$$\frac{dS_{CV}}{dt}=\frac{\dot{Q}_{j}}{T_{j}}-\dot{m}_{e}s_{e}+\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$

giving: $$\frac{BTU}{sec*°R}$$

For this application, crude oil and water can be treated as incompressible substances. Their specific entropies are only affected by a temperature change.

For specific heats: $$c_{v}=c_{p}=c$$, and $$s_{2}-s_{1}=c*\ln{\frac{T_{2}}{T_{1}}}$$ The reservoir temperature is constant, therefore the entropy of the reservoir must decrease at the same rate that the entropy is transferred from the reservoir by mass flow. Thus, the heat leaving the reservoir is negative in sign and the equation becomes:

$$\frac{\dot{Q}_{j}}{T_{j}}=\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$

giving: $$\frac{BTU}{sec*°R}$$

The rate of entropy production in the petroleum production system is equal to the rate of heat extracted from the reservoir divided by the reservoir temperature.

The rate of irreversibility production in the petroleum production system therefore becomes:

$$\dot{I_{cv}}=T_{O}*\dot\sigma_{cv}$$

giving: $$\frac{BTU}{sec}$$

Where $$T_{O}$$ equals the standard reference temperature of the environment, 537 °R (77° F).

Therefore:

$$E_{TP}=\int_{t1}^{t2}\dot{I_{cv}}dt$$

giving: $$BTU$$

Because the mass removed from the reservoir is limited to crude oil and water, the increase in $$E_{TP}$$ per billion barrels (Gb) of crude extracted as $$ds=c\frac{dT}{T}$$ is:

(Equation#7)

$$\frac{E_{TP/lb}}{Gb}
=\begin{bmatrix}\frac{(m_{c}*c_{c}
+m_{w}*c_{w})(T_{R}-T_{O})}{m_{c}} \end{bmatrix}/Gb$$


giving: BTU/lb/Gb

$$m_{c}$$ = mass of crude, lbs.
$$c_{c}$$ = specific heat of crude, BTU/lb °R
$$m_{w}$$ = mass of water, lbs.
$$c_{w}$$ = specific heat of water, BTU/lb °R
$$T_{R}$$ = reserve temperature, °R
$$T_{O}$$ = standard reference temperature of the environment, 537 °R
$$s_{i}$$ = specific entropy into the control volume
$$s_{e}$$ = specific entropy exiting the control volume

BTU/gal/Gb for 35.7° API crude = BTU/lb/Gb * 7.0479 lb/gal

Evaluation of $$E_{TP}$$ from Equation# 7 requires the determination of three variables: mass of the crude ($$m_{c}$$) mass of the water ($$m_{w}$$), and the temperature of the reservoir ($$T_{R}$$). These must be determined at time (t).

1) The mass of crude at time (t) is derived from the cumulative production function,
2) the mass of water is derived from the average % surface water cut (fw) of the reservoir,
3) temperature of the reserve is derived from the well depth. This assumes an earth temperature gradient of 1°F increase per 70 feet of depth.

-------------------------------

Does anyone have any serious, valid comments about the methodology used to create the Etp model?




---Futilitist:cool:
 
Last edited:
You know what Dr Toad I have nothing against you and feel sorry for you at times you may be going trough some personal issues. Just your attitude needs work, am fine with the fact you hate me. Don't think I did not notice your comment "Happiness is a warm gun" you will get your chance I soon will be easy to find.
Nah I'm pretty sure he's disgusted with the lack of scholarship in you posts. Not a problem if you recognize your scholarship associated with physics is lacking. Cranks generally refuse to acknowledge their lack of scholarship. Intellectual dishonesty. They also are afraid of the literature because it defines their lack of scholarship.
 
Nah I'm pretty sure he's disgusted with the lack of scholarship in you posts. Not a problem if you recognize your scholarship associated with physics is lacking. Cranks generally refuse to acknowledge their lack of scholarship. Intellectual dishonesty. They also are afraid of the literature because it defines their lack of scholarship.
Hey brucep,

This thread is to discuss the Etp model. Please stop trolling. Thank you.

I just posted the Etp methodology for you to comment on. What do you find wrong with it? If possible, please be a little more specific than you have been so far. Thank you.

Here is a brief summary of your excellent arguments so far:

1) IE the postulates for Etp are logically fallacious. IE bullshit.
2) I told you. The postulates you derive your theory from are bullshit.
3) Where you fail is not recognizing you're touting a bullshit theory derived from bullshit postulates.
4) you're touting a theory which is derived from bullshit postulates
5) the correlations are the postulates for this bullshit theory

That is a whole lot of bullshit, brucep. Are you proud of yourself?

Like every crank he will ignore any request for information.
You are a crank according to your own definition.



---Futilitist:cool:
 
Last edited:
Since there still seems to be so much confusion over the methodology used to create the Etp model, I will post it again:

"Crude oil is used primarily as an energy source; its other uses have only minor commercial value. To be an energy source it must therefore be capable of delivering sufficient energy to support its own production process (extraction, processing and distribution); otherwise it would become an energy sink, as opposed to a source. The Total Production Energy ($$E_{TP}$$) must therefore be equal to, or less than EG, its specific exergy. To determine values for $$E_{TP}$$ the total crude oil production system is analyzed by defining it as three nested Control Volumes within the environment. The three Control Volumes (where a control volume differs from a closed system because it allows energy and mass to pass through it's boundaries) are the reservoir, the well head, and the Petroleum Production System (PPS). The PPS is where the energy that comes from the well head is converted into the work required to extract the oil. The PPS is an area which is distributed within, and throughout the environment. It is where the goods and services needed for the production process originate. This boundary make-up allows other energy, and mass transfers to be considered as exchanges, such as natural gas used in refining, electricity used in well pumping, or water used for reservoir injection."
~BW Hill


Boundary conditions_zpse1brybjr.jpg


Values for $$E_{TP}$$ are derived from the solution of the Second Law statement, the Entropy Rate Balance Equation for Control Volumes:

$$\frac{dS_{CV}}{dt}
=\sum_j\frac{\dot{Q}_{j}}{T_{j}}
+\sum_i\dot{m}_{i}s_{i}
-\sum_e\dot{m}_{e}s_{e}
+\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$


"Where $$\frac{dS_{CV}}{dt}$$ represents the time rate of change of entropy within the control volume. The terms $$\dot{m}_{i}s_{i}$$ and $$\dot{m}_{e}s_{e}$$ account, respectively, for rates of entropy transfer into and out of the control volume accompanying mass flow. The term $$\dot{Q}_{j}$$ represents the time rate of heat transfer at the location on the boundary where the instantaneous temperature is $$T_{j}$$. The ratio $$\frac{\dot{Q}_j}{T_j}$$ accounts for the accompanying rate of entropy transfer. The term $$\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$ denotes the time rate of entropy production due to irreversibilities within the control volume."
~(Taken from Fundamentals of Engineering Thermodynamics by Moran and Shapiro)

Because there is only one temperature boundary (at the exit point of the reservoir) and no crude oil enters the reservoir from the environment, the equation reduces to:

$$\frac{dS_{CV}}{dt}=\frac{\dot{Q}_{j}}{T_{j}}-\dot{m}_{e}s_{e}+\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$

giving: $$\frac{BTU}{sec*°R}$$

For this application, crude oil and water can be treated as incompressible substances. Their specific entropies are only affected by a temperature change.

For specific heats: $$c_{v}=c_{p}=c$$, and $$s_{2}-s_{1}=c*\ln{\frac{T_{2}}{T_{1}}}$$ The reservoir temperature is constant, therefore the entropy of the reservoir must decrease at the same rate that the entropy is transferred from the reservoir by mass flow. Thus, the heat leaving the reservoir is negative in sign and the equation becomes:

$$\frac{\dot{Q}_{j}}{T_{j}}=\dot{\sigma}_{cv}$$

giving: $$\frac{BTU}{sec*°R}$$

The rate of entropy production in the petroleum production system is equal to the rate of heat extracted from the reservoir divided by the reservoir temperature.

The rate of irreversibility production in the petroleum production system therefore becomes:

$$\dot{I_{cv}}=T_{O}*\dot\sigma_{cv}$$

giving: $$\frac{BTU}{sec}$$

Where $$T_{O}$$ equals the standard reference temperature of the environment, 537 °R (77° F).

Therefore:

$$E_{TP}=\int_{t1}^{t2}\dot{I_{cv}}dt$$

giving: $$BTU$$

Because the mass removed from the reservoir is limited to crude oil and water, the increase in $$E_{TP}$$ per billion barrels (Gb) of crude extracted as $$ds=c\frac{dT}{T}$$ is:

(Equation#7)

$$\frac{E_{TP/lb}}{Gb}
=\begin{bmatrix}\frac{(m_{c}*c_{c}
+m_{w}*c_{w})(T_{R}-T_{O})}{m_{c}} \end{bmatrix}/Gb$$


giving: BTU/lb/Gb

$$m_{c}$$ = mass of crude, lbs.
$$c_{c}$$ = specific heat of crude, BTU/lb °R
$$m_{w}$$ = mass of water, lbs.
$$c_{w}$$ = specific heat of water, BTU/lb °R
$$T_{R}$$ = reserve temperature, °R
$$T_{O}$$ = standard reference temperature of the environment, 537 °R
$$s_{i}$$ = specific entropy into the control volume
$$s_{e}$$ = specific entropy exiting the control volume

BTU/gal/Gb for 35.7° API crude = BTU/lb/Gb * 7.0479 lb/gal

Evaluation of $$E_{TP}$$ from Equation# 7 requires the determination of three variables: mass of the crude ($$m_{c}$$) mass of the water ($$m_{w}$$), and the temperature of the reservoir ($$T_{R}$$). These must be determined at time (t).

1) The mass of crude at time (t) is derived from the cumulative production function,
2) the mass of water is derived from the average % surface water cut (fw) of the reservoir,
3) temperature of the reserve is derived from the well depth. This assumes an earth temperature gradient of 1°F increase per 70 feet of depth.

-------------------------------

Does anyone have any serious, valid comments about the methodology used to create the Etp model?

La la la. Answer this:

Saudi Arabia has long enjoyed the status of being the top crude oil exporter in the world. With record production of 10.564 million barrels per day in June 2015, Saudi Arabia has been one of the major driving forces behind the current oil price slump.

The Saudis have kept their production levels high since last year in order to drive other players (especially U.S. shale drillers) out of business. Equally clear is the fact that this strategy of maintaining the glut and driving out rivals hasn’t worked so far.

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/The-Saudi-Oil-Price-War-Is-Backfiring.html


The oil price is an economic game... The Etp model is for the ignorant.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top