Syria September 2015 ~ What's up?

That's the argument the Russian state has and continues to make. But, I don't agree with it, because it locks the country into a never ending cycle of autocracy, corruption, and abuse. Transition from autocracy to democracy requires good leadership and unfortunately Russia has rarely if every had it. Russia has never had a Washington, a Jefferson, a Lincoln, or an FDR.
I understand your concern Joe... no problem with that.
However it pays to keep in mind that when someone has been released from a cage after generations of existing in it things can go ape very quickly.
The problem for the West in this case with Russia, is that Russia is still a major nuclear power ( even if antiquated) and steady government is essential even if we in the West do not like their methods.
A slow progressive program of social liberation is a must if the world is to survive Russian's move towards freedom. The process needs to be supported by the West not obstructed.
Perhaps there needs to be much more "open" discussion on this subject/issue by world leaders.

"Transition from Autocracy to Democracy" is no where as easy as the Democratic West thinks it is...
 
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I understand your concern Joe... no problem with that.
However it pays to keep in mind that when someone has been released from a cage after generations of existing in it things can go ape very quickly.
The problem for the West in this case with Russia, is that Russia is still a major nuclear power ( even if antiquated) and steady government is essential even if we in the West do not like their methods.
A slow progressive program of social liberation is a must if the world is to survive Russian's move towards freedom. The process needs to be supported by the West not obstructed.
Perhaps there needs to be much more "open" discussion on this subject/issue by world leaders.

It has been 25 years since the collapse of the Soviet Union and Russia is in reverse, and it has reverted to autocracy. More troubling is Putin's revival of fascism and aggression towards her neighbors. If we learned anything from Hitler, we should have learned appeasement doesn't work. Putin is a bully, and the only thing bullies respect is power. Appeasement never works with them. World leaders have held extensive discussions on the matter. I have known many bullies, but I haven't met one who didn't value his skin and his pleasures above that of all others. The way to deal with a bully is to let them know, you know you are bigger and can and will inflict more pain and distress on them than they on you. I have yet to meet a bully who wasn't a coward. Hitler was a coward.

If we were having this discussion 20 - 25 years ago, I would agree with you.
 
I wrote a while ago that "leaders only get the opportunity to lead because of the support that they have". in other words all leaders are puppets of their supporters.

Putin has the support of a old school brigade of military expansionist inclined generals and so on. All those generals, I would presume, are very much Putin's senior and have bitter memories of conflicts and cold war. The same issue includes nations such as North Korea, China, and so on...

In other words until the support base is changed Putin will continue to do a hopscotch dance to keep them happy...
 
Apparently about 4 hours ago the Headline:
800,000 refugees Returning to Syria:

Src express.co.uk


More than 800,000 refugees RETURNING to Syria as Putin OBLITERATES Islamic State

MORE than 800,000 refugees are set to return to Syria thanks to Vladimir Putin's efforts to smash the Islamic State.

Last month Moscow launched a bombing campaign against the twisted State terror group, which controls vast swathes of Syria and has forced thousands of people to flee the country.

Many desperate asylum seekers have made their way to Europe via boats to Greece, with David Cameron agreeing to let 20,000 in Britain over the next five years.

But Russia's bid to wipe out ISIS has been so successful that almost a million Syrians are elected to return to their homeland, Russian politician Dmitry Sablin claimed.


Now if that isn't great press for Putin ( in the UK of all places ) then I don't know what could be...

Shall wait for further developments and confirmations etc...
 
Apparently about 4 hours ago the Headline:
800,000 refugees Returning to Syria:

Src express.co.uk


More than 800,000 refugees RETURNING to Syria as Putin OBLITERATES Islamic State

MORE than 800,000 refugees are set to return to Syria thanks to Vladimir Putin's efforts to smash the Islamic State.

Last month Moscow launched a bombing campaign against the twisted State terror group, which controls vast swathes of Syria and has forced thousands of people to flee the country.

Many desperate asylum seekers have made their way to Europe via boats to Greece, with David Cameron agreeing to let 20,000 in Britain over the next five years.

But Russia's bid to wipe out ISIS has been so successful that almost a million Syrians are elected to return to their homeland, Russian politician Dmitry Sablin claimed.


Now if that isn't great press for Putin ( in the UK of all places ) then I don't know what could be...

Shall wait for further developments and confirmations etc...

Well, this is the part your forgot to mention, "But Russia's bid to wipe out ISIS has been so successful that almost a million Syrians are elected to return to their homeland, Russian politician Dmitry Sablin claimed". This is a story Russian officials and Russia's state controlled media have been pushing for almost a week now. But it isn't true. The author of your article also references an unnamed senator who visited Syria recently. Who is this unnamed senator? It certainly isn't a US senator.

Apparently Russia didn't tell European nations 800,000 Syrian migrants who migrated to Europe are returning to Syria and forgot to tell the immigrants they were returning to Syria. The below referenced article was published today. Contrary to Russian propaganda, European nations are expecting one million more Syrian immigrants. And Germany is in negotiations with Turkey to get Turkey to close its borders in order to slow the flow of Syrian immigrants.

October 30, 2015
"ONE MILLION more migrants could head for Europe over the winter because of the Syrian war, warns Turkey, as official says the EU risks 'disintegration' if it fails to tackle the crisis

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ration-fails-tackle-crisis.html#ixzz3q40EmiML
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...all-boat-begins-capsize-just-yards-shore.html

Allied nations have conducted far more air attacks on ISIS than Mother Russia, and the US has even conducted special operations raids on the compounds of several senior ISIS officials. And today, much to Putin's chagrin, the US announced it will be sending US troops into Syria.

Putin is just doing what he has always done (e.g. staged pictures with drugged tigers and bears, etc.). Putin is using Syria as a prop to further the greater glory of Mother Putin and beat the drums of Russian nationalism. Additionally, Russia has bombed very few ISIS targets. Russia has mostly focused its bombing on the Free Syrian Army, not ISIS. I don't think Putin is fooling anyone other than the Russian people and a few Western Russian apologists.

Economic conditions in Russia are getting worse and the long-term outlook is negative as well. Mother Russia is headed for another brick wall and is repeating previous mistakes. In trying to repeat Russia's self perceived glory days of the Soviet era, it is also repeating the mistakes of the Soviet era.

http://money.cnn.com/2015/09/28/news/economy/obama-putin-russia-economy/

In the coming years, I expect Russia's economy will continue to decline and Putin will become more repressive. Crooks like Putin can never relinquish power, just as mafiosos can never retire.
 
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And I just want to add, the notion that 800,000 Syrian refugees would be persuaded to return to Syria after risking their lives and the lives of their families to flee Syria just because Russia dropped a few hundred bombs over the course of a few weeks is patently absurd and naive. Syria's problems are much deeper and cannot be solved by dropping a few hundred bombs on top of the thousands which have already been dropped on Syria. But, hey, Russians eat this shit up and that's why Putin and his Russian comrades do it.
 
Well, unfortunately for you, you have pages of prior posts which say otherwise. You are not being honest.
If you think so, quote the claims which you think are in contradiction. As usually, you don't, thus, your claim is simply defamation.
As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, NATO isn't in the news business.
Irrelevant, because what I name NATO propaganda media are, of course, not media owned by the NATO, but media who make, for whatever reasons, NATO propaganda.
China's system only applies to yuan cross border transactions. ... China has no love of Mother Russia
So what, who cares, what matters is that it is possible to make payments.
I understand that you don't like the fact that Russia cooperating with China is a powerful enough source to fight the US empire. Your cheap attempts to present such a cooperation as unequal, harming somehow Russian interests, are laughable. If the US would not be that stupid, they would not fight two enemies at the same time, almost forcing them to unify.
I assume you mean the Ricardian Equivalence
I don't. And, please, if you make claims about what Putin tells, support such claims with links to transcripts of Putin speeches. As usual, you cannot, because your claims are primitive defamations.
Western powers have confronted Russia's aggression, not with aggression but with isolation.
http://i100.independent.co.uk/artic...-see-vladimir-putin-this-excited--b1xmIvPt1Px
Except he hasn't. Putin wasn't in favor of negotiations before or when he invaded and annexed Crimea.
Liar. The agreement between Janukowitsch and the opposition at the 21. February http://www.msz.gov.pl/resource/1c430b04-742e-4e3f-83be-a675d3ba2d7d:JCR
was signed also by Russia, which has actively supported such a peaceful agreement.

The US made a different choice, following their "f... the EU" recommendations the Nazis violated the agreement already 22. February and installed a junta. What followed was natural, the eastern parts did not want to submit to a fascist junta, and the separation of Crimea was the natural result, a few days have been sufficient for the local people to force the parlaments of Sewastopol and Crimea to elect separatist leaders, and there were only two possibilities - separation or civil war. Russia helped Crimea to prevent a civil war, that's all.

Strelkow was a retired FSB guy. He did not follow Russian orders, that's why Russia later forced him to resign, despite the fact that he was a very popular leader at that time in Novorussia. And initially the uprising was organized by the oligarchs behind Janukowitch, namely Achmetow, Efremow and others, with their power bases in Donezk and Lugansk, and weapons bought from hypercorrupt Ukrainian army.

Russia started to support them only later, and was almost forced to do this by Russian public opinion. There was, in fact, a quite strong public discussion, with a strong support for far more radical action, full of accusations of betrayal of Novorossia by Putin.
 
And I just want to add, the notion that 800,000 Syrian refugees would be persuaded to return to Syria after risking their lives and the lives of their families to flee Syria just because Russia dropped a few hundred bombs over the course of a few weeks is patently absurd and naive. Syria's problems are much deeper and cannot be solved by dropping a few hundred bombs on top of the thousands which have already been dropped on Syria.
Of course, but nobody expects that the problem will be solved very fast.

But, of course, for all those who are not Wahabi fanatics, a major reason to leave Syria has gone away - the fear that the Wahabi terrorists win. Given the losses of Assad during the last year, this was that many people have feared. And if you are a Christian or Alewite in Syria, it would be simply necessary for you to emigrate in this case.

And the fear that the US will start bombing Assad's troops - that means, bombing Damascus - also vanished.
 
Of course, but nobody expects that the problem will be solved very fast.

Well, then your next paragraph is a contradiction.

But, of course, for all those who are not Wahabi fanatics, a major reason to leave Syria has gone away - the fear that the Wahabi terrorists win. Given the losses of Assad during the last year, this was that many people have feared. And if you are a Christian or Alewite in Syria, it would be simply necessary for you to emigrate in this case.

Didn't you just write Syria's problem would not be solved quickly? Now you are saying the major reason for fleeing Syria has vanished. So which is it? Additionally, the people fleeing Syria aren't just Christian or Alawites. There are Muslim too and probably overwhelmingly Muslim, given 74% of the country's residents are Sunni Muslims.
.
And the fear that the US will start bombing Assad's troops - that means, bombing Damascus - also vanished.

Except, that really wasn't on the table and Russia's presence doesn't take it off the table. Damascus is getting bombed daily, but not by the US. So clearly bombing of Damascus is not off the table given Russia is there and the bombing continues. The US threatened Assad once when it demanded Assad surrender his chemical weapons and Assad complied. The US hasn't threatened Assad since.
 
If you think so, quote the claims which you think are in contradiction. As usually, you don't, thus, your claim is simply defamation.

I have already pointed your contradictions out explicitly. I suggest you go back and read them. But you cannot do that. Because you refuse to see or recognize inconvenient facts. You have consistently summarily dismissed the plethora of inconvenient facts as NATO propaganda. You have been repeatedly challenged to support your accusations with evidence and you have repeatedly failed to even attempt to do so, because you can't. Because the facts you summarily are not NATO propaganda. They are just facts, facts you don't like.

Irrelevant, because what I name NATO propaganda media are, of course, not media owned by the NATO, but media who make, for whatever reasons, NATO propaganda.

Yeah, unlike Mother Russia, NATO isn't in the media business. Unlike Mother Russia, NATO isn't in the propaganda business. So now you want the world to believe that "media" for whatever reason create NATO propaganda? That doesn't make sense. Just because Western media, not constrained by any government, publish facts which expose the truth about Mother Russia, it doesn't make those facts, the truth, NATO propaganda. Your problem is you cannot disprove those many inconvenient facts you want to dismiss as NATO propaganda.

So what, who cares, what matters is that it is possible to make payments.
I understand that you don't like the fact that Russia cooperating with China is a powerful enough source to fight the US empire. Your cheap attempts to present such a cooperation as unequal, harming somehow Russian interests, are laughable. If the US would not be that stupid, they would not fight two enemies at the same time, almost forcing them to unify.

Well, if China wants to lose its assets in every country but China, yeah so what? Maybe Mother Russia should just drop the ruble and use China's renmimbi as its currency. The fact is Russia is an unequal relationship. As previously pointed out to you, Mother Russia has been forced into selling military hardware to China which it had previously refused to sell. The Sino-Russian border conflict was settled in China's favor. Russia was forced to agree to constructing new oil wells and pipelines for China's exclusive use. And now China's economy is in decline. So China's need for oil is declining and that's one reason why the Chinese-Russian oil deal is falling behind. China's economy is about 6 times larger than Mother Russia's. China's military is larger and more modern than Russia's. And when Russia invaded, occupied, and annexed Crimea, China didn't come to Mother Russia's aid. China didn't support Russia's aggression. You are kidding yourself if you think the relationship between Russia and China is a relationship of equals, because it clearly isn't.

I don't. And, please, if you make claims about what Putin tells, support such claims with links to transcripts of Putin speeches. As usual, you cannot, because your claims are primitive defamations.

Oh, then what did you mean when you said you know "Ricardo's theorem" and how is that relevant.

As for what "Putin tells", I have provided supporting evidence. Don't you remember? You dismissed it as NATO propaganda. And as you have been told many times before, the truth isn't a defamation. It's just the truth.

Liar. The agreement between Janukowitsch and the opposition at the 21. February http://www.msz.gov.pl/resource/1c430b04-742e-4e3f-83be-a675d3ba2d7d:JCR
was signed also by Russia, which has actively supported such a peaceful agreement.

To the contrary, it is you who is being dishonest yet again. It is you who has and continues to lie. Unfortunately for you, ad hominem will not help you here. I'm not in Mother Russia. You do realize the above agreement you referenced was signed after Russia had illegally invaded, occupied and annexed portions of Ukraine (e.g. Crimea) and after Western sanctions had been placed on Mother Russia and at the time the agreement was signed, Mother Russia was under threat of further Western sanctions if it didn't cease its aggression in Eastern Ukraine. Which makes my point, Western sanctions brought Putin to the negotiating table and it probably halted his Ukrainian invasion and occupation plans.

The US made a different choice, following their "f... the EU" recommendations the Nazis violated the agreement already 22. February and installed a junta. What followed was natural, the eastern parts did not want to submit to a fascist junta, and the separation of Crimea was the natural result, a few days have been sufficient for the local people to force the parlaments of Sewastopol and Crimea to elect separatist leaders, and there were only two possibilities - separation or civil war. Russia helped Crimea to prevent a civil war, that's all.

Dude, are you on drugs?

Strelkow was a retired FSB guy. He did not follow Russian orders, that's why Russia later forced him to resign, despite the fact that he was a very popular leader at that time in Novorussia. And initially the uprising was organized by the oligarchs behind Janukowitch, namely Achmetow, Efremow and others, with their power bases in Donezk and Lugansk, and weapons bought from hypercorrupt Ukrainian army.

Oh, and how do you know he didn't follow Russia orders? The fact is he and his fellow FSB officers and Russian citizens led the so called Ukrainian rebels. In an interview he said he "is" not "was" an FSB officer.

"Igor Girkin, known as "Strelkov," said in the interview that he is an "FSB colonel" and that rebel commanders in eastern Ukraine "were fighting with one another," according to a transcript published by interviewer Aleksandr Chalenko." http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-strelkov-fsb-ties-russian-media/26721902.html

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin


"Alexander Borodai, prime minister of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic (DPR), said that his forces were getting support from the Russian people, but not from the state." http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28450303

Alexander Yurevich Borodai (Russian: Алекса́ндр Ю́рьевич Борода́й; IPA: [ɐlʲɪˈksandr ˈjʉrʲɪvʲɪtɕ bərɐˈdaj], Ukrainian: Алєксандр Юр'євіч Бородай; born in Moscow, July 25, 1972)[3] is a former Prime Minister of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic that declared its independence from Ukraine on 12 May 2014.[4][5][6][7] He was appointed to the post by the republic's self-proclaimed Supreme Council on May 16, 2014.[8] Borodai, a Russian citizen, had earlier worked as a political adviser to Sergey Aksyonov, the prime minister of the Republic of Crimea.[7] On 7 August 2014 Borodai announced his resignation.[9] He was succeeded byAlexander Zakharchenko[9] whose self-appointed Deputy Prime Minister he became.[10] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Borodai

The fact is the leader of the so called Ukrainian "rebels" were Russian citizens and state security officers. If this were an organic and true rebellion one would think Eastern Ukrainians would be led by Eastern Ukrainians rather than Russians.

Russia started to support them only later, and was almost forced to do this by Russian public opinion. There was, in fact, a quite strong public discussion, with a strong support for far more radical action, full of accusations of betrayal of Novorossia by Putin.

Except that isn't what the facts say. As demonstrated in the previous paragraph, the first leaders of these so called rebels were Russian citizens and more than that they were Russian state security officers. They weren't Ukrainian.
 
Well, then your next paragraph is a contradiction.
No, because what I have described are two points, were the Russian action has already changed a lot. But there are, of course, also some other problems, namely, a lot of terrorists, occupying a lot of territory of the state, and supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US. These problems I have not mentioned, and to solve them needs a lot of time.
Now you are saying the major reason for fleeing Syria has vanished. So which is it?
One or two reasons disappeared. There are others, namely the civil war and the terrorists.
Additionally, the people fleeing Syria aren't just Christian or Alawites. There are Muslim too and probably overwhelmingly Muslim, given 74% of the country's residents are Sunni Muslims.
Alawites are also Muslims. Anyway, it was not my claim that all reasons to emigrate have disappeared. But a few of them have.
Except, that really wasn't on the table and Russia's presence doesn't take it off the table.
Of course, for a believer of NATO propaganda it wasn't on the table, because no NATO propaganda media has written about this. The information that this was on the table, and the negotiations about this have been already close to a decision to start this, I have found on a, for you, completely unreliable internet source. So, forget about this.
As previously pointed out to you, Mother Russia has been forced into selling military hardware to China which it had previously refused to sell. The Sino-Russian border conflict was settled in China's favor.
LOL, the Russian military-industrial complex whines because it has to work now for the Chinese. And the border conflict was anyway about nothing, some islands in a river, so I will not even check if you, as usual, lie about this.
Russia was forced to agree to constructing new oil wells and pipelines for China's exclusive use.
Yea, horrible exclusive for little China. Even more horrible, Germany has forced Gazprom to build Northstream II, again through the baltic sea, exclusive for German use, poor Poland, Balticum and Ukraine get nothing.
China's military is larger and more modern than Russia's.
YMMD.
Oh, then what did you mean when you said you know "Ricardo's theorem" and how is that relevant.
I mean his theorems about comparative advantage, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage which proves false most of the classical arguments of various politicians for isolation, protective tariffs and so on, against free trade. Which is, of course, relevant once the discussion was about usefulness and harm caused by economic sanctions.
As for what "Putin tells", I have provided supporting evidence. Don't you remember? You dismissed it as NATO propaganda.
Of course, because NATO press is known to distort translations to make them sound like it fits into their propaganda. I have seen such an example myself, with a speech of Yanukovitsch, which was translated - and consistently, I have checked, by many different, German as well as English, NATO papers - as if he would oppose the occupation of Crimea, which was completely off. What he has really said was that he was disturbed by the decision of the people of Crimea to leave the Ukraine, but he understands why they have made this decision.

So, sorry, but NATO sources have to be rejected as unreliable. Which is not a problem, because you always have the original speeches, find them on youtube, almost all important speeches you can find there, link them, find accurate transcripts, reliable translations, and quote them.

About the agreement between Janukowitsch and the opposition at the 21. February http://www.msz.gov.pl/resource/1c430b04-742e-4e3f-83be-a675d3ba2d7d:JCR
You do realize the above agreement you referenced was signed after Russia had illegally invaded, occupied and annexed portions of Ukraine (e.g. Crimea) and after Western sanctions had been placed on Mother Russia and at the time the agreement was signed, Mother Russia was under threat of further Western sanctions if it didn't cease its aggression in Eastern Ukraine.
No. Because, as you can see in the text, it was signed 21. February 2014. You have, obviously, no information about history, else you would know that this was the last day Yanukowitsch was in power, the next day, 22. February, there was the coup in Kiew and Yanukowitsch had to flee for his live. During the next week, the people in Crimea took power, and the parliaments elected new, secessionist, leaders, and only 28. February there were the first sights of the polite guys from the Russian speznas. The referendum was only later, and the civil war even much later. So, learn history.
Oh, and how do you know he didn't follow Russia orders? The fact is he and his fellow FSB officers and Russian citizens led the so called Ukrainian rebels. In an interview he said he "is" not "was" an FSB officer.
And even your (BTW extremely unreliable) source does not hide the fact that he worked for FSB only up to March 2013, thus, was already on pension over a year. Even your english wiki claims only "Ukrainian authorities have called him a retired colonel of the GRU".

How I know that he did not follow? Because I have followed the news at the time when he resigned. There was a lot of speculation in the Novorossian media about this, and the consensus was that it was the Kreml which forced him to resign.
The fact is the leader of the so called Ukrainian "rebels" were Russian citizens and state security officers. If this were an organic and true rebellion one would think Eastern Ukrainians would be led by Eastern Ukrainians rather than Russians.
The problem is that "Eastern Ukrainians" and "Russians" are in no way different nations. The differences between Eastern Ukrainian and Western Ukrainian people are much greater than those between Eastern Ukrainians and Russians. I know this, from personal experience, lived in Charkow as well as Odessa some time, played soccer with the local guys, these are Russian people, with a tendency to use h instead of g, that's all the difference, I would guess the difference between Northerners and Southerners in the US are greater. So, if there is a border between different nations, than this is not the Ukrainian border, but the border between Novorossia and the remaining part of the Ukraine.

And so it is quite natural that Russians volunteers helped them. And, of course, Russians are not Germans, they don't care about international law if Russians in the Ukraine need help, in a situation where the border was nothing more than a green line, non-existent outside the checkpoints on the big roads.
 
...
The problem is that "Eastern Ukrainians" and "Russians" are in no way different nations. The differences between Eastern Ukrainian and Western Ukrainian people are much greater than those between Eastern Ukrainians and Russians. .

see post 179
 
No, because what I have described are two points, were the Russian action has already changed a lot. But there are, of course, also some other problems, namely, a lot of terrorists, occupying a lot of territory of the state, and supported by Turkey, Saudi Arabia and the US. These problems I have not mentioned, and to solve them needs a lot of time.

Oh, what exactly has Russian action changed exactly? Nothing. The US continues to conduct bombing operations within Syria. The US has continued and escalated US military operations in Syria. So what change exactly has Russia wrought? Nothing.

One or two reasons disappeared. There are others, namely the civil war and the terrorists.

A few hundred bombs over the course of 2 weeks has changed nothing and contrary to Russian claims, 800,000 Syrians are not returning home much less because of Russian involvement.

Alawites are also Muslims. Anyway, it was not my claim that all reasons to emigrate have disappeared. But a few of them have.

Yeah, Shia Muslim, and as I previously wrote, 75% of the Syrian population are Sunni Muslim. So the vast majority of Syrian refugees are Sunni Muslims, not the Alawite or Christians you previously referenced.

Of course, for a believer of NATO propaganda it wasn't on the table, because no NATO propaganda media has written about this. The information that this was on the table, and the negotiations about this have been already close to a decision to start this, I have found on a, for you, completely unreliable internet source. So, forget about this.

This relates to your assertion Russia's involvement nullified any potential US military strike on Damascus. As previously pointed out, it doesn't. The US threatened Assad's regime only once and Assad complied. The US is still flying bombing missions over Syria as it did before, and today the US announced it was sending troops into Syria and those troops will be stationed in Syria.

LOL, the Russian military-industrial complex whines because it has to work now for the Chinese. And the border conflict was anyway about nothing, some islands in a river, so I will not even check if you, as usual, lie about this.

Who said Russia's "military-industrial complex" whines because it has to work for the Chinese? Frankly, it's irrelevant. The fact is, in desperation, Russia has sold some of its sensitive (i.e. secret) military hardware to China it didn't want to sell on terms it didn't want to take. Russia took deals it had previously rejected. And your were given the supporting references.

Yea, horrible exclusive for little China. Even more horrible, Germany has forced Gazprom to build Northstream II, again through the baltic sea, exclusive for German use, poor Poland, Balticum and Ukraine get nothing.

Well, the Sino-Russian oil deal does very clearly state, per previous references, Russia must build oil wells and pipelines for the exclusive use and benefit of China. That's not NorthstreamII. Northstream II is a natural gas pipeline. It's not an oil well. It doesn't restrict the natural gas wells. Russia can sell its natural gas to anyone. So your are comparing apples to oranges. It's a fallacious comparison.


Well good, I'm glad you recognize China's military is larger and more modern than Russia's.

I mean his theorems about comparative advantage, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Comparative_advantage which proves false most of the classical arguments of various politicians for isolation, protective tariffs and so on, against free trade. Which is, of course, relevant once the discussion was about usefulness and harm caused by economic sanctions.

Well it isn't Ricardo's theorem. It's commonly referred to as comparative advantage and it has absolutely nothing to do with the usefulness of sanctions. Sanctions are used as an alternative to war. Sanctions are not protective tariffs "and so on". Sanctions are not tariffs - period. War is infinitely more costly than economic sanctions. The world doesn't need Russia, but Mother Russia needs the world.

Ironically, comparative advantage is the reason why Putin's go it alone strategy is doomed to failure. What Putin is doing is in fact isolating Mother Russia. Mother Russia is being shunned as a pariah state because it has chosen to invade, occupy and annex neighboring states. Those actions cannot be condoned.

Of course, because NATO press is known to distort translations to make them sound like it fits into their propaganda. I have seen such an example myself, with a speech of Yanukovitsch, which was translated - and consistently, I have checked, by many different, German as well as English, NATO papers - as if he would oppose the occupation of Crimea, which was completely off. What he has really said was that he was disturbed by the decision of the people of Crimea to leave the Ukraine, but he understands why they have made this decision.

So, sorry, but NATO sources have to be rejected as unreliable. Which is not a problem, because you always have the original speeches, find them on youtube, almost all important speeches you can find there, link them, find accurate transcripts, reliable translations, and quote them.

Except they are not NATO sources. And you have been repeatedly challenged to support your contention they are and you have repeatedly failed to even try. Because you know full well they are credible and you are wrong. Labeling inconvenient facts as NATO allows you to disregard fact and reason.

About the agreement between Janukowitsch and the opposition at the 21. February http://www.msz.gov.pl/resource/1c430b04-742e-4e3f-83be-a675d3ba2d7d:JCR

No. Because, as you can see in the text, it was signed 21. February 2014. You have, obviously, no information about history, else you would know that this was the last day Yanukowitsch was in power, the next day, 22. February, there was the coup in Kiew and Yanukowitsch had to flee for his live. During the next week, the people in Crimea took power, and the parliaments elected new, secessionist, leaders, and only 28. February there were the first sights of the polite guys from the Russian speznas. The referendum was only later, and the civil war even much later. So, learn history.

That's funny coming from you. :) But I suppose not to unexpected.

The document you reference is bogus, because it occurred prior to Victor Yanukovich's flight to Mother Russia, impeachment and removal from office. The agreement was Putin's attempt to keep Yanukovich in office. And it occurred before Putin and his little green men invaded Ukraine. The fact remains, Putin was pressured by Western sanctions to curtail his invasion of Ukraine and come to the bargaining table and sign a cease fire accord.

And even your (BTW extremely unreliable) source does not hide the fact that he worked for FSB only up to March 2013, thus, was already on pension over a year. Even your english wiki claims only "Ukrainian authorities have called him a retired colonel of the GRU".
So tape of the guy's admission while in his office in land under his control is unreliable? The fact is he described his status as a current Russian state security officer. The fact is the rebel leaders were Russian citizens and Russian state security officers.

How I know that he did not follow? Because I have followed the news at the time when he resigned. There was a lot of speculation in the Novorossian media about this, and the consensus was that it was the Kreml which forced him to resign.

The problem is that "Eastern Ukrainians" and "Russians" are in no way different nations. The differences between Eastern Ukrainian and Western Ukrainian people are much greater than those between Eastern Ukrainians and Russians. I know this, from personal experience, lived in Charkow as well as Odessa some time, played soccer with the local guys, these are Russian people, with a tendency to use h instead of g, that's all the difference, I would guess the difference between Northerners and Southerners in the US are greater. So, if there is a border between different nations, than this is not the Ukrainian border, but the border between Novorossia and the remaining part of the Ukraine.

And so it is quite natural that Russians volunteers helped them. And, of course, Russians are not Germans, they don't care about international law if Russians in the Ukraine need help, in a situation where the border was nothing more than a green line, non-existent outside the checkpoints on the big roads.

Except Eastern Ukraine and Russia are two different countries. Yeah, I think we have all seen Russians don't care about international law. :) I think that is pretty obvious.
 
And I just want to add, the notion that 800,000 Syrian refugees would be persuaded to return to Syria after risking their lives and the lives of their families to flee Syria just because Russia dropped a few hundred bombs over the course of a few weeks is patently absurd and naive. Syria's problems are much deeper and cannot be solved by dropping a few hundred bombs on top of the thousands which have already been dropped on Syria. But, hey, Russians eat this shit up and that's why Putin and his Russian comrades do it.
well...uhm as they often say:
"The proof is in the Putin" hee hee sorry couldn't resist...

One thing Putin has achieved with his recent campaign in Syria is grant the USA a respite from the pressure "to do something ( anything ) " in Syria. Enough time and space to re-organize USA strategy in a reasonable fashion.
I think it will be very interesting to see how the USA capitalizes on the "Putin Diversion"...
 
well...uhm as they often say:
"The proof is in the Putin" hee hee sorry couldn't resist...

One thing Putin has achieved with his recent campaign in Syria is grant the USA a respite from the pressure "to do something ( anything ) " in Syria. Enough time and space to re-organize USA strategy in a reasonable fashion.
I think it will be very interesting to see how the USA capitalizes on the "Putin Diversion"...
Well, it has been about a week now and the pudding doesn't have any returning Syrians in it.

The US is responding by putting troops into Syria to partner with the Kurds. US special forces will be operating with Kurdish forces inside Syria to fight ISIS. Discussions are underway in Vienna to discuss a political settlement in Syria. I think eventually the parties will come to a political settlement. They seem to be making progress.

Syria isn't going to be fixed with bombs or guns. What is really needed is a political solution. It appears all parties have agreed to a secular government. Although there is some serious disagreement with respect to Assad's fate.
 
see post 179

Your map conveniently neglects all the Russian population transplants that occurred while the commies were in charge. In any case, if those Russian colonists are to be naturalized in the lands they and their descendants are occupying, and are even to be given sovereign national rights in those lands, then how come the same logic doesn't apply to all the ethnic minorities seeking independence outside Moscow?
 
Well, the US is responding by putting troops into Syria to partner with the Kurds. US special forces will be operating with Kurdish forces inside Syria to fight ISIS. Discussions are underway in Vienna to discuss a political settlement in Syria. I think eventually the parties will come to a political settlement. They seem to be making progress.

Syria isn't going to be fixed with bombs or guns. What is really needed is a political solution. It appears all parties have agreed to a secular government. Although there is some serious disagreement with respect to Assad's fate.
Agrees!
I do think however that it is important to differentiate the two main military issues. ( the refugee issue put aside for the moment)
  1. Syria as a nation
  2. IS as an extremist religio genocidal death cult
It appears that the powers that be, have been at cross purpose. Russia seeking to support the Assad regime and the US led coalition the degrading of IS.

The recent decision to deploy USA SF boots on the ground appears to be devoted to the IS issue.

There are a couple noteworthy things to mention:
  1. The USA has publicly announced it's decision. ( not clandestine and the deployment is public knowledge)
  2. The USA has clearly stated the intent of such deployment

Other media reports ( credibility difficult to ascertain) are indicating that IS is verging on total collapse ( New car sales to IS are plummeting ) Strong indications of increased IS paranoia on check points etc with many requests for IS soldiers to be smuggled out of the area. Turkish border control has been significantly consolidated. The IS leadership appears to be decimated.
( The possibility of significant IS infiltration into the other fighting groups has been minimized by the Russian offensive.)

Having boots on the ground to assist the Kurds in their campaign including air strike targeting ( assumption ) to avoid the disaster of the MSF hospital hit from being repeated. makes a lot of sense IMO.

The main motivation for the IS fanaticism has been the supposed reincarnation of the spiritual leader Mahdi in the form of self proclaimed leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi who appears to be no longer active ( most possibly deceased )
With out the Mahdi, IS has no real purpose...IMO
 
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Well, it has been about a week now and the pudding doesn't have any returning Syrians in it.

The US is responding by putting troops into Syria to partner with the Kurds. US special forces will be operating with Kurdish forces inside Syria to fight ISIS. Discussions are underway in Vienna to discuss a political settlement in Syria. I think eventually the parties will come to a political settlement. They seem to be making progress.

Syria isn't going to be fixed with bombs or guns. What is really needed is a political solution. It appears all parties have agreed to a secular government. Although there is some serious disagreement with respect to Assad's fate.

I wonder when the Russian media is going to finally admit that their champions just $%!#ed up and got the Assad-held portion of Aleppo completely cut off from the rest of Syria, by those very same ISIS guys they're trying so desperately to avoid targeting. It's not exactly the kind of problem you can bury indefinitely on the back pages of Sputnik International.
 
It appears all parties have agreed to a secular government. Although there is some serious disagreement with respect to Assad's fate.
I do hope the talks are not stalled over "Assad yes Assad No" type impasse because I do not believe Assad is actually the issue and that it is his support base ( esp. military ) that is.
I get the strong impression that Assad is effectively being held "hostage" by this support base and by circumstances generally.... just my impressions and nothing more...
 
The US continues to conduct bombing operations within Syria. The US has continued and escalated US military operations in Syria.
LOL, as usual false: http://www.militarytimes.com/story/military/pentagon/2015/10/27/air-strikes-slow/74676196/ from 6.8 per day in August down to 3.6 in October, and during the last days almost nothing. Russians, in comparison, 934 in the first 23 days, so, 40 per day. Makes a little difference, I think.
So the vast majority of Syrian refugees are Sunni Muslims, not the Alawite or Christians you previously referenced.
I have not made claims about numbers, so, as usually, you lie. My claim is that Alewites and Christians would have to emigrate if the (US-paid) Islamist terrorists win. Else they would be murdered.
The fact is, in desperation, Russia has sold some of its sensitive (i.e. secret) military hardware to China it didn't want to sell on terms it didn't want to take. Russia took deals it had previously rejected.
As if what is secret and what is for sale remains unchanged. To explain: The usual way is to have the most modern variant for yourself, and to sell the older versions. So, if Russia has developed a new variant, the older variant will be sold. Elementary common sense.
Well good, I'm glad you recognize China's military is larger and more modern than Russia's.
Of course it is larger, but it is not more modern.
Ironically, comparative advantage is the reason why Putin's go it alone strategy is doomed to failure.
That's why I have mentioned it. I know the counterarguments against isolation. The only point is that Putin's strategy is not that stupid. It cares about Russian sovereignty, and security in a world where the US can impose every day arbitrary sanctions. In such a world, too much dependence on imports may be harmful, even if in a world without such problems, with free trade, it would be useful.
The document you reference is bogus, because it occurred prior to Victor Yanukovich's flight to Mother Russia, impeachment and removal from office. The agreement was Putin's attempt to keep Yanukovich in office. And it occurred before Putin and his little green men invaded Ukraine. The fact remains, Putin was pressured by Western sanctions to curtail his invasion of Ukraine and come to the bargaining table and sign a cease fire accord.
LOL. So, let's see. A document signed by Yanukowitch, all the opposition leaders, three EU foreign ministers, and a Russian representative is the result of "Putin's attempt" to do something evil. This attempt is bogus because the Ukrainian Nazis (following US recommendations) have violated it the next day. The reaction was the secession of Crimea. After this came the sanctions. Nothing has changed after this, Crimea remains Russian.

And in fact Russia has done what was necessary to force the Ukraine to accept peace talks in Minsk. Namely, it has given enough support to the Novorussians so that the Ukraine army has been beaten so hard that they agreed to peace talks. Two times, Minsk I and Minsk II, were the result of Novorussian victories on the ground. So, quite obvious who really wanted peace, and who has accepted peace only out of impossibility to win.
So tape of the guy's admission while in his office in land under his control is unreliable? The fact is he described his status as a current Russian state security officer.
Tape? Link to the video, please.
Except Eastern Ukraine and Russia are two different countries. Yeah, I think we have all seen Russians don't care about international law. :) I think that is pretty obvious.
Putin cares. Russian volunteers do not care that much. These volunteers have been active already in other wars after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, like in Jugoslawia supporting the Serbs against the NATO aggression, and in Karabach supporting Armenians, and in Pridnestrowje. These are established informal structures, from times long before Putin's rule.
 
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