That seems a lot more like rationalization than being rational. Being told what the rules are and what the consequences are and the basis for them doesn't cause "everyone" to lose their free will. Some will be rule breakers by choice. Some just useless. Heck, even following orders isn't losing your free will. You have a duty to ignore bad orders (Nuremberg trials and "A Few Good Men").
you have already admitted that you would 'obey' only if God were to prove himself,
its like listening to an expert because you have a choice to, and listening to someone who is in authority over you just because he is the boss..and do what he says. I sure as hell would
when he wants us to know something, he will make it clear..the knowledge that is, not the fact that it is from him.But your god is being so subtle he's inscrutable.
if one can get past all the 'do as your told's that is in religion and the bible, one can begin to see the knowledge/wisdom.We are all guessing because the message is so confused and poorly sourced.
unfortunately, like you say "Some will be rule breakers by choice" so there will be lots of ppl who require 'do as your told' (its usually easier to 'do as your told' than to 'think for yourself')
so i will mildly disagree with the 'guessing' part,(he does give us lots of clues)
but i think the second part is a fair statement (confused and poorly sourced)
(see intentional 'think for yourself' errors in bible)