Electric cars are a pipe dream

[Billy T]

This should help sell battery powered cars (via much higher gasoline prices even if the cost of taking typical barrel of oil form Earth were not rapidly increases as more of it come from deep ocean wells.):

"... The Chinese bought 13.6 million vehicles last year, more than any other population on the planet. There are 53.95 million vehicles in the nation now. Yet car ownership won't hit equilibrium levels until roughly 1.04 billion vehicles are on the road. That's a 1,826% increase from today. ..."

From today's Email from: Money Morning <customerservice@moneymorning.com>

13.6 / 53.95 = 0.25021
I.e. more than 1/4 of the cars on China's roads are less than one year old!

India's cars sales are booming too - not sure but expect US will be third largest market soon. Especially if my prediction about a run on the dollar before Halloween 2014 come true. This was the final part of a larger prediction mad about 5 years ago. All but the last part of that prediction has arleady come true - See post 365 here for more details: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2677836&postcount=365

 

[Stoniphi]

…when going over 70mph, the gasoline motor continues to drive the generator but ALSO clutches in to directly drives the wheels…

…Once the engine turns on, the Volt drives exactly the same as it did in pure battery mode. Largely because it’s still in battery mode. Remember, the Volt’s internal combustion engine sends power to the battery, and that power then rotates the big electric motor (aka Traction Motor) that moves the car. True, over 70 miles per hour the motor clutches itself to the generator and helps power the wheels. Much OMG!-ink has been spilled over this fact, but we say big deal. Remember, that engine-assist makes the Volt more efficient, i.e. the entire point of the Volt…

Your link doesn't actually state that the IC motor directly drives the wheels, rather it states that over 70 mph the IC motor clutches into the generator that drives the "big electric motor" that drives the wheels. I must assume because the battery doesn't have enough stored energy to do this on its own at those speeds.

Slightly different engineering, but not a direct mechanical linkage to the wheels like the Prius has.

 

[billvon]

Your link doesn't actually state that the IC motor directly drives the wheels, rather it states that over 70 mph the IC motor clutches into the generator that drives the "big electric motor" . . . Slightly different engineering, but not a direct mechanical linkage to the wheels like the Prius has.

It is very much like a Prius. In a Prius, two electric motor/generators and one IC engine are directly connected to the wheels via a planetary gearing system. Any two of the three can drive the wheels; the IC engine can also charge the battery regardless of what the wheels do.


In a Volt, two electric motor/generators and one IC engine are directly connected to the wheels via a planetary gearing system. Any two of the three can drive the wheels; the IC engine can also charge the battery regardless of what the wheels do.

The big difference between the two is that the Volt is a pluggable hybrid, and thus it keeps the IC engine off as much as possible as long as there is power in the battery. However, at highway speeds, the IC engine does indeed directly drive the wheels. (Which is a good thing; more efficient that way.)

From hybridoto.com:

====================
DETROIT � It's the big headline currently on GM's media news site:
"2011 Chevrolet Volt Reinvents Automotive Transportation IN A Complete No Compromises Electric Package"
Um well no. Even conceding that all engineering projects involve compromise and chalking that phrase up to marketing hyperbole the Chevy Volt isn't as electric as GM pretends it is. And it isn't as electric as GM has been saying for the past three years. You know GM statements like this one:
"The Chevrolet Volt is not a hybrid. It is a one-of-a-kind all-electrically driven vehicle designed and engineered to operate in all climates."
In fact the Chevy Volt is a plug-in hybrid and it has more in common with conventional "series-parallel" hybrids like the Toyota Prius than the marketing hype led us to believe. There are circumstances in which the Volt operates with the internal combustion engine directly driving the front wheels. That's right like a Prius.
=====================

Why has GM been claiming all along that it's really an EV with a series IC/electric range extender? Because:

==================
Why has the complex drive-train engineering of the Chevy Volt become a headline in the popular press? Why does anyone care whether the Volt is an EREV (extended range electric vehicle) or a series hybrid? Simply put, it’s the difference between whether Government Motors gets a $7,500 tax credit — or just $3500 per Volt sold. It’s the difference between whether the sticker says $41,000 or “just” $33,500.
===============

 

[Billy T]

... Slightly different engineering, but not a direct mechanical linkage to the wheels like the Prius has.

No part of gas motor's shaft HP remains as Shaft HP mechanically linked to the wheels.

“…In charge sustaining mode, the gas engine goes on and clutches to the generator causing it to produce electricity to continue powering the main motor. However of particular interest, when going above 70 mph in charge sustaining mode, and the generator gets coupled to the drivetrain, the gas engine participates in the motive force. GM says the engine never drives the wheels all by itself, but will participate in this particular situation in the name of efficiency, which is improved by 10 to 15 percent. …”
From: http://gm-volt.com/2010/10/11/motor-trend-explains-the-volts-powertrain/

Let mer explain that to you in other words: The gasoline motor supplies HP to the generator shaft but when more power than the electric motor can supply is needed (climping hill at high sped or going 70 or more mph on the level) the other end of that generator shaft directly drives the wheels. I.e. if gas engine is making 140hp, perhaps 80HP is making electricity and 60 HP is making drive shaft torque.

“…While in this series mode at higher speeds and loads, (typically above 30 miles per hour (48 km/h) and/or under hard acceleration) the gasoline engine can engage mechanically to the output from the transmission and assist both electric motors to drive the wheels, …”
From: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chevrolet_Volt

“…in "charge-sustaining" mode—the smaller electric motor is also affixed to the running gas engine. In effect, the gas engine supplies power directly to the transmission, which is just like a parallel hybrid. …”
From: http://www.popularmechanics.com/cars/alternative-fuel/cells/chevy-volt-hybrid-drive-system

These first three google hits* should be enough but there are lots more. I think what confused you is that most of the time the full out put of the gas engine does only make electricity, but when it needs more torque part of gas engine output does remain mechanical power applied directly to the wheels.
----------
*search phrase was: "Volt powertrain when over 70 mph"

 

[adoucette]

Why has GM been claiming all along that it's really an EV with a series IC/electric range extender? Because:

==================
Why has the complex drive-train engineering of the Chevy Volt become a headline in the popular press? Why does anyone care whether the Volt is an EREV (extended range electric vehicle) or a series hybrid? Simply put, it’s the difference between whether Government Motors gets a $7,500 tax credit — or just $3500 per Volt sold. It’s the difference between whether the sticker says $41,000 or “just” $33,500.
===============

Totatl BS.

The rebate for plug in EVs is based ONLY on battery capactiy, not at all about how the drive train works.

The Volt gets the $7,500 rebate because it has a 16 kWh battery.

http://www.irs.gov/pub/irs-drop/n-09-54.pdf

Arthur

 

[Billy T]

From adoucette's link: “The credit is equal to the sum of: (1) $2,500, plus (2) $417 for each kilowatt hour of traction battery capacity in excess of 4 kilowatt hours. Section 30D(b)(1) limits the amount of the credit allowed for a vehicle to amounts ranging from $7,500 to $15,000, depending on the gross vehicle weight rating of the vehicle”

Thus a qualified light car with 15kwh (11 more than 4) would get rebate of 2,500 +4170 +417 = 2500+4587 = $7,087 but with 16kwh it gets 7087 +417 = $7,504 except max is $7,500

Clearly government regulations, not engineers, are designing electric car battery capacity. What a crazy way to run a country! Central planning is what killed the USSR and when the complex tax code is considered as central planning* the US has more of that than the USSR ever had. Lawyers are replacing engineers for technical decisions.

The top leadership of China's CCP are all trained engineers, except for one who was educated as an geologist. Not one lawyer in the group, but 100% of US's top level in the administration were educated as lawyers and more than 90% of the Congress were. No wonder the US is in trouble.

---------------
* Essentially no important decision you or corporations make is not strongly influenced by the IRS rules - For example, buying a home vs. renting. We just don't honestly call it "central planning."

 

[Stoniphi]

Sadly, I must agree.

 

[Billy T]

{from post 1243}... more than 1/4 of the cars on China's roads are less than one year old!

India's cars sales are booming too - not sure but expect US will be third largest market soon. Especially if my prediction about a run on the dollar before Halloween 2014 come true. This was the final part of a larger prediction made about 5 years ago. All but the last part of that prediction has arleady come true - See post 365 here for more details: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2677836&postcount=365

Here are some absolute Chinese oil consumption facts:

"... China reported a record surge of crude oil imports in 2010, buying more than 200 million tons of overseas crude. The country's overseas crude dependence ratio surpassed 55 percent, ... The report was issued by the China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) Research Institute of Economics and Technology. It said that China's strong economic performance drove soaring oil demand in 2010. The nation consumed about 455 million tons of oil last year, up 11.4 percent, or 47 million tons, from the previous year. ..."

From: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2011-01/24/content_11906584.htm

Anyone have 2010's US oil consumption facts? (percent imported etc.)

 

[adoucette]

Clearly government regulations, not engineers, are designing electric car battery capacity. What a crazy way to run a country! Central planning is what killed the USSR and when the complex tax code is considered as central planning* the US has more of that than the USSR ever had. Lawyers are replacing engineers for technical decisions.

More pessimistic BS.
Of course it's not the same as central planning in the USSR and you know that Billy.

So the question that lingers, why the hatred for the US?

Or is this nothing more then your pathetic effort to make your predictions come true?

Give it a rest.

Arthur

 

[X-Man2]

Chrysler recently announced they and the Environmental Protection Agency have teamed up to produce a few green Chrysler vehicles that use an entirely new hybrid system.Originally developed by the EPA labs it uses engine overrun torque to capture otherwise wasted energy.The article goes further in detail on this approach,worth the read.

This is beyond my understanding enough that I would like to get your guy's comments,ongoing talk etc on this.Thanks.

http://tinyurl.com/4f8ksod

 

[X-Man2]

More pessimistic BS.
Of course it's not the same as central planning in the USSR and you know that Billy.

So the question that lingers, why the hatred for the US?

Or is this nothing more then your pathetic effort to make your predictions come true?

Give it a rest.

Arthur

It really sucks adoucette that things are the way they are in the US.I assume it sucks just as bad from Billy's point of view to see a great nation such as the US that has lead the world in almost every classification for decades.If you care to look,if you care to research,if you care for the answers,it's obvious the US has taken the wrong road due to greed,gross overspending,war happy,the big one a nation ran on politics that has all but destroyed the US,huge loss of manufacturing,crumbling infrastructure, banking scam,big oil, and on and on.It's right in front of us,it's happening now.All Billy is doing is simply breaking it down so the layman like us can understand it,it gives us an opportunity to watch it play out play by play so later we cannot say "what the hell happened" It allows the wiser of us to prepare for the inevitable,it helps insulate us from total shock and bewilderment many will feel when it finally comes tumbling down.Right now the US is like a house of cards with those in power each pulling a card from the house.What happens when to many cards are pulled from the house? Of course it all comes crumbling down in short order,in total collapse.What does history tell us about Nations that were at one time or another "King Of The Mountain? Hint: All have fallen off the mountain! What you see going on in the US day to day,year to year SHOULD make you ANGRY!

 

[ElectricFetus]

Here is a video on hydraulic hybrids:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rPSob1gH_wk
Apparently UPS has been testing them on some of their trucks since 2008.

The advantage of it is that it uses cheap materials: no batteries made of nickel or lithium, no electric motors with lots of copper and rare earth metals, dis-advantage is its energy density is less then batteries and it is less efficient.

 

[adoucette]

No, Billy is trying very hard to convince you it is happening, to make you THINK the US is going down the drain.

It's not.

Today, we are 5% of the world's population.

We have by far the largest manufacturing economy in the world and our GDP is 25% of the entire world.

Arthur

 

[ElectricFetus]

The US is falling, just really really slowly, Billy would have us believe the Chinese will own us as pets by 2015, in actuality China won't overtake the USA economically for many decades and even when they do they won't dominate over us, our economies are already to intertwined to even imagine anything akin to classical imperialism, several decades from now globalization could possibly achieve the age old dream of world peace, as everyone will be too reliant on everyone else to every use military action. Finally the Chinese are not hive mind aliens they are humans, they think like us, and they fuck like us (I know the latter to be true ) they want to live well like us and live with us, and their success will be all our success.

 

[adoucette]

The US is falling, just really really slowly, Billy would have us believe the Chinese will own us as pets by 2015, in actuality China won't overtake the USA economically for many decades and even when they do they won't dominate over us, our economies are already to intertwined to even imagine anything akin to classical imperialism, several decades from now globalization could possibly achieve the age old dream of world peace, as everyone will be too reliant on everyone else to every use military action. Finally the Chinese are not hive mind aliens they are humans, they think like us, and they fuck like us (I know the latter to be true ) they want to live well like us and live with us, and their success will be all our success.

I think the US is falling only in the sense that other countries are catching up, indeed smaller more homogenious countries have surpassed the US in many catagories.

But I agree with your general premise, the gloablization of the world economies is NOT a zero sum game. A wealthy China makes the world a better place, not a worse place.
It's interesting, at one time as Germany and Japan grew back into being a world economic powers, it was often explained as this would hurt America, but anyone looking back now at what actually happened realize that Germany and Japan's success did not hurt America, we all grew and improved together.

Arthur

 

[Pinwheel]

So Billy hates America?

 

[billvon]

several decades from now globalization could possibly achieve the age old dream of world peace, as everyone will be too reliant on everyone else to every use military action.

The day that most people believe that is the day the war will start. Nothing motivates military conquest like complacency in others.

After The Great War (World War 1 as we know it now) a lot of pundits wrote a lot of papers about how that was the last war the planet will ever have - that our destructive powers were too great to unleash again, that we have finally conquered our warlike tendencies, that all the major tensions in the world have been resolved.

Then came World War II; that ended with dropping atomic bombs on civilians. Once again the pundits wrote about how the nuclear threat changed everything; no one could go to war with the threat of complete annhililation hanging over their head.

Then came the Korean war, and the Vietnam war, and the first invasion of Afghanistan, and the Gulf War . . .

 

[ElectricFetus]

So Billy hates America?

No Billy is just obsesses, he obsesses with the "evil" Chinese and with Brazilian ethanol production, he sees what he wants to see and no one can make him believe otherwise.

 

[ElectricFetus]

The day that most people believe that is the day the war will start. Nothing motivates military conquest like complacency in others.

Nice logic but its not complacency I'm talking about. its integration. Linking every economy into one another, such that A) why attack them for resources your already getting from them through commerce and B) why attack when it will hurt your economy greatly as everyone cuts off supply too you.

Then came the Korean war, and the Vietnam war, and the first invasion of Afghanistan, and the Gulf War . . .

And the very nature of these wars are different from WWI and WWII, tell me how its possible for europe to have an internal war now with the EU and all? You think Germany is going to attack France or Britain today? The same thing as the EU has been slowly happening to the whole world.

Hey can some moderator split this off into a New thread called "Globalization will bring world peace?"

 

[F-X]

Who cares? Seriously.