Electric cars are a pipe dream
- Thread starter Syzygys
- Start date
Fraggle Rocker
Staff member
One-fourth of our total petroleum consumption is used directly by commuting. When will telecommuting finally catch on? Here in the Washington DC area, practically everybody spends their entire workday using a telephone and a computer, two devices which we all have at home.
The current war in the Middle East accounts for approximately one percent of the country's GDP. That's about $5,000 per second, a little less than half the cost of our imported petroleum.
The figure for the Vietnam War was ten percent, although the GDP was only about 7% of today's, adjusted for inflation.
Actually, 72% of our oil is used for transportation.
http://www.eia.doe.gov/aer/pecss_diagram.html
The problem is we are the world's largest MANUFACTURING economy.
Hard to make a Boeing 777 from home.
Arthur
As I started this "what cost..." detour, I feel compelled to help get thread back on the tracks:
" General Motors ... plans to double the 2012 production capacity for the Chevrolet Volt to 120,000 ... Volt output this year may increase to 25,000 from an original plan of 10,000, {CEO} Akerson said earlier this month. GM now is working with suppliers to raise 2012 capacity from an earlier target of 60,000. It may not build that many if parts aren’t available or demand isn’t strong enough, said the people, who didn’t want to be named ...
Akerson, who became CEO in September, wants to sell more of the $41,000 Volt and is pushing to use its Voltec gasoline- electric drive system for models sold by other GM brands. Akerson has said he wants GM to have more fuel-efficient models ready for a possible increase in oil prices to $120 a barrel.
“We want to stay sharply focused on technology,” Akerson told analysts at Deutsche Bank’s Auto Industry Conference in Detroit on Jan. 11. “We don’t want to be caught flat-footed as we were in 2008.” ..."
From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aH2dzyvuo8U4&pos=6
Billy T comment: They better be very trouble free as much to complex for guy at the gas station to fix. I bet more are stranded by mechanical problems and dead batteries and out of gas. Before I would believe that 2011 sales can be boosted 2.5 times earlier plans by end of 2011, I would believe that gas prices would be up 2.5 times by that date - but who knows if gasoline is up that much perhaps that will help sell all GM can produce?
" General Motors ... plans to double the 2012 production capacity for the Chevrolet Volt to 120,000 ... Volt output this year may increase to 25,000 from an original plan of 10,000, {CEO} Akerson said earlier this month. GM now is working with suppliers to raise 2012 capacity from an earlier target of 60,000. It may not build that many if parts aren’t available or demand isn’t strong enough, said the people, who didn’t want to be named ...
Akerson, who became CEO in September, wants to sell more of the $41,000 Volt and is pushing to use its Voltec gasoline- electric drive system for models sold by other GM brands. Akerson has said he wants GM to have more fuel-efficient models ready for a possible increase in oil prices to $120 a barrel.
“We want to stay sharply focused on technology,” Akerson told analysts at Deutsche Bank’s Auto Industry Conference in Detroit on Jan. 11. “We don’t want to be caught flat-footed as we were in 2008.” ..."
From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aH2dzyvuo8U4&pos=6
Billy T comment: They better be very trouble free as much to complex for guy at the gas station to fix. I bet more are stranded by mechanical problems and dead batteries and out of gas. Before I would believe that 2011 sales can be boosted 2.5 times earlier plans by end of 2011, I would believe that gas prices would be up 2.5 times by that date - but who knows if gasoline is up that much perhaps that will help sell all GM can produce?
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"...Hu visited a suburban {Chicago} warehouse where Chinese businesses were on hand, describing to Hu their U.S. expansion plans. Lu Guanqiu, chairman of Wanxiang Group, China’s biggest auto-parts maker, showed Hu the dashboards for the Chevy Volt and the solar panels his company’s more than 5,600 U.S. workers made. ..."
From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ6WZ_pb7n90&pos=8
Billy T comment: I think the batteries will be made in S. Korea. Will US's GM workers do anything more than assemble imported parts? At least Chinese companies are expanding in the US and creating jobs for Americans. - Sort of like the Japanese auto factories in the US.
Leaf / Volt = $33,630 / $41,000 = 82% lower cost for the leaf (Assuming GM hold the Volt's promised price).
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"... Nissan says many among the 20,000 who pre-ordered the Leaf all-electric car are going to have to wait months longer than they expected. Those who signed up to buy last summer, expecting delivery of the car this month or next, may have to wait as long as until May or June. General Motors says wait times at present probably average two to four months for those buying a Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in car — in line with expectations. ...
Nissian VP Brian Carolin says that his estimates of how long it would take for the Leafs, $33,630 to start, to arrive didn't end up meshing with the car's production schedule in Japan. ..."
From: http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2011-01-21-leafdelayed21_ST_N.htm
From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aZ6WZ_pb7n90&pos=8
Billy T comment: I think the batteries will be made in S. Korea. Will US's GM workers do anything more than assemble imported parts? At least Chinese companies are expanding in the US and creating jobs for Americans. - Sort of like the Japanese auto factories in the US.
Leaf / Volt = $33,630 / $41,000 = 82% lower cost for the leaf (Assuming GM hold the Volt's promised price).
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"... Nissan says many among the 20,000 who pre-ordered the Leaf all-electric car are going to have to wait months longer than they expected. Those who signed up to buy last summer, expecting delivery of the car this month or next, may have to wait as long as until May or June. General Motors says wait times at present probably average two to four months for those buying a Chevrolet Volt extended-range plug-in car — in line with expectations. ...
Nissian VP Brian Carolin says that his estimates of how long it would take for the Leafs, $33,630 to start, to arrive didn't end up meshing with the car's production schedule in Japan. ..."
From: http://www.usatoday.com/money/autos/2011-01-21-leafdelayed21_ST_N.htm
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Not likely.
The gas engine in the Volt is essentially identical to other GM small engines (GM originally was going to make a unique engine for the Volt but opted to use an existing engine)
What is unique is the gearing (much like the Prius) but that's as unlikely to cause problems as any car's transmission, which is rare, and what they don't have is the more complex front wheel drive that mechanics have been used to.
I also think the electrical system will probably offer easy test points for mechanics to deduce problems with that system.
Arthur
:bravo:
Now I think I know why you are such a pessimist. (hint, it's 18% lower cost)
Arthur
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Also unique is the way the gasoline motor is used, both for direct drive and for making electric power but not together always. It would seem that it needs to switch at different speeds and battery states. I.e. much more complex than a clutch and gears. I doubt if the mechanic who has never seen a car with this system can fix the control system or mechanical linkages etc. of this new flexible use of a gasoline motor.
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Again, not something that any mechanic is likely to have to fix.
Just like typical mechanics don't fix transmissions, they are fixed by swapping them out.
As far as it's complexity, not anymore complicated than a multi-speed manual transmission, except no clutch is required.
http://www.automobilemag.com/green/news/1010_chevy_volt_surprise/photo_04.html
Arthur
I think planatary gears are more complex, especially when which gear is the stator, i.e. fixed from rotation, is changed during normal operation; However, my concern is not just with the mechanic system, but with the system that controls. For example if the reason this mechanic system is swapped out (for new one from the factory as re-built units won't be available) is a two dollar battery state sensor is broke, I would not be happy to pay the $1,300 + ? for labor bill, would you?
PS that $1,300 could well be $2,600 or more - I was just guessing but the unit in your photo ain't cheap.
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And again you make up a hypothetical worst case to support your argument.
Why not wait till you see how reliable they actually are, and if repairs exceed normal amounts, Billy?
You do know they will come with a WARRANTY don't you?
The Prius is similarly complex, yet they have not had problems with reliability.
Arthur
Why not wait till you see how reliable they actually are, and if repairs exceed normal amounts, Billy?
You do know they will come with a WARRANTY don't you?
The Prius is similarly complex, yet they have not had problems with reliability.
Arthur
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It is my understanding that the Volt IC motor only charges the battery, it does not do direct drive. Thus the claim that the Volt is an electric vehicle rather than a hybrid, despite claims to the contrary.
The IC motor has been enabled to slow down and speed up in response to peddle input, this in order to reassure the driver.
(this from a Sciam article I just read today)
I assumed they did, but wonder if the battery warranty and rest of car have the same duration? Do you know?
The link given in post 554 states that when going over 70mph, the gasoline motor continues to drive the generator but ALSO clutches in to directly drives the wheels. That makes some sense as for the generator to be working well, it must be turning rapidly and can if car is going over 70mph. It is a very advanced, but complex power drive system.
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The Volt IC motor drives the wheels via a direct linkage; the drivetrain is very close to that of a Prius. People were pretty upset with GM when they revealed that; they had been suggesting that the IC engine only drives a generator, and had a lot of people fooled.
(This is actually a good thing - driving the wheels directly is a lot more efficient.)
Sorta true, except the Volt ICE only drives the wheels at speeds over 70 mph, so for all city/suburban driving it is an EV.
Why would people be UPSET with an engineering decision?
Volt's official MPG rates, starting with a full charge:
45 miles 168MPG (12.9 kWh consumed)
60 miles 89MPG (12.9 kWh consumed)
75 miles 69 MPG (12.9 kWh consumed)
Arthur
Why would people be UPSET with an engineering decision?
Volt's official MPG rates, starting with a full charge:
45 miles 168MPG (12.9 kWh consumed)
60 miles 89MPG (12.9 kWh consumed)
75 miles 69 MPG (12.9 kWh consumed)
Arthur
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