Electric cars are a pipe dream

[Billy T]

... Petrol stations could also be modified to supply the batteries so instead of charging them up you swap them (I know they are heavy but a robot fork lift could do it or you could use the power of the car - drive over a battery and it clicks round and swaps somehow not that tricky really) .

Welcome to Sciforums. The battery swap idea has been shown in old posts to be totally impractical due to cost. (Swap stations and batteries at them cost more than the cars.)
Read: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2729028&postcount=47

Then also this:

post 1536, in part:...Here is the tradeoff the battery swap station owner faces:
Bear the capital cost for all the slowly recharged batteries he may need to swap the next day vs. be less efficient with rapid recharge so that the first he swaps out in the AM can be given to a driver arriving at noon time for a battery swap. To tell that late in the day driver with a nearly discharged battery: “Sorry we don’t have any fully charged batteries that will fit in your car, but I can let you have one with 35% charge which probably will get you to another swap station.” will not be very attractive as user pays twice for the swap (in both time and money).

This also makes clear that there must be several different capacity batteries, all standardized in design. I.e. the capacity needed in a small light weight car is not same as in the bigger EV station wagon. Thus there would need to be at least three different standardized battery sizes.

To compute how many of each size the recharge station, which make only 50 swaps per day on average, is a complex statistical problem. One needs to know the dispersion of demand –for example what is the probably that station will have a 100 swap demand day? Even if rapid recharge is used, to lower the capital cost, I would guess that station doing an average of 50 swaps/ day needs about 60 batteries of each of the three standard sizes to only very rarely tell the late arriving driver: "Sorry…”

Also note a 50 swap average station is an extremely small one. {Only provides the same driving range as 16 tanks of gasoline} The typical gasoline station must fill at least 2000 tanks a day. ... Thus the typical size swap station will make about 6000 swaps per day, but be prepared for the occasional 10,000 swap day. That is a hell of a lot of battery capital the EV drivers will pay for in some way.

To make this same point quickly in a different way: The capital cost of a gallon of gasoline at the gas station, including the cost of fuel pump and a 20 year large in ground tank, is less than $5. That gallon will provide about the same driving range as $5,000 worth of batteries will. Thus, if there is no reduction in the number of miles driven, the battery swap system requires about 1000 times more capital investment. Even if different analysis reduces that factor to 500 times more – it clearly show the battery swap system is not feasible economically. Basically it is the high capital cost per mile driven, compared to gasoline that kills the battery swap system. Not even the US can afford battery swap EVs to be more than a few percent of the car on the road.

This fact makes a “catch 22” – If there are only a few battery swap cars, then there will be very few battery swap stations – very high probably that none is nearby when you need it. Where battery swap is economically feasible is in private fleet cars, taxis, and delivery trucks that operate from a home base. They can all have identical size batteries and the statistical variations in recharge demand at their base is very small – I.e. the ratio of batteries at the base to batteries in cars can be less than 1 to 1, not more than 3 to 1. ...

this from: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2722369&postcount=1536

Finally a few words, from post 1558 as to why perhaps battery swap cars are not even attractive to a fleet owners like a Taxi Cab company):

... The interiors {of taxicabs} do get wear, cokes spilled in them so a taxi cap company might sell you a four year old cab, especially if your don't paint over their telephone number and let you continue to use their base to swap for a fee. (Perhaps part fix Dollar amount and part based on time lapsed and miles driven since last swap was made.) But if you came in one day with a battery that they had not put in, possibly one with high self discharge rate, they would no longer swap for you. {They don’t want to give good battery for a lemon}

There would be relatively few who would like this being a "captive customer" and they need to drive by the swap station without that be too much of a detour nearly every day. I doubt if the cab company would abuse the "captive customer" as he is one of the few who will take old cabs off the cab company's hands - they might only charge for the energy and $10 for the swap. A fleet battery swap car has essentially zero resale value to the general public - A new owner would need to cease making battery swaps and have home recharge (battery in the car) facilities. This fact makes battery swap cars less attractive to even the fleet owner, unless he plans to run them until he turns them over to junk yard. ...

 

[adoucette]

Billy,
Old cabs aren't worth much, so that last argument falls flat.
Clearly in countries with very high gas prices compared to electricity prices and vehicles which rack up 50,000+ miles per year the economy of a battery swap model for fleet cars operating in an urban environment can make sense.

At the end of its service life, only the frame is retired, and if it's a fleet owner, with its own repair faciliities, it would be stripped of important parts before going to the junkyard.

Arthur

 

[Billy T]

Billy,
Old cabs aren't worth much, so that last argument falls flat.

That depends on what is "old" - a two year old gasoline cab with a cigarette hole in back seat, etc. still has a resale value to someone who drives less than 5000 miles /year, but perhaps little value to a traveling sales man expecting to drive 35,000 miles each year.

I no longer own a car and need to use taxi less than once per week, but if I could buy a three year old or less gasoline or natural gas* cab at deep discount I might consider it as have space in our apartment garage for it to sit un-used for 10 or more days at a time. I.e. a non-battery swap 3 year of cab does have at least 30% of its new value still to many low mileage / year drivers.

But anyway, my argument does not "fall flat" as the point I was making is that the battery swap cab, even only 2 years old has little (5% of new?) resale value as buyer must also buy home recharge set up. (And can certainly expect it to come with the worst batteries the fleet owner has.) - Thus your comment "Old cabs aren't worth much" only strengthens my argument.

Clearly in countries with very high gas prices compared to electricity prices and vehicles which rack up 50,000+ miles per year the economy of a battery swap model for fleet cars operating in an urban environment can make sense.

Yes, I agree. We have both in prior posts agreed that the ONLY place a battery swap can make any economic sense is for the fleet owner, with all his cars using the same design battery and operating from few bases, preferably only one. {To avoid having some of base "a" batteries end the day at base "b" leaving base "a" with too few to recharge for the next day.}

At the end of its service life, only the frame is retired, and if it's a fleet owner, with its own repair faciliities, it would be stripped of important parts before going to the junkyard. Arthur

"important parts" such as still good tires, the radio and ? but the replacement he is buying will come with every thing else, including new tires. (I assume you can still buy a car slightly cheaper without any radio, but would not be the least surprised if now you would need to pay extra to have routinely installed at factory radio removed.)

* Almost all the cabs in Sao Paulo use natural gas. I need car so little as in city public transport is faster and free to the over 60 year olds

 

[adoucette]

Average Number of Annual Miles for a New York City Taxi

According to the PBS program "Taxi Dreams," the average number of miles driven by a taxi driver in New York City in a 12-hour shift is 180. If you do the simple math, a cab running five days a week would rack up 46,800 miles in 52 weeks. Because some cabs are used for double shifts, meaning that two drivers share the same vehicle in two 12-hour shifts, an average cab being used to pull double shifts could rack up 93,600 miles in a year or more.

http://www.ehow.com/info_8446407_many-cab-driver-drive-yearly.html#ixzz1OPolwfp9

 

[Billy T]

... average number of miles driven by a taxi driver in New York City in a 12-hour shift is 180. .[/url]

If they are in motion most of the time, NYC traffic must be as bad as that in Sao Paulo as that is average speed of 15mph or less.

I have learned that the Checker company no longer exists to sell cabs, so perhaps can not expect a cab to go 300,000 miles anymore. Even so, a cab, well maintained, with 100,000 on it should serve the 5000m/year or less driver at least 5 years - be a fairly good deal if it cost less than 1/3 of new car.

 

[adoucette]

If they are in motion most of the time, NYC traffic must be as bad as that in Sao Paulo as that is average speed of 15mph or less.

I have learned that the Checker company no longer exists to sell cabs, so perhaps can not expect a cab to go 300,000 miles anymore. Even so, a cab, well maintained, with 100,000 on it should serve the 5000m/year or less driver at least 5 years - be a fairly good deal if it cost less than 1/3 of new car.

Well from the same link, Denver's largest taxicab company has 492 cabs on the road, and the company's cabs average 70,000 miles per year

http://www.ehow.com/info_8446407_many-cab-driver-drive-yearly.html#ixzz1OQ9xPK9Q

Having ridden in a fair number of NYC taxis I can't imagine anyone wanting to buy a used one, except maybe for use as target practice.

 

[Billy T]

... Having ridden in a fair number of NYC taxis I can't imagine anyone wanting to buy a used one, except maybe for use as target practice.

Perhaps they would look better, if competition was not so limited by need of a taxi license? I seem to recall, from years ago that a license costs (when sold by one cab owner to another) about $60,000. If true perhaps more than 100K now? Do you know?

 

[adoucette]

Perhaps they would look better, if competition was not so limited by need of a taxi license? I seem to recall, from years ago that a license costs (when sold by one cab owner to another) about $60,000. If true perhaps more than 100K now? Do you know?

A NYC Medallion costs over TEN times that amount.

http://www.content4reprint.com/business/entrepreneurship/nyc-taxi-medallions-should-you-buy-one.htm

Arthur

 

[Billy T]

A NYC Medallion costs over TEN times that amount. http://www.content4reprint.com/business/entrepreneurship/nyc-taxi-medallions-should-you-buy-one.htm Arthur

Thanks. If my memory was correct I missed one hell of a good investment about 30 or 40 years ago.

 

[Fraggle Rocker]

I have learned that the Checker company no longer exists to sell cabs, so perhaps can not expect a cab to go 300,000 miles anymore.

Checker bought their engines from General Motors so their cabs were just funny-looking Oldsmobiles.

In much of the world diesel-engine Mercedes are used as taxis. Over here they trick them out with automatic transmissions, power windows and all the gingerbread and regard them as luxury cars with high fuel economy, but the rest of the world considers them workhorses. It's easy to get 300,000 miles or more from a diesel engine before it needs an overhaul. We have a 1978 Mercedes 240D with 200,000 miles and it still runs like new. (Stick shift and crank windows. )

 

[Billy T]

Checker bought their engines from General Motors so their cabs were just funny-looking Oldsmobiles. ...

I did not know that. The little I knew about checker came from my thesis advisor. He said "fact" it would last 300,000 was the main reasons he was buying one.

If he was not misinformed (I.e. a Checker with GM supplied motor could be expected to go that far) then it just proves that GM knew many years ago how to make a 300,000 mile lasting motor (for sale only to Checker) but wanted the average 10,000 / year driver to buy a new car after 10, not 30 years.

It could be that GM also knew the rest of the car would be "shot" after ~100,000 miles and operated on the same principle Henry Ford did. I think it is true that Henry hired a mechanic to travel all over the US for one year, visiting junk yards, looking for Fords in them which were not there because of a wreck. He took them apart to find out why they were there and after the year send in his tabulated results. Things like 14 with broken drive shaft, 136 with worn out rings, 28 with gear box gear broken etc.

Henry noted that not one in the report had a broken king pin, so he called in his engineers and said: "Make the king pins cheaper / lighter etc."

{GM's Alfred P} "Sloan is credited with establishing annual styling changes, from which came the concept of planned obsolescence." - quote from Wiki.

 

[adoucette]

Checker bought their engines from General Motors so their cabs were just funny-looking Oldsmobiles.

After 64.

Prior to that (and where they earned their long life reputation) was with the 226 CID inline 6 Continental Engine.

Of course Chevy also made a great inline 6 at the time as well.
My Grandfather gave his used 1954 Belair to my mom and it was the car I learned to drive on (3 on the column) and it had well over 200k miles on it (the speedometer stopped working so not real sure) when it met an unfortunate demise due to another careless driver.

Arthur

 

[X-Man2]

May 26,2011

150,000 Electric Leafs Annually & 200,000 Batteries Annually.

"Nissan today broke ground on the manufacturing facility in Smyrna Tennessee, that will produce the lithium-ion batteries that power the Nissan Leaf zero-emissions vehicle.

The all-electric Leaf will be produced at Nissan's vehicle assembly facility in Smyrna Tennessee beginning in 2012. Leafs sold in the U.S. before then will be made in Japan.

Nissan said in a statement today that Leaf and battery production will create up to 1,300 jobs when the plants are operating at full capacity.

The battery plant, one of the largest vehicle battery manufacturing plants in North America at 1.3 million square feet at full capacity, will be capable of producing 200,000 advanced-technology batteries annually.

It will be located adjacent to the vehicle assembly plant, which will be retooled to accommodate production of Nissan Leaf and will be capable of producing 150,000 electric cars annually.

"What we're doing here will radically transform the automotive experience for consumers. Today is a major step in helping create a green economy in the United States," said Nissan CEO Carlos Ghosn. "Production of Nissan Leaf and lithium-ion batteries in Smyrna brings the United States closer to its goal of energy independence, creates green jobs and helps sustain American manufacturing."

 

[Billy T]

... 150,000 Electric Leafs Annually & 200,000 Batteries Annually. ...

At first glance, that seems to imply they expect the battery to last only three years. I.e. after three years of production they will have 3x50,000 replacement batteries to put in the first years 150,000 cars they made, but only 50,000 replacement batteries at end year 4 left for the second year's 150,000 cars, which are then three years old.

Lets try again: If batteries last 10 years, they will have made 1.5 million cars and have half a million batteries not yet installed in cars. Thus they are assuming 2/3 of cars will not yet need replacement battery even after 10 years?

If these 500,000 replacement batteries go only in the oldest cars, then there are replacement batteries for the first 3 & 1/3 years of cars produced but none left for the last 2/3 of year four's production (which are more than 6 years old at year 10.)

I think this data mainly implies they will need to expand battery production before car production is expanded. Anyone want to try better as to what this data implies about expected battery life if 4 batteries are always produced for every 3 cars? (even assuming no car every gets it third battery = replacement # 2)

 

[adoucette]

The key word in the article is CAPABLE of.

 

[Billy T]

The key word in the article is CAPABLE of.

If both battery and car factories only run at X% of capacity that does not change the battery life implications of producing 4 batteries for every 3 cars

That is the question, not what X is, as answer does not depend upon X.

 

[adoucette]

Not really.
Most car factories can make several model cars.
In the current factory only a small percent of the cars produced are Leafs and the capacity for cars thus 100,000 if they only make Leafs.
But I doubt there is that much demand.
While the battery plant is just going to produce Leaf Batteries.
And of course, the cost of shipping batteries isn't nearly as much as cars, so they could also come from other existing factories.

Arthur

 

[X-Man2]

A couple of articles on the Nissan 150k/200k Leaf/Battery build number difference hints at using the extra batteries on other future Nissan hybrids or EV models.I assume there also must be extra batteries built for things like Leaf accidents and a few duds or lemons.

I'm looking for the article I lost but it said Nissan expects the 1st generation Leaf batteries to have a fairly short production life as the 2nd generation batteries with longer range and shorter charge times become available.I'll keep looking.

 

[adoucette]

I'm looking for the article I lost but it said Nissan expects the 1st generation Leaf batteries to have a fairly short production life as the 2nd generation batteries with longer range and shorter charge times become available.I'll keep looking.

Reminds me of the Compaq salesman who told his customers, if you think this model is small, wait till you see the one we are working on, it's smaller and faster.

Unfortunately his customers did wait.

Arthur

 

[billvon]

Reminds me of the Compaq salesman who told his customers, if you think this model is small, wait till you see the one we are working on, it's smaller and faster.

When I first started working with commercial lithium ion batteries in 1998 or so, standard 18650's were 1300mah. We used a bunch of them in the early Globalstar phones. When I left they were up to 1600mah.

Nowadays they are 2800mah. A factor of 215% increase in 13 years. Good things come to those who wait.