Sorry Baldeee. I didn't mean to put words into your mouth. (I'll let you exercise your free will in deciding what you want to say.)
No worries, even if I ultimately have no option but to accept.
I didn't mean practical predictability so much as predictability in principle. If somebody could know the state of the universe at time A with absolute completeness and precision (obviously an impossibility in practical terms), then we could know the state of the universe at succeeding time B.
Sure, predictability in principle is implied by strict determinism.
I'm not exactly sure what the 'if-then' is doing in 'if A then B'. Logical implication? Causal connection (whatever causality is)?
The "if-then" is stating exactly that if the inputs are A then the output must be B.
Causal connection, yes, but more than that it states that each time you have A you then get B.
Nor am I sure how 'if A then B' is different from 'predictability in principle'. If A and B are linked in this way (whatever it is) then knowing A would seem to enable us to know B too.
I'm not saying it doesn't imply predictability in principle, and to be clear, strict determinism does imply that.
My point is that predictability is a by-product only of strict determinism, whereas the argument presented works for the probabilistic variety as well, which is inherently unpredictable other than probabilistically.
Thus to focus on the predictability element is to actually limit the argument to just strict determinism.
Wouldn't chaos and inherent randomness contradict determinism?
Inherent randomness yes, but chaos no.
Chaos is simply the sensitivity of a system to starting conditions.
But this can be strictly deterministic and still be chaotic.
Inherent randomness, however, is indeterministic.
But the argument from determinism still holds for this probabilistic determinism, in as much as a random outcome in accordance with a probability function is still not considered a "free" choice.
If the nonlinearity of chaos means that even infinitesimal differences in initial conditions can lead to systems evolving in dramatically different ways, and if reality is inherently fuzzy at its smallest scale (uncertainty principle and all that), then determinism would seem to me to face a serious challenge. It might render determinism more of a metaphysical idealization than a plausible description of how reality behaves.
Strict determinism has more or less been debunked at that level.
I have no issue with that, but it is still a convenient argument to make: if one accepts the argument for the case of strict determinism at least as valid, then the next issue is whether one considers the probabilistic variety to offer any grounds for the will being free.
OK. I wasn't thinking of the practical notion of it anyway.
Ok.
I consider free-will to lie in our choices being the result of our own beliefs, desires and intentions applied to the circumstances we are in. Free will depends on there being some deterministic relation between our psychological states such as motivations, and our actions.
Probabilistic, sure.
But if the precise connection between A and B weakens and grows less precise as the temporal interval between them grows, the argument that long-ago states of the universe determine the smallest details of what happens today weakens as well.
In a strictly deterministic universe this connection never weakens, no matter how much chaos there is.
In a probabilistic universe then it weakens over time as you suggest, but the argument from determinism remains, in that the probabilistic nature is still random, and a random output still does not seem to offer any room for a free choice.
Hence looking at predictability as a proxy for the argument only applies to the strict determinism case, hence why I advise against that focus.
If temporally far distant A no longer precisely determines B, then any deterministic relationship between the two breaks down. So B's behavior isn't already laid out for it by A, by fate, or by God's will.
Agreed.
But in the probabilistic case, the route from A to B still does not seem to allow any freedom due to the route taken being randomly selected (in line with the probability function).
So unless one sees a random selection as a free choice then predictability has no real bearing on the issue.
If B is an organism like ourselves, B needs to apply its own cognitive resources to understanding the situation it is in and to behaving as best it can in the circumstances in which it finds itself.
Sure, but the question then is whether the application is free or again just a matter of randomness within the probability functions.
We might agree that those cognitive resources are the result of brain functioning and are themselves deterministic. But as I've argued, the free-willist needn't deny that. Free will depends on actions being determined by the actor's intentions, desires and will.
Caused, not necessarily determined (in the sense of strict determinism).
Further, this is where there is a change in notion of free will from the determinist sense to the compatabilist sense.
Neither view is incorrect, because they both use different notions of the terms and apply it accordingly.
And using their own terms, they are each correct in the applicable domain.
I have no issue with that either.
But I presented an argument from determinism, and per that domain I see no freedom (other than in the sense that an object in space has "freedom" to be wherever its inputs dictate).
Now you are putting words into my mouth. My view is basically that nobody knows at this point. What everyone seems to be doing is applying their own spins both to the raw material of experience and to the details of current scientific theorizing.
Apologies, it did seem as though you were dismissing the argument based on its conclusion.
If that was not the intention then okay, and the clarification is appreciated.
What I am arguing is that
1. Modern science doesn't make free-will untenable. I'm arguing for, if not the truth (which is something that probably nobody knows at this point), at least the plausibility of compatibilism.
And I would argue that it depends upon your notion of free will, and "free" within that context.
2. That in our situation of metaphysical ignorance about what's really going on, I choose to continue thinking in terms of free-will because doing so seems to do less violence to ethics and personal responsibility, and it is closer to my own (and most people's) intuitions of how people behave. It also seems less dependent on speculative metaphysical theory.
I understand completely, and in casual conversation this is exactly how I would use the term.
But I disagree that the alternative view is any more or less dependent on speculative metaphysical theory.
If one can provide arguments that covers all understood notions from physics about the nature of interactions, and starts with those as premises, then valid logic takes you to whatever conclusion it does.
It would thus be not dependent on metaphysical theory but from empirical evidence.
Alternatively one can choose to ignore those arguments and that starting point, and simply begin from the empirical evidence of how it appears and feels to us, which is what the compatabilist view is.
But some here take umbrage with the notion that this is what they are doing.
I do not see one view as right, the other wrong, though.
They are both describing exactly the same thing, but with different notions of the terms used.