Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

[Xelasnave.1947]

Gosh... at a time like this and you are worried about an election 8 months of COVID away...

Thank you. Your reply tells me I have got thru to you. But no less than I expected for you are not a fool ...now let's stop this side chat and get back to what is happening now.
I look forward to checking in here and reading your updates just keep it real and try not to stir me up...it's no good for me and I refuse to go down without taking all those nearby.
Do what you started the thread for, stop the blame game and forget emotions, we need someone rational like you to monitor the situation and keep the mob calm.
Alex

 

[Quantum Quack]

Milestone 2million

15/04/2020
2,014,006 CC
127,914 CFR

Notes:
Significant under reporting most likely:
India
Indonesia
Turkey
Russia
China

The actual situation is almost unable to be speculated on. The data is so confused and skewed.
Which is why I haven't bothered too much..
But a milestone has been officially reached and the next million will be reached very quickly ( most likely)

 

[Capracus]

The virus was already here.

True, but limiting incoming travel from affected regions allows for more effective screening and tracing of those travelers, and it does reduce the existing contagion load. If Trump had applied the same restrictions to European travel, New York would not have experienced the same rate of increase of cases, the curve would have been flatter.

 

[Xelasnave.1947]

Which is why I haven't bothered too much..

Now you can understand why Trump is having problems...you have experienced how the noise in the background diverts your attention.
I follow the stock market these days and I find it reflects something...well the extreme swings have settled dramatically indicating that the herd fear thing is not as predominant as only a week ago...clearly Mr Trump is to thank if you vote for him but we seem to be becoming more rational.
You asked why I think things will get back to somewhat normal and I think what follows indicates the mentality we work with.
Westpac announced a three billion dollar write off..now you would think the share price would drop ..but no...it went up..so what does that tell us...investors have put the problem behind them and it's back to business as before..you wait and see..virus gone..it's all over and will never happen again...of course it will and teeth will gnash and there will be a great wringing of hands.. but no lessons will be learned..in years to come the young folk yet to be born will say why worry that only happened in the olden days.
But we will know all we can hope for is that presidents as transparent as Trump will be on hand so the youngsters can realise even a great office does not make you infallible.
For you I really would like to see you less stressed in fact to remain unconcerned and resigned to the fact it is a crazy world.
You take care. I enjoy your posts and your ethics.
Alex

 

[wegs]

I doubt anyone will go back to “normal,” because “normal” landed us here. The pandemic simply revealed how broken the system has been and unbridled capitalism only works for a few. I don’t think it caused it and if we miss that “lesson,” we will be doomed to end up here again.

 

[billvon]

I doubt anyone will go back to “normal,” because “normal” landed us here. The pandemic simply revealed how broken the system has been and unbridled capitalism only works for a few. I don’t think it caused it and if we miss that “lesson,” we will be doomed to end up here again.

It will be interesting to see what, exactly, changes. My suspicions include:

-More telecommuting
-More awareness of pandemics and precautions (wouldn't surprise me to see lots of Americans continuing to wear masks)
-More caution in investing as a result of this recession

However I don't see much about capitalism changing. Once the country opens back up, everyone is going to go back to trying to make as much money as possible.

 

[wegs]

It will be interesting to see what, exactly, changes. My suspicions include:

-More telecommuting
-More awareness of pandemics and precautions (wouldn't surprise me to see lots of Americans continuing to wear masks)
-More caution in investing as a result of this recession

However I don't see much about capitalism changing. Once the country opens back up, everyone is going to go back to trying to make as much money as possible.

Hmm, I predict that after something like this, the average person will take a pause and reflect on if working all that overtime was really worth it, and will prioritize differently, moving forward. When you see so many companies laying off their staff, those loyal employees will not be eager to be so loyal the second go 'round.

My firm having many of us on unpaid leave, but expecting us to work, is seeing that this isn't going over so well, now. I've been very vocal about the legalities of it all, and their emails are changing in tone. ''Please come to our social meeting, where we can check in on each other.'' lol Right...and then when they have you on the call, they'll grill you about work. I'm done. I'm not showing up to meetings, it's pretty liberating.

Doubtful I'm alone in this sentiment. I think the shift will be an existential one for many people - especially after enduring a life/death situation like a pandemic. The things that everyone thought were sooo important, aren't anymore. Family, love, staying connected, faith, friendships, etc. will trump jumping back on the hamster wheel, serving employers that you realize aren't really there for you, in the end.

 

[billvon]

Hmm, I predict that after something like this, the average person will take a pause and reflect on if working all that overtime was really worth it, and will prioritize differently, moving forward. When you see so many companies laying off their staff, those loyal employees will not be eager to be so loyal the second go 'round.

Billvon thinks that most of the people who worked lots of overtime because they wanted to will still work a lot of overtime. But he also thinks that people who were working due to threat of firing, poor reviews etc will not be as eager.

My firm having many of us on unpaid leave, but expecting us to work, is seeing that this isn't going over so well, now. I've been very vocal about the legalities of it all, and their emails are changing in tone. ''Please come to our social meeting, where we can check in on each other.'' lol Right...and then when they have you on the call, they'll grill you about work. I'm done. I'm not showing up to meetings, it's pretty liberating.

Yeah, what Wegs' company did wasn't right. Billvon has _mostly_ worked for companies that were better than that (with one exception.)

 

[wegs]

Billvon thinks that most of the people who worked lots of overtime because they wanted to will still work a lot of overtime. But he also thinks that people who were working due to threat of firing, poor reviews etc will not be as eager.

It will be interesting to see if billvon's theory proves true. Wegs doesn't entirely doubt it, but I don't see people putting their careers above all else, like many did pre-CV19.

Yeah, what Wegs' company did wasn't right. Billvon has _mostly_ worked for companies that were better than that (with one exception.)

Wegs has worked for two amazing firms before this one, so this is rather surprising to her.

I like this third person thing.

 

[Sarkus]

I doubt anyone will go back to “normal,” because “normal” landed us here. The pandemic simply revealed how broken the system has been and unbridled capitalism only works for a few. I don’t think it caused it and if we miss that “lesson,” we will be doomed to end up here again.

I actually think that things will pretty much go back to normal. The one thing I see that might change, though, is that governments invest (possibly quite heavily) in temporary but high-capacity emergency healthcare provision. Had the virus been such that the demand on hospitals was tolerable, there would have been no real need to go into lockdown, as I understand the main reason for the lockdown was to delay and spread out the case-load, so that there's no massive spike in cases that the health system can't cope with.
E.g. if the system can cope with 3,000 cases on an on-going basis, then lock everything down so that there are only 3,000 at any one time. But if you have a system that can, at short notice, cope with, say, 24,000 cases - then far less (or no) need to lock things down. So all that needs to happen is the system is made "antifragile" [1]. Capitalism can do this, I think, without too much issue: just generate high-volume of emergency capacity in the health-care system - e.g. buildings that are empty and only maintained to the basic level for the vast majority of time, but with a ring-fenced fund built up from years of no emergency that can be used when the emergency hits, thus not significantly impacting the underlying economy.
I also see video-conferencing becoming far more acceptable, if not the norm, rather than long car journeys or flights just for that face-to-face aspect - also happily synergising with the green agenda. And working from home might become more acceptable for many businesses that feared it previously. But those are just technicalities.
Whether good or bad, I think capitalism will survive just as it is.

And in that vein, I hear Jeff Bezos is USD 24 billion richer as a result of the global pandemic, as more use Amazon for their shopping: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52289657

[1] see work by Prof. Nassim Taleb

 

[wegs]

When so many people are laid off, how will capitalism thrive?

 

[Seattle]

When so many people are laid off, how will capitalism thrive?

What is the rational alternative? Seattle thinks that people are too eager to identify capitalism as the problem with many things whereas they are usually correct, there is a problem, but it's not capitalism.

Seattle thinks that you can have many ways of doing things within the capitalism framework. Its just a distraction to blame everything on capitalism.

You want to work at home. You can do that within capitalism. You want a "kinder and gentler" company work environment? Capitalism doesn't prevent that.

Much like Sarkus and Billvon, Seattle thinks that people will be back at work and if they were career oriented before, they'll still be that way. Companies haven't been loyal to employees since the 50's so nothing new there.

Seattle thinks that many people will change jobs as the opportunities present themselves. It's only rational that if you work at a bar or restaurant you might focus a little harder in the coming days to find more stable employment.

Wegs will reflect on life and may make some changes that are more in line with Wegs wants and needs but I'm sure Wegs has always done this.

There will be less work air travel for little good reason and more people working from home and the pandemic response system should be better next time.

Seattle thinks the two biggest changes in the way people think will be to have better personal hygiene including being around less crowded places and working to find more stable jobs and maybe more personal savings.

 

[wegs]

Is it weird that Wegs isn’t offended when reading comments in the third person?

Wegs feels we should keep this line of communication going. (Props given to billvon for the idea)

 

[billvon]

When so many people are laid off, how will capitalism thrive?

Capitalism does just fine when a lot of people are out of work. The velocity of money declines, which has negative effects on the economy, of course. But capitalism works during times of high employment and low employment.

 

[Seattle]

Is it weird that Wegs isn’t offended when reading comments in the third person?

Wegs feels we should keep this line of communication going. (Props given to billvon for the idea)

It's funny...the idea was actually yours. You asked once if I was speaking in the first person when I posted something about Seattle.

 

[wegs]

It's funny...the idea was actually yours. You asked once if I was speaking in the first person when I posted something about Seattle.

Lol I remember. In this thread, I think QQ started it related to billvon.

 

[wegs]

Oh, btw - I don’t take issue with capitalism. Personal responsibility has to come into play and I’ve developed a good career. It’s unbridled capitalism - ie: government loans going to corporations so the C suite can buy back stocks whilst laying their staff off.

Capitalism is essential for an economy to thrive but I’ve been reading about “late stage capitalism,” which is largely about greed.

 

[iceaura]

However I don't see much about capitalism changing. Once the country opens back up, everyone is going to go back to trying to make as much money as possible.

That's not what most people were doing before.

Capitalism does just fine when a lot of people are out of work.

If regulated well enough and taxed rigorously enough to maintain basic social infrastructures.

If not, both theory and history predict that the successful capitalists of the moment will leverage their control over resources and political power to lock in an aristocracy and impoverish the bulk of the society. Many instances of the Tragedy Of The Commons will play out, and aside from the personal holdings of the aristocrats the surrounding landscape of natural resources degraded to the point of subsistence exploitation. A suboptimal equilibrium will be established, that can be dismantled and left for more prosperous setups only by violence of some kind (natural or human destruction).

Interestingly enough, one of the common forms of equilibrium destroying violence has been epidemic disease and plague - human and/or plant pathogens collapsing an oppressive social order, opening up opportunities for the survivors. That's often part of the explanation for the rise of European prosperity in the aftermath of the Dark Ages.

 

[Seattle]

Oh, btw - I don’t take issue with capitalism. Personal responsibility has to come into play and I’ve developed a good career. It’s unbridled capitalism - ie: government loans going to corporations so the C suite can buy back stocks whilst laying their staff off.

Capitalism is essential for an economy to thrive but I’ve been reading about “late stage capitalism,” which is largely about greed.

I know what you mean. I just look at it as an issue but it's just incorrect IMO to label the problem as capitalism. It's politics or how the government is handling things but it's not inherent in capitalism and greed is present in most human endeavors.

The top party officials in socialist/communist systems are greedy as well. That's not inherent to socialism/communism either. Those systems have plenty of inherent problems but greed isn't specific to those systems either.

It's a human trait that needs to be dealt with. You could reform a political system and say no corporate money can flow to political campaigns. That would probably be a good thing but either way it's not "capitalism".

Even "stock buybacks" has been overblown as a scape goat for other issues. If a company has funds and they don't have growth opportunities to invest them in, a stock buyback is a rational decision.

That money is shareholder money after all. If it is invested in the company, their shares go up, if you buy back stock, their shares go up.

It's not going to go to hire more people if more people aren't needed and it's not going to raise everyone's wages just because they have profits from the business. So this is a false issue in most cases.

 

[wegs]

Oh snap, this might indeed be end times. I’m agreeing with iceaura’s post - about 75%.