divide 300,000,000 by cases 1,430,000 and get a factor or 209.7.
that is 209.7*1,430,000=300,000,000 ( rounding included)
ok..?
Corona Virus 2019-nCoV
- Thread starter Quantum Quack
- Start date
that is 209.7*1,430,000=300,000,000 ( rounding included)
ok..?
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
I know what the population is. I'm not pouring over the numbers like you are. I'm looking at the logic of your math. I'm also looking at what comes out of an equation.
If it's garbage, the assumptions need to be gone over.
Even the health officials that are trying to convince people to stay inside or it could be bad aren't using numbers like you are.
If we are at 3148 now and we are staying inside and the peak will come by April 14th, how do we get to 600,000 deaths?
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
First of all you would divide 1,430,000 by 300,000,000 and you would get 4.7% but who cares what percent the infected are all the total population? You are assuming that those numbers are right and you are then assuming that everyone will be infected and die at the same rate.
There is no basis for any of this.
We don't. How do you know the peak will come by April 14th?
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
I'm just going by the most commonly quoted predictions.
This is interesting and shows estimates for CA’s “peak.”
https://ktla.com/news/california/ca...d-deaths-in-less-than-4-weeks-forecast-finds/
https://ktla.com/news/california/ca...d-deaths-in-less-than-4-weeks-forecast-finds/
Which is exactly what the data scientist is attempting to say. Ball park guesses are all we have...even the death figures are not able to be qualified properly..
As a nation the peek wont even start to form until you have at least 90% compliance to the social /physical distancing requirement.
The chances of 90% simultaneous compliance nation wide are pretty slim, don't you think especially during a partial lock down and not a full one. You have millions of workers that can spread this infection at any time..some are asymptomatic and some are already symptomatic but are still working..
The amount of incubators is yet to be revealed as symptomatic ... the estimate was for 1.43 million less confirmed = incubators/symptomatic but not tested etc...but all contagious and infecting people if not in isolation.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
If everything points to maybe 100,000 after all is said and done, why argue that it could be terrible and could be 600,000 or more.
Everything "could" go wrong and it could be 2 million but that's not likely. The sky "could" fall but it's not going to now is it? If one is looking for drama and gloom, sure you can suggest that it "could" happen.
Everything "could" go wrong and it could be 2 million but that's not likely. The sky "could" fall but it's not going to now is it? If one is looking for drama and gloom, sure you can suggest that it "could" happen.
Are people still going to work?
Are any non-essential businesses still open?
Even here in Australia where the outlook is positive the government fails to include infections caused by half hearted approaches to lockdown..
Example:
Social distancing is in force including fines and jail if needed.
the main essential service that most people will congregate is the local supermarket.
All supermarket workers are not allowed to wear protective gear. They are exposed. Yet the customers can wear protective gear if they choose to.
If a supermarket experiences an outbreak, panic buying at all other supermarkets will no doubt occur due to the fear that they will also be shut down.
We have already had one local major chain super market shut down. No media , no published data, only word of mouth internally to the chain. ( my daughter works for them)
Apparently according to my local manager they were shut down for 4 hours and all staff were replaced with fresh staff.
Still no protective gear allowed for staff.
This whole 14 day isolation period goes out the window so easily and we will have to start again..
We are currently on day 8 of 14 and expect some sort of peek in 6 days. This is an illusion, because incubators are still active and not necessarily isolated ( workers including supermarket staff)
so yet again the problem is being terribly underestimated and being stuck in a half hearted lock down isolation is most likely going to be a waste of time and suffering..
It is worth noting that in 4 months not one single nation, or even city has been able to successfully contain this bug... Not a single one. This is why I suggested maximum quarantine safe zones may need to be established. Once established and containment is proved then slowly expand the safe zones...and so on..but even that is incredibly fraught with risks..
Last edited:
Yep. That's an assumption. If they are garbage, the assumptions need to be gone over.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
It depends on what you mean by contain. There isn't a vaccine yet. China could be said to be back to the "new normal". The U.S. will follow by early to mid-summer. People will still have to be careful but with more testing and less people to infect the infection rate will decline.
At some point there will hopefully be a vaccine and other more effect treatment and better research so that we know how this virus works as we do with regular flu.
Shutting down is effective for a while but it's not the permanent solution.
Seattle
Valued Senior Member
Of course. It shouldn't be ignored until they are shown to be garbage. It's an evolving situation obviously.
Ideally you could establish an island state like Hawaii as a safe zone, purge all infection and prove it sustainable... then move on to another...
CC = 204 ( new =0)
deaths = 0
CC = 204 ( new =0)
deaths = 0
It is a coronavirus not much different to the common cold. We have no vaccine for the common cold do we?
I wouldn't believe anything coming out of China at the moment. They have known about the Bat problem for decades but as yet failed to do anything.
Perhaps they will find a way to treat the infection better with out hospitalization but you gotta think about what that might entail...given it's incredible infectiousness...
There is too much we don't know...
very true...
Last edited:
MERS - 2012 - No specific vaccine or treatment is available as of 2020
SARS - 2014 - No specific vaccine or treatment is available as of 2020
SARS COV-2 -2019 (COVID-19) - No specific vaccine or treatment is available as of 2020
I wouldn't hold your breath for a vaccine to be forthcoming... IMO ( excuse the pun)
Worth a look:
Maybe some wag will call this the first great failure-of-containment of the 21st century, or FOC-up, if you will.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
My understanding is that a peak number of infections in 2 weeks time will apply only to those areas that have been in lockdown for 2 weeks or more, i.e. where the "natural" transmission rate ( R ~ 2.5) has been severely cut (to R <1).
It is not the "natural" peak of the epidemic that would apply due to the development of immunity, in the absence of constraints on transmission. That (much higher) "natural" unconstrained peak would occur some 2 months from now.
My expectation would therefore be that in a country like the US, where there is apparently little to no national coordination of countermeasures, this will rumble on around the country, with further peaks in various areas at different times.