Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Seattle said:
The guy with the broadcast was also not in Moscow. He was still in a biggest city but it was not Moscow so he was talking about Putin's suggestions, countrywide suggestions but there was nothing more specific for that particular city.
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This does stand out given that it is Moscow... so may be worth monitoring. I can't access other Russian media ... not sure why. I don't usually try I must admit (keeping a low profile). I get only access to head lines & snips... Pravda Report has a lot to say but no access available at the moment.
I would anticipate censorship/IP blocking/Net shut down will get extreme if things don't improve.
 
Quantum Quack said:
This does stand out given that it is Moscow... so may be worth monitoring. I can't access other Russian media ... not sure why. I don't usually try I must admit (keeping a low profile). I get only access to head lines & snips... Pravda Report has a lot to say but no access available at the moment.
I would anticipate censorship/IP blocking/Net shut down will get extreme if things don't improve.
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I just happen to run into this guy running a video blog a long time ago so his content pops up on my YouTube every now and then. He happened to have a live feed today when I was at my computer.
 
Seattle said:
I just happen to run into this guy running a video blog a long time ago so his content pops up on my YouTube every now and then. He happened to have a live feed today when I was at my computer.
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Don't be surprised if he is taken offline. My contacts in Iran and China vanished a few weeks ago and I am still waiting for them to resurface.
 
I just watched a SBS TV world news clip on the chaos in India.
Imagine locking down over 1.5 billion people.
India is chaotic at the best of times but now, it is incredible.
 
Xelasnave.1947 said:
Relatively low it seems. I read a report, which I can't recall, that struck me as low ..that's why I asked what the news said. Thanks for your reply.
Alex
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The news showed millions of poor people attempting to flee the cities and head home to their villages, some walking 100's of miles. Massive inundation of transport hubs that are shut down. Reports of people dropping dead on the road from starvation etc...
and all the while many probably incubating this virus in the process.
There is not a lot more I am prepared to post on India...except to say that the situation will become more obvious within the next 14 days or so...
 
billvon said:
But demonstrating treason requires showing a concerted effort to betray the country - not just promote oneself without regard for the country.
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Most convictions for treason have involved people simply enriching themselves or otherwise pursuing a private agenda (such as satisfying a blackmailer) without regard for the country (or self-deceived about what they are doing). People most often commit treason for money, and that or blackmail would be the presumption with Trump - my presumption, anyway.

Historically, betraying one's country is not a common motivation for effort. Very few people really want to do that, and those people are not often diligent suppliers of "concerted effort". Serving one's country - acting to obtain foreign help in ridding one's country of some evil or another, with the result that one's country is betrayed instead - would be more common.
 
About the Data - New York
I have a contact in New York who is a Data Scientist, Author of some repute that I receive blog letters from in my inbox on rare occasions.
the following is a copy and paste of the latest received today 31-03-2020. ( Identity will remain anonymous)

I am, like you, restless and having trouble coping with the tragedy going on. It's especially hard to think through the logical details of issues that only two weeks ago seemed urgently important. So instead, like you, I find myself with an internal dialogue of how the publicized statistics are consistently biased or wrong. At the risk of simply supporting your own internal thoughts, here are a few of mine:

  1. We still aren't testing people, even in New York, which is the most tested population in the current mostly highly infected country according to the crap data we have.
  2. What that means to me is that we can ballpark how many actual cases we have if we know what the condition is for actually getting tested. In New York, it's something close to "needs hospitalization." Considering that only about the worst 10% of cases in countries that do widespread testing actually need hospitalization, that means we can multiply our confirmed case count by 10 to get an estimated total case count.
  3. That means that, instead of 60K cases in New York state, which is what this webpage says this morning, we can assume it's actually more like 600K.
  4. Similarly as a nation, we should multiply the confirmed case count of 143K by ten to get an estimated 1.43 million cases in the US.
  5. Is that an overestimate? Perhaps. It's possible that enough testing is happening in those car wash type setups, where people are at least capable of driving a car, to make it pessimistic.
  6. On the other hand, we've seen plenty of examples in the NYC area of people calling their doctor with intensely bad symptoms who are told not to overburden the hospital system and to take care of themselves at home.
  7. Also, it's worth pointing out that multiplying by 10 assumes that more than half, and perhaps up to 75% of all actual cases are entirely asymptomatic. This is something we've been seeing.
  8. All the above are ballpark reckoning, but honestly I trust my numbers more than any official ones.
  9. Especially because we've been hearing stories told in Spain and Italy that their death counts are not including horrible fucking things that have been happening in nursing homes. That means those terrible numbers are heavily underestimating actual deaths.
  10. Also, we should not trust China's death count numbers, which some say are underestimating actual death counts by a factor around 15.
  11. And if we don't trust their death counts, we should also not count their confirmed case count, which has been tiny.
  12. Why this matters a lot to us right now is that China closed Wuhan on January 23rd, which means they are/were under quarantine stricter than ours for more than two months, and we'd REALLY like to know what the actual situation is right now, but we don't.
  13. Long story short, being a skeptical data scientist means not trusting the data whatsoever. The best we can do is use the data and our real world knowledge to ballpark what might actually be happening. We will never know the true numbers.
  14. One exception might be the Netherlands, which I'm keeping my eyes on. I don't think they lie as much as most other countries.
  15. I could be wrong about that too.
  16. I hope tomorrow's post will be more optimistic.

I have not sought permission to post the above and if any one recognizes the blog post please respect that the writer may not wish to share their identity. There was no claim to copy right on the post.
I post it is only to highlight how the data we are relying on to form opinions etc can be so lacking in credibility.
 
It might be noting that Singapore which has been touted as being successful at containment etc, is now experienced a surge in case numbers and may eventually have to resort to draconian measures to bring it under control.
CC = 879 ( new 35(?) )
CFR= 3
It is worth noting, IMO, if anything to demonstrate the potential pervasiveness of this virus and it's general resistance to orthodox containment and quarantine measures.
Singapore were confident that they could contain it with out draconian measures and had remarkable initial success. According to what I have read they were fully prepared and acted rapidly once the threat was identified.
Yet here we are...some months later observing that their methods have not fully succeeded and yet may prove to be disastrous in the longer term.
 
The argument being made by you and the "data scientist" are that the actual cases are way too low. The death cases are accurate however so that just means that the reported death percent is an order of magnitude too high.

Ultimately we are probably looking at a death rate giving the entire US population of 1/3 of 1 percent or something like that.

It will be interesting to look at this years flu/virus death rate when it's all over and see if the numbers are out of the norm.

That's not to say that we shouldn't be doing everything (and more) that we are currently doing but the predicted additional deaths are likely to be overblown.
 
Seattle said:
The argument being made by you and the "data scientist" are that the actual cases are way too low. The death cases are accurate however so that just means that the reported death percent is an order of magnitude too high.

Ultimately we are probably looking at a death rate giving the entire US population of 1/3 of 1 percent or something like that.

It will be interesting to look at this years flu/virus death rate when it's all over and see if the numbers are out of the norm.

That's not to say that we shouldn't be doing everything (and more) that we are currently doing but the predicted additional deaths are likely to be overblown.
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I am not sure that it is as simple as that...
For example she mentions as OF NOW there may be as many as 1.43 million COVID cases in the USA and even with that blind spot the death toll is a conservative 3148
the 1.43 M estimate is an evolving figure and only relevant to the day it refers to.
extrapolate it this way:
1.43 million cases ( some confirmed) 3148 deaths
Assume total infection cases possible = 300 million

300/1.43= 209.7
3148 *209.7 = 660,135 fatalities

Reverse factor: for every 1 death there are 45,425 total cases ( hidden and confirmed)

You get a fatality rate of just 0.22% which is similar to the flu ..(?) assuming an unchanging ratio scenario.

However this assumes that the ratio of community transmission does not increase (unlikely) and that hospitals are not over whelmed ( which is most unlikely)
Community transmission increasing daily and health system failure appears inevitable at this stage
With poor containment ( social distancing) and an over whelmed health system the fatality rates will be considerably more than 0.22%

So..
If the USA can not slow the hidden transmission rates the actual death toll will be much more than 660K

Not good at math so I may have it screwed...( too quick for me)

Remember the Data scientist is using only ball park figures and generalized factoring.
 
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Seattle said:
The argument being made by you and the "data scientist" are that the actual cases are way too low. The death cases are accurate however so that just means that the reported death percent is an order of magnitude too high.

Ultimately we are probably looking at a death rate giving the entire US population of 1/3 of 1 percent or something like that.
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Possibly. That's still a million people.
 
Quantum Quack said:
I am not sure that it is as simple as that...
For example she mentions as OF NOW there may be as many as 1.43 million COVID cases in the USA and even with that blind spot the death toll is a conservative 3148
the 1.43 M estimate is an evolving figure and only relevant to the day it refers to.
extrapolate it this way:
1.43 million cases ( some confirmed) 3148 deaths
Assume total infection cases possible = 300 million

300/1.43= 209.7
3148 *209.7 = 660,135 fatalities

Reverse factor: for every 1 death there are 45,425 total cases ( hidden and confirmed)

You get a fatality rate of just 0.22% which is similar to the flu ..(?) assuming an unchanging ratio scenario.

However this assumes that the ratio of community transmission does not increase (unlikely) and that hospitals are not over whelmed ( which is most unlikely)
Community transmission increasing daily and health system failure appears inevitable at this stage
With poor containment ( social distancing) and an over whelmed health system the fatality rates will be considerably more than 0.22%

So..
If the USA can not slow the hidden transmission rates the actual death toll will be much more than 660K

Not good at math so I may have it screwed...( too quick for me)

Remember the Data scientist is using only ball park figures and generalized factoring.
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Your math is nonsensical. The fatality rate is 1.5%. You get that by dividing 3148 by 209,700,000.

Multiplying the total number that have died by everyone in the country that has been infected makes no sense.

We're close to reaching our peak infection rate in two weeks. If 3,148 have died up to now it's crazy to think 660,135 could make any sense as an answer.
 
Seattle said:
Your math is nonsensical. The fatality rate is 1.5%. You get that by dividing 3148 by 209,700,000.

Multiplying the total number that have died by everyone in the country that has been infected makes no sense.

We're close to reaching our peak infection rate in two weeks. If 3,148 have died up to now it's crazy to think 660,135 could make any sense as an answer.
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How does the 1,430,000 currently assumed infected mean to your figures.
At the moment we have:
Assumed infected 1,430,000 ( not 209.7M ) with current 3148 deaths...
The factor is 209.7
multiply 3148 by a factor of 209.7 = 660,135 deaths.

This assumes that transmission rates are static and that the heath system is not over whelmed.
 
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Quantum Quack said:
How does the 1,430,000 currently assumed infected mean to your figures.
At the moment we have:
Assumed infected 1,430,000 ( not 209.7M ) with current 3148 deaths...
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OK, the assumptions are way off. If we assume 1.4 million affected now and we are close to the peak, how are we to assume that 209 million will somehow become affected?
 
Seattle said:
OK, the assumptions are way off. If we assume 1.4 million affected now and we are close to the peak, how are we to assume that 209 million will somehow become affected?
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that's 300 million assumed not 209 million.
read my post again:
Quantum Quack said:
1.43 million cases ( some confirmed) 3148 deaths
Assume total infection cases possible = 300 million
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The actual population is more like 327 million
 
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