Good question. And if they arrest the progression of the virus there (mild to moderate) will people be incentivized to be out an about, instead of staying at home?
Corona Virus 2019-nCoV
- Thread starter Quantum Quack
- Start date
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
A related question would be whether this virus suppressing drugs reduce the infectiousness of these people. If the Basic ReproductionNumber is brought below 1.0, then it can help the epidemic to fizzle out.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Is this right? My understanding is that the virus has a tendency to cause viral pneumonia directly, rather than just enabling secondary infections.
Well, bacterial pneumonia is the most common serious complication in ordinary flu viruses. And during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, bacterial pneumonia was the #1 serious side effect. I don't think we know what the case is for COVID-19 but it's likely similar.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
According to this, it seems that it not infrequently causes a viral pneumonia: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/21/coronavirus-what-happens-to-lungs-covid-19
Yes, as exchemist has pointed out I have read also that bacterial pneumonia is a secondary where as viral pneumonia is a primary. This is why the CDC has considered it to be a viral SARS type infection.
We can effectively treat bacterial pneumonia with anti biotics most of the time (?) but I believe it is viral pneumonia which we can not treat effectively, that is the main reason for the CFR. Both require ICU with ventilators commonly , if I am not mistaken.
The main pre-existing condition of cardio vascular disease and other blood flow disorders seems to be very prevalent in fatalities. But really I am just speculating, possibly incorrectly, on what the media have been saying over the last 3 months or so...
Cardio Vascular disease and associated, is our biggest killer in Australia and it appears at this stage that most fatalities associated with COVID have a per-existing Cardio- vascular issue..and are taking necessary medications, medications that may exasperate the out come.
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According to JHU 22-03-2020 there are about 198,387 active cases currently in the world.
Confirmed 303,001
Fatalities: 12,944
Recovered: 91,669
----
Active: 198,387
CFR: 4.30%
Due to a recent surge in confirmed cases the recovery rate has dropped to about 30.25% of confirmed cases.
The daily WHO report is unfortunately lagging by about 30 hours or so, and thus not much use here. The situation is changing so rapidly...
Notes:
Russian news media is starting to be seriously concerned about Russia's case load/transparency issues. Foreign Journalists have been banned (?) Borders are heavily restricted. ( if not closed)
India appears to be chronically under reporting ,as is Indonesia.
Israel appears to have reasonable containment success.
Iran is any ones guess...
Confirmed 303,001
Fatalities: 12,944
Recovered: 91,669
----
Active: 198,387
CFR: 4.30%
Due to a recent surge in confirmed cases the recovery rate has dropped to about 30.25% of confirmed cases.
The daily WHO report is unfortunately lagging by about 30 hours or so, and thus not much use here. The situation is changing so rapidly...
Notes:
Russian news media is starting to be seriously concerned about Russia's case load/transparency issues. Foreign Journalists have been banned (?) Borders are heavily restricted. ( if not closed)
India appears to be chronically under reporting ,as is Indonesia.
Israel appears to have reasonable containment success.
Iran is any ones guess...
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just need about a billion of them for the general population to use... any one?
Great cottage industry, charity fundraiser idea ...
Latest fashion statement...perhaps.
Branding potential...
Great cottage industry, charity fundraiser idea ...
Latest fashion statement...perhaps.
Branding potential...
A fair number of the Covid deaths have been from the lung (or other organ, but lung especially) damage provoked by the virus itself - an immune system malfunction couples with the direct injury of viral replication to destroy a vital organ or two, and the patient dies.
It doesn't "usually" kill people, in the sense that most people survive the infection. But it does kill, all by itself, a disturbingly large percentage of those who get sick from it. (And it is setting up to foster mutations in a lethal direction, rather than a benign one, partly due to the poor response and other circumstances of its spread).
Also, and this is not being reported much in my neck of the woods, apparently Covid infection in its current varieties can do long-lasting damage (essentially permanent lung scarring, say) to those who "recover". It can cripple where it does not kill, and it is doing that fairly often if the numbers mean anything.
We really, truly, urgently, want to slow it down. We want to step on it wherever we can see it, wherever it is acting dramatically and making people visibly ill, even if we can't stop it completely that way. We want it to spread only cryptically, in its asymptomatic manifestations, and gain nothing by being aggressively infectious.
I think there's a lot of urgency now, in research and study of not just this virus but all of them. I think this pandemic will be known as the first great pandemic of the 21st century, and there will be more, perhaps less severe if we get our act together; I can't see what other option any government that isn't a bunch of batshit crazy, now has.
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
These numbers, apart from the deaths, are meaningless.
The number of confirmed cases bears no relation to the number of actual infections, since most cases are not being tested. The same applies to the "recovered" figure, since not all those testing +ve are followed up later, to confirm they are clear.
It is not the case that there are "about 198,387 cases in the world". There will be untold millions of them by now. And the idea of determining a "recovery rate" from these figures is absurd.
If one wants to determine mortality or recovery rate one needs a population fully screened, with full contact tracing and follow-up of each case. I'not sure even the Swiss can do that.
To give contrasting examples, the apparent "mortality rate" in Germany is about 0.3%, whereas in Italy the apparent rate is over 5%.
Sure ... Your point is taken...
However the stats do not refer to just cases, they refer to confirmed cases.
They do so for a reason.
You will notice that the deaths are not confirmed deaths nor are the recovered numbers confirmed.
But you are correct, the stats provided by JHU and the WHO are all very conservative.
The situation in the USA for example is far worse than indicated by JHU and the WHO.
but for me to post that would invite certain moderators to intervene...asking for evidence to support it.
It also makes no sense that China's vast regions other than Hubei are somehow immune or having little issue with COVID-19.
The other thing is that the entire world is locking down, crippling their economies in the process, for a damn good reason and it isn't because of the stats being reported by JHU. IMO.
The reality of it all is by many orders more severe...and has always been so..but avoiding global panic is absolutely essential if there is any chance of getting through this disaster.
I mean think about it ( as an example):
I and millions of Australians are stuck in their homes for God knows how long with out any ability to work or earn a living.
The governments are attempting to shore things up but we have to realise that this can not be a solid policy for very long. At some point if this Virus is not contained there will be no money left to do anything. So it is imperative that a vaccine be deployed and soon other wise civilization itself will be severely compromised.
Current estimates are that we are stuck in our homes for at least 3 months..but you may as well say 12 months or until we can make use of an effective vaccine.
The clock is ticking and the governments know it...
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exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Don't be stupid. Deaths are always confirmed. The other numbers tell you zero, as I have explained.
The rest of your post is one long non-sequitur.
If you wish to believe the death figures go right ahead... I don't.
In Australia we have only 7 deaths yet our Government is investing about 10% of GDP with more to come, locking down the entire nation, putting millions out of work, forcing residents to stay home, policing the empty streets ...
Why do you think they are doing that? Just because we have 7 deaths? I don't think so....
Agreed there. I think people are slowly coming to realize that this is nothing like the flu.
Because they are smart and realize that 7 could become 700,000 very easily unless drastic and significant steps are taken.
exchemist
Valued Senior Member
Another total non-sequitur. What I said - all I said - was that the numbers you were quoting for confirmed cases and for recoveries were meaningless.
That is a comment neither on the severity of the virus nor on the health policies of governments. It is just to stop people like you from going off the deep end and trying to draw unjustified conclusions from these numbers.
of course... duh!
I only mention the issue to prove my point. 7 deaths only and yet such a drastic set of responses from the Government tell you that data available for public digestion is chronically understated.
Also the inability to explain why testing is not being done more widely when such draconian restrictions have been put in place.
Rumor has it that there is a severe shortage of the chemicals needed to do the test kits but instead of admitting the problem they have been playing down the need to test. As such they are waiting for a better testing method to come online but confusing people while they try to hide the reality of it all.
Even today tests are only available to a small portion of the population as per a criteria that makes little sense. (This is likely to change very soon btw as the new test methods are established)
Every person needs to be tested at least once ASAP if we are to take the gravity of the situation seriously.
I was only agreeing with you and justifying why I do, and you shove it in my face as a non-sequitur. lol.
Your claim of non-sequitur is in fact, non-sequitur...