to aqueousID I'll try again to get you to understand what I said, with a simplified "cube model" of the earth. The cube's volume is the same as the earth's and is also orbiting one AU from the sun and making a 360 rotation each year (keeps same face turned towards the sun).
There is a thick only N2 and O2 atmosphere around the cube and the cube has infinite thermal conductivity (all 6 sides always at same temperature, T, which is initially the same temperature of the air contacting its surface), but the cube does have finite, non-zero, heat capacity. The air too has heat capacity but much less than the cube, yet the air layer around the cube is so thick that thermal conduction thru this thick, essentially transparent, air can be essentially ignored compare to the IR radiation to deep space. Also all convection can be ignored too as the thermal gradient to the distant top of the atmosphere is very small). I. e. like the real earth, the cube keeps cool by IR radiation to space.
This air/ cube system is in dynamic equilibrium with a flux of sunlight completely absorbed on one of its six perfectly black sides. I.e. at any point in the system the temperature is unchanging but does very very slowly decreases as the distance thru the air from the cube increases. (This is just the normal adiabatic expansion cooling, but the "lapse rate" is much less than the real earth's as the pressure at any altitude is much higher. I ignore UV heating / production of ozone, etc. to keep model simple.)
Now, by magic at t = 0, the N2, O2 air instantly undergo a chemical change making 1% of the nitrogen and oxygen into NO, a GHG. This disturbs the dynamic thermal equilibrium but I don't like magic so instead postulate something unforeseen happens in the sun to make exactly the same thermal disturbance at t = 0. Take your pick - it makes no difference to the fact the dynamic equilibrium is destroyed. The surface temperature of the cube begins to rise and the adjacent air in contact with the surface does too, making a slight, but still insignificant increase in the thermal gradient with altitude.
After one year, at t = 1, the cube and the air near its surface are at temperature T1 > T and the extra (compared to that being absorbed up until t = 0) energy that is then being received and absorbed by the air/cube system is half being "stored" in their heat capacities (mainly the cube's as it is much larger) but half is then at t = 1 increasing their average kinetic energies (i.e. raising their temperature). The temperature will keep raising for 49 years more until a new dynamic equilibrium is established at temperature Tf > T1. (f is for "final") I. e. when t = 50 all of the now larger (than when t < 0) net absorbed energy is again being IR radiated away to space. The "storage" of 50% of the extra energy in the system's heat capacity, as was the case when t = 1, has completely ceased. The cube temperature remains at Tf.
Just like I said in my post, that in 40 to 50 years the 50% storage of the extra net energy being absorbed / retained in 2014 by earth, due to more CO2 and other GHG than years ago, by the oceans would ease.
Do you understand the point I have been making now?
I. e. in about 45 years the heating of the air by already now greater net energy being absorbed (but 50% NOW is being stored in the ocean) will be like a 100% increase in the net solar energy being absorbed even if CO2 and other GHG concentration do not change as then that "storage" of 50% of the current net absorbed energy ceases.
There is a thick only N2 and O2 atmosphere around the cube and the cube has infinite thermal conductivity (all 6 sides always at same temperature, T, which is initially the same temperature of the air contacting its surface), but the cube does have finite, non-zero, heat capacity. The air too has heat capacity but much less than the cube, yet the air layer around the cube is so thick that thermal conduction thru this thick, essentially transparent, air can be essentially ignored compare to the IR radiation to deep space. Also all convection can be ignored too as the thermal gradient to the distant top of the atmosphere is very small). I. e. like the real earth, the cube keeps cool by IR radiation to space.
This air/ cube system is in dynamic equilibrium with a flux of sunlight completely absorbed on one of its six perfectly black sides. I.e. at any point in the system the temperature is unchanging but does very very slowly decreases as the distance thru the air from the cube increases. (This is just the normal adiabatic expansion cooling, but the "lapse rate" is much less than the real earth's as the pressure at any altitude is much higher. I ignore UV heating / production of ozone, etc. to keep model simple.)
Now, by magic at t = 0, the N2, O2 air instantly undergo a chemical change making 1% of the nitrogen and oxygen into NO, a GHG. This disturbs the dynamic thermal equilibrium but I don't like magic so instead postulate something unforeseen happens in the sun to make exactly the same thermal disturbance at t = 0. Take your pick - it makes no difference to the fact the dynamic equilibrium is destroyed. The surface temperature of the cube begins to rise and the adjacent air in contact with the surface does too, making a slight, but still insignificant increase in the thermal gradient with altitude.
After one year, at t = 1, the cube and the air near its surface are at temperature T1 > T and the extra (compared to that being absorbed up until t = 0) energy that is then being received and absorbed by the air/cube system is half being "stored" in their heat capacities (mainly the cube's as it is much larger) but half is then at t = 1 increasing their average kinetic energies (i.e. raising their temperature). The temperature will keep raising for 49 years more until a new dynamic equilibrium is established at temperature Tf > T1. (f is for "final") I. e. when t = 50 all of the now larger (than when t < 0) net absorbed energy is again being IR radiated away to space. The "storage" of 50% of the extra energy in the system's heat capacity, as was the case when t = 1, has completely ceased. The cube temperature remains at Tf.
Just like I said in my post, that in 40 to 50 years the 50% storage of the extra net energy being absorbed / retained in 2014 by earth, due to more CO2 and other GHG than years ago, by the oceans would ease.
Do you understand the point I have been making now?
I. e. in about 45 years the heating of the air by already now greater net energy being absorbed (but 50% NOW is being stored in the ocean) will be like a 100% increase in the net solar energy being absorbed even if CO2 and other GHG concentration do not change as then that "storage" of 50% of the current net absorbed energy ceases.
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