China's Emergence As A Global Superpower
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- Start date
I would think it likely."Bangladesh will have oil" Maybe I should invest in their oil industry.
The Great Leader, Hu Jintao, {The Most Equal of the equals} speaks (Monday 13OCT07): ...
"Contemporary China is going through a wide-ranging and deep-going transformation. This brings us unprecedented opportunities as well as unprecedented challenges" Hu said.
Hu pledged to cut pollution:
Beijing will ... "promote a conservation culture by basically forming an energy- and resource-efficient and environmentally friendly structure of industries, pattern of growth and mode of consumption," ...
Hu pledged to:
"make the communist government more open and responsive while moderating the juggernaut economy to produce balanced and environmentally friendly growth."
Hu also promised to:
continue a buildup of China's military, {but} emphasized Beijing's preference for a peaceful settlement with rival Taiwan, and pledged to use the country's economic and diplomatic clout as a force for peace internationally.
Hu reiterated:
an offer to end the hostilities between China and Taiwan since their separation amid civil war 58 years ago. Hu, however, restated a condition for talks that has been anathema to Taiwan's democratic government — that the island must recognize that it is a part of China.
Hu reveled in the achievements China has made since he took over, pointedly referring to:
income growth and its two manned space missions.
"During this period, China's overall strength grew considerably and the people enjoyed more tangible benefits. China's international standing and influence rose notably," Hu said.
{A strong and growing middle class has emerged in China, under Hu. Seven of the ten largest shopping malls in the world are in China! China is the fastest growing and largest market for luxury goods. Many are now "More equal" than others. Their purchasing power will in about a decade exceed that of ALL Americans - China will have little need of the US market and this is another reason why inflation will hit Joe American (in addition to the Treasury's need to pay off maturing Bonds with "printing press" money.) - China's cheaper exports will be going to the suppliers of raw materials and food stocks, not to Joe. Joe, especially if his job has been exported, will buy much less, with US in a terrible "stagflation" as high interest rates contribute to the deep depression, while the factories in China still "hum" to meet the growing internal and export demands.}
Hu dwelled on {"Harmonious Society"}:
a push to re-channel breakneck development by spreading the benefits of economic growth more evenly. I.e.:
Hu referred to the social divisions that have erupted from fast growth — gaps between rich and poor, urban and rural — and made an oblique reference to an emerging, demanding middle class. Hu said:
"There are still a considerable number of impoverished and low-income people in both urban and rural areas, and it has become more difficult to accommodate the interests of all sides."
{Neither Mao, nor Demg, both absolute rulers, would have ever admitted that! Both are surely gyrating in their graves because from their POV, the CP has clearly "lost it way".}
Hu's leadership has never been threatened, but he is largely seen as weaker than past leaders, forcing him to compromise on some top appointments and other decisions. In a sign of possible constraints, Hu's retired predecessor, Jiang Zemin, was appointed to the committee handling the congress' arrangements, state media. {Jiang is leader of the "Rebublican like" opposition. "Democrate like" {Hu's faction of CP} is now dominate}
With Hu at the midway point of his expected 10-year term, the congress offers him a chance to further entrench his role as first among equals in the party's increasingly collegial leadership structure. A key measure of Hu's influence will be how many of his political allies he can maneuver into top party jobs, including proteges expected to take over from him when he steps down in five years. Deliberations over the next leadership lineup have been going on for months and will take place this week behind closed doors. Its makeup is officially announced after the congress ends.
Broadcast live on nationwide television, the far-ranging speech lasting more than two hours and 20 minutes. Reflecting Hu's cautious manner, it contained few initiatives while laying out a blueprint for upcoming policies.
While Hu spoke, police and soldiers who sealed off Tiananmen Square and the areas around the Great Hall of the People detained at least two dozen people, many of them elderly, forcing them into police vans. Many carried documents detailing grievances against local officials and hoped to get the attention of Chinese leaders.
{Above text is from source, except inserts in these "curly brackets", but has been rearranged (for greater coherence) and Bold added by Billy T}
FROM:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071015/ap_on_re_as/china_politics
"Contemporary China is going through a wide-ranging and deep-going transformation. This brings us unprecedented opportunities as well as unprecedented challenges" Hu said.
Hu pledged to cut pollution:
Beijing will ... "promote a conservation culture by basically forming an energy- and resource-efficient and environmentally friendly structure of industries, pattern of growth and mode of consumption," ...
Hu pledged to:
"make the communist government more open and responsive while moderating the juggernaut economy to produce balanced and environmentally friendly growth."
Hu also promised to:
continue a buildup of China's military, {but} emphasized Beijing's preference for a peaceful settlement with rival Taiwan, and pledged to use the country's economic and diplomatic clout as a force for peace internationally.
Hu reiterated:
an offer to end the hostilities between China and Taiwan since their separation amid civil war 58 years ago. Hu, however, restated a condition for talks that has been anathema to Taiwan's democratic government — that the island must recognize that it is a part of China.
Hu reveled in the achievements China has made since he took over, pointedly referring to:
income growth and its two manned space missions.
"During this period, China's overall strength grew considerably and the people enjoyed more tangible benefits. China's international standing and influence rose notably," Hu said.
{A strong and growing middle class has emerged in China, under Hu. Seven of the ten largest shopping malls in the world are in China! China is the fastest growing and largest market for luxury goods. Many are now "More equal" than others. Their purchasing power will in about a decade exceed that of ALL Americans - China will have little need of the US market and this is another reason why inflation will hit Joe American (in addition to the Treasury's need to pay off maturing Bonds with "printing press" money.) - China's cheaper exports will be going to the suppliers of raw materials and food stocks, not to Joe. Joe, especially if his job has been exported, will buy much less, with US in a terrible "stagflation" as high interest rates contribute to the deep depression, while the factories in China still "hum" to meet the growing internal and export demands.}
Hu dwelled on {"Harmonious Society"}:
a push to re-channel breakneck development by spreading the benefits of economic growth more evenly. I.e.:
Hu referred to the social divisions that have erupted from fast growth — gaps between rich and poor, urban and rural — and made an oblique reference to an emerging, demanding middle class. Hu said:
"There are still a considerable number of impoverished and low-income people in both urban and rural areas, and it has become more difficult to accommodate the interests of all sides."
{Neither Mao, nor Demg, both absolute rulers, would have ever admitted that! Both are surely gyrating in their graves because from their POV, the CP has clearly "lost it way".}
Hu's leadership has never been threatened, but he is largely seen as weaker than past leaders, forcing him to compromise on some top appointments and other decisions. In a sign of possible constraints, Hu's retired predecessor, Jiang Zemin, was appointed to the committee handling the congress' arrangements, state media. {Jiang is leader of the "Rebublican like" opposition. "Democrate like" {Hu's faction of CP} is now dominate}
With Hu at the midway point of his expected 10-year term, the congress offers him a chance to further entrench his role as first among equals in the party's increasingly collegial leadership structure. A key measure of Hu's influence will be how many of his political allies he can maneuver into top party jobs, including proteges expected to take over from him when he steps down in five years. Deliberations over the next leadership lineup have been going on for months and will take place this week behind closed doors. Its makeup is officially announced after the congress ends.
Broadcast live on nationwide television, the far-ranging speech lasting more than two hours and 20 minutes. Reflecting Hu's cautious manner, it contained few initiatives while laying out a blueprint for upcoming policies.
While Hu spoke, police and soldiers who sealed off Tiananmen Square and the areas around the Great Hall of the People detained at least two dozen people, many of them elderly, forcing them into police vans. Many carried documents detailing grievances against local officials and hoped to get the attention of Chinese leaders.
{Above text is from source, except inserts in these "curly brackets", but has been rearranged (for greater coherence) and Bold added by Billy T}
FROM:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20071015/ap_on_re_as/china_politics
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Challenger78
Valued Senior Member
It is possible that there will be a conflict between the USA and China over Taiwan..
Yes, but very unlikely to be a military one for two reasons (both of which I have repeated posted):
(1)Mainland China is rapidly converting the voting majority of Taiwan to DESIRE reunification. The only real faction still opposed is the farmers, who fear loss of their jobs if produce is imported from the main land. Many of the business community have already "voted with their feet" For example, a decade ago about half of the exports of Taiwan were either computers or computer related with many computers were made in Taiwan. Today not one is! All the makers have moved to the mainland, attracted by its much larger market.
The only reason the farmer's party won the last presidential election is that a couple of days before the election, their candidate "suffered" an assignation attempt. He was hit by several bullets in the torso, but only one had enough energy to break the skin, so much gun powder had been removed from the shells. This farce was well timed. - News of it just had time to spread throughout the country side and the angry farmers all made the effort to get to the polls and vote. The "assigin," who fired several times from inside the dense crowd along the parade route "fortunately" had a surrounding group protecting his escape and was never caught. Police blocked the crowd from chasing him. Broadway could not have staged a better performance!
(2) The prestige and power of the mainland is rapidly growing and many Chinese, even some living in the US want to return and be part of China's great advance. Taiwan, in contrast is losing ground. Even the US is not willing to re-iterate its promises to defend Taiwan or support its current president's desire for independent country status, UN membership, etc. IMHO, this is in large part because two things.
(a) China's growing military power deployed along the Taiwan straight. The US's Navy (admiral?) in charge of the (seventh?) fleet just a few weeks ago complained/ admitted that the Chinese had better, more modern fighters than his F-16s. And when the dense net of costal radars along the straight for air control is added, the outcome of an aerial conflict could not be assured.
About a year ago, China publically humiliated the US by forcing a "spy-plane" over international waters to land in China, took out its sophisticated electronic ease-dropping equipment and then CHARGED the US for the cost of returning the stripped hull (I think they even kept at least one of the engines for study, but my memory on this is uncertain.)
(b) If US should be so foolish as to fight to protect Taiwan, the cost to US could be very high (and to China also) China, at great pain to itself still (but not in a few years) can use its 1.4 trillion of reserves to destroy the US economy. Both DC and China understand this.
Only some great miscalculation plus stupid "face saving" could possible result in open US/ Chinese war, outside of the current economic struggle, which China is clearly winning. I.e., China has no motive for making war now that it is winning the re-unification battle and US has no need or desire to provoke the Mainland - in fact is silently supporting peaceful re-unification.
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You're confused about how purchasing power relates to international trade. It is possible that China's economy, in PPP terms, will be the same same as the United States in a decade or so. However, this does not mean that China's internal market will be big enough to displace the external markets (in particular America). The reason for this is that when Americans buy stuff from China, they don't pay in "PPP dollars." They pay at the exchange rate. And the exchange rate is like 7.5:1. The "purchasing power" of Americans with respect to Chinese goods is 6 times that of Chinese people, and it will take decades of continued 10% growth for them to close that gap.
The only way that the Chinese internal market is going to swamp out the American market any time soon is if there's a radical change in exchange rates. Since this goes against the explicit policy of the Chinese government, however, it's very unlikely.
Not even close to true. Next time you see a Taiwanese person, try referring to them as "Chinese" and see how they react.
No it's not. You may recall that the F-16 is about 20 years old, and America has many much fancier planes in it's arsenal (which are stealthy enough to fly right through Chinese air defenses). This is a ploy by said admiral to get more, better planes under his command, not an indication of strategic realignment.
Probably true; your facts are usually correct, but according to the Admrial (regardless of his reasons) the seventh fleet's planes are significantly inferior to those the Chinese have routinely overflying the Taiwan Straith . (I could only confidently recall the designation "F-16." I think the other fighter (of the two he named as under his control) was the F-15, but do not easily remember designations like these. As 15 < 16, I assumed it is even more obsolete. Only what he actually has, not what the US has deployed inIraq, etc. is important when the shooting starts, if it stupidly ever dose.)
Do you think the US wanted China to capture its spy-plane and strip out its electronics? No- US was powerless to stop that. You fight with what you got near the battle.)
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You are beginning to give evidence that sometimes, like the Baron, you can not read with comprehension. I never even hinted that the domestic market ALONE will replace current American purchase from China. And yes- I have clearly indicated the the PPP of the dollar is on its way down already and I expect it to greately accelerate as central banks contiune to invest an never increasing percent of thier reserves held in "sovern funds"* as they are already rapidly doing. You are again knocking down strawmen, you set up. I NEVER SAID ANYTHING LIKE THAT - not here, or in any other prior post. Infact, ususally when speaking of these things, I note that Brazil is destined to become an "economic colony" of China.
Already China trades more with EU than US, but the growth of Chinese exports to the suppliers of its raw materials, energy and food stocks is much more rapidly expanding than the expansion into Europe.
As far as the likely hood of upward evaluation of the Yuan, against the dollar, I agree with iceaura in post 629, noting further that it is happening and at an increasing rate. Even more important is the decline of the Yaun agaist the Euro - why Europeans are already displacing Americans as China's best customers.
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*I hope Brazil soon creates its sovern fund and stops buying dollars for Brazil's sake, but this will hurt me economically as then the dollar will drop even more rapidly against the Real.
(BTW it is now down to only 1.80 R$, not the 4$R a dollar would buy about three years ago. I.e. in Brazil dollar has lost about 15% annually averaged over the recent years. This is not all due to the great demand for the comodities Brazil exports. For example in 2007 along (not yet over) the dollar has lost 11.6% against the Euro.)
Dollar is going $-->DOWN,DOWN,DOWn.DOwn,Down,down,down,$! I do not like this as that hurts PPP of my Social Security checks - (I can no longer live on them alone), but I am realistic about thing I can not change. I certainly have tried here (with warning for three or more years) plus suggestions for changes, and in my book, to slow the dollar's desent.
Any european central bank holding US Treasury bonds during 2007 has LOST about 6% (AFTER taking the interest paid into consideration, of course) of its investment in PPP in Europe - even the most stupid ones will not long continue to buy the Treasury's bonds. More details in my thread on Sovern Funds
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I currently do not have opportunity to talk with any, but the few I might would give nothing signifcant compared to how they voted. They are very evenly split on the re-unification issue, but it is true that they do not want to lose their freedoms. Those in favor of reunion want to rejoin under the one government/ two systems as did Hong Kong.
China is being very clever about this - opened direct air flights and reduced trade barriers etc. Only the "ASSIGNATION FARSE" * TURNED OUT ENOUGH FARMERS to permit the party opposed to re-union to win the last election and still the results were very close.
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*See my post 625's second paragraph of point (1) for details about it.
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In the long run, sure. But Billy T was talking about the short term. China maintained a fixed peg for over a decade, and has kept the rate in a tight band for the last couple of years. Even if they allowed the dollar to float freely it would take quite a long time to get from 7.5:1 to something like 1:1.
Why do you always come out with this weak accusation of "staw men" when someone calls you on your inconsistencies? The most charitable reading I can come up with for your comments is that you didn't say what you meant to, but that is in no way my fault.
Given that you have said countless times that you expect the EU to go into a deep depression at the same time as the United States, I don't see how this affects my response to your theory.
Dude, China runs trade *deficits* with those countries. Which is to say, China's imports of raw materials, energy and food is increasing even faster than said exports.
This is the same phenomenon as the decline of the dollar with respect to the Euro: it is occuring exactly because China has a "soft peg" to the dollar. If the dollar comes back up with respect to the Euro, the yuan will likewise follow.
How many times am I going to have to point out that you're choosing your statistics to correspond to a currency crisis in Brazil before you stop trying to employ this cheap trick? It's certainly not fooling me.
No, it hurts the *exchange rate* of your checks. It's only because you don't live in the United States that this affects your bottom line. The rest of us could care less what the real does.
You should really stop throwing around the term "purchasing power" until you learn what it does and does not refer to.
Yes, they have F-15s and F-16s deployed there. It should be mentioned that China's planes are no match for these fighters, much less for American radars and SAMs. All this means is that America can no longer use decades-old planes to attack China with impunity. We'd have to use modern planes and missiles to destroy their radar and control systems first. Not really a big deal.
It may come as a shock to you to learn that planes are capable of flying at great speeds. America could have plenty of advanced stealth planes in Japan in 12 hours if the shit were to hit the fan. For that matter, America has plenty of air combat systems that can fly missions against targets anywhere in the world from *inside* the United States. There's no need to station your planes far away when they can cruise at almost twice the speed of sound.
I have been very specific on my time scales (Call them long or short term as you like) - I used the calander for my main "black cloud" prediction:
I.e. run on dollar to occur in the 6 year window October 2008 to October 2014.
My lesser prediction (of DOW "flerting with 15,000") is to happen before the 51st day of 2008 (originally was "by end of the first quarter of 2008.")* So that one is now "short term," but certainly was not when first made. (Dow below 12,000 then.)
China's middle class to have purchsing power exceeding all Americans "in about a decade." It will not be by China's current 6 times faster growth that this is achived (to any signifivant extent), but by the continued outsourcing of the higher paid US jobs and the depression that follows the collapse of the dollar that is projected in above "black cloud" prediction. I.e. in less than a decade the US and soon thereafter, EU will be in the historically worst "stagflation" ever with US mint's printing presses paying off the US treasury's bonds (that few will roll when they mature at any interest rate not more damaging to the economy than the stagflation).
No need to be vague when citing my predicitons. I do not consider them to be "short term" except for the "DOW flerting with 15,000," which now will "make or brake" in 46+50 = 96 days, approximately one fiscal quarter.
For me, however, a decade is not "short term."
BTW, DOW dropped 108+ points today to cose below 14,000 so this will be a close one now, but I will stick with my several years old call still.
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*Given today's 108 point drop I may live to regret voluntarily moving the deadline closer by 40 days.
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From http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_reunification#Taiwan:
"Chinese reunification is often viewed as being the ideology of the Mainlanders who are living in Taiwan. The proportion of Mainlanders who support reunification when compared to the native Taiwanese is much higher. The parties which do advocate a stance more sympathetic towards reunification often command considerable support for reasons that have nothing to do with cross-strait relations. Furthermore, even strong supporters of reunification often have deep reservations about its timing and nature.
Throughout much of the last decade, polls consistently suggest that 70% to 80% of all Taiwanese support maintaining the status quo; although the definition of the status quo is an area of intense debate. Immediate reunification is currently a distant notion in Taiwan supported by only about 10% of Taiwanese residents and endorsed by none of the major political parties. The People First Party officially advocates that Taiwan should maintain the status quo. The Kuomintang has been consistently defending the sovereignty of the Republic of China. They often claim that there is one China, that is the Republic of China. Although those two parties and the New Party have often been viewed as supporters of Chinese reunification, in most cases they are so in a traditional sense only. Their main difference with the pan-green coalition is that they believe Taiwan should identify itself culturally with China, and opposes what it views as a switching of national identities. This makes them more sympathetic to the concept of reunification in the future. "One Country, Two Systems" has support only among 6-7% of Taiwanese. The main argument for this is the belief that Taiwan, a small island, ultimately cannot compete with the mainland, and hence will benefit the most by reunifying as early as possible."
Wiki is oten wrong even on scientific matters (for example I recently noted one of their major mistakes on how MRI works.)* On political matters, especially the more controversal ones, such as China/Taiwan or Israel/ Palestine etc. they are usually only reflecting the biases of the more active group.
The only poll that count is the election poll and that was close between basically the farmers and the business groups (against and for reunion on terms which preserve their freedom.)
Wiki is so bad on these contraversal political quesions that it is not worth reading, so I did not look at your link.
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*See:
http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=1571740&postcount=27
for my discussion of this Wiki error. It is but the most recent I have posted. I rarely search wiki as it is so full of mistakes and "slanted journalism" by various advocates.
Another I recal posting corrects here about concerned their diagram of various spectrographs. Their grading type would not even work as the slits are shown orthogonal to the rulings on the grading! They also failed to even mention the simplist type (one slit and one concave mirror with the rulling on it), called the "Rowland circle." It was the first succesful grading type and used film.
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Impugning the accuracy of Wikipedia in general is not a terribly convcing rebuttal. That's not to say that errors don't creep in, but unless you can point to even one error in the article in question, it's a moot point. I might as well point out that you make mistakes much more frequently than Wikipedia, and so simply dismiss everything you say out of hand.
On top of that, if you'd so much as bothered to read the quoted material, you'd have noticed that it raised very pertinent issues related to partisan support. I.e., to the extent that "pro-reunification" parties get support, they are advocates not of joining with the CCP in a Hong Kong style arrangement, but of the traditional Taiwanese position that the CCP is illegitimate and should be replaced by ROC rule. The debate in Taiwan is over whether they should pursue independence, or stick to the traditional goal of destroying the CCP and ruling all of China. Nobody is in favor of knuckling under, with the exception of a small contingent of recent immigrants from the mainland and some business types who are in the pocket of the CCP.
But, hey, why make a reasoned point when you can simply ignore any facts that don't support the unfounded narrative you tossed out without any research or thought?
On top of that, if you'd so much as bothered to read the quoted material, you'd have noticed that it raised very pertinent issues related to partisan support. I.e., to the extent that "pro-reunification" parties get support, they are advocates not of joining with the CCP in a Hong Kong style arrangement, but of the traditional Taiwanese position that the CCP is illegitimate and should be replaced by ROC rule. The debate in Taiwan is over whether they should pursue independence, or stick to the traditional goal of destroying the CCP and ruling all of China. Nobody is in favor of knuckling under, with the exception of a small contingent of recent immigrants from the mainland and some business types who are in the pocket of the CCP.
But, hey, why make a reasoned point when you can simply ignore any facts that don't support the unfounded narrative you tossed out without any research or thought?