What's new in Syria

[joepistole]

There are other countries in the world which are also interested in buying oil and gas. And don't worry, Russia has thought about its ability to survive in case of a real cold war against the West. And it has decided that it can live with this.

Well if other countries in the world are interested in buying oil and have the money to pay for it, they are probably buying oil today. If Russia wants to cut oil prices in order to gain market share, I say do it. But that exacerbates Russia's financial woes and it's contrary to what Russian state officials have been trying to do in recent months.

This isn't a matter of what Russia thinks it can live with, it's a matter of what Mother Russia is forced to live with.

LOL, Russia has recently developed a vacation against Ebola. So, it has own abilities in this domain too. And, of course, it has also own computers. Or do you really think that the Russian nuclear weapons are controlled by Western computers or Western software? This would be really dangerous.

Well, here is the thing; no one knows that to be true. I know this is tough for you, but just because Putin says something, it doesn't make it true. Putin is known to say a lot of things that aren't true.

"Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Wednesday his country had developed a vaccine for the Ebola virus which has killed thousands of people in West Africa.

But Putin, who is famed for his talent for headline-grabbing announcements, did not give any name for the vaccine, nor did he say how it worked, who was developing it or give details of any trials." - Discovery

http://news.discovery.com/human/health/putin-claims-russia-has-developed-ebola-vaccine-160113.htm

But, hey, you are just doing what you always to, blindly accepting whatever Putin tells you. And let’s not forget, the West developed a very effective Ebola vaccine years ago.

The fact is Russia is a technology backwater and remains highly dependent upon the West for technology of any sort.

 

[Schmelzer]

News from Syria are good again, except for Erdogan and other fans of Al Qaida.

Hezbollah has taken even two towns, above greater than the key village Mu'arasat Khan taken yesterday, namely Mayir in the West of it and Kafr Naya North of it. So, the small corridor created yesterday becomes thick. http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...-in-new-northern-aleppo-offensive-map-update/
"Divide et impera" already seems to work, with the small Northern part seeming to be the weaker one.

Even more important, the Kurds have started to act, and have taken at least one village Ziyara http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/ypg-take-ziyarah-in-north-aleppo/ but according to twitter sources already more, namely the neighbour village Kureyba and a place named Feysal factory on the Aziz-Aleppo highway. Thus, Kurds and Syrian army nicely cooperate against the terrorists. The article mentions that the Kurdish attack has been prepared by Russian airstrikes, thus, all this looks nicely coordinated.

One should not forget that the Kurds get a lot of support from the US, because the US also needs some foot on the ground and does not want to send the own army. The Russians are also not against nice cooperation with the Kurds. And the Kurds will use this in their own interest. And the point here is that what the Kurds want is to take the Kurdish regions - which are those North of Aleppo up to the Euphrat. The US wants, instead, the Kurds fighting for them in Raqqa, which is Arab territory, so that the Kurds are not really interested. So, it looks like the Kurds will be nice to the US, as long as the US gives some support as well as some defense against Erdogan. But what they really do is what the Russians want - and what they want themself - control the whole Northern border. They want it because it is Kurdish, the Russians want them to do this because this is the main supply route for ISIS, and was the main for Al Qaida.

Whatever, it looks like the Northern part of Al Qaida territory will be subdivided between Kurds, Syrian army/Hezbollah, and ISIS. To get as much as possible of it, they essentially all have to attack now. Else, the other sides may take it all. Reinforcements from the Southern part are at least much more difficult now, they have to go through Turkey, thus, have to be at least a little bit hidden for diplomatic reasons.

So I would expect some larger part of Al Qaida there simply switching sides to ISIS, to have only two instead of three enemies and may be to get even some support from ISIS. We will see. Given that the town Mayir, which was quite a long time the border toward the government enclave, that means, which has been prepared nicely over a long time against any attacks, was falling in a single day, without any fights even been mentioned around it yesterday, and with enough forces of the enemy to take yet another nearby town, tells that Al Qaida is actually quite weak there.

Another thing should, by the way, not be forgotten: It was this way where Al Qaida in Aleppo and Idlib has got its oil - from ISIS. The route is closed now - so their way to get oil is now longer, from Turkey.

 

[joepistole]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ff20c294-c0f9-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#ixzz3zEG0CTvjR

Russian president Vladimir Putin’s geopolitical ambitions are crashing into the reality of economics and globalisation. The renewed plunge in oil prices is again combining with western sanctions imposed over Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine to strangle the Russian economy. With the rouble tumbling, threatening Russia with a second year of recession, the crisis is at least as severe as during the first big decline in oil prices in late 2014.

Beyond energy prices and sanctions lies a more fundamental problem. Russia’s economic growth model of the first decade of this century is exhausted. Then, rising oil revenues stimulated a consumer boom that brought mothballed Soviet-era capacity back into production. Decent growth is only possible now with substantial investment into new capacity and raising productivity. Sanctions, however, have compounded years of failure to modernise and reform the system of corrupt state capitalism that has developed under Mr Putin and killed off investment.

Moscow has tried to present its isolation of the past two years as an opportunity to develop its domestic industry through import institution. Even that, however, requires investment and foreign technology. In a heavily inter-
connected world, autarky is not an option. Russia’s “pivot” to China, meanwhile, has proved no substitute for western financing and know-how.

The most pressing issue for the Kremlin is the plummeting rouble. As the currency plumbs depths that once seemed unthinkable, Russians’ buying power and living standards have been hugely eroded. Mr Putin’s lofty ratings since annexing Crimea look vulnerable. None of the options for supporting the currency — burning through more of Russia’s $360bn exchange reserves, a big interest rate hike, or currency controls — is very palatable.

The only real long-term answer to Russia’s economic woes is sweeping structural reforms to liberalise the economy and strengthen the rule of law. Yet Mr Putin has ducked all previous opportunities to undertake such steps, fearing they could threaten his control. Powerful vested interests, including cronies who prospered under his presidency, stand in opposition.

Giving reforms any real chance of success, meanwhile, would almost certainly require the return — perhaps as premier — of one of the two liberal champions of Mr Putin’s first two terms, Alexei Kudrin, the ex-finance minister, or former economy minister Herman Gref. The president, again, seems reluctant to countenance the necessary political shake-up.

Instead, Mr Putin appears to be seeking to ease western sanctions. He has adopted a more constructive posture towards implementing last year’s Minsk peace deal for eastern Ukraine, appointing close associates as negotiators. As diplomatic efforts intensify to end the four-year Syrian war, the Russian leader has also pressed president Bashar al-Assad to stand down.

If genuine, such efforts are to be welcomed — though the EU and US should not engage in the kind of slate-wiping “reset” that followed Russia’s 2008 war with Georgia. Nor should they contemplate any murky deal to lift sanctions to secure Moscow’s help in Syria, without Minsk being implemented in full.

For Mr Putin, easing sanctions could buy time and restore at least some economic growth, as he faces parliamentary polls this year and a presidential ballot in 2018. But continuing to delay reforms will harm Russia’s future, leaving it even further behind the world’s advanced economies. If Russians’ living standards continue to stagnate, it could ultimately be very bad for Mr Putin’s own future too. - Financial Times

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ff20c294-c0f9-11e5-846f-79b0e3d20eaf.html#axzz3z95HEiDY

 

[Schmelzer]

You have made it many times....remember the whole "if then" tiff?

This was about "if the oil price falls for a factor x, then one can buy less by a factor of x for the income of selling oil". For small children as well as stupid adults, who have problems with understanding the meaning of such letters, it is easier to understand the meaning if instead of the general x one uses a particular example. This was the reason that, in a discussion with you, I have used the particular number x=2. You have nonetheless been unable to get the meaning of this "if then", but, sorry, this is your problem, not my.

As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, the facts are Russia has repeatedly overestimated oil prices. Mother Russia estimates oil well sell for 50 dollars per barrel this year, it's currently selling for less than 30 dollars a barrel...oops.

Of course, Russia has developed several scenarios, as reasonable people do, and one of them was with 50 \$, which is reasonable if at the time one develops the scenarios (which is, if reasonable people do such things, not the 31. of December, but a few months before) the actual price is in this region.

As previously and repeatedly pointed out to you, if Mother Russia could produce the goods it imports from the West, it would.

In peaceful time, there is no reason for this, instead, trade is useful for above sides. And if one exports things like oil, one will also import something.

To produce everything itself becomes a necessity in wartime, already Cold War time. This was not Putin's plan, it was the West who has started all this in the Ukraine. So, now Russia really starts to care about this. Else, why producing things one can buy from the West much cheaper?

Producing enough food is important in such times, that's why Putin has used the agrarian sector for his countersanctions.

Except, they were not and are not behind paywalls. But even if they were, you cannot cough up a dollar?

The one which I have commented that way was. And I would never spend even a single cent for supporting Western propaganda, even if I would be a millionaire.

Contrary to your assertion, Putin is desperately seeking foreign investment, even going so far as sell the crown jewels of Russian assets.

Contrary to your assertions, I have already said that in such a special situation selling some government property is also reasonable.

Well, you are being more than a little disingenuous comrade. There are large day to day variances in the value of the ruble which are largely attributable to Russian central bank interventions.

You think so? I don't think so.

Let's be clear here, I said your assertion that Russia's foreign currency reserves were sufficient to pay off Russian state debt is debatable, and I further said, even if that were so, it isn't sufficient and I explained why. Because Mother Russia has foreign currency needs that go far beyond just paying state debts.

Yep, and I have explained that your explanation is stupid.

No, it's a problem for Mother Russia for the reasons which have been repeatedly explained to you. Foreign investors stop investing if Russian companies default. And that's a big problem for Mother Russia.

Feel free to believe it is a big problem. I don't. And I have explained why.

Let's say you run a company in Russia and you need some equipment and technology made by a foreign company. So you enter into a contract with a foreign company to by that product. No country foreign company would be willing to enter a ruble contract in part because the ruble is such an unstable currency. So the contract would be denominated in a more stable currency like the US Dollar. Where does the Russian purchaser get the dollars needed for the purchase?

I go with my rubles to the exchange and exchange. There is a free market for this. Not?

But if it is like most Russian firms, it doesn't have that access. Most of its cash is vested in rubles. The only place those firms can get the foreign currency they need to pay their bills is from the Russian central bank. If Russian companies stop paying their debts, they will no longer be able to purchase foreign goods. Russian hospitals would no longer have access to Western medical supplies and pharmaceuticals.

LOL, as if the central bank the only owner of dollar in Russia. I tell you a secret: Almost everybody in Russia owns some dollars. I tell you another one: If one company does not pay its debt, it is bankrupt and no longer interested in purchasing any goods at all, not even foreign. But that's a problem of this particular company. Not of Russian hospitals.

You have been given numerous examples of state workers and private workers who have not been paid. Remember, you previously asserted, you could find no evidence on the internet that Russian workers were not being paid.

No. I have not even searched, so I cannot even know if I would have been able to find. It is not interesting to search, because there will be, of course, companies near default, and this will be even more often in a recession, and one way to solve such problems is to pay wages later - recognizing that the workers know that if they insist to be paid now, the firm goes simply bankrupt and they will be out of work.

My claim was different, namely that, even given that I spend much time in the runet, I have not seen them, they are not really a serious problem. If you see a lot of them, fine, means you visit other parts of the runet. (Ok, this is just a joke, I know that all you use is Western propaganda, and that part of the internet is of course full of such problems.)

As previously explained to you, Russia's small positive trade balance is quickly becoming a negative trade balance.

The "explanation" consisting of simply continuing a curve, which has, as its origin, a heavy oil price decrease.

You have to understand that this is not really a good idea. I explain you in a simple example: If the oil price goes down from 100 to 50 (factor 2), and the oil export remains the same, together with everything else, this gives a certain decrease in the trade balance. What would have to be the oil price if next year the same decrease in the trade balance will happen, because of lower oil prices? Answer: The oil price would have to do down to 0 (factor oo).

(In the hope that I do not have to explain during the next 10 posts that I have not claimed that last year the oil price was going down from 100\$ to 50\$.)

Even if, the decline in Russia's trade accounts were to stop, its modest positive trade balance wouldn't be sufficient to cover Russia's debts and foreign currency needs.

Which is simply nonsense. The foreign currency needs for buying imports are, if the trade balance is positive, completely covered by the exports. What remains is the debt to be paid. But Russia has, in comparison with most other countries, a quite low debt, and one can expect that all the balance of all the interest payments give Russia even some more income.

When the Russian central banks intervenes to support the ruble, it buys rubles with its foreign currency reserve in order to prop up the price of rubles. These market interventions cost Mother Russia precious foreign currency and are very expensive for Mother Russia. It cannot get those dollars back.

If it does this if the dollar is, say, 70 rubles and buys dollar if the dollar is around 50 rubles, it gets the dollars back and makes a profit. This is what it has done.

Remember your own source saying: "The Reserve Fund had also been used recently (in May) to buy foreign currency in order to prevent the ruble from strengthening too much against the dollar (hindering the competitiveness of Russian exports)."? Look at http://www.xe.com/de/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=2Y where the rouble was in May 2015. And look where it was when the bank has supported the ruble at the end 2014 and beginning of 2015.

Given that the central bank knows that it has printed some rubles as well as the situation with the oil price, it will no longer support the ruble near 70/\$ but only near 90/\$. Similarly, I think they will buy dollars already near 60/\$, but this is private speculation, Russian sources have said to expect this only around 50/\$.

The fact remains; Russia's finance minister has warned Russia's reserve fund will be fully depleted this year.

Given that it has been used to buy dollar for 50 rubles, they could now sell these dollars for 75 rubles and have much more. But in another fond. Because this would not be from selling oil, but from selling dollars. Pure fond, but clearly not poor Russia.

 

[CptBork]

There's no reason to even think of relaxing sanctions until Crimea, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are also restored to their rightful owners, the massacres in Syria are halted, and Putin himself needs to step down. Europe has no urgent economic interests in Russia and no reason to reward it for any form of thuggery, and those thinking of breaking ranks to do so ought to be themselves sanctioned accordingly. Russia needs a good spanking now, or it will only escalate its bad behaviour in the future on more favourable terms.

 

[joepistole]

This was about "if the oil price falls for a factor x, then one can buy less by a factor of x for the income of selling oil". For small children as well as stupid adults, who have problems with understanding the meaning of such letters, it is easier to understand the meaning if instead of the general x one uses a particular example. This was the reason that, in a discussion with you, I have used the particular number x=2. You have nonetheless been unable to get the meaning of this "if then", but, sorry, this is your problem, not my.

Are you obfuscating, or are you really that dumb? Frankly, I think you are obfuscating. But I could well be wrong.

Look, let's keep this really simple for you, the price of oil is down, it's well below the price Mother Russia has forecast, and it's not likely to go higher given Iran is about to dump 2 or more million barrels a day onto the oil market.

So your insistence that oil prices will rise and save Mother Russia is just desperation. The fact is Mother Russia has consistently over estimated the price of oil. Russia has budgeted for 50 dollar per barrel oil and oil is selling at 30 dollars or less. That's a big problem for Mother Russia whither you will admit it or not.

Of course, Russia has developed several scenarios, as reasonable people do, and one of them was with 50 \$, which is reasonable if at the time one develops the scenarios (which is, if reasonable people do such things, not the 31. of December, but a few months before) the actual price is in this region.

And Mother Russia's "reasonable scenarios" have been consistently wrong.

In peaceful time, there is no reason for this, instead, trade is useful for above sides. And if one exports things like oil, one will also import something.

To produce everything itself becomes a necessity in wartime, already Cold War time. This was not Putin's plan, it was the West who has started all this in the Ukraine. So, now Russia really starts to care about this. Else, why producing things one can buy from the West much cheaper?

Producing enough food is important in such times, that's why Putin has used the agrarian sector for his countersanctions.

The unpleasant fact for you is that if Mother Russia could produce all the goods it imports, it would. But it cannot and that is why Mother Russia imports hundreds of billions of dollars in goods every year including, but not limited to, computers, food, cars, parts, medical goods and supplies, and pharmaceuticals.

That has nothing to do with war time or peace time. It has everything to do with Mother Russia’s inability to domestically produce those goods. If Mother Russia could produce the goods it imports, it could save its earnings and build its foreign currency reserves. Just because Mother Russia may have a dollar or a euro it doesn’t mean it needs to spend it.

In The one which I have commented that way was. And I would never spend even a single cent for supporting Western propaganda, even if I would be a millionaire.

Yeah, you have clearly and repeatedly demonstrated you have propaganda in everywhere. But that doesn’t make it so. As has been pointed out to you numerous times, you have a habit of summarily and without evidence of dismissing unpleasant realities as Western propaganda.

Contrary to your assertions, I have already said that in such a special situation selling some government property is also reasonable.

If all were well with Mother Russia as you have repeatedly asserted, Mother Russia wouldn’t need to sell off its most prized assets.

You think so? I don't think so.

Yes, you have a habit of ignoring facts in preference of fiction.

Yep, and I have explained that your explanation is stupid.

Good to know, you are math challenged….the fact is Russia has over 500 billion in foreign debt (state & private industry). It has about 300 billion in foreign currency debt. Mother Russia has more debt than it has cash to pay those debts. It’s kindergartner math. Now you may think kindergarten math is stupid, but that doesn’t make kindergarten math stupid.

Feel free to believe it is a big problem. I don't. And I have explained why.

Thank you for allowing me to believe facts. But given I don’t live in Mother Russia, I don’t need you permission. Whither you want to recognize the fact that Mother Russia faces serious economic problems, folks living in Mother Russia know better. The Russian government knows better. That’s why they are resorting to extraordinary measures. That’s why Russian workers are not getting paid.

I go with my rubles to the exchange and exchange. There is a free market for this. Not?
LOL, as if the central bank the only owner of dollar in Russia. I tell you a secret: Almost everybody in Russia owns some dollars. I tell you another one: If one company does not pay its debt, it is bankrupt and no longer interested in purchasing any goods at all, not even foreign. But that's a problem of this particular company. Not of Russian hospitals.

So do you keep a 100 million US Dollars stuffed in your mattress that you are willing to exchange for rubles when a Russian firm needs US Dollars? No you don’t. I suppose Putin could issue a proclamation making it illegal for individual Russians to hold foreign currencies. But even if he did, the foreign currency he would get wouldn’t be sufficient to meet the demands.

 

[joepistole]

No. I have not even searched, so I cannot even know if I would have been able to find. It is not interesting to search, because there will be, of course, companies near default, and this will be even more often in a recession, and one way to solve such problems is to pay wages later - recognizing that the workers know that if they insist to be paid now, the firm goes simply bankrupt and they will be out of work.
My claim was different, namely that, even given that I spend much time in the runet, I have not seen them, they are not really a serious problem. If you see a lot of them, fine, means you visit other parts of the runet. (Ok, this is just a joke, I know that all you use is Western propaganda, and that part of the internet is of course full of such problems.)
The "explanation" consisting of simply continuing a curve, which has, as its origin, a heavy oil price decrease.
You have to understand that this is not really a good idea. I explain you in a simple example: If the oil price goes down from 100 to 50 (factor 2), and the oil export remains the same, together with everything else, this gives a certain decrease in the trade balance. What would have to be the oil price if next year the same decrease in the trade balance will happen, because of lower oil prices? Answer: The oil price would have to do down to 0 (factor oo).
(In the hope that I do not have to explain during the next 10 posts that I have not claimed that last year the oil price was going down from 100\$ to 50\$.)
Which is simply nonsense. The foreign currency needs for buying imports are, if the trade balance is positive, completely covered by the exports. What remains is the debt to be paid. But Russia has, in comparison with most other countries, a quite low debt, and one can expect that all the balance of all the interest payments give Russia even some more income.
If it does this if the dollar is, say, 70 rubles and buys dollar if the dollar is around 50 rubles, it gets the dollars back and makes a profit. This is what it has done.
Remember your own source saying: "The Reserve Fund had also been used recently (in May) to buy foreign currency in order to prevent the ruble from strengthening too much against the dollar (hindering the competitiveness of Russian exports)."? Look at http://www.xe.com/de/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=2Y where the rouble was in May 2015. And look where it was when the bank has supported the ruble at the end 2014 and beginning of 2015.
Given that the central bank knows that it has printed some rubles as well as the situation with the oil price, it will no longer support the ruble near 70/\$ but only near 90/\$. Similarly, I think they will buy dollars already near 60/\$, but this is private speculation, Russian sources have said to expect this only around 50/\$.
Given that it has been used to buy dollar for 50 rubles, they could now sell these dollars for 75 rubles and have much more. But in another fond. Because this would not be from selling oil, but from selling dollars. Pure fond, but clearly not poor Russia.

That’s all basically nonsense and all of this material has been repeatedly explained to you ad nauseum. The very simple fact is Mother Russia is in serious economic trouble. You can continue to ignore it, and no doubt you will. But it Russia’s problems are not going away.

 

[Schmelzer]

So your insistence that oil prices will rise and save Mother Russia is just desperation.

No, they are just your fantasy. I have made no claim at all that they cannot fall down even more, down to say 10\$ or so. And I claim that Russia will survive even if the oil price goes down to zero. So that there is no need to "save" it.

The fact is Mother Russia has consistently over estimated the price of oil.

It is the normal way to make a budget based on the actual price at the time one makes the budget. With, additionally, good and bad variants if the price behaves differently. This is what Russia is doing. So, if the price goes seriously down, they have to switch to the worse variant. This is, of course, something one does not like, but a normal thing.

Your claim of a "consistent overestimation" you would have support with evidence about the normal budget during years with raising oil prices.

The unpleasant fact for you is that if Mother Russia could produce all the goods it imports, it would. But it cannot and that is why Mother Russia imports hundreds of billions of dollars in goods every year including, but not limited to, computers, food, cars, parts, medical goods and supplies, and pharmaceuticals.

The funny thing is that one of the greatest losers in the industrial sectors is the Russian car production. Most of the cars sold in Russia are produced in Russia.

Good to know, you are math challenged….the fact is Russia has over 500 billion in foreign debt (state & private industry). It has about 300 billion in foreign currency debt. Mother Russia has more debt than it has cash to pay those debts. It’s kindergartner math. Now you may think kindergarten math is stupid, but that doesn’t make kindergarten math stupid.

You obviously don't get the elementary point that one does not have to have reserves big enough to pay all the debt now to be able to pay all the debt when one is obliged too. It is the very point of taking a credit that one does not have these money actually, but expects income in the future which allows to pay back. And the worst credits - those where it was expected that one can extend the credit, and the only unknown was the future credit rate, and where this became impossible because of the sanctions - have already been paid back. And the debt has been reduced much more than the currency reserves. Contrary to you kindergarten ideas that this is impossible.

That’s why Russian workers are not getting paid.

Yes, the horrible fact that Russian people have not been paid in the average half a dollar.

So do you keep a 100 million US Dollars stuffed in your mattress that you are willing to exchange for rubles when a Russian firm needs US Dollars?

Not that much, of course. But if they offer enough, why not exchanging what I have?

I suppose Putin could issue a proclamation making it illegal for individual Russians to hold foreign currencies. But even if he did, the foreign currency he would get wouldn’t be sufficient to meet the demands.

I doubt Putin will do such stupid things. And your kindergarden fantasies about the demand are irrelevant. A common criterion for having sufficient foreign currency reserves is that they are sufficient for 3 months paying all the import. According to this criterion, Russia has much more than necessary.

 

[joepistole]

No, they are just your fantasy. I have made no claim at all that they cannot fall down even more, down to say 10\$ or so. And I claim that Russia will survive even if the oil price goes down to zero. So that there is no need to "save" it.

Well, not surprisingly you are being more than a little disingenuous. But yeah, you have said Mother Russia can survive virtually anything (e.g. my references to Monty Python's black knight example). But unfortunately for you and your fellow Russophiles, Mother Russia isn't immune to reality.

It is the normal way to make a budget based on the actual price at the time one makes the budget. With, additionally, good and bad variants if the price behaves differently. This is what Russia is doing. So, if the price goes seriously down, they have to switch to the worse variant. This is, of course, something one does not like, but a normal thing.

I gather you have never made a budget. That's not how budgets are made. Budgets are created based on expectations for the future, not on current prices. Why would people make budgets they know are unrealistic? Unrealistic budgets are self defeating, I guess that explains Mother Russia. And you don't have conditional budget variants...if X, Y or Z happens then our budget it AB. You don't have budgets that are conditional. You have one budget, which may be changed over time. But there is only one budget at any point in time. Institutions cannot operate effectively without a fixed budget.

Your claim of a "consistent overestimation" you would have support with evidence about the normal budget during years with raising oil prices.

Mother Russia has consistently over estimated the price of oil as has been repeatedly brought to your attention. It used 100 dollar oil last year and now it is using 50 oil and oil is selling for 30 dollars or less with the very real prospect of oil prices going even lower as Iran brings millions of more barrels to market every day.

The funny thing is that one of the greatest losers in the industrial sectors is the Russian car production. Most of the cars sold in Russia are produced in Russia.

Obviously, you don't understand industrial production either. It's more accurate to say, most cars sold in Mother Russia are assembled in Mother Russia. Auto parts are made elsewhere, in places like the US, China, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, etc. That's the reason why Mother Russia imports so many auto parts. And those auto manufactures are mostly foreign auto makers (e.g. Ford, GM, etc.).

You obviously don't get the elementary point that one does not have to have reserves big enough to pay all the debt now to be able to pay all the debt when one is obliged too. It is the very point of taking a credit that one does not have these money actually, but expects income in the future which allows to pay back. And the worst credits - those where it was expected that one can extend the credit, and the only unknown was the future credit rate, and where this became impossible because of the sanctions - have already been paid back. And the debt has been reduced much more than the currency reserves. Contrary to you kindergarten ideas that this is impossible.

Hey, you brought the issue up. I was just pointing out flaws in your argument. And actually, Russian borrowing (i.e. debt) has been rising. Russia's debt problem is getting worse, not better. The problem is Russia's foreign currency reserves are rapidly dwindling.

Yes, the horrible fact that Russian people have not been paid in the average half a dollar.

I'm not sure what you mean by that, but if you are saying it's terrible the Russian state isn't paying its bills and Russian workers are not getting paid and are essentially working for free, I'm happy you have finally shown some concern for your fellow Russians.

Not that much, of course. But if they offer enough, why not exchanging what I have?

You missed the point. Just because you and your fellow Russians hold a few dollars, it doesn't mean you individually or collectively have enough foreign currency to bail out Mother Russia's foreign currency problems. You don't.

I doubt Putin will do such stupid things. And your kindergarden fantasies about the demand are irrelevant. A common criterion for having sufficient foreign currency reserves is that they are sufficient for 3 months paying all the import. According to this criterion, Russia has much more than necessary.

Not surprisingly, that isn't true either. There is no magical formula for determining the correct level of foreign currency reserves. Countries like the US have very little in the way of currency reserves. Because the US currency is the world's reserve currency, the US has little need for foreign currency reserves. Other countries like China and Japan have vast foreign currency reserves. There are many factors affecting how much foreign currency reserves a country should have. And the fact is, Mother Russia is financing itself with a depleting resource. Russia's foreign currency reserves are being rapidly depleted. It's trade accounts are rapidly shrinking and Mother Russia's economy is in depression. It's economy is shrinking at 5% or more with each passing year. Russians aren't getting paid. As previously demonstrated, those are some cold hard and unfortunate facts for Mother Russia. That's why Putin is considering selling Russia's crown jewels and desperately seeking foreign currency.

 

[Edont Knoff]

The fact is Russia is a technology backwater and remains highly dependent upon the West for technology of any sort.

Do you have sources to show that russia is indeed dependent on the west for technology?

I agree that russis technology is usually a bit dated. But they are very creative in putting simple things to work, find solutions which do not require the latest and greatest, and still work.

Then what is "the west"? Does it include Europe? From what I hear french and german companies complain that their cooperations with russia have been hampered and want the restrictions gone again. To put european technology together with russian resources appears to be a very promising idea. In history there have been times of friendly relations between france and russia, also between germany and russia. They are not natural enemies. Putin gave signs that he wants to work togther with westem Europe.

France is not afraid of russia. Otherwise they'd not have sold a helicopter carrier to russia, one their most advanced developments in carried ships construction. One doesn't seel powerful weapons to a country which one is afraid of (the deal was stoped due to pressure from the USA. But I think both, France and Russia will try to finish the deal once they are free to do so).

Germany is also not afraid of Russia. Both sides saw it with gratitide that Merkel speaks russian when she meets Putin, and Putin spoke german on a visit. I think it is a sign of honour if the leading politicians use the language of the other country. And German compnaies want more cooperation with russia. Germany has the technology. Russis has the resources. Together, this is a winning combination.

East Europe is different. More afraid of russia, more suspicious and more reluctant. Easy to understand, given the history. But still, the current isolation of Russia is only happening due to outside pressure on the EU, and companies are waitng fo it to end, to pick up their cooperations with russia again.

The USA are no longer seen as the "good guys" in parts of western europe. Russia is no longer the "bad guy". Views and opinions have become diverse and complicated, and the option to cooperate with Russia looks good to many.

 

[joepistole]

Do you have sources to show that russia is indeed dependent on the west for technology?

I agree that russis technology is usually a bit dated. But they are very creative in putting simple things to work, find solutions which do not require the latest and greatest, and still work.

You seem to be contradicting yourself. First challenging the fact that Mother Russia isn't a technology backwater and then admitting to as much in your next paragraph. Can you name on major technology innovation in the last decade that can be attributed to Mother Russia? Can you name any leading edge Russian technology companies? You, can't. Because they don't exit. As you have agreed, Russian technology is "a bit dated". Russia does a fair job of copying Western technologies. But that doesn't mean it isn't a technology backwater.

Then what is "the west"? Does it include Europe? From what I hear french and german companies complain that their cooperations with russia have been hampered and want the restrictions gone again. To put european technology together with russian resources appears to be a very promising idea. In history there have been times of friendly relations between france and russia, also between germany and russia. They are not natural enemies. Putin gave signs that he wants to work togther with westem Europe.

Seriously....you don't know who the West is? The West consists of Western European countries and North America. And who are these French and German companies? The fact is, Germany, France and other European countries voluntarily signed on to sanctions against Mother Russia for her repeated unprovoked invasions and annexation of her neighbors lands.

Additionally, your overly rosy description of European - Russian relations is based upon a lot of cherry picking. It ignores much of history, including but not limited to WWII when Germany invaded Russia and the Napoleonic Wars in which France invaded Russia and the Great Northern War in which Sweden invaded Russia and the Winter War in which Russia (i.e. The Soviet Union) invaded Finland or the Cold War in which Russia (i.e. The Soviet Union) virtually annexed Eastern Europe under the guise of the Potsdam agreement and many other European-Russian conflicts.

France is not afraid of russia. Otherwise they'd not have sold a helicopter carrier to russia, one their most advanced developments in carried ships construction. One doesn't seel powerful weapons to a country which one is afraid of (the deal was stoped due to pressure from the USA. But I think both, France and Russia will try to finish the deal once they are free to do so).

Afraid, what does that mean? No one is afraid of Russia militarily or economically. Russia is insignificant militarily and economically. The only thing Russia has to fear, is a nuclear weapons arsenal and that arsenal is quickly becoming tactically irrelevant. Its nuclear delivery capabilities have been greatly compromised by Western technologies. Although, conceivably Russia could deliver a nuclear weapon through some sort of subterfuge. But it would be Mother Russia's last act. Russia wouldn't be able to survive a Western retaliation. Putin obviously doesn't care about the lives of his fellow Russians, but I don't think Putin is suicidal. Putin does value his tail above all others a tail he knows he would lose should he attack the West.

Further, France didn't sell a "helicopter carrier" to Russia as you have asserted. France cancelled the sale after Mother Russia invaded and annexed portions of Ukraine and after France had imposed sanctions on Russia for its military aggression against its neighbors. France sold those "helicopter carriers" to Egypt. So your assertion here is just blatantly wrong. If you know anything about international politics, and clearly you don't, you would know European countries have minds of their own. They make their own decisions and are at times at odds with the US - especially France (e.g. Freedom Fries).

http://www.cnn.com/2015/09/23/europe/france-egypt-warship-sale/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_fries

Germany is also not afraid of Russia. Both sides saw it with gratitide that Merkel speaks russian when she meets Putin, and Putin spoke german on a visit. I think it is a sign of honour if the leading politicians use the language of the other country. And German compnaies want more cooperation with russia. Germany has the technology. Russis has the resources. Together, this is a winning combination.

Well, unfortunately for you Merkel (i.e. Germany) doesn't share your beliefs in that regard. Both sides didn't see it that way. Germany didn't see it that way.

"Vladimir Putin has lost the plot over Ukraine, according to the German chancellor, Angela Merkel.

US reports said Merkel phoned Barack Obama on Sunday evening after speaking to the Russian president to press him to back down from his invasion of Ukraine and occupation of the Crimean peninsula.

"She was not sure he was in touch with reality, people briefed on the call said. 'In another world,' she said," the New York Times reported." The Guardian http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/mar/03/ukraine-vladimir-putin-angela-merkel-russian

And then there is the dog incident:

"During discussions about energy supplies at Putin's home in Sochi back in 2007, the Russian President called his black lab, Koni, into the room with Merkel. From The New Yorker (emphasis ours):

As the dog approached and sniffed her, Merkel froze, visibly frightened. She'd been bitten once, in 1995, and her fear of dogs couldn't have escaped Putin, who sat back and enjoyed the moment, legs spread wide. 'I'm sure it will behave itself,' he said. Merkel had the presence of mind to reply, in Russian, 'It doesn’t eat journalists, after all.' ...

Later, Merkel interpreted Putin's behavior. 'I understand why he has to do this — to prove he's a man,' she told a group of reporters. 'He's afraid of his own weakness. Russia has nothing, no successful politics or economy. All they have is this.'" http://www.businessinsider.com/merkel-on-putins-masculinity-2014-11

Clearly, your assertion with respect to German-Russian relations is wrong.

East Europe is different. More afraid of russia, more suspicious and more reluctant. Easy to understand, given the history. But still, the current isolation of Russia is only happening due to outside pressure on the EU, and companies are waitng fo it to end, to pick up their cooperations with russia again.

The USA are no longer seen as the "good guys" in parts of western europe. Russia is no longer the "bad guy". Views and opinions have become diverse and complicated, and the option to cooperate with Russia looks good to many.

And do you have any evidence of this? Certainly, there are companies in Western Europe who have invested heavily in Russia's oil wells and they don't want to lose their investments. And their are banks who don't want to lose the business of Russian oligarchs. But Western and now most Eastern European countries are democracies. Their governments are accountable to the people, not to the US and not to a few companies who invested unwisely in Mother Russia. And as oil prices continue to fall, and the situation in Russia continues to deteriorate, Russia becomes less and less attractive as an investment regardless of Western sanctions.

 

[Schmelzer]

I gather you have never made a budget. That's not how budgets are made. Budgets are created based on expectations for the future, not on current prices.

Yes, and that's why Russia always considers several scenarios. Because Russia knows that the oil price varies a lot. Much more than, in particular, the price of various oil products. That's why Russia has done a lot to shift from exporting raw oil to oil products.

Why would people make budgets they know are unrealistic?

It is in no way unrealistic to assume that the price remains the same over some period of time. This is, instead, the most reasonable hypothesis if no other information is available, also known as zero hypothesis. If you are that better in predicting oil prices, why don't you make a lot of money speculating, instead of working for cheap as a propaganda troll in some forum?

And you don't have conditional budget variants...if X, Y or Z happens then our budget it AB. You don't have budgets that are conditional. You have one budget, which may be changed over time. But there is only one budget at any point in time. Institutions cannot operate effectively without a fixed budget.

Reasonable people make plans, and have the ability to change their plans if something goes wrong. Of course, this is a big problem for big organizations like states. They have a tendency to follow established plans without caring much about reality. This is one of the advantage of a libertarian society - much less losses because plans are made on a much smaller level, thus, to adapt them is much easier.

It used 100 dollar oil last year

Source for this number?

Obviously, you don't understand industrial production either. It's more accurate to say, most cars sold in Mother Russia are assembled in Mother Russia. Auto parts are made elsewhere, in places like the US, China, Taiwan, Japan, Indonesia, etc. That's the reason why Mother Russia imports so many auto parts. And those auto manufactures are mostly foreign auto makers (e.g. Ford, GM, etc.).

In part yes, in part in Russia too. It is an established policy to support all those firms to use suppliers from Russia. So, yes, such things a large part of Russian import, but there are also a lot of Russian suppliers now. And they will try to increase their share, which is not impossible given that all imports became much more expensive in rubles. And, no, it does not matter if a car produced in Russia is named Ford.

And actually, Russian borrowing (i.e. debt) has been rising. Russia's debt problem is getting worse, not better. The problem is Russia's foreign currency reserves are rapidly dwindling.

The plot of the data, contradicting your claim, I had already given. But we can look at some details.
Here the data about the rapidly dwindling currency reserves: http://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/Default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_7d
Yes, there was a serious decrease 2014, but it ends in February 2015. At 06.02.2015 we have 374,7, at 13.02.2015 we have 368,3, and the last info is from 29.01.2016 where we have 371,3 bill.\$. And during the last month, they have been even increasing, at 01.01.2016 they have been only 368,0, and at 04.12.2015 only 364,4. Thus, even during a usually quite critical period (end of the year is often a date where debts have to be paid) they have even increased.

Debt raising may be of the government. Or the one up to the sanctions. http://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...nts-have-been-surprisingly-large-and-orderly/ gives a nice insight about corporate debts decreasing, of 2014, and nothing has changed with this, only the reduction was smaller, which is natural, given that the firms have learned to live with the sanctions, and the remaining debts are debts which can be easily extended. Like, in particular, the "about 1/3 of corporate debt [which] consists of debt cross-held within corporate groups (loans from foreign-registered parent companies to their subsidiaries and vice versa)". So, you can forget about this third of corporate debt. But, anyway:

All in, end-2014 external debt of Russian Government, banks and corporates stood at USD 548 billion, or just below 30% of GDP – a number that, under normal circumstances would make Russian economy one of the least indebted economies in the world. Accounting for cross-firm holdings of debt, actual Russian external debt is around USD 420 billion, or closer to 23% of GDP.

You missed the point. Just because you and your fellow Russians hold a few dollars, it doesn't mean you individually or collectively have enough foreign currency to bail out Mother Russia's foreign currency problems. You don't.

If I go individually to a state-owned exchange point and change my dollars into rubles, this increases the number of dollars which the state owns. Why is the state not allowed to use these dollars for whatever it likes?

Not surprisingly, that isn't true either. There is no magical formula for determining the correct level of foreign currency reserves.

Fine, some agreement. I have not said that this is a magical formula, or that it applies to the US who uses its superior military might to enforce the petrodollar on the whole world and in this way can afford to live with much less currency reserves. The formula was one of three different estimates I have seen, in an article which explained that according to all three criteria the situation has improved for Russia during the last year.

Another point: It is claimed (a Russian-speaking source, with reference to official statistics) that, even if it has descreased last year (as one expects during a recession) the average Russian real income today is yet 4% higher than 2011, when oil was around 87\$.

 

[Yazata]

Big developments in the last few days in Syria.

First, the Syrian army, assisted by its own Syrian air force and also Russian air force close air support and by an unknown number of Lebanese hezbollah and Iranian revolutionary guards, has made significant advances in the Aleppo region. An Iranian revolutionary guard general was killed in the ground fighting in the last couple of days.

In this map, the pinkish areas to the south and snaking to the east and northwest are the Syrian government, green are the non-ISIS rebels (many of them Islamic front) and the reddish to the northeast are ISIS. The Kurdish YPG, who generally cooperate with the Syrian government, are yellow, in the far northwest and in a small neighborhood just north of downtown. The most recent change has been the government linkup north of Aleppo cutting rebel supply lines to the north. The Aleppo rebels still have access to the Turkish border in the Hatay salient to the west, so they aren't cut off yet. The big news in the next few days and weeks might be the government pinching off the green finger curving around the eastern side of downtown Aleppo. This map suggests that they are advancing against it from the north. (The Kurdish neighborhood is on the other side.) That would leave the rebels in the eastern Aleppo neighborhoods in small surrounded pockets. There's concern that there may be a significant civilian population in those areas too. (There was before the war, it's hard to say how many remain.) The map suggests that the Syrian government forces are trying to encircle a big ISIS force to the east of Aleppo as well.

These recent gains put the Syrian government in the best position to retake Aleppo that it's been in since the civil war started. The fear is that ISIS might try to come charging in from the northeast if they sense any kind of power vacuum in the ruins of the city.

The second bit of recent news is that the UN peace conference scheduled to start in Geneva has fallen apart, largely because the rebels are angry about the recent government gains. The rebels began demanding both that the Russians cease air operations and that Assad agree to step down, as pre-conditions for their participation in the talks. That's not going to happen, so the UN postponed the talks.

 

[Schmelzer]

Yesterday's information about taking two towns was exaggerated, it appears that only one of the two towns, Mayer, is completely controlled now by the Syrian army, and even into this town the terrorists have returned during the night so that they had to be expelled again. But this has been successful, and the Syrian army seems to control now even the region North of Mayer up to the region which has been captured yesterday by the Kurds, thus, this town is already safe in this direction. In the other town or village, Kafr Naya, there is yet fighting.
http://www.almasdarnews.com/article...rategic-village-of-rityan-in-northern-aleppo/
Whatever, today another important village has been taken, Rityan, together with what is on the road between Rityan and Bashkoi, which was controlled by the Syrian army even before the offensive. So, the corridor widens.

ISIS also claims some small advances in Deir Ezzor, but these are only irrelevant farms before the serious defense lines - they have taken these points in the past too, and given them up later once the attack on the defense lines themself has failed. They have also started a counterattack near Al Siin, also without success - but as expected, they could not afford to tolerate the one-village-per-day scheme of the Syrian army and had to try to revert something. In twitter have been some rumors that the Tiger forces have, instead, made some progress toward the power plant, even reached its territory. To reach this, they would have to have taken yet another village on the road toward the power plant,

But there is more worth to be noted today: http://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-captures-strategic-town-of-itman-in-daraa/ describes a second important victory of the Syrian army in the South in Daraa, where the town Atman has been taken. This is one of three towns between the already liberated Sheikh Miskeen and the province capital Daraa. Given that the corridor between Daraa and Damascus was (and is yet) very thin, this is a quite important victory too. But actually I see on twitter that on the other side of the corridor, East of Daraa, another village has been taken, the last one on the road to the M5 highway. So, they obviously also want to gain access to the whole M5 highway. The southern end of this highway from the Jordanian border to Damask and Aleppo is controlled by the terrorists yet.

PS: Yazata, nice post, but actually I doubt that they aim to enclose the Eastern part of Aleppo completely. They have started it, but this was at the first day of the offensive, and may have simply been a deception. Moreover, I have seen an article about some probability that some of the Aleppo rebels may switch sides. So I think there are ongoing negotiations with these rebels, and until they end without result I would not expect a continuation.

 

[joepistole]

Yes, and that's why Russia always considers several scenarios. Because Russia knows that the oil price varies a lot. Much more than, in particular, the price of various oil products. That's why Russia has done a lot to shift from exporting raw oil to oil products.

It is in no way unrealistic to assume that the price remains the same over some period of time. This is, instead, the most reasonable hypothesis if no other information is available, also known as zero hypothesis. If you are that better in predicting oil prices, why don't you make a lot of money speculating, instead of working for cheap as a propaganda troll in some forum?

Reasonable people make plans, and have the ability to change their plans if something goes wrong. Of course, this is a big problem for big organizations like states. They have a tendency to follow established plans without caring much about reality. This is one of the advantage of a libertarian society - much less losses because plans are made on a much smaller level, thus, to adapt them is much easier.

Fine, Russia can consider a number of things in creating a budget. But contrary to your prior assertion, it shouldn't base its budget based on current oil prices when it knows it likely oil prices will plummet. The hole point of a budget is to tell people how much money they have to spend. Once they spend the money, they cannot go back and say, hey, I was just kidding. Either you have a budget or you don't. And what you are describing isn't a budget. It's flying by the seat of your pants.

Two, as previously noted, you know absolutely nothing about budgeting. A libertarian society doesn't affect budgeting processes. There are two kinds of budgets, top down budgets, where high level budgets are developed and passed down to every subordinate unit (i.e. "much smaller level") and bottom up budgets, where budgets are developed for each subordinate units and passed upward. That has absolutely nothing to do with libertarianism. Additionally, Russia has done very little to switch to oil products. The world doesn't want refined petroleum product from Russia, it wants raw oil.

Source for this number?

Sure: http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/28/news/economy/russia-oil-price-100-dollars-budget/

As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, Mother Russia has consistently used overly rosy oil price projections in its budgets.

In part yes, in part in Russia too. It is an established policy to support all those firms to use suppliers from Russia. So, yes, such things a large part of Russian import, but there are also a lot of Russian suppliers now. And they will try to increase their share, which is not impossible given that all imports became much more expensive in rubles. And, no, it does not matter if a car produced in Russia is named Ford.

Well here is the problem with that, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, payments to those foreign firms who supply Russia aren't made in rubles. It's made in euros, yen, or dollars. Because the Russian Ruble is an unstable currency. As you have been repeatedly told, the Russian central bank needs to provide that foreign currency. Further, it doesn't matter how many firms and countries supply Russia, the same principals apply. Unfortunately for Russia, foreign suppliers are not going to sell product to Russia at a ruble price when they know that ruble price will be worth a fraction of its value when they receive it. The world isn't as dumb as Mother Russia needs it to be.

The plot of the data, contradicting your claim, I had already given. But we can look at some details. Here the data about the rapidly dwindling currency reserves: http://www.cbr.ru/hd_base/Default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_7d
Yes, there was a serious decrease 2014, but it ends in February 2015. At 06.02.2015 we have 374,7, at 13.02.2015 we have 368,3, and the last info is from 29.01.2016 where we have 371,3 bill.\$. And during the last month, they have been even increasing, at 01.01.2016 they have been only 368,0, and at 04.12.2015 only 364,4. Thus, even during a usually quite critical period (end of the year is often a date where debts have to be paid) they have even increased.

Yeah, let's use some credible sources:

Debt raising may be of the government. Or the one up to the sanctions. http://davidstockmanscontracorner.c...nts-have-been-surprisingly-large-and-orderly/ gives a nice insight about corporate debts decreasing, of 2014, and nothing has changed with this, only the reduction was smaller, which is natural, given that the firms have learned to live with the sanctions, and the remaining debts are debts which can be easily extended. Like, in particular, the "about 1/3 of corporate debt [which] consists of debt cross-held within corporate groups (loans from foreign-registered parent companies to their subsidiaries and vice versa)". So, you can forget about this third of corporate debt. But, anyway:

If I go individually to a state-owned exchange point and change my dollars into rubles, this increases the number of dollars which the state owns. Why is the state not allowed to use these dollars for whatever it likes?

Russian debt is rising, and as previously pointed out, the foreign currency held by Russians in their mattresses isn't sufficient to cover Mother Russia's foreign currency needs, even if they wanted to surrender it to the state.

Fine, some agreement. I have not said that this is a magical formula, or that it applies to the US who uses its superior military might to enforce the petrodollar on the whole world and in this way can afford to live with much less currency reserves. The formula was one of three different estimates I have seen, in an article which explained that according to all three criteria the situation has improved for Russia during the last year.

Except, conditions have not improved for Mother Russia. That's why Russian debt retains its junk status rating. And the US doesn't use it's superior military might to enforce the petrodollar. It takes more than "petrocurrency" to become a world reserve currency.

Another point: It is claimed (a Russian-speaking source, with reference to official statistics) that, even if it has descreased last year (as one expects during a recession) the average Russian real income today is yet 4% higher than 2011, when oil was around 87\$.

Well, that's not saying much, because Mother Russia has double digit inflation, ranging between 10 - 18 percent. So if Russian wages go up 4 percent and inflation goes up 10 percent as is the case, that means Russians have lost 6 percent of their income (i.e. purchasing power).

 

[joepistole]

The US is building a military base inside Syria.

http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-building-military-airbase-in-northeastern-syria/5493746

 

[Schmelzer]

But contrary to your prior assertion, it shouldn't base its budget based on current oil prices when it knows it likely oil prices will plummet.

As usual, I have not asserted that Russia should base its budget on current oil prices when it knows such things. I say it is reasonable to base it on current oil prices if no other information is available.

Additionally, Russia has done very little to switch to oil products. The world doesn't want refined petroleum product from Russia, it wants raw oil.

May be some people in the world do not want refined petroleum. But they are irrelevant. Once Russia makes refined petroleum, it can sell it for the actual market prices. Which are higher and less volatile.

Sure: http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/28/news/economy/russia-oil-price-100-dollars-budget/

So, the price was even lower than the actual price four months ago. Given that making such a budget needs a lot of time, not that strange. Of course, one would prefer something faster ... But, again, this is one of the disadvantages of large states.

Well here is the problem with that, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, payments to those foreign firms who supply Russia aren't made in rubles. It's made in euros, yen, or dollars. Because the Russian Ruble is an unstable currency.

It does not change the funny fact that some part of the debt is denominated in rubles - and this part has been heavily decreased thanks to the falling ruble.

As you have been repeatedly told, the Russian central bank needs to provide that foreign currency. Further, it doesn't matter how many firms and countries supply Russia, the same principals apply. Unfortunately for Russia, foreign suppliers are not going to sell product to Russia at a ruble price when they know that ruble price will be worth a fraction of its value when they receive it. The world isn't as dumb as Mother Russia needs it to be.

Sometimes, not always. A lot of firms export something (positive trade balance), thus, also have own income in dollars, but have to pay their workers and for local commodities in rubles. At least in part. So, there are firms who have dollars and need rubles. These firms can exchange with firms who have rubles but have to pay debt in dollars.

Russian debt is rising, and as previously pointed out, the foreign currency held by Russians in their mattresses isn't sufficient to cover Mother Russia's foreign currency needs, even if they wanted to surrender it to the state.

The picture of the reserves tells that they have been quite constant except 2014, when the Cold War with the sanctions started and some firms, which have expected to continue their debts where unable to do this and had to return them immediately. This is such an unexpected event when such reserves are useful, and they have been used.

Well, that's not saying much, because Mother Russia has double digit inflation, ranging between 10 - 18 percent. So if Russian wages go up 4 percent and inflation goes up 10 percent as is the case, that means Russians have lost 6 percent of their income (i.e. purchasing power).

This was about real income, with correction for inflation.

The US is building a military base inside Syria.
http://www.globalresearch.ca/us-building-military-airbase-in-northeastern-syria/5493746

Thanks about an example where the US violates international law.

 

[Schmelzer]

An interesting article from some hardcore NATO guy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/05/obamas-disastrous-betrayal-of-the-syrian-rebels/
Interesting because, different from joepistole, he at least knows what he is talking about. Of course, not without usual hate propaganda like

Tens of thousands of Aleppo residents are already fleeing toward Kilis, the Turkish town that sits across the border from Azaz. The humanitarian crisis, lest anyone still had any doubt, is a deliberate regime and Russian strategy to clear important areas of problematic residents — while paralyzing rebels, neighboring countries, Western states, and the United Nations.

Aleppo residents? Hardly, to reach Azaz they now would have to go through Assad-controlled territory. The residents in the stripe around Azaz which has been cut off from the other rebel-help parts are mainly Kurds, and they will be happy because they have a good chance that this region comes under Kurdish control now. So, those who run away in this part are mainly rebels themself.

But outside the propaganda mode, he understands some interesting things, like

Moscow also courted Syria’s Kurds, who found a new partner to play off the United States in their complex relations with Washington.

Indeed. He also presents some inside knowledge about the Turkish games:

The prospect of further Kurdish expansion has already alarmed Turkey. Over the summer, Ankara was hoping to establish a safe zone in this very area. It pressured Jabhat al-Nusra to withdraw and anointed its allies in Syria, including the prominent Islamist group Ahrar al-Sham, as its enforcers.

This game may have had some partial success, but now it hits back:

One perverse consequence of cutting the Azaz corridor is that it plays into the hands of the al Qaeda-affiliate Jabhat Al-Nusra, since weapons supplies from Turkey would have to go through Idlib, where the jihadist movement is powerful.

Not that Al Nusra (which is Al Qaida in Syria) is much more fundamentalist than Ahrar al Sham, the only difference between them is that the West has a harder job to sell "Al Qaida in Syria" to the sheeple as "moderate". But that the cutting of the Azaz corridor is a major hit against Turkey is obvious and well-known:

... the regime’s advances could allow the Kurdish-dominated, American-favored Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) to conquer the area currently held by the Free Syrian Army and Islamist militias between the Turkish border and the new regime front line north of the Shiite towns of Nubl and Zahra. This would pit the SDF against IS on two fronts: from the west, if the Kurds of Afrin canton seize Tal Rifaat, Azaz and surrounding areas, and from the east, where the YPG is toying with the idea of crossing the Euphrates River. An IS defeat there would seal the border with Turkey, meeting an important American objective.

(He seems to have missed that the Kurds have already crossed the Euphrat river, this was the point of taking the Tishrin dam, but so what.) Yes, an American objective, a Russian as well, but the nightmare of Erdogan. I think, Erdogan has already understood that it was a really bad idea to shoot a Russian airplane.

Here some more points where I have to agree:

Early on, the rebels mounted a vigorous resistance, but the much-touted increase in anti-tank weaponry could only delay their losses as their weapons storages, command posts and fall-back positions were being pounded.

This week, Russian airpower allowed Assad and his allied paramilitary forces to finally cut off the narrow, rebel-held “Azaz corridor” that links the Turkish border to the city of Aleppo. The city’s full encirclement is now a distinct possibility, with regime troops and Shiite fighters moving from the south, the west, and the north. Should the rebel-held parts of the city ultimately fall, it will be a dramatic victory for Assad and the greatest setback to the rebellion since the start of the uprising in 2011.

2016 is shaping up as the year during which Assad will lock in significant political and military gains.

 

[joepistole]

An interesting article from some hardcore NATO guy: https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/05/obamas-disastrous-betrayal-of-the-syrian-rebels/

Were you not the guy who said "pay sites" don't count? Further, FP has a very distinct right wing bent, so it isn't surprising to see them be critical of Obama. It doesn't mean they are right.

Interesting because, different from joepistole, he at least knows what he is talking about. Of course, not without usual hate propaganda like

Aleppo residents? Hardly, to reach Azaz they now would have to go through Assad-controlled territory. The residents in the stripe around Azaz which has been cut off from the other rebel-help parts are mainly Kurds, and they will be happy because they have a good chance that this region comes under Kurdish control now. So, those who run away in this part are mainly rebels themself.

But outside the propaganda mode, he understands some interesting things, like

Indeed. He also presents some inside knowledge about the Turkish games:

This game may have had some partial success, but now it hits back:

Not that Al Nusra (which is Al Qaida in Syria) is much more fundamentalist than Ahrar al Sham, the only difference between them is that the West has a harder job to sell "Al Qaida in Syria" to the sheeple as "moderate". But that the cutting of the Azaz corridor is a major hit against Turkey is obvious and well-known:

(He seems to have missed that the Kurds have already crossed the Euphrat river, this was the point of taking the Tishrin dam, but so what.) Yes, an American objective, a Russian as well, but the nightmare of Erdogan. I think, Erdogan has already understood that it was a really bad idea to shoot a Russian airplane.

Here some more points where I have to agree:

How about surprising me once and use credible sources rather than the Putin's propaganda?

 

[joepistole]

As usual, I have not asserted that Russia should base its budget on current oil prices when it knows such things. I say it is reasonable to base it on current oil prices if no other information is available.

Oh, I suggest you go back and read your previous posts. You are not being honest comrade. Other information is always available. The fact is your Mother Russia has consistently and dramatically grossly over estimated the price of oil in its budgeting process by a factor of 100 percent. If past is prologue, based upon Russia's current budget, oil should sell at about 25 dollars per barrel this year rather than the 50 dollar per barrel Russia has used in its 2016 budget.

May be some people in the world do not want refined petroleum. But they are irrelevant. Once Russia makes refined petroleum, it can sell it for the actual market prices. Which are higher and less volatile.

As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, you assumption that refined petroleum products are somehow less volatile (i.e. crashing) is deeply flawed. The value of refined petroleum products have also fallen in line with oil pricing. Additionally, Mother Russia doesn't have the capability to significantly increase its refining abilities.

So, the price was even lower than the actual price four months ago. Given that making such a budget needs a lot of time, not that strange. Of course, one would prefer something faster ... But, again, this is one of the disadvantages of large states.

?????

That makes absolutely no sense.

It does not change the funny fact that some part of the debt is denominated in rubles - and this part has been heavily decreased thanks to the falling ruble.

LOL...we are talking foreign debt here. And the unfortunate fact for you is Mother Russia is in dire straights. Mother Russia isn't selling its most valuable assets because it is flush with foreign currency. Per previously referenced material, it isn't. Russia's foreign currency reserves have declined dramatically. That's why Mother Russia is desperately attempting to find foreign currency.

Sometimes, not always. A lot of firms export something (positive trade balance), thus, also have own income in dollars, but have to pay their workers and for local commodities in rubles. At least in part. So, there are firms who have dollars and need rubles. These firms can exchange with firms who have rubles but have to pay debt in dollars.

If that were so comrade, Mother Russia would not be considering selling state assets to raise foreign currency.

The picture of the reserves tells that they have been quite constant except 2014, when the Cold War with the sanctions started and some firms, which have expected to continue their debts where unable to do this and had to return them immediately. This is such an unexpected event when such reserves are useful, and they have been used.

Per the previously referenced material, Russia's foreign currency reserves have declined dramatically. Russia is attempting to boost its foreign currency reserves by borrowing them and paying extraordinarily high interest rates in order to do so. Just because you don't like why it is happening, it doesn't mean it isn't happening nor does it dampen the economic effects on Mother Russia. Putin screwed up. As much as that pains you, it really is that simple.

This was about real income, with correction for inflation.

No it wasn't. If times were good for Mother Russia, people wouldn't be working for free. Russians would be getting paychecks and clearly many Russians, including state workers, are not getting paid and is reminiscent of "Yeltsin times".

Thanks about an example where the US violates international law.

LOL....except it isn't a violation of international law. As has been repeatedly brought to your attention, the UN Security Council on a number of occasions has unanimously authorized these actions in Syria. http://www.theguardian.com/world/20...able-member-states-to-join-fight-against-isis