Baumgarten,
What was your point of the Moore quote? I did say “near term”. You and he appear to be agreeing with me.
There is such a thing as "fast enough" - personal computers haven't changed much in the last year or so. There's currently no sufficient economic incentive for 4+ GHz personal computers, or massively parallel home machines.
PC’s are not driving computer maker plans. PC’s are a relatively new phenomenon, in essence they have come and gone and the major computer makers are returning to normal work, i.e. the business enterprise which is demanding more and more computing power. The PC is rapidly becoming just a connection to the massively expanding internet where the real compute power is held. But the BI (Business Intelligence) market is huge and only now are we seeing businesses pick up the massive systems needed. While your perspective might be the PC the real driving forces are elsewhere.
What is "human-level" intelligence? What are the different levels of intelligence? How do we measure it? What do you mean by intelligence, anyway; just the ability to calculate?
I’d imagine you can tell the difference between human intelligence and a dog’s intelligence, right, without too much trouble? Feel free to develop some math to quantify it, but the gross differences should seem very clear to most people.
There are certain aspects of quantum effects that are thought by some to allow us definite advantages over artificial intelligence, such as the ability to reach valid conclusions through non-computable means. It is far from a red herring.
And those working in AI disagree. History is littered with perceived experts who claimed key achievements were impossible only to be shown completely wrong by the technologists. I don’t see any practical obstacle yet that prevents us from developing AI software and hardware. At this point it appears to be purely an engineering task, with inevitable design issues to be resolved.
What makes you think that a biological lifeform is incapable of providing an open-ended lifespan?
I don’t. I’m a strong supporter of anti-aging research and I will use cryogenic services if I’m unlucky enough to die. I simply see that a biological future is far too restrictive and fragile and that there will be far better alternatives.
In evolution, species become more relevant with age.
They do? Don’t think you have a clear idea what you meant by that.
Even if it can think faster than the average human, a species of intelligent machines would have a lot to prove.
For example? And by faster I mean 10 times, 100 times, and more. I don’t think you quite comprehend what we mean by super-intelligence.
And we're the ones with the weapons and our fingers on the ON/OFF switch.
LOL. Once the algorithms are out, that’s it; you will not be able to put them back. There will not be a single target. And worse, you will have to fight the many people like me who want and are making it happen.