The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

It seems to have mattered before the New Deal. Then there was a fight between Roosevelt and the Supreme Court, with initially a lot of decisions against the federal New Deal legislation, but, then, 1937 has reached what he wanted, and all the decisions were in favor of the New Deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937 Impressive time list below.

But the New Deal was, essentially, the establishment of a Big Central State.

If you had read your Wiki article, you should know that the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill which would have changed the way judges are appointed and created 1 new Supreme Court Justice and it wasn't untoward nor was it in any way unconstitutional and it failed. Congress didn't pass the bill, so the judicial appointment process remained unchanged...oops. :)

Finally, a constitution which allows a PATRIOT Act is not really restricting anything.

Hmm...and why is that exactly? Do you even know what the Patriot Act was? Just what provisions of the Patriot Act do you so abhorrent? Do you know what the US Constitution is or what is contained within the US Constitution? Obviously you don't. Because if you did, you wouldn't make such a blatantly ignorant statement unless of course you are deliberately lying. :)

Unlike in your beloved Mother Russia the American governing documents aren't toilet paper. They are respected. They are debated and discussed. Due process of law means something and is highly valued even when it isn't convenient to do so. That's one reason why, unlike in your beloved Mother Russia, dissidents in the US are not executed, jailed, and stripped of their personal wealth in the US for dissenting. That's one reason why Russian oligarchs like to stash their wealth in Western countries like the US.
 
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If you had read your Wiki article, you should know that the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill which would have changed the way judges are appointed and created 1 new Supreme Court Justice and it wasn't untoward nor was it in any way unconstitutional and it failed. Congress didn't pass the bill, so the judicial appointment process remained unchanged...oops. :)
The point being? As if I would care about this particular bill. What matters is the following: "Roosevelt ultimately prevailed in establishing a majority on the court friendly to his New Deal legislation" and the results of this described in the timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937#Timeline

Hmm...and why is that exactly?
If you see no problem between the constitution and the PATRIOT act, feel free to believe that it is constitutional. I couldn't care less.

http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html
 
It seems to have mattered before the New Deal. Then there was a fight between Roosevelt and the Supreme Court, with initially a lot of decisions against the federal New Deal legislation, but, then, 1937 has reached what he wanted, and all the decisions were in favor of the New Deal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937 Impressive time list below.

But the New Deal was, essentially, the establishment of a Big Central State.

Finally, a constitution which allows a PATRIOT Act is not really restricting anything.
The New Deal was for the people of the US. Bad mouthing the US is warranted but not from some crank Russian.
 
His politics is as useless as his crank ether theory. He's clearly a bitter crank intellect. That's what happens when you've been ignored by your peers for the last nineteen years when you think you're brilliant. When TR and Churchill were leading the world against Nazism the Russians had Stalin. Pretty much in the class with Hitler.
 
The point being?

As if it wasn't obvious, your argument doesn't hold water. You raised the issue, do you not remember? The unpleasant fact for you is neither of the two examples you raised disprove the fact that the US is a country of laws and the US Constitution is the basis for all US law.

As if I would care about this particular bill. What matters is the following: "Roosevelt ultimately prevailed in establishing a majority on the court friendly to his New Deal legislation" and the results of this described in the timeline https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judicial_Procedures_Reform_Bill_of_1937#Timeline

Yes, why would you care about this particular bill, you referenced it...oops. :) What matters is that bill was legal, it was constitutional, and it failed to pass congress. Just because the Supreme Court rules in favor of the president, it doesn't make it illegal. Further, the Supreme Court didn't reverse previous rulings related to the New Deal.

FDR eventually was able to appoint, per the US Constitution, a new Supreme Court justice when a conservative justice retired. Another justice began issuing more liberal decisions whereas before he was swing vote on the court. As a swing vote he previously voted for or against the conservative wing of the court. Later in his career he began consistently issuing liberal opinions. Those two changes on the court made the court liberal wing of the court more powerful and more in line with FDR's views. It was all constitutional. What matters is your argument doesn't hold water. For someone how knows so much about the US, you no so very little about the US or is it just a case of dishonesty?

If you see no problem between the constitution and the PATRIOT act, feel free to believe that it is constitutional. I couldn't care less.

What I feel about the Patriot Act doesn't matter. What matters is its constitutionality and your ability to show that it is unpatriotic. You raised it as an issue. The Patriot Act isn't proof the US doesn't honor and obey its constitution. That's the unfortunate fact for you.

This gets back to your chronic inability to back up your assertions with evidence.
 
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As if it wasn't obvious, your argument doesn't hold water.
But this had nothing to do with my argument.
Yes, why would you care about this particular bill, you referenced it...oops. :)
No. I referenced a wiki site about this bill, because it contained information about the point I have made: Roosevelt has, with political means, got control over the Supreme Court, and after this all his laws were accepted as constitutional. Before, many of them have been rejected as unconstitutional. A nice example, which shows that the Supreme Court is a political court, controlled by politicians, and in no way a neutral, unbiased court.
FDR eventually was able to appoint, per the US Constitution, a new Supreme Court justice when a conservative justice retired.
Fine. And if I have the right to appoint the judge who evaluates my behavior, I will never violate a law - the court will not find such a violation.
This gets back to your chronic inability to back up your assertions with evidence.
Of course, I was only able to present a link to a (probably Russian state owned, who knows?) webpage http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html which has been, of course, ignored.
 
But this had nothing to do with my argument.

If that is the case, then why did you raise the issue?

No. I referenced a wiki site about this bill, because it contained information about the point I have made: Roosevelt has, with political means, got control over the Supreme Court, and after this all his laws were accepted as constitutional. Before, many of them have been rejected as unconstitutional. A nice example, which shows that the Supreme Court is a political court, controlled by politicians, and in no way a neutral, unbiased court.

Well, here is the thing, Roosevelt didn't control the US Supreme Court. This isn't Mother Russia comrade. As previously posted, Roosevelt wanted to change the way justices were appointed to the courts as evidenced by the bill you referenced. But as previously pointed out, his effort failed, because congress refused to make the changes Roosevelt wanted. That get's back to the importance of the US Constitution and how its used. It's that separation of powers thing which doesn't exist in Mother Russia.

In the US federal justices are appointed to serve for life. Once appointed to the office, they are not dependent upon any other branch or any other person for their economic well-being. The best Roosevelt could have done is to get judges on the courts whose beliefs were more in line with his policies and views. But unlike Mother Russia, Roosevelt could not have controlled how the judges ruled. That's a very big difference between the US and Mother Russia.

Fine. And if I have the right to appoint the judge who evaluates my behavior, I will never violate a law - the court will not find such a violation.

Well, that's more than a little naive at best. First, there is this thing called confirmation. A federal judge cannot simply be appointed to a judgeship. They must also be confirmed by the senate, and once confirmed they serve for life and can only be removed from office through impeachment. So once appointed and confirmed a US justice has no allegiance other than to the country. While a candidate for a judgeship may be subject to undue influence, once confirmed by the senate, the judge is free from political retribution and can issue opinions and rulings free from fear of political retribution. So unlike Mother Russia, in the US federal judges are not controlled by the president. They are independent agents.

Additionally, in the US system, it is the congress who judges the president, not the court system. If the president violates the law, it is the duty of congress to indict him and try him. The US Supreme court system only interprets the legality and meaning of US law. It doesn't determine the guilt or innocence of a sitting US president. Roosevelt didn't like how certain members of the US Supreme Court interpreted the US Constitution and he isn't alone in that circumstance. Many presidents have not liked how the US Supreme Court has interpreted the law. And sometimes the Supreme Court has issued some pretty cockamamie decisions (e.g. Dred Scott v Sanford). But even so, unlike Mother Russia, the US is a country where rule of law matters.

Of course, I was only able to present a link to a (probably Russian state owned, who knows?) webpage http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html which has been, of course, ignored.

And of course your link was totally irrelevant. Just because some group doesn't like something, it doesn't mean there views are rational, correct, or in any way justified. If someone wishes to challenge the constitutionality of a law, there is a process for that in the American system. That's why the US Supreme Court exists. That gets back to this due process of law thingy which you seem to have a great deal of difficulty understanding. But given your history and support of the Soviet Union and the Russian Federation which followed, I guess I can understand your difficulty.
 
Well, here is the thing, Roosevelt didn't control the US Supreme Court. This isn't Mother Russia comrade.
Looking at the results, the final decisions of the court. he has initially not controlled, but later controlled. This is what matters.
In the US federal justices are appointed to serve for life. Once appointed to the office, they are not dependent upon any other branch or any other person for their economic well-being.
They must also be confirmed by the senate, and once confirmed they serve for life and can only be removed from office through impeachment. ...So unlike Mother Russia, in the US federal judges are not controlled by the president. They are independent agents.
That is nice, and makes them more independent once they have the job. But they have to be appointed. Who appoints them? Politicians. From the government. Thus, from one of two big factions of the US power party. So, they may disagree in questions where there is disagreement between the two. But, once they all are appointed by these two parties, they will agree on everything where above parties agree. And they agree, essentially, on more power to Washington, once they all are in Washington, and they all want power for themself.

Just for information, the constitutional court of RF is based on similar principles. The judge has to be accepted by the Council of the Federation, and once he is accepted by the majority with secret ballot, he is appointed up to age 70. So, your "unlike Mother Russia" only proves that you don't know RF. http://www.ksrf.ru/ru/Info/LegalBases/FCL/Pages/Chapter1.aspx
And of course your link was totally irrelevant.
Of course, nobody expects a different reaction from your side. It is well-known that you don't accept anything. This makes your opinion irrelevant.
 
Looking at the results, the final decisions of the court. he has initially not controlled, but later controlled. This is what matters.

Except as previously pointed out to you, Roosevelt never controlled the US Supreme Court, before or after the tried to change the way justices were appointed to the federal courts. Unfortunately for you, facts do matter.

That is nice, and makes them more independent once they have the job. But they have to be appointed. Who appoints them? Politicians. From the government. Thus, from one of two big factions of the US power party. So, they may disagree in questions where there is disagreement between the two. But, once they all are appointed by these two parties, they will agree on everything where above parties agree. And they agree, essentially, on more power to Washington, once they all are in Washington, and they all want power for themself.

Well, except as previously pointed out, the president appoints them and the senate confirms them. It's an open process. The candidates are scrutinized by both parties, the free press, and interviewed in public. There is nothing secret about the process. It's all in the open. If the public objects and if those politicians vote against the will of the people, those politicians will likely lose their jobs. I realized this notion of separation of powers is difficult for you, but in the US it is a reality. The reason Roosevelt's bill failed is because even though Roosevelt was a popular president, the American people didn't support his request to change how judges are appointed.

And the fact is justices often don't agree with both parties. Judges appointed by conservatives sometimes vote as liberals after appointment to the court and sometimes judges appointed by liberals sometimes vote as conservatives. Sometimes liberal justices vote as conservative, and sometimes conservative justices vote as liberal. So your assertion is debunked by history.

Just for information, the constitutional court of RF is based on similar principles. The judge has to be accepted by the Council of the Federation, and once he is accepted by the majority with secret ballot, he is appointed up to age 70. So, your "unlike Mother Russia" only proves that you don't know RF. http://www.ksrf.ru/ru/Info/LegalBases/FCL/Pages/Chapter1.aspx

I am well aware of that fact. But as I have been saying, the Russian Federation doesn't follow its constitution. It isn't a country were the rule of law holds. In Mother Russia, the reality is the law is whatever Putin says it is. Russia doesn't have a history of rule of law. Russia has never had rule of law. Russia has a long history of rule by individuals.

Of course, nobody expects a different reaction from your side. It is well-known that you don't accept anything. This makes your opinion irrelevant.

Oh, well here is the thing, just because someone somewhere objects to something and makes a claim of unconstitutionality, it doesn't mean it is unconstitutional. There are people who believe slavery is constitutional even though it is specifically specified as illegal in the US Constitution.

The US has a process for determining the constitutionality of any and all issues. That's part of the due process of law thingy. Now people may not be happy with the decisions of the US Supreme court, I'm certainly one of them. But, we are a nation were due process of law means something. It means we play by the rules even when we disagree with them. That isn't how you beloved Mother Russia operates. In Mother Russia the written law is virtually meaningless. It's whatever Putin says it is.
 
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Except as previously pointed out to you, Roosevelt never controlled the US Supreme Court, before or after the tried to change the way justices were appointed to the federal courts. Unfortunately for you, facts do matter.
What matters is that Roosevelt has reached what he wanted - Supreme Court approval for the New Deal. That he has reached this result, was shown by the time table in my reference.
But as I have been saying, the Russian Federation doesn't follow its constitution.
Which you claim without evidence. I have made the symmetric claim, and given some evidence.

Given that I also claim that the Supreme Court consist of people chosen to support what is shared by above parties, namely the wish for a big central state, so that they will not defend the constitution against the Big Central State, it is clear that this evidence cannot be a decision of the Supreme Court, but is necessarily restricted to the opinion of the people, who see contradictions between some actual laws and the constitution.

And to judge if the contradictions mentioned in http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html are really contradictions or not everybody has to evaluate himself. Except you, of course, because you trust the judges completely, once all the politicians in power have chosen them.
 
Why things are worse than most think. Why low oil prices are a big economic worry, sending stocks lower, not a blessing:
https://us-mg5.mail.yahoo.com/neo/launch?.rand=2nknl4autmjv7#9031278962 said:
Over the last four to five years, U.S. oil and gas companies have borrowed around $500 billion to fund their operations. They were happy to pay 6%, 7%, even 10% interest rates because, with oil at $100 a barrel, they were making boatloads of money. And the more money they borrowed, the faster they could ramp up production and make even more money.

It seemed like a match made in heaven: Insurance companies, pension funds, and money-market funds need higher yields, while oil and gas companies need money for investment and have no problem paying it back. But just like with the housing bubble, investors and borrowers made one massive assumption that didn't seem unreasonable at all. The assumption was that prices couldn't fall. With housing, prices hadn't fallen more than a few percent in decades. And with oil, well, if anything, prices would rise.* Who'd want to see oil prices get cut in half?

Yeah, well, thanks a lot, Saudi Arabia.

Now that oil has plunged to around $35, investors are worried that some U.S. oil companies may have a hard time paying their bonds off. And the prices for some of these high-yield bonds have been cut nearly in half.
* as Futilitist strongly predicted in his first posts here, a couple of years ago, due to the fact that new oil sources were much more expensive sources.

Actually from their peak of $140 per barrel, the current $35 per barrel is exactly only 25% of the peak. As is well known if you owe the bank $500 and can't pay it you are in big trouble, but if the banks are owed 500 billion and can't collect it, the banks (and economic system) are in big trouble.
 
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Why things are worse than most think. Why low oil prices are a big economic worry, sending stocks lower, not a blessing:* as Futilitist strongly predicted in his first posts here, a couple of years ago, due to the fact that new oil sources were much more expensive sources.

Except, that isn't the "problem" and that isn't the issue. The issues are a supply glut and too much oil company debt. It isn't because new oil sources are more expensive, because in large part they are not. Oil prices are low because too much oil is being produced. What has happened is many oil companies, especially smaller oil companies, have borrowed heavily in anticipation of high oil prices remaining intact. Now those companies are stuck between a rock and a hard place, because oil prices have fallen due to increased global oil production and OPEC's failure to lower global production and some oil companies will most likely be driven into default (e.g. Magnum Hunter).

Last Friday, a large high risk debt mutual fund limited withdrawals because it was being forced to sell its high risk debt holdings and it was destroying high risk debt pricing. That was followed by a hedge fund which took similar measures. The most disturbing to investors was the mutual fund. One of the advantages of mutual funds is liquidity.

Now let's look at the impact, who will be hurt? First, oil companies, some of them will be driven into default. Some will be bought out, others will go into receivership and be reorganized and will eventually come out healthier companies. If you own their debt or their stock, you are screwed. Stock holders will likely lose their entire investment. Debt holders will likely lose something less, but will still take some heavy losses.

The concern here is banking. How much of that oil company debt is held by banks? And I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question yet. And uncertainty isn't good for stocks. So this week will likely be a rocky road for stockholders, especially when you consider the Fed has pretty much all but committed to a rate increase this year and some would probably say they have committed to a rate increase.

I would say given the Fed's statements, the Fed seems to be focused mostly on the US unemployment rate. The Fed's probably too focused on the US unemployment rate. But if the Fed raises interest rates this week as expected and begins a tightening cycle, I think, based on current economic data, it will be a very slow tightening cycle. I'm guessing a 100 basis points per year (i.e. 1% per year) for the next three years. So, any rate increases will likely be slow and small. As I have previously stated, if the Fed raises rates this year, I think it is premature. But a quarter rate rate increase isn't the end of the world either. Believe it or not, there was a time when Fed rate increases were rather commonplace. :) Now we act as if it were the end of the world. We have not had one for nearly a decade. The Fed only increases debt when it thinks the economy is growing too fast or may grow to fast.

Right now the core inflation rate is 1.2 percent. The core rate is a good predictor of future inflation rate one year out. So it is very likely inflation will remain well under the the Fed's targeted rate of 2%.

Actually from their peak of [Math Processing Error]35 per barrel is exactly only 25% of the peak. As is well known if you owe the bank $500 and can't pay it you are in big trouble, but if the banks are owed 500 billion and can't collect it, the banks (and economic system) are in big trouble.

Well, 500 billion dollars isn't that much in the overall scheme of things. Remember, the US economy is 18 trillion dollars strong. This isn't a systemic problem. It's not the kind of systemic problem we faced in 2007-2009. Banks are stronger, they have been recapitalized, and they are better regulated. They have planned for defaults (e.g. stress tests). So while if will be a rocky ride as markets seek new equilibrium prices for oil and as the Fed induced rate increase causes a repricing of all assets, and some companies will go into default, it isn't the end of the world.

On the good side, I love refiners. This is a good time to own refiners like Northern Tier Energy, because their biggest cost is oil. As oil prices decline, these companies have been making money hand over fist. And let's remember, lower oil prices are good for consumers. Consumers will benefit from lower oil prices. I purchased gas yesterday for a 1.47 dollars a gallon. I think this Christmas will be brighter this year for many people because gasoline prices have gone for 3+ dollars and to 1+ dollars a gallon. Lower oil and natural gas prices are very good news for consumers. Lower oil prices is the reason why inflation this year is zero.

Here is one more wrinkle, low stock prices lower the value of consumer savings. How much lower stock prices will affect consumer spending is an unknown. It may well cancel out any added benefit derived through lower oil prices. And we will not know that until near or after Christmas. So it is something that needs to be watched. But in driving around, it seems to me consumers seem to be out in force this year. More Christmas lights are up, more than I have seen in some time. So it's an open question.

Unfortunately this year equity markets have been beaten by international events and worries of a Fed interest rate increase. Those worries may extend into next year, though I hope not. The problems in the oil patch will eventually stabilize, an equilibrium will be found and the more leveraged firms will be weeded out. But oil prices will remain low for a very long time. Iran is very anxious to sell oil. The Saudi's want to drive out US shale production and that won't happen overnight. It will take years. They may stop more shale fields from being developed, but there are plenty of newly drilled and production wells which will last for years. And then there is the matter of new technologies like the internet of things which will lessen the need for oil. That's more trouble for oil producers like Russia, but very good news for consumers around the globe.

So yeah, there is some bad news. But there is a lot of good news too, if you are not an oil producer or hold oil producer debt. It isn't the end of the world.
 
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What matters is that Roosevelt has reached what he wanted - Supreme Court approval for the New Deal. That he has reached this result, was shown by the time table in my reference.

Well if you had paid attention to your references, you would have noticed most of Roosevelt's New Deal were put into place without intervention of the US Supreme Court and before the bill you referenced.

The bottom line here is you want to cherry pick and misrepresent US history in order to further your dishonesty. The unfortunate fact for you is the US is a country with a very long history of the rule of law. Roosevelt never once failed to obey the rule of law. That's the unfortunate fact you want to avoid comrade.

Which you claim without evidence. I have made the symmetric claim, and given some evidence.

Without evidence....? The World Justice Project rates Mother Russia near the bottom of its Rule of Law Index. Mother Russia scores 77 out of 102 countries.

http://data.worldjusticeproject.org/
http://www.ibanet.org/Article/Detail.aspx?ArticleUid=f81c9310-243a-40a9-8a95-6506cb7f96fe
https://media.law.wisc.edu/m/zgyzz/russian_style_rol.pdf

And there is much more.

Given that I also claim that the Supreme Court consist of people chosen to support what is shared by above parties, namely the wish for a big central state, so that they will not defend the constitution against the Big Central State, it is clear that this evidence cannot be a decision of the Supreme Court, but is necessarily restricted to the opinion of the people, who see contradictions between some actual laws and the constitution.

Do you seriously think any of that makes any kind of sense?

And to judge if the contradictions mentioned in http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html are really contradictions or not everybody has to evaluate himself. Except you, of course, because you trust the judges completely, once all the politicians in power have chosen them.

Well as as been repeatedly pointed out to you, this isn't Mother Russia. Just because someone or a group of people say things, it doesn't make them true. That's why we have this thing called due process of law to determine the truth. If these individuals truly feel aggrieved, they have recourse through the court system to prove the veracity of their claims. Since that has not happened, one has to doubt the veracity of their claims. And frankly, their arguments just don't hold water, that's probably why they haven't filed any court actions.
 
Except, that isn't the "problem" and that isn't the issue. The issues are a supply glut and too much oil company debt. It isn't because new oil sources are more expensive, because in large part they are not. Oil prices are low because too much oil is being produced. What has happened is many oil companies, especially smaller oil companies, have borrowed heavily in anticipation of high oil prices remaining intact. Now those companies are stuck between a rock and a hard place, because oil prices have fallen due to increased global oil production and OPEC's failure to lower global production and some oil companies will most likely be driven into default (e.g. Magnum Hunter).

Last Friday, a large high risk debt mutual fund limited withdrawals because it was being forced to sell its high risk debt holdings and it was destroying high risk debt pricing. That was followed by a hedge fund which took similar measures. The most disturbing to investors was the mutual fund. One of the advantages of mutual funds is liquidity.

Now let's look at the impact, who will be hurt? First, oil companies, some of them will be driven into default. Some will be bought out, others will go into receivership and be reorganized and will eventually come out healthier companies. If you own their debt or their stock, you are screwed. Stock holders will likely lose their entire investment. Debt holders will likely lose something less, but will still take some heavy losses.

The concern here is banking. How much of that oil company debt is held by banks? And I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question yet. And uncertainty isn't good for stocks. So this week will likely be a rocky road for stockholders, especially when you consider the Fed has pretty much all but committed to a rate increase this year and some would probably say they have committed to a rate increase.

I would say given the Fed's statements, the Fed seems to be focused mostly on the US unemployment rate. The Fed's probably too focused on the US unemployment rate. But if the Fed raises interest rates this week as expected and begins a tightening cycle, I think, based on current economic data, it will be a very slow tightening cycle. I'm guessing a 100 basis points per year (i.e. 1% per year) for the next three years. So, any rate increases will likely be slow and small. As I have previously stated, if the Fed raises rates this year, I think it is premature. But a quarter rate rate increase isn't the end of the world either. Believe it or not, there was a time when Fed rate increases were rather commonplace. :) Now we act as if it were the end of the world. We have not had one for nearly a decade. The Fed only increases debt when it thinks the economy is growing too fast or may grow to fast.

Right now the core inflation rate is 1.2 percent. The core rate is a good predictor of future inflation rate one year out. So it is very likely inflation will remain well under the the Fed's targeted rate of 2%.
first of "LIKE". and second-- do not forget how the fed charges other countries for printing paper, and those other county's paper being held by the fed, then the fed charges to convert into their own currency(cross rates).



Well, 500 billion dollars isn't that much in the overall scheme of things. Remember, the US economy is 18 trillion dollars strong. This isn't a systemic problem. It's not the kind of systemic problem we faced in 2007-2009. Banks are stronger, they have been recapitalized, and they are better regulated. They have planned for defaults (e.g. stress tests). So while if will be a rocky ride as markets seek new equilibrium prices for oil and as the Fed induced rate increase causes a repricing of all assets, and some companies will go into default, it isn't the end of the world.

On the good side, I love refiners. This is a good time to own refiners like Northern Tier Energy, because their biggest cost is oil. As oil prices decline, these companies have been making money hand over fist. And let's remember, lower oil prices are good for consumers. Consumers will benefit from lower oil prices. I purchased gas yesterday for a 1.47 dollars a gallon. I think this Christmas will be brighter this year for many people because gasoline prices have gone for 3+ dollars and to 1+ dollars a gallon. Lower oil and natural gas prices are very good news for consumers. Lower oil prices is the reason why inflation this year is zero.

Here is one more wrinkle, low stock prices lower the value of consumer savings. How much lower stock prices will affect consumer spending is an unknown. It may well cancel out any added benefit derived through lower oil prices. And we will not know that until near or after Christmas. So it is something that needs to be watched. But in driving around, it seems to me consumers seem to be out in force this year. More Christmas lights are up, more than I have seen in some time. So it's an open question.

Unfortunately this year equity markets have been beaten by international events and worries of a Fed interest rate increase. Those worries may extend into next year, though I hope not. The problems in the oil patch will eventually stabilize, an equilibrium will be found and the more leveraged firms will be weeded out. But oil prices will remain low for a very long time. Iran is very anxious to sell oil. The Saudi's want to drive out US shale production and that won't happen overnight. It will take years. They may stop more shale fields from being developed, but there are plenty of newly drilled and production wells which will last for years. And then there is the matter of new technologies like the internet of things which will lessen the need for oil. That's more trouble for oil producers like Russia, but very good news for consumers around the globe.

So yeah, there is some bad news. But there is a lot of good news too, if you are not an oil producer or hold oil producer debt. It isn't the end of the world.
"like"
 
If you had read your Wiki article, you should know that the Judicial Procedures Reform Bill which would have changed the way judges are appointed and created 1 new Supreme Court Justice and it wasn't untoward nor was it in any way unconstitutional and it failed. Congress didn't pass the bill, so the judicial appointment process remained unchanged...oops. :)



Hmm...and why is that exactly? Do you even know what the Patriot Act was? Just what provisions of the Patriot Act do you so abhorrent? Do you know what the US Constitution is or what is contained within the US Constitution? Obviously you don't. Because if you did, you wouldn't make such a blatantly ignorant statement unless of course you are deliberately lying. :)

Unlike in your beloved Mother Russia the American governing documents aren't toilet paper. They are respected. They are debated and discussed. Due process of law means something and is highly valued even when it isn't convenient to do so. That's one reason why, unlike in your beloved Mother Russia, dissidents in the US are not executed, jailed, and stripped of their personal wealth in the US for dissenting. That's one reason why Russian oligarchs like to stash their wealth in Western countries like the US.
As if it wasn't obvious, your argument doesn't hold water. You raised the issue, do you not remember? The unpleasant fact for you is neither of the two examples you raised disprove the fact that the US is a country of laws and the US Constitution is the basis for all US law.



Yes, why would you care about this particular bill, you referenced it...oops. :) What matters is that bill was legal, it was constitutional, and it failed to pass congress. Just because the Supreme Court rules in favor of the president, it doesn't make it illegal. Further, the Supreme Court didn't reverse previous rulings related to the New Deal.

FDR eventually was able to appoint, per the US Constitution, a new Supreme Court justice when a conservative justice retired. Another justice began issuing more liberal decisions whereas before he was swing vote on the court. As a swing vote he previously voted for or against the conservative wing of the court. Later in his career he began consistently issuing liberal opinions. Those two changes on the court made the court liberal wing of the court more powerful and more in line with FDR's views. It was all constitutional. What matters is your argument doesn't hold water. For someone how knows so much about the US, you no so very little about the US or is it just a case of dishonesty?



What I feel about the Patriot Act doesn't matter. What matters is its constitutionality and your ability to show that it is unpatriotic. You raised it as an issue. The Patriot Act isn't proof the US doesn't honor and obey its constitution. That's the unfortunate fact for you.

This gets back to your chronic inability to back up your assertions with evidence.
Except, that isn't the "problem" and that isn't the issue. The issues are a supply glut and too much oil company debt. It isn't because new oil sources are more expensive, because in large part they are not. Oil prices are low because too much oil is being produced. What has happened is many oil companies, especially smaller oil companies, have borrowed heavily in anticipation of high oil prices remaining intact. Now those companies are stuck between a rock and a hard place, because oil prices have fallen due to increased global oil production and OPEC's failure to lower global production and some oil companies will most likely be driven into default (e.g. Magnum Hunter).

Last Friday, a large high risk debt mutual fund limited withdrawals because it was being forced to sell its high risk debt holdings and it was destroying high risk debt pricing. That was followed by a hedge fund which took similar measures. The most disturbing to investors was the mutual fund. One of the advantages of mutual funds is liquidity.

Now let's look at the impact, who will be hurt? First, oil companies, some of them will be driven into default. Some will be bought out, others will go into receivership and be reorganized and will eventually come out healthier companies. If you own their debt or their stock, you are screwed. Stock holders will likely lose their entire investment. Debt holders will likely lose something less, but will still take some heavy losses.

The concern here is banking. How much of that oil company debt is held by banks? And I don't think anyone knows the answer to that question yet. And uncertainty isn't good for stocks. So this week will likely be a rocky road for stockholders, especially when you consider the Fed has pretty much all but committed to a rate increase this year and some would probably say they have committed to a rate increase.

I would say given the Fed's statements, the Fed seems to be focused mostly on the US unemployment rate. The Fed's probably too focused on the US unemployment rate. But if the Fed raises interest rates this week as expected and begins a tightening cycle, I think, based on current economic data, it will be a very slow tightening cycle. I'm guessing a 100 basis points per year (i.e. 1% per year) for the next three years. So, any rate increases will likely be slow and small. As I have previously stated, if the Fed raises rates this year, I think it is premature. But a quarter rate rate increase isn't the end of the world either. Believe it or not, there was a time when Fed rate increases were rather commonplace. :) Now we act as if it were the end of the world. We have not had one for nearly a decade. The Fed only increases debt when it thinks the economy is growing too fast or may grow to fast.

Right now the core inflation rate is 1.2 percent. The core rate is a good predictor of future inflation rate one year out. So it is very likely inflation will remain well under the the Fed's targeted rate of 2%.



Well, 500 billion dollars isn't that much in the overall scheme of things. Remember, the US economy is 18 trillion dollars strong. This isn't a systemic problem. It's not the kind of systemic problem we faced in 2007-2009. Banks are stronger, they have been recapitalized, and they are better regulated. They have planned for defaults (e.g. stress tests). So while if will be a rocky ride as markets seek new equilibrium prices for oil and as the Fed induced rate increase causes a repricing of all assets, and some companies will go into default, it isn't the end of the world.

On the good side, I love refiners. This is a good time to own refiners like Northern Tier Energy, because their biggest cost is oil. As oil prices decline, these companies have been making money hand over fist. And let's remember, lower oil prices are good for consumers. Consumers will benefit from lower oil prices. I purchased gas yesterday for a 1.47 dollars a gallon. I think this Christmas will be brighter this year for many people because gasoline prices have gone for 3+ dollars and to 1+ dollars a gallon. Lower oil and natural gas prices are very good news for consumers. Lower oil prices is the reason why inflation this year is zero.

Here is one more wrinkle, low stock prices lower the value of consumer savings. How much lower stock prices will affect consumer spending is an unknown. It may well cancel out any added benefit derived through lower oil prices. And we will not know that until near or after Christmas. So it is something that needs to be watched. But in driving around, it seems to me consumers seem to be out in force this year. More Christmas lights are up, more than I have seen in some time. So it's an open question.

Unfortunately this year equity markets have been beaten by international events and worries of a Fed interest rate increase. Those worries may extend into next year, though I hope not. The problems in the oil patch will eventually stabilize, an equilibrium will be found and the more leveraged firms will be weeded out. But oil prices will remain low for a very long time. Iran is very anxious to sell oil. The Saudi's want to drive out US shale production and that won't happen overnight. It will take years. They may stop more shale fields from being developed, but there are plenty of newly drilled and production wells which will last for years. And then there is the matter of new technologies like the internet of things which will lessen the need for oil. That's more trouble for oil producers like Russia, but very good news for consumers around the globe.

So yeah, there is some bad news. But there is a lot of good news too, if you are not an oil producer or hold oil producer debt. It isn't the end of the world.
Thanks for the thoughtful analysis. Sounds like BT got buffaloed by Futilist.
 
Well if you had paid attention to your references, you would have noticed most of Roosevelt's New Deal were put into place without intervention of the US Supreme Court and before the bill you referenced.
The point being? If the court does not intervene, Roosevelt has not problem. But there have been some intervention before 1936. And this was, of course, a problem. I admit I don't know how serious this problem was, how important were the interventions for the whole New Deal game. Whatever, the point is that later this problem disappeared.
Without evidence....? The World Justice Project rates Mother Russia near the bottom of its Rule of Law Index. Mother Russia scores 77 out of 102 countries.
http://data.worldjusticeproject.org/
http://www.ibanet.org/Article/Detail.aspx?ArticleUid=f81c9310-243a-40a9-8a95-6506cb7f96fe

And there is much more.
There are much more NATO propaganda sources, of course. But, ok, let's see, even propaganda sources sometimes contain useful information. https://media.law.wisc.edu/m/zgyzz/russian_style_rol.pdf presents the Chodorkowski case as "the most notorious example" of Russia not being a state of law. Of course, there is no doubt that Russia at the Yelzin time, when oligarchs like Chodorkowski ruled, was a mafia state, Chodorkowski has liked to see his opponents murdered at his birthday. Then Putin came, and this mafia boss ended in prison, and what he has stolen was confiscated. And the West whines about the horrible court system which allowed to imprison their beloved Chodorkowski.

In fact, this case remembers the American way of fighting with the mafia, were Al Capone was sued for tax evasion instead of his murders, because even if these murders were well-known, it was not possible to prove them. Same case here, everybody in Russia has known about the birthday present for Chodorkowski (murder of the major of an oil town who has organized mass demonstrations against Chodorkowski) but to prove this in court is not that easy. So he was sued for some more harmless things which could be proven. Instead of convicting him for murder, which would have been just (nobody doubts that murder was part of what all oligarchs have done) but without sufficient proof in that particular case.

Just to clarify some points: Russia was not really a state of law nor in the tsarist past, even much less in Soviet time, and even if during the mafia rule (Yelzin time) there was a little more "state of law" in comparison with Soviet rule, it was simply corrupt mafia rule, where for 30 000 $ you could get rid of every legal investigation. Instead, the American tradition was much better, I would really like to have a court system comparable to that of the US around 1800, that of 1900 would be fine too (I would have, of course, objections about the laws themself, but this is a different problem).

But if one evaluates what actual politicians are worth, one should evaluate what changes. Is there, now, more rule of law as before, or less? Is the country moving toward rule of law or away from it? Even if this movement toward a state of law would be close to ideal, it would be stupid to expect that some 25 years after the end of totalitarian law and 15 years after mafia rule one can create an ideal state of law. Let's add that Putin had, in his first years, to win two wars - the Chechen war and the war against the mafia rulers like Chodorkowski - and times of war are usually not times where rule of law is increasing.

So what is the result of Putin's rule? Let's look at what is claimed by the source https://media.law.wisc.edu/m/zgyzz/russian_style_rol.pdf you have postet:
Over the past two decades, with surprisingly little fanfare, the legislative base and institutional infrastructure of the Russian legal system have undergone a remarkable transformation. Citizens’ access to the legal system has been enhanced through the introduction of justice-of-the-peace courts (mirovye sudy), which have absorbed the bulk of simple cases, freeing up other courts to devote attention to more complicated cases. Thanks to the internet, information about the substance of law and the activities of courts at all levels is increasingly transparent. Not coincidentally, Russians’ use of the courts has grown dramatically. The number of civil (noncriminal) cases has doubled over the past decade. ... .
And if one omits some propaganda language (standard exercise if one wants to extract some truth from propaganda sources) one finds that:
The dual legal system that has evolved in Russia — in which the courts can be relied on to handle mundane cases ... does provide [some] predictability that lies at the heart of the rule of law
Your reaction to this quote is predictable, of type "this is what you have omitted". Let's see:
but are likely to bow to the will of the powerful in touchier cases—is a far cry from the rule-of-law–based state that was the initial goal.
The claim is about what is bad is hidden behind a diffuse "likely" - nothing but a personal opinion of a US state paid propagandist.

But in this case I do not really object - Russia is yet far away from an ideal state of law. But it moves in the right direction. Which is all one can expect. On the other hand, the US is also far away from an ideal state of law. Unfortunately, it moves in the wrong direction. Secret laws, controlled by secret courts, would have been impossible in the US 1900 (correct me if I'm wrong). But after 9/11 they appeared. And there seems to be not much resistance.
Just because someone or a group of people say things, it doesn't make them true.
Learn to read. I have not even claimed that everything what is written in this link is true. I have made the point that everybody has to evaluate the content himself, and to decide himself if what they say is true.

You behave like a small child, who needs parents to tell them what is true. So, you interpret the sources I give in a similar way - as if I would tell you that you have to believe what the source claims. But adults always decide themself what they believe. My source http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html contains quotes from Patriot, and quotes from the constitution, and claims that there are contradictions. Decide yourself. Check yourself if the quotes are correct.

If these individuals truly feel aggrieved, they have recourse through the court system to prove the veracity of their claims. Since that has not happened, one has to doubt the veracity of their claims.
Sorry, but to use the court system you need a lot of money. And if you don't trust this court system, this would be stupid. I see quite obvious contradictions - see yourself. If these guys don't try the legal courts, in such IMHO obvious contradictions, it simply means that they don't trust these courts. Which is in full agreement with my expectations. I would also consider attempts to go to Supreme Court as throwing away a lot of money.
The World Justice Project rates Mother Russia near the bottom of its Rule of Law Index. Mother Russia scores 77 out of 102 countries.
http://data.worldjusticeproject.org/
LOL, yet another propaganda rating. My personal justice project rates Uncle Sam at the total bottom of my personal Rule of Justice Index, without even nearby competitors. Russia is also quite low on this index. An important part of my personal justice index is the overall incarceration rate.
File:Prisoner_population_rate_world_map.svg
Of course, it is only a rough approximation. There may be countries where the population is more criminal, thus, a just system would incarcerate more people. There may be countries where too much criminals go unpunished. Whatever, it is a reasonable first approximation: The lower the rate of incarceration in general, the better. And, once in our world all cultures manage to have states with incarceration rates below 100, one can be sure that a reasonable just system of justice can manage incarceration rates below 100/100 000, and that higher rates suggest a large part of incarcerated people which would be free in a just system.
 
The point being? If the court does not intervene, Roosevelt has not problem. But there have been some intervention before 1936. And this was, of course, a problem. I admit I don't know how serious this problem was, how important were the interventions for the whole New Deal game. Whatever, the point is that later this problem disappeared.


As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, this isn’t Mother Russia. The court doesn’t intervene. YOU seem to have a great deal of difficulty understand that. The courts merely rule on the constitutionality of a law if they are requested to do so…nothing more and nothing less.


The point being, as has been repeatedly pointed out to you, your argument doesn’t hold water. The New Deal was a series of laws which were enacted during the Great Recession. Some of those laws were challenged and some were found constitutional and some were not. Just because the members of the court change, it doesn’t follow that prior court rulings also change. You see, in the world of rule of law, there is this notion of stare decisis. It means prior decisions are respected and honored, precedent matters, any changes to the court composition doesn’t change prior court rulings.


The unfortunate fact which you want to ignore is Roosevelt followed the law. There was nothing untoward in anything he did. Roosevelt followed the constitution.



There are much more NATO propaganda sources, of course. But, ok, let's see, even propaganda sources sometimes contain useful information. https://media.law.wisc.edu/m/zgyzz/russian_style_rol.pdf presents the Chodorkowski case as "the most notorious example" of Russia not being a state of law. Of course, there is no doubt that Russia at the Yelzin time, when oligarchs like Chodorkowski ruled, was a mafia state, Chodorkowski has liked to see his opponents murdered at his birthday. Then Putin came, and this mafia boss ended in prison, and what he has stolen was confiscated. And the West whines about the horrible court system which allowed to imprison their beloved Chodorkowski.


As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, your labeling unpleasant facts as “NATO PROPAGANDA” rather than addressing them rationally is just a way for you to dismiss the many unpleasant facts you need to dismiss in order to attempt to make your case.


The fact is all the media groups, the institutions of higher learning you summarily dismiss as NATAO propaganda aren’t propaganda nor are they in any way related to NATO. Yet you automatically and mindlessly accept as gospel anything the Russian state tells you. The fact is, as evidenced by prior references, the rule of law doesn’t exist in Mother Russia.
 
There In fact, this case remembers the American way of fighting with the mafia, were Al Capone was sued for tax evasion instead of his murders, because even if these murders were well-known, it was not possible to prove them. Same case here, everybody in Russia has known about the birthday present for Chodorkowski (murder of the major of an oil town who has organized mass demonstrations against Chodorkowski) but to prove this in court is not that easy. So he was sued for some more harmless things which could be proven. Instead of convicting him for murder, which would have been just (nobody doubts that murder was part of what all oligarchs have done) but without sufficient proof in that particular case.



But if one evaluates what actual politicians are worth, one should evaluate what changes. Is there, now, more rule of law as before, or less? Is the country moving toward rule of law or away from it? Even if this movement toward a state of law would be close to ideal, it would be stupid to expect that some 25 years after the end of totalitarian law and 15 years after mafia rule one can create an ideal state of law. Let's add that Putin had, in his first years, to win two wars - the Chechen war and the war against the mafia rulers like Chodorkowski - and times of war are usually not times where rule of law is increasing.


So what is the result of Putin's rule? Let's look at what is claimed by the source https://media.law.wisc.edu/m/zgyzz/russian_style_rol.pdf you have postet:


And if one omits some propaganda language (standard exercise if one wants to extract some truth from propaganda sources) one finds that:


Your reaction to this quote is predictable, of type "this is what you have omitted". Let's see: The claim is about what is bad is hidden behind a diffuse "likely" - nothing but a personal opinion of a US state paid propagandist.


But in this case I do not really object - Russia is yet far away from an ideal state of law. But it moves in the right direction. Which is all one can expect. On the other hand, the US is also far away from an ideal state of law. Unfortunately, it moves in the wrong direction. Secret laws, controlled by secret courts, would have been impossible in the US 1900 (correct me if I'm wrong). But after 9/11 they appeared. And there seems to be not much resistance.


Learn to read. I have not even claimed that everything what is written in this link is true. I have made the point that everybody has to evaluate the content himself, and to decide himself if what they say is true.


You behave like a small child, who needs parents to tell them what is true. So, you interpret the sources I give in a similar way - as if I would tell you that you have to believe what the source claims. But adults always decide themself what they believe. My source http://www.scn.org/ccapa/pa-vs-const.html contains quotes from Patriot, and quotes from the constitution, and claims that there are contradictions. Decide yourself. Check yourself if the quotes are correct.



Sorry, but to use the court system you need a lot of money. And if you don't trust this court system, this would be stupid. I see quite obvious contradictions - see yourself. If these guys don't try the legal courts, in such IMHO obvious contradictions, it simply means that they don't trust these courts. Which is in full agreement with my expectations. I would also consider attempts to go to Supreme Court as throwing away a lot of money.


LOL, yet another propaganda rating. My personal justice project rates Uncle Sam at the total bottom of my personal Rule of Justice Index, without even nearby competitors. Russia is also quite low on this index. An important part of my personal justice index is the overall incarceration rate. Of course, it is only a rough approximation. There may be countries where the population is more criminal, thus, a just system would incarcerate more people. There may be countries where too much criminals go unpunished. Whatever, it is a reasonable first approximation: The lower the rate of incarceration in general, the better. And, once in our world all cultures manage to have states with incarceration rates below 100, one can be sure that a reasonable just system of justice can manage incarceration rates below 100/100 000, and that higher rates suggest a large part of incarcerated people which would be free in a just system.


What a tirade, it’s a turd dump. You are yet again obfuscating. The unfortunate fact for you is the rule of law is an alien concept in Mother Russia. Russia doesn’t have the rule of law. The law is whatever the dictator, in this case, Putin, says it is at any point in time. The fact is there are many independent sources which prove that to be the case and your dislike of reality doesn't make them NATO propaganda.
 
... As has been repeatedly pointed out to you, your labeling unpleasant facts as “CHINESE PROPAGANDA” rather than addressing them rationally is just a way for you to dismiss the many unpleasant facts you need to dismiss in order to attempt to make your case. ...
Excuse me for changing the two all caps words. I wanted to save this, as have had need of it many times, when you dismiss facts (plagarized or requoted from Western original sources by ChinaDaily). I quote ChinaDaily as I first noticed the facts there as I read it daily.
 
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